MLB Bets 2026-08-09

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	959W–465L–0P	67%	-56.98 u	Last 14 days • 1424 settled
Grade A	23W–29L–0P	44%	-12.17 u
Grade B	935W–431L–0P	68%	-41.09 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3309W–2100L–8P	61%	-210.32 u	All-time • 5417 settled
Grade A	252W–197L–0P	56%	-8.20 u
Grade B	3056W–1898L–8P	62%	-198.40 u

123 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter H+R+RBI	Andy Pages	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter H+R+RBI	Bryce Harper	1.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter H+R+RBI	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter H+R+RBI	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-141	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter H+R+RBI	Luis Arraez	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter H+R+RBI	Otto Lopez	1.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter H+R+RBI	Trea Turner	1.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Austin Riley	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Bo Bichette	0.5	-464	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Brandon Nimmo	0.5	-254	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Brayan Rocchio	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Cameron Cauley	0.5	-389	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Carlos Narvaez	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0.5	-386	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Coby Mayo	0.5	-362	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Colton Cowser	0.5	-233	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Corey Seager	0.5	-187	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Daylen Lile	0.5	-319	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Dillon Dingler	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Dylan Beavers	0.5	-202	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Elias Diaz	0.5	-405	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Evan Carter	0.5	-215	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Duran	0.5	-304	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Jac Caglianone	0.5	-456	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Jackson Holliday	0.5	-227	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-319	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Jake McCarthy	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Justin Foscue	0.5	-334	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Leody Taveras	0.5	-262	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Luis Garcia Jr.	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-421	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-369	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Ozzie Albies	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Salvador Perez	0.5	-438	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Willi Castro	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Wyatt Langford	0.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	F5 ML	Athletics	-	172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	K Prop	Grayson Rodriguez	5.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	K Prop	Jacob Misiorowski	8.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	K Prop	Joey Cantillo	5.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	K Prop	Logan Webb	4.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	K Prop	Troy Melton	4.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Cam Schlittler	2.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Cristian Javier	2.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Grayson Rodriguez	2.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Earned Run	JT Ginn	3.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Joey Cantillo	2.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Randy Dobnak	3.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Troy Melton	2.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jesus Luzardo	5.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jesús Luzardo	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Hits Allow	Randy Dobnak	5.5	111	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Outs	Grayson Rodriguez	17.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Outs	Jacob Misiorowski	17.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Walks	Brady Singer	1.5	-181	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Walks	Cade Povich	1.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Walks	Grayson Rodriguez	1.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Walks	Kumar Rocker	1.5	-176	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Walks	Michael McGreevy	1.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Walks	Shane Bieber	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Run Line	Arizona Diamondbacks	+1.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Run Line	Kansas City Royals	+1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Total	Over	8.0	-115	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-08	K Prop	Gavin Williams	7.5	-122	-	LOSS	-1.000	Gavin Williams: 7.0 (line 7.5)
2026-08-08	K Prop	Chris Sale	7.5	-137	-	WIN	+0.730	Chris Sale: 8.0 (line 7.5)
2026-08-08	K Prop	Gerrit Cole	5.5	-120	-	WIN	+0.833	Gerrit Cole: 9.0 (line 5.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	532	55%	-18.05u	66	45%	-14.07u	251	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	474	58%	+12.59u	64	59%	+1.76u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	163	58%	+6.69u	18	83%	+7.89u	44	64%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1720	74%	-34.80u	816	74%	-29.92u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	539	56%	-26.58u	115	53%	-11.48u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	397	60%	-10.68u	84	65%	+5.66u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	53	70%	-0.98u	12	42%	-5.06u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	34	53%	-0.50u	2	50%	-0.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	4	25%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	2
YRFI	👀 WATCH	3	67%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	4
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	118	47%	-12.88u	8	62%	+0.79u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	58	40%	-10.94u	5	40%	-1.20u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	29	55%	-1.07u	21	57%	-0.03u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	582	52%	-57.17u	67	52%	-6.33u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 5 actionable / 25 total candidate(s); season N 532, 14d N 66	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 15 total candidate(s); season N 474, 14d N 64	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 163, 14d N 18	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 27 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 27/27 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 28 total candidate(s); season N 53, 14d N 12	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 225 total candidate(s); season N 34, 14d N 2	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 1 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 2 actionable / 14 total candidate(s); season N 118, 14d N 8	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 58, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 29, 14d N 21	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 8 actionable / 135 total candidate(s); season N 582, 14d N 67	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 135 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 787 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 224 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 764 pitcher(s), 3375 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 576 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 27 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 27 SP matchup(s), 919 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 390 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Baltimore Orioles, New York Mets, Arizona Diamondbacks, Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins, Kansas City Royals, Philadelphia Phillies, Cleveland Guardians, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels, San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta Braves, Toronto Blue Jays
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta Braves, Toronto Blue Jays
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 24 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 337 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 14/14 game(s) with pitching props \| K 27 line(s)/13 game(s); Outs 28 line(s)/14 game(s); Hits Allowed 23 line(s)/14 game(s); Walks 12 line(s)/7 game(s); Earned Runs 22 line(s)/14 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 94, fanatics 13, bovada_direct 5
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2552 market side(s) checked \| 2552 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 14 game(s) fetched \| 14 with ML odds \| 14 with total odds \| 3 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 135 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 14 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 625 \| batter bats 398 \| batter hand splits 142 \| pitcher HR splits 58 \| batter pitch-type 576 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 222 batter(s) scored \| 14 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	Probability shadow unavailable: [Errno 2] No such file or directory: '/home/runner/work/mlb-picks/mlb-picks/artifacts/probability_calibration.json'

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	12:16 PM	-108	+101	-1.5 (+142)	1.5 (-172)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	1:35 PM	+218	-236	1.5 (+113)	-1.5 (-136)	O/U 10.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	1:35 PM	+132	-142	1.5 (-167)	-1.5 (+138)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	1:35 PM	+128	-137	1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:36 PM	+179	-192	1.5 (-127)	-1.5 (+105)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	1:40 PM	+132	-142	1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	2:10 PM	-152	+142	-1.5 (+101)	1.5 (-121)	O/U 10.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	2:10 PM	-105	-102	-1.5 (+149)	1.5 (-181)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:10 PM	+228	-247	1.5 (-105)	-1.5 (-115)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	+147	-158	1.5 (-144)	-1.5 (+120)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	2:35 PM	+121	-130	1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	4:05 PM	-120	+100	-1.5 (+144)	1.5 (-175)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:10 PM	-150	+124	-1.5 (+118)	1.5 (-142)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	8:20 PM	+105	-126	1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

3 Grade A | 68 Grade B | 876 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -162	K Prop	Troy Melton Over	TIG@GIA	4:05 PM	4.5	6.0	-162	FanDuel Over 4.5 -140 \| best price	33.7%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal A-tier prop gate: 67% consensus; needs diff_pct >= 21.3% and raw gap >= 1.00 for Grade A (got 17.5%, 1.49)	K Prop	Jacob Misiorowski Over	TWI@BRE	2:10 PM	8.5	10.0	-134	BetOnline Over 8.5 -108 \| best price	17.5%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal	Run Line	Kansas City Royals +1.5	CUB@ROY	2:10 PM	1.5	-	-121	LowVig Kansas City Royals 1.5 -112 \| best price	+15.8%	–✓✓✓–✓	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (33 play(s))

Total - Over 8.0

Projection: -Displayed: Over 8 -115Market line: majority 8.5 | avg N/ARecommended: BetRivers Over 8 -109 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8Selected market: N/A

Selected line 8 is split from majority 8.5 / avg N/A

Pitcher Earned Runs - Jesus Luzardo Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter Hits - Tommy Edman Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Ivan Herrera Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Colson Montgomery Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Braden Montgomery Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Nick Loftin Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - George Lombard Jr. Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Ryan McMahon Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Spencer Jones Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Christian Yelich Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Luis Robert Jr. Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Petey Halpin Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Luisangel Acuna Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Munetaka Murakami Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Patrick Bailey Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Randal Grichuk Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Brenton Doyle Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Myles Straw Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Justin Crawford Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Ozzie Albies Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jared Young Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Travis Bazzana Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Chase Meidroth Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

⭐ Featured Signals - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Troy Melton Over 4.5 (-162) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -162

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-162	+127	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	-150	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 33.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.52K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.4% / under 41.6%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Troy Melton: K/9 8.5, proj 6.0K over 6.0 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 20.6% | xwOBA 0.275 | top pitch: Split-Finger (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.8%, L7 22.0%, season 20.9% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 9/12 (75%) | Season 9/12 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
K% trend: support +4.6 ppts (recent 27.1% vs season 22.5%, proj adj +2.3%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -162 -- A-grade risk note

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Jacob Misiorowski Over 8.5 (-134) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 8.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 -134

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 8.5 | selected line 8.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 8.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 8.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	8.5	-108	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	8.5	-120	-110	-
DK	8.5	-134	+105	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	-120	-106	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 10.0K vs line 8.5; DIFF% 17.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.49K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.0% / under 46.0%); own-line consensus 2/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jacob Misiorowski: K/9 14.5, proj 10.0K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 38.5% | put-away% 32.5% | xwOBA 0.215 | top pitch: Curveball (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Curveball: 31.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 18.1%, L7 17.4%, season 21.3% (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 8.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 9.50 | Season Avg 9.29
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 8.5
K% trend: support +6.5 ppts (recent 47.1% vs season 40.6%, proj adj +3.2%)

⚠ A-tier prop gate: 67% consensus; needs diff_pct >= 21.3% and raw gap >= 1.00 for Grade A (got 17.5%, 1.49) -- A-grade risk note

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -134, pitch-type boost on 10% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal Run Line — Kansas City Royals +1.5 1.5 (-121) edge 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Kansas City Royals 1.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -121

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Kansas City Royals 1.5 -112 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓✓–✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (26)

[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 13 mph OUT (SSE) -- run total UP
Model run margin: -0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+24.47/$100
✓ Cover prob 68.1% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 15.8% ≥ 5%
✓ Kansas City Royals home RL 71% (7 bets)
✓ L5 RL 5/5
✓ Odds -121 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Randy Dobnak (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.98)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 99)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 104)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.8
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.08, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 13 mph OUT (SSE) -- run total UP
Randy Dobnak small sample (31 IP) — stats 38% actual / 62% league avg (regression applied)

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (68 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Joey Cantillo Over 5.5 (-123) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -123

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-127	-102	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-123	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-128	+100	-
Fanatics	5.5	-125	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 32.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.80K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.1% / under 47.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Joey Cantillo: K/9 11.0, proj 7.3K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.6% | put-away% 21.9% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Changeup (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 30.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Joey Cantillo: 27 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .259 | OPS .704
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.4%, split 21.3%, L7 30.2%, season 24.0%, BVP 33.3%/27 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 5.38
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.22 vs season
K% trend: support +5.6 ppts (recent 30.6% vs season 25.0%, proj adj +2.8%)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.80K, diff 32.7%, books 100%)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Logan Webb Over 4.5 (-163) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -163

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-165	+125	-
DK	4.5	-163	+128	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-162	+126	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 31.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.40K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.6% / under 41.4%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Logan Webb: K/9 7.0, proj 5.9K over 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.0% | put-away% 18.5% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Changeup: 34.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 53 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .225 | OPS .691
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.1%, L7 20.1%, season 22.6%, BVP 32.1%/53 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -163 -- retained at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.40K, diff 31.0%, books 100%)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-140) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+110	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 26.9% vs 17% min; cushion -1.48K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 0/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Grayson Rodriguez: K/9 7.3, proj 4.0K over 5.0 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 13.7% | xwOBA 0.399 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Changeup: 38.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 18.7%, L7 18.8%, season 21.5% (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.82
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Grayson Rodriguez Under 17.5 (-133) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	17.5	-110	-121	-
DK	17.5	+100	-133	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 12.067 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 31.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 4.6 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.3 IP (xFIP 4.71 vs lg 4.20); projected 4.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 84)
Outs projection components: baseline 4.6 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 4.7 | pitch-count proxy 84
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 18.7%, L7 18.8%, season 21.5% (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 9.9%, L7 9.2%, season 8.9% (adj 1.06x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 4.6 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 10/11 (91%) | Season 10/11 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 14.20 | Season Avg 13.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Jacob Misiorowski Over 17.5 (-207) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -207 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -207

Selected market: Over 63.1% / Under 36.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -207 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-220	+155	-
Caesars	17.5	-213	+157	-
DK	17.5	-207	+154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 20.682 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +1.0 IP (xFIP 1.95 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 63.1% / under 36.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +1.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 18.1%, L7 17.4%, season 21.3% (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 7.7%, L7 8.7%, season 8.6% (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.90 | Season Avg 18.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-207); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jesus Luzardo Under 5.5 (-147) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.73 over 5.9 IP (WHIP 1.05, BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.4% / under 55.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 49 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .295 | OPS .776
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 16.8%, L7 23.2%, season 19.6%, BVP 24.5%/49 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 5.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jesús Luzardo Under 5.5 (-150) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.73 over 5.9 IP (WHIP 1.05, BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.2% / under 55.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 49 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .295 | OPS .776
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 16.8%, L7 23.2%, season 19.6%, BVP 24.5%/49 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 5.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-150) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Randy Dobnak Under 5.5 (+111) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +111

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-148	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.82 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .267 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 21.6%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/6 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

▸ Pitcher Walks — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Shane Bieber Over 1.5 (-136) diff 42.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1302000145953754 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 4.7 IP (BB% 10.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Bieber: 50 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .283 | OPS .710
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 19.2%, L7 13.1%, season 23.0%, BVP 14.0%/50 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 8.9%, L7 12.7%, season 8.2%, BVP 8.0%/50 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/8 (75%) | L20 6/8 (75%) | Season 6/8 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/8 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Brady Singer Over 1.5 (-181) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -181 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -181 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.078844236399233 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.3 IP (BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.2% / under 39.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.15x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 27 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .286 | OPS .947
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.5%, L7 26.4%, season 21.5%, BVP 11.1%/27 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.0%, split 11.4%, L7 10.2%, season 9.2%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 1.15x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-181); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Kumar Rocker Over 1.5 (-176) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -176 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 59.7% / Under 40.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -176 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0287375677821786 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.7% / under 40.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.13x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 24.2%, L7 29.1%, season 24.4% (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.6%, split 10.6%, L7 10.8%, season 10.3% (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-176); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Grayson Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-168) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9006916725867242 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.7 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 18.7%, L7 18.8%, season 21.5% (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 9.9%, L7 9.2%, season 8.9% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-168); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Michael McGreevy Under 1.5 (-163) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -163 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.124347664039356 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.1 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.0% / under 58.0%)
Opp batting adj: 0.86x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 37 PA | K% 10.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .583
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 22.3%, L7 19.8%, season 22.8%, BVP 10.8%/37 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.5%, split 8.3%, L7 6.5%, season 8.0%, BVP 0.0%/37 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-163) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Cade Povich Over 1.5 (-154) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.792922386985487 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 4.8 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Povich: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .667 | OPS 1.881
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.7%, L7 26.1%, season 22.8% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 10.2%, L7 9.0%, season 8.6% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/5 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 7 play(s) (B 7)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Randy Dobnak Under 3.5 (-150) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	3.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 34.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.81 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.40, ERA 2.24)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .267 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 21.6%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/6 (100%) | L20 6/6 (100%) | Season 6/6 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.67 | Season Avg 0.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/6 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-150) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cam Schlittler Under 2.5 (-155) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.55 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 2.90, ERA 2.66)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .375 | OPS .944
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 21.8%, L7 20.9%, season 21.3% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 18/24 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-155) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Grayson Rodriguez Over 2.5 (-136) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-136	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-155	+110	-

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.14 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.71, ERA 6.27)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 18.7%, L7 18.8%, season 21.5% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — JT Ginn Under 3.5 (-155) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 3.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 3.5 -155 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.4 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 31.4% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.07 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.22, ERA 3.97)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.7%, L7 24.0%, season 22.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 20/23 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Troy Melton Under 2.5 (-165) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.83 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 3.94, ERA 1.48)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.8%, L7 22.0%, season 20.9% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 11/12 (92%) | Season 11/12 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-165) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Joey Cantillo Under 2.5 (-140) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.02 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.99, ERA 4.22)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Joey Cantillo: 27 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .259 | OPS .704
Opponent K profile: composite 25.4%, split 21.3%, L7 30.2%, season 24.0%, BVP 33.3%/27 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/24 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cristian Javier Under 2.5 (-120) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -120 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.91 over 3.7 IP (xFIP 4.70, ERA 4.48)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.7 IP (HIGH; season 3.7 IP/GS; recent 3.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristian Javier: 55 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .265 | OPS .856
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.2%, L7 17.5%, season 21.9%, BVP 27.3%/55 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/9 (56%) | L20 5/9 (56%) | Season 5/9 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.22 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/9 under 2.5

▸ Batter Walks — 35 play(s) (B 35)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-438) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -438 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -438

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -438 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.68x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 54 PA | 12/52 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .606
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 54 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/109 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 93/109 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-438) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-400) diff 73.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 99/116 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 99/116 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-400) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-550) diff 73.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 85/102 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 85/102 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-550) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-350) diff 67.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/107 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 90/107 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-350) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-525) diff 67.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.300
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/108 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 92/108 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-525) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-450) diff 65.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/103 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter Walks: 81/103 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23

⚠ Heavy juice (-450); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-456) diff 60.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -456 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -456

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -456 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 86/109 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 86/109 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-456) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-450) diff 59.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/108 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 80/108 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-450) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-550) diff 57.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/112 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 94/112 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-550); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-550) diff 57.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/112 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 82/112 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-550); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-525) diff 56.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/117 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/59 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 42/58 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 87/117 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-525) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-319) diff 56.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -319

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+222	-319	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 4 PA | 3/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/117 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 93/117 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-319); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-464) diff 55.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -464 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -464

Selected market: Over 22.8% / Under 77.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -464 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+311	-464	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/117 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 45/59 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 88/117 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-464); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-369) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -369 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -369

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -369 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+253	-369	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/114 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 93/114 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Heavy juice (-369); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-421) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -421 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -421

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -421 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/114 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 93/114 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Heavy juice (-421); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-356) diff 54.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -356 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -356

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -356 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+245	-356	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/115 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 88/115 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-356) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-525) diff 53.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/116 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 83/116 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-525) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-500) diff 52.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 92/113 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 92/113 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-500); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-320) diff 51.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/99 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 73/99 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-320) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-304) diff 48.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -304 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -304

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -304 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+212	-304	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/108 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 84/108 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-304); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-319) diff 44.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -319 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -319

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -319 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+222	-319	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/112 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 83/112 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-319); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-405) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -405 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -405

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -405 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+276	-405	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/111 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 74/111 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Heavy juice (-405); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-254) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -254

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+179	-254	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/111 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 79/111 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Heavy juice (-254); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-162) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+117	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-187) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+134	-187	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-187); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-202) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -202

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+145	-202	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-202); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-227) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -227 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -227

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -227 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+161	-227	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-227); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-233) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -233

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+166	-233	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-233); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-262) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -262

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+185	-262	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-262); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Justin Foscue Under 0.5 (-334) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -334 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -334

Selected market: Over 28.2% / Under 71.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -334 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+231	-334	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-334); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-362) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -362 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -362

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -362 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+249	-362	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-362); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-386) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -386 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -386

Selected market: Over 25.7% / Under 74.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -386 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-386); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cameron Cauley Under 0.5 (-389) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -389 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -389

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -389 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+266	-389	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-389); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-431) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -431 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -431

Selected market: Over 24.0% / Under 76.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -431 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+291	-431	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-431); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-215) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-215); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-144) diff 80.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-144	+109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 80.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.338 (55 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 33 PA | 9/31 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 6.1% | OPS .656
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/110 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/54 over 1.5 (68%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 62/110 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.24

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-133) diff 78.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 78.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.448, xSLG 0.603 (75 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/118 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/61 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 62/118 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-159) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.167, xSLG 0.226 (60 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 73/114 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/58 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 73/114 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.35

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2, heavy juice -159 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-143) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.50
Base projection 2.50 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.220, xSLG 0.277 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/115 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/58 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter HRR: 35/57 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.60 | Day Batter HRR: 68/115 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.50

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-162) diff 71.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-159	+119	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-162	+122	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 71.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.291 (78 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/115 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/60 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.55 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 57/115 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.14

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1, heavy juice -162 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-162) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-155) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.331, xSLG 0.442 (33 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 13 PA | 6/13 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.231
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/116 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 35/61 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 62/116 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1, heavy juice -155 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-155) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-141) diff 68.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-141	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.308, xSLG 0.426 (81 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/112 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 50/112 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.06

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 30%, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-135) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.294 (25 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 53/102 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.71 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 53/102 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▸ Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-115) edge 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 8 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8 -115

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 8.5 at 6 books | 8 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 8 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is LowVig Over 8.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	8	-109	-	Recommended
Bovada Direct	8	-110	-	-
DK	8	-115	-	Selected
MyBookie	8	-120	-	-
BetMGM	8.5	+100	-	-
BetOnline	8.5	+102	-	-
BetUS	8.5	+100	-	-
FanDuel	8.5	-104	-	-
LowVig	8.5	+105	-	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	8.5	+100	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Kumar Rocker (RHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Cade Povich (LHP) | opp wRC+ 120 vs LHP (tough)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Cade Povich small sample (25 IP) — stats 31% actual / 69% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-120) edge 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals (F5) | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 3 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+106	-126	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
FanDuel	5.5	-108	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	5.5	+103	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (25)

[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 13 mph OUT (SSE) -- run total UP
F5 model: 4.8 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Randy Dobnak xFIP 4.40
Matthew Boyd xFIP 4.08
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 99)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.04, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 13 mph OUT (SSE) -- run total UP
Home SP: Randy Dobnak (RHP)
Away SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ F5 ML — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal F5 ML — Athletics (+172) edge 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (F5) | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +172 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +172

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +172 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓–✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Fenway Park (HITTER)
Home SP TBD
J.T. Ginn xFIP 4.22
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 101)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP: J.T. Ginn (RHP)

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 1.5 (-142) edge 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 -131 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -142

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 -131 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✓!–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Michael Soroka (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model run margin: -0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+15.98/$100
✓ Cover prob 68.1% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 11.9% ≥ 5%
✓ Arizona Diamondbacks home RL 78% (9 bets)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -142 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs LHP (tough)
Away SP: Justin Wrobleski (LHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs LHP (tough)
Chase Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 98)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 35% (team 107)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.7
Full game weights: starter 67%, bullpen 33%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (876 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 20 play(s) (B 9 | C 11)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 (-102) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-101	-128	-
DK	6.5	-102	-125	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+100	-128	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.1K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 24.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.60K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.6% / under 52.4%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jesus Luzardo: K/9 10.7, proj 8.1K over 6.2 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.8% | put-away% 23.9% | xwOBA 0.268 | top pitch: Sweeper (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 49 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .295 | OPS .776
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 16.8%, L7 23.2%, season 19.6%, active roster 19.3%/6 hitters, BVP 24.5%/49 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 23.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.40 | Season Avg 7.13
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +1.27 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jesús Luzardo Over 6.5 (+100) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.1K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 24.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.60K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Jesús Luzardo: K/9 10.7, proj 8.1K over 6.2 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.8% | put-away% 23.9% | xwOBA 0.268 | top pitch: Sweeper (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 49 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .295 | OPS .776
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 16.8%, L7 23.2%, season 19.6%, active roster 19.3%/6 hitters, BVP 24.5%/49 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 23.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.40 | Season Avg 7.13
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +1.27 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (1 books) — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jared Jones Over 5.5 (+116) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+120	-156	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+116	-148	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+124	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 23.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.26K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.7% / under 56.3%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jared Jones: K/9 9.8, proj 6.8K over 5.0 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.6% | put-away% 23.7% | xwOBA 0.284 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 34.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 9 PA | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.6%, L7 24.2%, season 22.7%, active roster 20.4%/6 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 65%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/12 (33%) | Season 4/12 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.17
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +3.0 ppts (recent 30.1% vs season 27.1%, proj adj +1.5%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Matt Boyd Over 4.5 (-150) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.67K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Matt Boyd: K/9 7.0, proj 5.2K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 16.4% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Slider (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 32.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.4%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 88%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.85
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.7 ppts (recent 14.2% vs season 20.9%, proj adj -3.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 (-124) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -124

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-119	-109	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115	Raw BestVerify
DK	6.5	-124	-102	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-115	-111	Recommended
Fanatics	6.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.1K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 9.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.62K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.3% / under 47.7%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Cam Schlittler: K/9 11.9, proj 7.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.0% | put-away% 23.6% | xwOBA 0.268 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .375 | OPS .944
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 21.8%, L7 20.9%, season 21.3%, active roster 21.0%/7 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 20.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.20 | Season Avg 7.12
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +1.08 vs season
K% trend: support +4.6 ppts (recent 35.4% vs season 30.8%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Davis Martin Over 3.5 (-133) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-133	+103	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-135	+105	-
DK	3.5	-133	+104	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-132	+104	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 3.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.13K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.8% / under 46.2%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Davis Martin: K/9 7.3, proj 3.6K over 5.3 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Curveball: 23.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Davis Martin: 55 PA | K% 5.5% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .438 | OPS 1.155
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 55 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 16.0%, L7 21.9%, season 22.1%, active roster 18.2%/7 hitters, BVP 5.5%/55 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 17.9%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 21.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 4.86
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -1.46 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.2 ppts (recent 14.7% vs season 20.9%, proj adj -3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 (-144) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.6% / Under 44.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-141	+108	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	-144	+112	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-146	+114	-
Fanatics	4.5	-145	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.6% / under 44.4%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Matthew Boyd: K/9 7.0, proj 4.6K over 5.9 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 16.4% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Slider (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Slider: 31.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 106 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .255 | OPS .714
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 106 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 22.3%, L7 14.3%, season 21.0%, active roster 21.6%/6 hitters, BVP 17.9%/106 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Kansas City Royals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 14.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.85
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.7 ppts (recent 14.2% vs season 20.9%, proj adj -3.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Michael McGreevy Over 3.5 (-145) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-135	+105	-
DK	3.5	-145	+114	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-132	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	3.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 1.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.04K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael McGreevy: K/9 6.7, proj 3.5K over 5.3 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.9% | put-away% 14.7% | xwOBA 0.360 | top pitch: Curveball (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Curveball: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 37 PA | K% 10.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .583
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 37 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 22.3%, L7 19.8%, season 22.8%, active roster 22.1%/7 hitters, BVP 10.8%/37 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.7%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 84%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.68
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Shane Bieber Over 3.5 (-143) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-149	+115	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-143	+112	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-138	+108	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	3.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 0.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.03K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.5% / under 44.5%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shane Bieber: K/9 7.6, proj 3.5K over 5.0 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.2% | put-away% 14.3% | xwOBA 0.404 | top pitch: Slider (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Slider: 31.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Bieber: 50 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .283 | OPS .710
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 50 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 19.2%, L7 13.1%, season 23.0%, active roster 20.8%/8 hitters, BVP 14.0%/50 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.5%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 13.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.8% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: K L10: 4/8 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Gusto Under 4.5 (+117) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +117

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.76K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Ryan Gusto: K/9 8.0, proj 3.7K over 4.1 IP (season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.8% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Cutter (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Cutter: 18.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Gusto: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .214 | OPS .910
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.4%, split 24.8%, L7 30.2%, season 25.3%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/14 (86%) | Season 12/14 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.79
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cristian Javier Over 3.5 (+107) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	+107	-136	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+120	-154	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 14.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.51K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.6% / under 54.4%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Cristian Javier: K/9 8.3, proj 4.0K over 3.8 IP (season 3.7 IP/GS; recent 3.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 27.3% | put-away% 14.3% | xwOBA 0.346 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cristian Javier: 55 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .265 | OPS .856
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 55 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.2%, L7 17.5%, season 21.9%, BVP 27.3%/55 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/9 (33%) | L20 3/9 (33%) | Season 3/9 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.56 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: K L10: 3/9 over 3.5
K% trend: support +3.7 ppts (recent 22.1% vs season 18.4%, proj adj +1.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kumar Rocker Over 5.5 (+113) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +113

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+113	-144	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+116	-148	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 13.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.77K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.3% / under 55.7%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kumar Rocker: K/9 8.6, proj 6.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Slider (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Slider: 38.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 24.2%, L7 29.1%, season 24.4% (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/21 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 4.67
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 3.5 (-156) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
DK	3.5	-156	+122	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-150	+118	-
Fanatics	3.5	-145	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 12.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.5% / under 42.5%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Eduardo Rodriguez: K/9 6.0, proj 4.0K over 5.8 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.1% | put-away% 15.2% | xwOBA 0.338 | top pitch: Changeup (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Changeup: 29.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 209 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .970
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 209 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.7%, L7 18.0%, season 20.4%, BVP 19.6%/209 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 (-161) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -161

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	+130	-170	-
DK	3.5	+126	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	+134	-172	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 12.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.44K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.8% / under 58.2%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael Lorenzen: K/9 6.3, proj 3.1K over 4.6 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.8% | put-away% 14.9% | xwOBA 0.366 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Changeup: 29.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .455 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 19.6%, L7 19.4%, season 20.4%, active roster 18.9%/6 hitters (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.33
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brady Singer Over 4.5 (-117) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	-117	-109	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+104	-132	-
Fanatics	4.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 11.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.53K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.8% / under 49.2%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Brady Singer: K/9 7.7, proj 5.0K over 5.6 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.341 | top pitch: Sweeper (45% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Sweeper: 35.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 27 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .286 | OPS .947
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.5%, L7 26.4%, season 21.5%, BVP 11.1%/27 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 4.41
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.09 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sean Manaea Over 5.5 (+122) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+124	-161	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+122	-156	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+126	-162	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 11.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.62K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sean Manaea: K/9 8.6, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .087 | OPS .440
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 25.1%, L7 28.1%, season 24.1%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/24 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 3.96
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.04 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Justin Wrobleski Over 3.5 (-164) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-170	+130	-
DK	3.5	-164	+128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-166	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 8.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.31K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.6% / under 41.4%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Justin Wrobleski: K/9 8.5, proj 3.8K over 6.1 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 19.4% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 18.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.90x)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 39 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .306 | OPS .748
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 39 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 15.8%, L7 21.8%, season 19.3%, active roster 17.4%/6 hitters, BVP 12.8%/39 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 16.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 17.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 4.79
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +1.21 vs season
K% trend: support +10.4 ppts (recent 29.7% vs season 19.3%, proj adj +5.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.90) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Connor Prielipp Over 5.5 (+114) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +114

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+103	-133	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	+114	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.37K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Connor Prielipp: K/9 9.5, proj 5.9K over 5.3 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.3% | put-away% 18.2% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Curveball: 33.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Connor Prielipp: 16 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .200 | OPS .650
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 24.3%, L7 29.6%, season 21.4%, BVP 25.0%/16 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/15 (47%) | Season 7/15 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.40
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cade Povich Over 4.5 (-120) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-120	-107	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-113	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.26K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.3% / under 48.7%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Cade Povich: K/9 7.6, proj 4.8K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Curveball: 23.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Povich: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .667 | OPS 1.881
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.7%, L7 26.1%, season 22.8% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.80
Prop trend: K L10: 2/5 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Grant Holmes Over 4.5 (-155) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -155

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-154	+118	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-155	+121	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-150	+118	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.11K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.3% / under 42.7%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Grant Holmes: K/9 7.6, proj 4.6K over 4.9 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 15.3% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Slider: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 35 PA | K% 11.4% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .375 | OPS 1.054
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 35 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 19.9%, L7 27.3%, season 24.6%, BVP 11.4%/35 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/22 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 4.18
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 12 play(s) (B 1 | C 11)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Matthew Boyd Over 17.5 (-181) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -181

Selected market: Over 60.3% / Under 39.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-182	+136	-
DK	17.5	-181	+136	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-180	+125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.136 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.08 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.3% / under 39.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 109)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 109
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 106 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .255 | OPS .714
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 22.3%, L7 14.3%, season 21.0%, BVP 17.9%/106 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.1%, split 5.2%, L7 6.5%, season 8.2%, BVP 3.8%/106 PA (adj 0.83x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.5 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 16.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael McGreevy Under 17.5 (-113) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	17.5	-124	-108	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-117	-113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 14.892 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.16 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 79)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 79
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 37 PA | K% 10.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .583
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 22.3%, L7 19.8%, season 22.8%, BVP 10.8%/37 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.5%, split 8.3%, L7 6.5%, season 8.0%, BVP 0.0%/37 PA (adj 0.86x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/22 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.20 | Season Avg 16.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.61 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.61 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jesus Luzardo Over 18.5 (+145) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.3% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 +145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	18.5	+132	-179	-
DK	18.5	+145	-193	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	18.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 20.561999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 11.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 3.02 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 38.3% / under 61.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 49 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .295 | OPS .776
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 16.8%, L7 23.2%, season 19.6%, BVP 24.5%/49 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 8.3%, L7 7.4%, season 7.4%, BVP 10.2%/49 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.9%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/23 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.10 | Season Avg 17.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jesús Luzardo Over 18.5 (+145) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 20.561999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 11.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 3.02 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 38.4% / under 61.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 49 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .295 | OPS .776
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 16.8%, L7 23.2%, season 19.6%, BVP 24.5%/49 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 8.3%, L7 7.4%, season 7.4%, BVP 10.2%/49 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.9%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/23 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.10 | Season Avg 17.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Troy Melton Over 17.5 (-122) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	17.5	-129	-105	-
DK	17.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 19.112 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.94 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 99
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.8%, L7 22.0%, season 20.9% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 6.2%, L7 9.0%, season 7.0% (adj 0.92x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.40 | Season Avg 18.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cam Schlittler Over 17.5 (-189) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -189

Selected market: Over 61.3% / Under 38.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-190	+145	-
Caesars	17.5	-182	+134	-
DK	17.5	-189	+142	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-150	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 19.037000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.90 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.3% / under 38.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .375 | OPS .944
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 21.8%, L7 20.9%, season 21.3% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 8.2%, L7 5.9%, season 7.8% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sean Manaea Under 17.5 (-123) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	17.5	-112	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-108	-123	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 15.982999999999999 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.27 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .087 | OPS .440
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 25.1%, L7 28.1%, season 24.1%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 7.6%, L7 11.3%, season 9.4%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 19/24 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.40 | Season Avg 12.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +4.19 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Webb Over 18.5 (-104) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	18.5	-108	-124	-
DK	18.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 19.949 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 7.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.68 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 53 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .225 | OPS .691
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.1%, L7 20.1%, season 22.6%, BVP 32.1%/53 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 10.9%, L7 11.2%, season 9.4%, BVP 5.7%/53 PA (adj 1.08x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.70 | Season Avg 18.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Brady Singer Under 17.5 (+102) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +102

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	17.5	-127	-105	-
DK	17.5	-135	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 16.208 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.30 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.2 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 27 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .286 | OPS .947
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.5%, L7 26.4%, season 21.5%, BVP 11.1%/27 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.0%, split 11.4%, L7 10.2%, season 9.2%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 1.15x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.2 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 15.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +2.10 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Justin Wrobleski Over 17.5 (-154) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-164	+123	-
DK	17.5	-154	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-185	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 18.745 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.18 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.6% / under 43.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 39 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .306 | OPS .748
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 15.8%, L7 21.8%, season 19.3%, BVP 12.8%/39 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 10.5%, L7 10.9%, season 8.8%, BVP 7.7%/39 PA (adj 1.08x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.7%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.40 | Season Avg 18.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 17.5 (+106) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +106

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-137	+104	-
DK	17.5	-141	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 16.299 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.54 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 209 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .970
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.7%, L7 18.0%, season 20.4%, BVP 19.6%/209 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.8%, L7 6.3%, season 9.8%, BVP 8.1%/209 PA (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.9%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/23 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Matt Boyd Under 17.5 (+140) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +140

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 16.968 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.08 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 60.7% / under 39.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (assessment unavailable)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: unavailable -- outs held to research
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 22.4%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 10.6%, L7 10.0%, season 10.8% (adj 1.12x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.5 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Outs leash: hook risk: missing pitcher assessment
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 16.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 206 play(s) (B 1 | C 205)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (-115) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-115	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/114 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 24/57 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 55/114 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-118) diff 54.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-118	-117	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/112 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/58 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 0.70 | Day Batter Walks: 60/112 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.65

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-464) diff 50.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -464 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -464

Selected market: Over 22.8% / Under 77.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -464 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+311	-464	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 33 PA | 9/31 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 6.1% | OPS .656
BVP walk adjustment: 0.89x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/110 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 88/110 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-345) diff 49.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -345

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+238	-345	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/113 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 92/113 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-375) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -375 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+257	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/107 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 81/107 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-405) diff 49.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -405 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -405

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -405 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/112 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/112 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Starling Marte Under 0.5 (-460) diff 49.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -460 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -460

Selected market: Over 23.0% / Under 77.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -460 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/112 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/112 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-320) diff 49.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/112 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/112 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-251) diff 48.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -251 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -251

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -251 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+177	-251	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/99 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 72/99 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (+106) diff 48.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+106	-146	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/118 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/61 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 58/118 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-400) diff 48.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/107 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 76/107 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-404) diff 47.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -404 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -404

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -404 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+275	-404	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/118 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/61 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 91/118 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-229) diff 47.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -229 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -229

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -229 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+163	-229	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/118 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/61 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 91/118 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-245) diff 43.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 82/112 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/53 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 82/112 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-240) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 13 PA | 6/13 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.231
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/116 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 41/61 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 80/116 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 (+124) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+124	-172	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 10.9% (walk adj 1.28x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/115 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/57 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 24/58 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 50/115 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.56

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-284) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -284

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+199	-284	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-303) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -303 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -303

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -303 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+212	-303	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-358) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -358

Selected market: Over 27.0% / Under 73.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+246	-358	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Davis Schneider Under 0.5 (-294) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -294

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+206	-294	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-499) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -499 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -499

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -499 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (+164) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +164

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+164	-231	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/116 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.79 | Day Batter Walks: 60/116 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.71

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (-115) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/116 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.79 | Day Batter Walks: 60/116 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.71

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-394) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -394 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -394

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -394 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+269	-394	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.68x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 62/99 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 25/46 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 62/99 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-280) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 74/109 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-375) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/114 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 74/114 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (+116) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +116

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+116	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.81
Base projection 0.81 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/98 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/48 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter Walks: 29/50 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter Walks: 54/98 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.81

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-350) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.196
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/111 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 80/111 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Smith Under 0.5 (-425) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/116 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 85/116 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-375) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/116 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 85/116 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-315) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -315 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -315

Selected market: Over 29.2% / Under 70.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -315 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+219	-315	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/115 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 80/115 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-295) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -295 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -295

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -295 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+206	-295	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 84/113 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-375) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/115 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 88/115 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-386) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -386

Selected market: Over 25.7% / Under 74.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+264	-386	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/115 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 87/115 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-575) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -575

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-300) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-210) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-425) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-280) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-450) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-240) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-525) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-306) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+213	-306	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Edouard Julien Under 0.5 (-215) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-270) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-245) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-525) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-330) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-475) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-243) diff 37.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+172	-243	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/97 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 31/46 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 69/97 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-310) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/116 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 35/59 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 76/116 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-300) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/104 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 74/104 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-400) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/113 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 82/113 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-550) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-320) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-185) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-475) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-195) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-270) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-300) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-475) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-450) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-155) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-450) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-310) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 67/109 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-229) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -229 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -229

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -229 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+163	-229	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-240) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+170	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-251) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -251 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -251

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -251 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+178	-251	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-292) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -292

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+204	-292	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-297) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -297 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -297

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -297 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+208	-297	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-307) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -307 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -307

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -307 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+214	-307	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-411) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -411 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -411

Selected market: Over 24.7% / Under 75.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -411 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+279	-411	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-413) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -413 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -413

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -413 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+280	-413	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-310) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-334) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -334

Selected market: Over 28.2% / Under 71.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+231	-334	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-238) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -238 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -238

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -238 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+169	-238	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 (+115) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 32 PA | 8/26 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 18.8% | OPS 1.091
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/107 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 27/58 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.66 | Day Batter Walks: 51/107 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.64

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-328) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -328

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+228	-328	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/107 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 74/107 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (+165) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +165

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 11 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .919
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/119 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/59 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter Walks: 22/60 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 54/119 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.61

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-208) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -208 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -208

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -208 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+149	-208	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/115 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 82/115 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-310) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-310) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-330) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-280) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-500) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-280) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-320) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-225) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/117 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/59 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 75/117 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-245) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -245 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+174	-245	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-251) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -251 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -251

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -251 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+177	-251	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-352) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -352 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -352

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -352 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+243	-352	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-130) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-375) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-280) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronny Simon Under 0.5 (-425) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Flores Under 0.5 (-320) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Torrens Under 0.5 (-400) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-330) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/106 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 32/53 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 68/106 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-400) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-255) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-270) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-270) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-180) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-400) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-270) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 79/109 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-138) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -138

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+100	-138	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brenton Doyle Under 0.5 (-307) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -307 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -307

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -307 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+214	-307	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Edgar Quero Under 0.5 (-331) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -331

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+229	-331	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-375) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -375 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+257	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Angel Genao Under 0.5 (-377) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -377 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -377

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -377 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randal Grichuk Under 0.5 (-417) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -417 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -417

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -417 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+283	-417	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luisangel Acuna Under 0.5 (-421) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -421 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -421

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -421 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+285	-421	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Petey Halpin Under 0.5 (-423) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -423 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -423

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -423 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rortvedt Under 0.5 (-400) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-230) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-375) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Locklear Under 0.5 (-475) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Call Under 0.5 (-225) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-425) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-400) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-330) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 59/94 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/50 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 28/44 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 59/94 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-300) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/116 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/62 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 76/116 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-437) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -437 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -437

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -437 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+295	-437	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/116 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/58 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 85/116 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-330) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/89 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/43 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 30/46 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 55/89 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-270) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/109 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 85/109 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-350) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 66/93 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/47 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 66/93 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-246) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.9% / Under 66.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+174	-246	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-455) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -455 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -455

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -455 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+305	-455	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-284) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -284 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -284

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -284 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+199	-284	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-252) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -252 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -252

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -252 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+178	-252	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-233) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -233

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+165	-233	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-425) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-324) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -324

Selected market: Over 28.7% / Under 71.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+225	-324	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brady House Under 0.5 (-425) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-296) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -296 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -296

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -296 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+207	-296	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-310) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.5% / Under 70.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 0.5 -310; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+216	-310	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-343) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -343 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -343

Selected market: Over 27.7% / Under 72.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -343 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-244) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -244

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+173	-244	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/110 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 75/110 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-250) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -250 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-373) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -373

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+256	-373	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — John Rave Under 0.5 (-424) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -424 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -424

Selected market: Over 24.2% / Under 75.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -424 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+287	-424	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Maile Under 0.5 (-515) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -515 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -515

Selected market: Over 21.3% / Under 78.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -515 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Tolbert Under 0.5 (-544) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -544 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -544

Selected market: Over 20.5% / Under 79.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -544 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-375) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-195) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/107 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 28/55 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 65/107 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.45

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-280) diff 28.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/114 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 35/56 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 75/114 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-350) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-240) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-475) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-450) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-340) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-375) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-210) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-475) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-215) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-310) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 74/109 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (+132) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+132	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 54/117 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 27/58 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.66 | Day Batter Walks: 54/117 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-333) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -333 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -333

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -333 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+230	-333	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/114 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 35/59 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 74/114 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-240) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 7 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.238 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/114 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/57 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 34/57 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 66/114 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-198) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -198 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -198

Selected market: Over 38.3% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -198 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+142	-198	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 13 PA | 2/12 | HR 1 | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .647
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/87 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/48 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 25/39 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 55/87 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-195) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/108 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/60 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 76/108 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-270) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/83 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/44 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 32/39 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 58/83 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-179) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -179 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -179 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+129	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/100 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 27/46 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 62/100 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-223) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -223 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -223

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -223 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+159	-223	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 72/109 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-155) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 74/117 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 74/117 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-222) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -222

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+158	-222	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 78/116 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 78/116 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (+125) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/111 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/60 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 22/51 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 50/111 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-255) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/115 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/57 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 32/58 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 65/115 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Over 0.5 (+115) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/112 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/50 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 20/62 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 39/112 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (+122) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +122

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+122	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/88 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 19/43 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 44/88 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-240) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/111 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 33/54 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 70/111 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-282) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -282

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+198	-282	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/113 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 77/113 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 (+132) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+132	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/118 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/59 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 24/59 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 46/118 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Over 0.5 (+115) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 37/97 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/43 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 20/54 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 37/97 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-239) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -239

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+169	-239	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/85 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/44 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 28/41 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 55/85 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-271) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -271

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+191	-271	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 76/112 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 76/112 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 (+118) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+118	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/101 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/51 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.69 | Away Batter Walks: 14/50 over 0.5 (28%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 40/101 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (+105) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 43/104 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/54 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 24/50 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 43/104 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-215) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -215 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+153	-215	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/93 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 31/48 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 59/93 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-260) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -260 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -260 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+184	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/116 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/60 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 73/116 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-320) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 76/116 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/61 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 76/116 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Over 0.5 (+135) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/106 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/55 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 19/51 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 42/106 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (+150) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 29 PA | 4/25 | HR 2 | K% 31.0% | BB% 13.8% | OPS .716
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/110 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/54 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 24/56 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 45/110 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-230) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 74/108 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (+154) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +154

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+154	-215	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/113 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/57 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 21/56 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 49/113 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-244) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -244 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -244

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -244 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+173	-244	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 10.9% (walk adj 1.28x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-282) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -282 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -282

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -282 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+198	-282	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 10.9% (walk adj 1.28x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (+140) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/115 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/57 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 22/58 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 44/115 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-225) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 28 PA | 10/24 | HR 1 | K% 17.9% | BB% 10.7% | OPS 1.131
BVP walk adjustment: 1.08x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/114 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 34/58 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 74/114 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-210) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/112 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/54 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 30/58 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 70/112 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Over 0.5 (+135) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/113 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/58 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 22/55 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 42/113 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-245) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 74/109 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-170) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 75/116 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 75/116 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-180) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/106 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 29/49 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 66/106 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Over 0.5 (+130) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.4% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+130	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 48/115 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 21/56 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 48/115 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-210) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/114 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/57 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 32/57 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 63/114 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 (+150) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+150	-211	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 10.9% (walk adj 1.28x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 38/113 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/56 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 20/57 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 38/113 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-165) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 67/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 27/54 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 67/111 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 (+153) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +153

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+153	-215	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 45/118 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/59 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 28/59 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 45/118 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-200) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/113 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/55 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 34/58 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 59/113 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-322) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -322

Selected market: Over 28.8% / Under 71.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+224	-322	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 51/86 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/43 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 27/43 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 51/86 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-209) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -209 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -209

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -209 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+150	-209	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 51/86 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/43 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 27/43 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 51/86 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-183) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -183

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+132	-183	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 57/97 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/50 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 29/47 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 57/97 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Over 0.5 (+164) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +164

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+164	-231	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 14 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.071
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/108 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/53 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 16/55 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 43/108 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-200) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/105 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/48 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 65/105 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-232) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -232 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -232

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -232 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+165	-232	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/117 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 72/117 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 127 play(s) (B 8 | C 119)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nicky Lopez Over 1.5 (+129) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.167, xSLG 0.226 (60 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 73/114 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/58 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 73/114 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.35

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 40.9% (1 books) — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (-167) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.404 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/115 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 59/115 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-157) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.344, xSLG 0.407 (32 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/116 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 55/116 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (-162) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.452 (35 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/117 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 57/117 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 (-130) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.342 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/113 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 49/113 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (-141) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-141	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.348, xSLG 0.556 (27 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/114 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 51/114 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Pedro Ramirez Over 1.5 (-139) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.389, xSLG 0.330 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/86 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/43 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 41/86 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (-119) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-159) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.417, xSLG 0.625 (32 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brad Lord contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/97 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/50 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.48 | Away Batter HRR: 28/47 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 58/97 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 64.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 64.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-109) diff 63.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.283, xSLG 0.439 (62 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/113 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/60 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 59/113 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 63.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 63.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-126) diff 60.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.253, xSLG 0.390 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 53/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-155) diff 59.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.8% / Under 43.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.340, xSLG 0.419 (54 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 28 PA | 10/24 | HR 1 | K% 17.9% | BB% 10.7% | OPS 1.131
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/114 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.48 | Day Batter HRR: 60/114 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-122) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.422 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/108 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.12 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.66 | Day Batter HRR: 58/108 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-141) diff 52.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.428 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/93 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 42/93 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-123) diff 50.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.395, xSLG 0.516 (68 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 61/117 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 61/117 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-108) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -108; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.445, xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/115 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 58/115 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-158) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.319 (67 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brad Lord contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/116 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 59/116 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (+101) diff 48.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.336, xSLG 0.421 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/112 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 57/112 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-164) diff 47.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/111 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 54/111 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-150) diff 47.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.302 (72 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 62/118 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/59 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 62/118 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (-109) diff 46.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.287 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/114 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 59/114 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 (-104) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.358, xSLG 0.492 (158 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/112 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.41 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 58/112 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-161) diff 45.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.391 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/116 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/61 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 56/116 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (-101) diff 43.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.362 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 55/99 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/49 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 55/99 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-144) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-144	+109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.279, xSLG 0.325 (26 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/100 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 22/46 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 51/100 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+101) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.425, xSLG 0.623 (36 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/114 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 57/114 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (-119) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.428 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 4 PA | 3/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/117 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 57/117 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-137) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-137	+104	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.270, xSLG 0.352 (65 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/113 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 49/113 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (-117) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.205, xSLG 0.253 (40 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/110 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.32 | Away Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 59/110 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-116) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.464, xSLG 0.635 (39 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/98 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.38 | Day Batter HRR: 47/98 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-145) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.425, xSLG 0.640 (36 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/111 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 54/111 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+100) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.313 (33 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/108 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 55/108 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (-122) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.377, xSLG 0.549 (24 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 52/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-125) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.256, xSLG 0.353 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/108 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/60 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 59/108 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-127) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.283 (67 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/113 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 35/58 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 60/113 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hector Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+100) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/107 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/56 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 61/107 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-116) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.460, xSLG 0.627 (11 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/107 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 36/60 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 58/107 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-121) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.264, xSLG 0.275 (76 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 29 PA | 4/25 | HR 2 | K% 31.0% | BB% 13.8% | OPS .716
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/110 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 55/110 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-111) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.281, xSLG 0.363 (71 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/115 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 31/58 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 57/115 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (-113) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.243, xSLG 0.288 (57 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/113 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 61/113 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-143) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-143	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.389, xSLG 0.330 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/86 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/43 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 41/86 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+104) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.505 (43 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/110 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 54/110 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+125) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.505 (43 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/110 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 54/110 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (-132) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.318 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/109 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 56/109 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (+100) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.365 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/107 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 48/107 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-102) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.418, xSLG 0.531 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/117 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 61/117 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Young Over 1.5 (+127) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/118 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/61 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 56/118 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (-113) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.374 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/97 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 25/46 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 51/97 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Over 1.5 (-108) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.208, xSLG 0.156 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/109 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 49/109 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (-117) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.364 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brad Lord contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 41/88 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/45 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 22/43 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 41/88 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+101) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.263 (14 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/85 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 20/41 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 41/85 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-102) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.229, xSLG 0.273 (78 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/116 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 55/116 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jakob Marsee Over 1.5 (+113) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.364, xSLG 0.466 (39 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 42/113 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter HRR: 42/113 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-113) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.402 (45 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/109 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 51/109 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (+103) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.192, xSLG 0.195 (25 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 54/115 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 0/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.20 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter HRR: 54/115 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 2.5 (+114) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.80 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.44
Base projection 2.44 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.489 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 46/113 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/61 over 2.5 (33%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 2.5 (50%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 46/113 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Over 1.5 (-144) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.306, xSLG 0.351 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 14 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.071
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 45/108 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter HRR: 45/108 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 (+109) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.79 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.39
Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.420, xSLG 0.620 (59 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 32 PA | 8/26 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 18.8% | OPS 1.091
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/107 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/49 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 30/58 over 2.5 (52%), avg 2.66 | Day Batter HRR: 50/107 over 2.5 (47%), avg 2.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+120) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.317 (44 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/115 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 57/115 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+118) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.391 (18 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 51/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 (+105) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.306 (43 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/116 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 57/116 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Under 2.5 (-145) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 2.5 -145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+109	-145	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.33 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.249, xSLG 0.311 (47 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/101 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/51 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 29/50 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 59/101 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-146) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-135) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (-102) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rortvedt Over 1.5 (+120) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Rojas Over 1.5 (+131) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (-113) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (-126) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (-119) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (-107) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Abimelec Ortiz Over 1.5 (-106) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (-103) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Matt McLain Over 1.5 (+122) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorbit Vivas Over 1.5 (+128) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Tena Over 1.5 (+129) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Tolbert Over 1.5 (+100) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (-106) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+101) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+107) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Baez Over 1.5 (+113) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daniel Susac Over 1.5 (+118) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Clark Over 1.5 (+123) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Osleivis Basabe Over 1.5 (+135) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+135	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+105) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.262 (42 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/115 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/58 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 60/115 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (+100) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Torres Over 1.5 (-121) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (-118) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Blaze Jordan Over 1.5 (-113) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Church Over 1.5 (-112) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (-111) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jimmy Crooks Over 1.5 (-105) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Troy Johnston Over 1.5 (+107) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Triolo Over 1.5 (+100) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 2.5 (+111) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.56 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.322, xSLG 0.425 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 50/116 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/62 over 2.5 (36%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 2.5 (52%), avg 2.67 | Day Batter HRR: 50/116 over 2.5 (43%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-135) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (-119) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (+104) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (+117) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (+117) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Foscue Over 1.5 (+132) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leody Taveras Over 1.5 (+136) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Under 1.5 (-124) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.235 (47 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 13 PA | 2/12 | HR 1 | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .647
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/87 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/48 under 1.5 (40%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 24/39 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 43/87 under 1.5 (49%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (-124) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (-112) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (-103) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Griffin Conine Over 1.5 (+101) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+105) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 (+117) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joe Mack Over 1.5 (+121) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Owen Caissie Over 1.5 (+127) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Moises Ballesteros Over 1.5 (+130) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 2.5 (-126) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	-113	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-105	-126	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.47 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.283, xSLG 0.385 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/118 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/59 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 36/59 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 70/118 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+100) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randal Grichuk Over 1.5 (+114) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Genao Over 1.5 (+122) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Petey Halpin Over 1.5 (+122) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Edgar Quero Over 1.5 (+123) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Patrick Bailey Over 1.5 (+127) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brenton Doyle Over 1.5 (+138) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nasim Nunez Over 1.5 (+122) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.355, xSLG 0.352 (18 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 43/110 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/54 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter HRR: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 43/110 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Under 1.5 (-144) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -134 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+109	-144	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Under 1.5 (-122) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-108	-122	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Myles Straw Under 1.5 (-149) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Under 1.5 (-136) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Under 1.5 (-170) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-150) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.494 (30 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 33/53 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter HRR: 72/108 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 225 play(s) (B 4 | C 209 | D 12)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Tolbert Over 0.5 (-170) diff 219.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+130	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Isbel Over 0.5 (-160) diff 219.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-141) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-137	+106	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-141	+106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.385 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/118 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 56/118 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-142) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-137	+106	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.485 (66 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/99 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 19/46 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 46/99 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 358.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 2.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 358.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.29
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/116 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 49/59 over 0.5 (83%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 82/116 over 0.5 (71%), avg 2.29

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 359% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nicky Lopez Over 0.5 (-160) diff 327.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 327.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.226 (60 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 86/114 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/58 over 0.5 (78%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 41/56 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 86/114 over 0.5 (75%), avg 1.89

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 327% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-120) diff 265.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 265.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.616 (30 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 77/111 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/56 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 77/111 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.75

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 266% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 0.5 (-180) diff 254.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 254.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.623 (36 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/114 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 38/59 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 73/114 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.66

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 254% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Lowe Over 0.5 (-140) diff 242.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 242.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.253 (40 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/110 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 38/53 over 0.5 (72%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 75/110 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.94

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 243% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 0.5 (-180) diff 240.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 240.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/114 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/58 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 72/114 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.70

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 240% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 (-160) diff 238.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 238.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.505 (43 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/110 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 63/110 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.65

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 238% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 (-160) diff 238.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 238.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.505 (43 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/110 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 63/110 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.65

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 238% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 0.5 (-180) diff 222.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-150) diff 222.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Tena Over 0.5 (-160) diff 221.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorbit Vivas Over 0.5 (-150) diff 221.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt McLain Over 0.5 (-150) diff 221.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 0.5 (-190) diff 219.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 (-150) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 (-130) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Jones Over 0.5 (-130) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 (-125) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Jarvis Over 0.5 (-120) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 0.5 (-180) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 0.5 (-130) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 (-120) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cooper Pratt Over 0.5 (-150) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 0.5 (-140) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Wells Over 0.5 (+110) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alan Roden Over 0.5 (+120) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.1% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 0.5 (-180) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Baez Over 0.5 (-180) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (-140) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Grant McCray Over 0.5 (-120) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach McKinstry Over 0.5 (-160) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Gilbert Over 0.5 (-140) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Osleivis Basabe Over 0.5 (-180) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Clark Over 0.5 (-180) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Troy Johnston Over 0.5 (-180) diff 214.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Robert Jr. Over 0.5 (-180) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 (-140) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Triolo Over 0.5 (-160) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Flores Over 0.5 (-120) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 (-120) diff 212.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (-170) diff 212.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 0.5 (-180) diff 212.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 0.5 (-180) diff 211.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/93 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/47 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 29/46 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 57/93 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.56

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 0.5 (-165) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cameron Cauley Over 0.5 (-130) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 0.5 (-130) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leody Taveras Over 0.5 (-150) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 (-180) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Foscue Over 0.5 (-130) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Beavers Over 0.5 (-160) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 (+100) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colton Cowser Over 0.5 (-110) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 0.5 (-200) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 0.5 (-165) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joe Mack Over 0.5 (-140) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (-165) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Denzer Guzman Over 0.5 (-165) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Owen Caissie Over 0.5 (-140) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 (-165) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/111 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/57 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 36/54 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 72/111 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.53

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Petey Halpin Over 0.5 (-180) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luisangel Acuna Over 0.5 (-140) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 (-160) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Patrick Bailey Over 0.5 (-160) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randal Grichuk Over 0.5 (-180) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brenton Doyle Over 0.5 (-150) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +199; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Edgar Quero Over 0.5 (-160) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Myles Straw Over 0.5 (-190) diff 202.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (-180) diff 202.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Davis Schneider Over 0.5 (+125) diff 202.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 0.5 (-165) diff 202.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.442 (125 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/117 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/59 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 41/58 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 79/117 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.68

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-150) diff 198.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 198.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/118 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/61 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 79/118 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 198.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 198.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 198% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willy Adames Over 0.5 (-165) diff 188.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 188.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.391 (18 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/112 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/53 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 67/112 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 188.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 188.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 189% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Over 0.5 (-180) diff 171.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 171.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.306 (43 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/116 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 33/59 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 65/116 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 171.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 171.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 172% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 0.5 (-190) diff 160.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.333 (133 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/112 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 41/56 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 77/112 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 160.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 160.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 161% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Over 0.5 (-165) diff 155.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 155.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/116 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/59 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 59/116 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 155.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 155.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 155% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (-160) diff 154.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 154.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.03
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.466 (39 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/113 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter TB: 30/56 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 57/113 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 154.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 154.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 154% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 (-165) diff 144.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 144.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/104 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/55 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter TB: 30/49 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 58/104 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 144.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 144.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 (-140) diff 141.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 141.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.293 (59 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/53 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 54/109 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 141.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 141.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 (-180) diff 140.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 140.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.494 (30 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/108 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 31/53 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 56/108 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 140.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 140.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (-150) diff 135.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 135.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.237 (35 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/112 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 34/58 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 61/112 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 135.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 135.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 0.5 (-120) diff 127.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.175 (41 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/112 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 36/58 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 67/112 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 127.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 94.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.330 (28 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/112 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/55 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 29/57 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 58/112 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 94.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 94.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Over 0.5 (-140) diff 85.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.93 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.226 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/109 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 43/54 over 0.5 (80%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 73/109 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 85.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 85.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Baty Over 0.5 (-140) diff 78.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.89 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.01
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.305 (39 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/107 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/54 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 26/53 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 56/107 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 78.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 78.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 72.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.86 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.82
Base projection 0.82 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.352 (18 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/110 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.72 | Away Batter TB: 33/56 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter TB: 55/110 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 72.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 72.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-123) diff 60.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.620 (59 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 32 PA | 8/26 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 18.8% | OPS 1.091
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/107 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter TB: 50/107 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 60.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 60.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+104) diff 57.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.426 (81 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 48/112 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 48/112 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 57.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 57.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+174) diff 52.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +174

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.29
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/116 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 55/116 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-115) diff 52.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.29
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/116 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 55/116 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+115) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.603 (75 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/118 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/61 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 50/118 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (+111) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.390 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 43/107 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter TB: 43/107 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-109) diff 47.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-110	-120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.489 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/113 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/61 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 52/113 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+103) diff 45.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.467 (61 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.300
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/108 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter TB: 42/108 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+110) diff 44.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.451 (69 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 50/112 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.24 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 29/62 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 50/112 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+123) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.338 (55 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 33 PA | 9/31 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 6.1% | OPS .656
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/110 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 54/110 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+102) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.277 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/115 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/58 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter TB: 51/115 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-108) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.625 (32 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brad Lord contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/97 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter TB: 21/47 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 47/97 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-108) diff 42.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.226 (60 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 56/114 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/58 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 56/114 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-102) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.428 (54 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 34/93 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/45 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 18/48 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 34/93 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-121) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-121	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.425 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/116 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/62 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter TB: 55/116 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+121) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.552 (153 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/117 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter TB: 62/117 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+102) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.442 (33 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 13 PA | 6/13 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.231
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/116 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 23/61 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 49/116 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+113) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.294 (25 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/102 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 18/51 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 48/102 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+106) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.291 (78 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/115 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 43/115 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+108) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.419 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 28 PA | 10/24 | HR 1 | K% 17.9% | BB% 10.7% | OPS 1.131
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/114 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 52/114 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+140) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.439 (62 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 44/113 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 44/113 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+121) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.422 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/108 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter TB: 48/108 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+120) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.376 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 33/83 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/44 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 19/39 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 33/83 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+109) diff 25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.640 (36 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/111 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 48/111 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (+129) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.747 (50 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/109 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 44/109 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 (+142) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.492 (158 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 52/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 52/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Starling Marte Over 1.5 (+140) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.492 (158 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 52/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 52/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (+100) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.492 (158 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 52/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 52/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+131) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/115 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 44/115 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+140) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.616 (30 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/111 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 50/111 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+114) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.516 (68 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/117 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/62 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 47/117 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-177) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.402 (45 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 69/109 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 69/109 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-119) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.311 (47 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 44/101 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 44/101 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-190) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.425 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/106 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 38/53 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 74/106 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+150) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.455 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/111 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 48/111 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+120) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.385 (152 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 7 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.238 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/114 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 48/114 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+146) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+146	-195	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.287 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/114 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 45/114 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-167) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.351 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 14 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.071
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter TB: 72/108 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (+150) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.421 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/112 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 43/112 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+127) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.532 (81 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/111 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 50/111 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-107) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.319 (67 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brad Lord contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/116 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 45/116 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Under 1.5 (-177) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (35 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter TB: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 74/109 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+131) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.597 (105 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/94 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 17/44 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 39/94 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+129) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.253 (40 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 50/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (+138) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.253 (40 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 50/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+122) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.635 (39 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 36/98 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/48 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 36/98 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (+110) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.366 (45 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/116 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 47/116 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+119) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.428 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 4 PA | 3/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 43/117 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 43/117 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+120) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.531 (103 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/89 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/43 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 24/46 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 40/89 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Under 1.5 (-181) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.341 (30 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/97 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/43 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 42/54 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 68/97 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+125) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (69 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 47/115 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 47/115 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (+115) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.556 (27 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 41/114 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 21/57 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 41/114 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-199) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -199

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
DK	1.5	+149	-199	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.262 (42 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/115 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/58 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 67/115 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+126) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.370 (39 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 11 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .919
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 46/119 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 22/60 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 46/119 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hector Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+142) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/107 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 40/107 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (+108) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (72 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 41/118 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 18/59 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 41/118 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (+130) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.362 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/99 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.08 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 17/50 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 42/99 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+112) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.325 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/100 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 46/100 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+140) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.477 (118 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.196
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/111 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 40/111 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+118) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+118	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.549 (24 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/112 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/54 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 42/112 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+130) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.531 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/117 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 49/117 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Under 1.5 (-162) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.275 (76 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 29 PA | 4/25 | HR 2 | K% 31.0% | BB% 13.8% | OPS .716
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/110 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/54 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 77/110 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+108) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 41/111 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 41/111 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-197) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -197

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.156 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/109 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 71/109 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+120) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.314 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/115 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 41/115 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (+106) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/116 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/61 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 41/116 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+171) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.327 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/104 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/54 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 41/104 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+117) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.364 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brad Lord contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 32/88 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/45 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 14/43 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 32/88 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+110) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+122) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (+130) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-185) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
Fanatics	1.5	+140	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.410 (157 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 75/114 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/57 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 39/57 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 75/114 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (+128) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.352 (65 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 36/113 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 15/55 over 1.5 (27%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 36/113 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (+137) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (+143) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+143	-192	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Abimelec Ortiz Over 1.5 (+136) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (+127) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+127	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+134) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+120) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-151) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.477 (74 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/117 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 37/59 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 78/117 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+145) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dansby Swanson Under 1.5 (-170) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.342 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/113 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 38/56 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 78/113 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pedro Ramirez Under 1.5 (-158) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.330 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 55/86 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/43 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 28/43 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 55/86 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-134) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-139	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.330 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 55/86 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/43 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 28/43 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 55/86 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+123) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+152) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +152

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+152	-204	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (-101) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.452 (35 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/117 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/59 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 42/117 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+105) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.404 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/115 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/59 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 42/115 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.313 (33 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/108 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 42/108 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+116) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.396 (47 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/113 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 53/113 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+153) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +153

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+153	-206	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+123) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.627 (11 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/107 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/47 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 45/107 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.363 (71 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/115 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 53/115 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (+124) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+129) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Torres Over 1.5 (+137) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+137	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 1.5 (+150) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+150	-201	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jimmy Crooks Over 1.5 (+130) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Blaze Jordan Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+124) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+126) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+126	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+131) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+132) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+158) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +158

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronny Simon Over 1.5 (+171) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 1.5 (+125) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+120) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+114) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+121) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-133) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.314 (73 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 54 PA | 12/52 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .606
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 54 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 71/109 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 71/109 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+132) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (+132) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+160) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Under 1.5 (-176) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.374 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 56/97 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 27/46 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 56/97 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Genao Over 1.5 (+171) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-186) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.353 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/108 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/60 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 62/108 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+114) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.283 (67 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/113 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 46/113 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-189) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.301 (67 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/110 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/54 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 69/110 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+151) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +151

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+151	-203	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+150) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (+108) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.407 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/116 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 20/58 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 41/116 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+132) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.273 (78 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 41/116 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/62 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 41/116 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-160) diff 198.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 198.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/118 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/61 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 79/118 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 198.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 198% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (-165) diff 192.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 192.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/108 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/51 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 64/108 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 192.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 193% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (-180) diff 190.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 190.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.263 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/85 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/44 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 25/41 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 51/85 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 190.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 190% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 (-200) diff 179.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+160	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.288 (57 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/113 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/56 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 80/113 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 179% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 (-165) diff 169.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 169.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.317 (44 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/115 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 34/58 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 68/115 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 169.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 170% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 0.5 (-130) diff 167.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 167.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.442 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/103 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 61/103 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 167.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 167% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (-160) diff 166.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 166.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.478 (36 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/106 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 55/106 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 166.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 166% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 (-190) diff 157.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 157.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.195 (25 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/115 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/58 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter TB: 69/115 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 157.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 158% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 0.5 (-190) diff 145.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 145.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.235 (47 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 13 PA | 2/12 | HR 1 | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .647
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 57/87 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/48 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 26/39 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 57/87 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 145.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 0.5 (-130) diff 142.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 142.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (47 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 42/59 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 74/113 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 142.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (-150) diff 135.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 135.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.399 (150 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/116 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/58 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 27/58 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter TB: 62/116 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 135.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-165) diff 116.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 116.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.194 (72 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 27/50 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 51/99 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 116.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 12 play(s) (C 12)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — JT Ginn Under 5.5 (+105) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +105

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.76 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 10.6%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.7%, L7 24.0%, season 22.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 3.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael Lorenzen Over 6.5 (+113) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	6.5	+113	-151	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 7.6 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 16.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.57 over 4.4 IP (WHIP 1.93, BB% 8.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.8% / under 56.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.12x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .455 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 19.6%, L7 19.4%, season 20.4% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 6.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Logan Webb Under 5.5 (+105) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +105

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+105	-
DK	5.5	-139	+105	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-155	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.80 over 6.0 IP (WHIP 1.06, BB% 6.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 53 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .225 | OPS .691
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.1%, L7 20.1%, season 22.6%, BVP 32.1%/53 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Davis Martin Over 5.5 (+100) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 6.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.08 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.39, BB% 7.2%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.12x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Davis Martin: 55 PA | K% 5.5% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .438 | OPS 1.155
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 16.0%, L7 21.9%, season 22.1%, BVP 5.5%/55 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Bieber Under 5.5 (-108) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-123	-108	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.45, BB% 10.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Bieber: 50 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .283 | OPS .710
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 19.2%, L7 13.1%, season 23.0%, BVP 14.0%/50 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.25 | Season Avg 5.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/8 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Justin Wrobleski Over 5.5 (-133) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-133	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.92 over 5.9 IP (WHIP 1.14, BB% 5.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.08x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 39 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .306 | OPS .748
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 15.8%, L7 21.8%, season 19.3%, BVP 12.8%/39 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 6.5 (-148) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.2 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 4.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 209 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .970
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.7%, L7 18.0%, season 20.4%, BVP 19.6%/209 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/23 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brady Singer Over 5.5 (-118) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	-
DK	5.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.00 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.33, BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 27 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .286 | OPS .947
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.5%, L7 26.4%, season 21.5%, BVP 11.1%/27 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-106) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-125	-106	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.05 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 18.7%, L7 18.8%, season 21.5% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/11 (36%) | Season 4/11 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matthew Boyd Under 5.5 (+107) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +107

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.91 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 106 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .255 | OPS .714
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 22.3%, L7 14.3%, season 21.0%, BVP 17.9%/106 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael McGreevy Over 5.5 (-116) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	-
DK	5.5	-116	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.08 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.1% / under 49.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 37 PA | K% 10.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .583
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 22.3%, L7 19.8%, season 22.8%, BVP 10.8%/37 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/22 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sean Manaea Under 5.5 (+110) Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +110

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.06 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.41, BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.94x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .087 | OPS .440
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 25.1%, L7 28.1%, season 24.1%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/24 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 4.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 6 play(s) (C 6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jesus Luzardo Over 1.5 (-112) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8542679678714797 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.9 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 49 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .295 | OPS .776
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 16.8%, L7 23.2%, season 19.6%, BVP 24.5%/49 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 8.3%, L7 7.4%, season 7.4%, BVP 10.2%/49 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ryan Gusto Under 1.5 (-163) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -163 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.2361670449717923 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 3.8 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Gusto: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .214 | OPS .910
Opponent K profile: composite 26.4%, split 24.8%, L7 30.2%, season 25.3%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 11.7%, L7 7.0%, season 8.4%, BVP 6.7%/15 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/14 (71%) | Season 10/14 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Randy Dobnak Under 2.5 (-201) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -201 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -201

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -201 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0891771634172622 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 5.1 IP (BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 37.5% / under 62.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .267 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 21.6%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 11.4%, L7 10.0%, season 10.8%, BVP 0.0%/15 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.17 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/6 under 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael Lorenzen Over 1.5 (-135) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.67815416604245 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.4 IP (BB% 8.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .455 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 19.6%, L7 19.4%, season 20.4% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 8.8%, L7 10.6%, season 8.6% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jared Jones Under 1.5 (-163) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -163 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.3902618254137056 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 4.7 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 9 PA | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 21.6%, L7 24.2%, season 22.7% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 6.6%, L7 7.4%, season 8.5% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Matthew Boyd Under 1.5 (-218) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -218 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -218

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -218 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.4142877497289785 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.7 IP (BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 35.8% / under 64.2%)
Opp batting adj: 0.83x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 106 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .255 | OPS .714
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 22.3%, L7 14.3%, season 21.0%, BVP 17.9%/106 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.1%, split 5.2%, L7 6.5%, season 8.2%, BVP 3.8%/106 PA (adj 0.83x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 15 play(s) (C 15)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jesus Luzardo Over 1.5 (-165) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-165	+124	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	2.5	+125	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.72 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 3.02, ERA 2.95)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 49 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .295 | OPS .776
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 16.8%, L7 23.2%, season 19.6%, BVP 24.5%/49 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Gusto Over 1.5 (-150) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.38 over 3.8 IP (xFIP 4.17, ERA 4.54)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Gusto: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .214 | OPS .910
Opponent K profile: composite 26.4%, split 24.8%, L7 30.2%, season 25.3%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/14 (36%) | Season 5/14 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Bieber Over 2.5 (-150) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.30 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.57, ERA 4.35)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Bieber: 50 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .283 | OPS .710
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 19.2%, L7 13.1%, season 23.0%, BVP 14.0%/50 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/8 (38%) | L20 3/8 (38%) | Season 3/8 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.62 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/8 over 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 2.5 (-143) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.32 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.54, ERA 3.37)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 209 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .970
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.7%, L7 18.0%, season 20.4%, BVP 19.6%/209 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/23 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jared Jones Over 1.5 (-143) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.48 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.77, ERA 3.60)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 9 PA | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 21.6%, L7 24.2%, season 22.7% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brady Singer Over 2.5 (-129) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.55 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.30, ERA 4.38)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 27 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .286 | OPS .947
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.5%, L7 26.4%, season 21.5%, BVP 11.1%/27 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Justin Wrobleski Over 2.5 (+103) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.19 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 4.18, ERA 3.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 39 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .306 | OPS .748
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 15.8%, L7 21.8%, season 19.3%, BVP 12.8%/39 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 (-155) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.1 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 11.4% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.24 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.77, ERA 7.33)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.06x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .455 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 19.6%, L7 19.4%, season 20.4% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Connor Prielipp Under 2.5 (-150) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.20 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.11, ERA 4.46)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Connor Prielipp: 16 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .200 | OPS .650
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 24.3%, L7 29.6%, season 21.4%, BVP 25.0%/16 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael McGreevy Over 2.5 (-104) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.60 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.16, ERA 4.34)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 37 PA | K% 10.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .583
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 22.3%, L7 19.8%, season 22.8%, BVP 10.8%/37 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/22 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kumar Rocker Under 2.5 (-160) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.33 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.15, ERA 4.43)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 24.2%, L7 29.1%, season 24.4% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Manaea Over 2.5 (-130) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -130

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.31 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.27, ERA 4.00)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .087 | OPS .440
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 25.1%, L7 28.1%, season 24.1%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 5/24 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cade Povich Under 2.5 (-126) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.42 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 4.14)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.0% / under 52.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Povich: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .667 | OPS 1.881
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.7%, L7 26.1%, season 22.8% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/5 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Webb Under 2.5 (-136) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.65 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 3.68, ERA 3.85)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.1% / under 53.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 53 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .225 | OPS .691
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.1%, L7 20.1%, season 22.6%, BVP 32.1%/53 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Boyd Under 2.5 (-114) Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.93 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.08, ERA 3.36)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 106 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 3.8% | AVG .255 | OPS .714
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 22.3%, L7 14.3%, season 21.0%, BVP 17.9%/106 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 28 play(s) (C 28)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 (-260) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -260

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-261) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+192	-261	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.86 (AVG 0.233)
Base projection 0.86 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.389 (27 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/33 (21%) | L5 3/12 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/86 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.86
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/43 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter Hits: 35/43 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Hits: 69/86 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Tommy Edman Under 1.5 (-269) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -269 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -269

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -269 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+198	-269	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Sal Stewart Under 1.5 (-233) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -233 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -233

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -233 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+172	-233	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.97 (AVG 0.255)
Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.267 (67 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brad Lord contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/38 (26%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/116 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 46/60 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter Hits: 42/56 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 88/116 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-258) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+190	-258	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.255)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.350 (74 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/41 (22%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 84/117 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 45/58 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 39/59 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter Hits: 84/117 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-245) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -245

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -245 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	-
DK	1.5	+181	-245	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.91 (AVG 0.263)
Base projection 0.91 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.306 (17 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 14 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.071
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 16/41 (39%) | L5 7/21 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 83/108 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 0.91
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/53 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter Hits: 41/55 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.87 | Day Batter Hits: 83/108 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Michael Busch Under 1.5 (-251) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -251

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+185	-251	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.92 (AVG 0.244)
Base projection 0.92 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.357 (35 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/40 (28%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 91/117 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.92
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/59 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 47/58 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Hits: 91/117 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-238) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -238 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -238

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -238 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+176	-238	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.91 (AVG 0.244)
Base projection 0.91 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.323 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/42 (26%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/116 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.91
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 51/61 under 1.5 (84%), avg 0.84 | Away Batter Hits: 42/55 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 93/116 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alex Bregman Under 1.5 (-247) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -247 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -247 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+183	-247	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.97 (AVG 0.246)
Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.316 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/40 (25%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 87/115 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 49/59 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.85 | Away Batter Hits: 38/56 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter Hits: 87/115 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Seiya Suzuki Under 1.5 (-225) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+167	-225	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.269)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.249 (47 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/37 (24%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/101 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/51 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 72/101 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — JJ Wetherholt Under 1.5 (-258) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+190	-258	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.95 (AVG 0.246)
Base projection 0.95 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.289 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 6/35 (17%) | L5 3/17 (18%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/111 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.95
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 0.89 | Away Batter Hits: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 80/111 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Chase DeLauter Under 1.5 (-268) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -268 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -268

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -268 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	-
DK	1.5	+197	-268	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.279)
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.279 (26 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/40 (25%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 69/100 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter Hits: 34/46 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 69/100 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-224) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+167	-224	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+160	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.257)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.344 (32 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/40 (30%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 88/116 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/58 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 44/58 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 88/116 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 1.5 (-194) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -189 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -189 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.287)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.283 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/37 (32%) | L5 8/20 (40%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 85/118 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/59 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 44/59 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 85/118 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Brandon Nimmo Under 1.5 (-267) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -267

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+196	-267	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.274)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.425 (36 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/35 (34%) | L5 7/19 (37%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/111 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter Hits: 74/111 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Elly De La Cruz Under 1.5 (-235) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -235 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -235

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -235 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+174	-235	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.274)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.417 (32 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brad Lord contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/36 (25%) | L5 4/17 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 69/97 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/50 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter Hits: 37/47 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 69/97 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-194) diff 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.286)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.363 (66 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 44 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/37 (27%) | L5 8/19 (42%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/99 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter Hits: 34/46 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 70/99 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Andy Pages Under 1.5 (-239) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -239 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -239

Selected market: Over 33.9% / Under 66.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -239 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+177	-239	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.270)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.331 (33 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 13 PA | 6/13 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.231
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/40 (35%) | L5 5/19 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/116 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter Hits: 50/61 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 88/116 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-237) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -237 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -237 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+176	-237	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.305)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 16/45 (36%) | L5 12/22 (55%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/102 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter Hits: 39/51 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 71/102 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Burleson Under 1.5 (-206) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -206 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -206 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+153	-206	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.322 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/35 (29%) | L5 4/16 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/116 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 46/62 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter Hits: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter Hits: 80/116 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-264) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -264

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+194	-264	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.287)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.280 (72 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/34 (24%) | L5 4/15 (27%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/118 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 44/59 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 86/118 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-246) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+181	-246	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.251)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.239 (78 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 15/43 (35%) | L5 7/22 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 84/115 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/60 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 84/115 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-272) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -272 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -272

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -272 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+220	-303	-
DK	1.5	+200	-272	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.18 (AVG 0.309)
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.318 (47 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/39 (26%) | L5 6/19 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/113 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 31/57 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter Hits: 67/113 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jordan Walker Under 1.5 (-217) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -217

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+161	-217	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/43 (26%) | L5 8/24 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/113 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/61 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 36/52 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter Hits: 80/113 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 (-217) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -217

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+161	-217	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.294)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.420 (59 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 32 PA | 8/26 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 18.8% | OPS 1.091
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 16/38 (42%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/107 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 35/58 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter Hits: 71/107 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Freddie Freeman Under 1.5 (-240) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -240

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+177	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.15 (AVG 0.304)
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.340 (54 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 28 PA | 10/24 | HR 1 | K% 17.9% | BB% 10.7% | OPS 1.131
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/37 (35%) | L5 3/18 (17%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/114 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/56 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 34/58 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter Hits: 75/114 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-216) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -216 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -216

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -216 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+161	-216	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.27 (AVG 0.317)
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.167 (60 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/42 (21%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 69/114 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/58 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter Hits: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 69/114 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+185) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +204 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +185

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +204 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+185	-251	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.30 (AVG 0.324)
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.284 (55 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 33 PA | 9/31 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 6.1% | OPS .656
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/42 (31%) | L5 7/21 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/110 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter Hits: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 44/110 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Total — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (+103) edge 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 7 -122 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +103

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 8 books | 7 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 7 -122 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	7	-122	-	Recommended
MyBookie	7	-123	-	-
BetMGM	7.5	+100	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	+102	-	-
BetUS	7.5	+100	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+105	-	Raw BestVerify
DK	7.5	+103	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-104	-	-
LowVig	7.5	+105	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+105	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[IL] Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Jack Anderson (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Garrett Acton (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.4 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Connor Prielipp (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.4
Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Jacob Misiorowski elite xFIP (1.95)

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-130) edge 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres (F5) | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -130

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	5.5	+100	-130	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[INJ] Miguel Ullola (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (San Diego Padres) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Petco Park (PITCHER)
Home SP TBD
Cristian Javier xFIP 4.70
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 50% (team 96)
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 103)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP: Cristian Javier (RHP)

▸ Moneyline — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Moneyline — Athletics (+218) edge 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK +218 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +218

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: DK +218 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Underdog ML value — Athletics at +218 with 16.3% edge (EV $+50.20/$100)
Away SP: J.T. Ginn (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.3 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 66.1% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 21.2% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds +113 within price guard (-160 floor)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Batter HR — 222 play(s) (C 222)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 98.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0091
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.352 (18 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 109/110 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/54 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 55/56 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 109/110 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 96.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0185
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.351 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 14 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.071
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/108 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/53 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 106/108 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Davis Schneider Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Valenzuela Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Petey Halpin Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luisangel Acuna Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randal Grichuk Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brenton Doyle Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edgar Quero Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 21.6% / Under 78.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cameron Cauley Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Foscue Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.6% / Under 83.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Flores Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Baez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Tolbert Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0367
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (35 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 105/109 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/57 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 105/109 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 91.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0550
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.226 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/109 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 103/109 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 89.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0531
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.396 (47 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 107/113 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/56 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 107/113 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 89.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0455
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.338 (55 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 33 PA | 9/31 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 6.1% | OPS .656
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 105/110 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 105/110 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 88.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0642
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.402 (45 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 102/109 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/54 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 102/109 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 88.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0654
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.305 (39 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/107 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 100/107 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 88.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0566
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.425 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/106 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 51/53 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 100/106 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 88.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0508
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (72 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 112/118 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 58/59 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 112/118 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0714
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.330 (28 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 105/112 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 105/112 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 87.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0603
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.407 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 109/116 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 109/116 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0783
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.262 (42 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/115 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 106/115 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 86.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0531
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.466 (39 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 107/113 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/57 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 107/113 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-800) diff 86.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0673
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 97/104 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 97/104 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 86.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0748
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.627 (11 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/107 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 100/107 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0722
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.374 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/97 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 90/97 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 84.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0755
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.478 (36 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 98/106 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 98/106 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0893
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.333 (133 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/112 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 102/112 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0783
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.195 (25 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/115 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 106/115 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0789
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.410 (157 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/114 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/57 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 105/114 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0804
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.237 (35 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 103/112 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/112 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0714
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.421 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 104/112 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 104/112 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 82.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0826
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.156 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/109 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 100/109 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 82.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0833
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.494 (30 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/108 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 100/108 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 82.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0789
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.226 (60 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 105/114 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 105/114 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 82.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 6.3% / Under 93.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0789
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.226 (60 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 105/114 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 105/114 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0940
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.477 (74 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 108/117 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 108/117 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 81.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0973
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.288 (57 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/113 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 103/113 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-600) diff 81.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0862
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.366 (45 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 107/116 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 107/116 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 80.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0899
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.531 (103 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/89 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 81/89 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 80.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1062
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.283 (67 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 101/113 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 101/113 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 80.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.275 (76 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 29 PA | 4/25 | HR 2 | K% 31.0% | BB% 13.8% | OPS .716
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 99/110 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 99/110 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 80.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1019
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.353 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/108 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 97/108 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 79.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1327
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (47 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 100/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 78.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1059
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.263 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 77/85 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/44 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 36/41 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 77/85 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1207
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.399 (150 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/116 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 104/116 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 78.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.175 (41 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/112 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 97/112 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 78.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1043
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.404 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/115 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/59 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 104/115 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 77.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1379
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.235 (47 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 13 PA | 2/12 | HR 1 | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .647
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 75/87 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 32/39 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 75/87 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1163
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.330 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 77/86 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 37/43 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 77/86 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 76.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1163
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.330 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 77/86 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 37/43 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 77/86 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 76.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1414
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.194 (72 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/99 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 85/99 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1186
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/118 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 105/118 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1186
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/118 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 105/118 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-750) diff 75.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1081
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.640 (36 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 100/111 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 100/111 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 75.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1204
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.313 (33 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/108 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 96/108 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 75.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1200
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.325 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/100 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 39/46 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 89/100 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1140
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.287 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/114 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/114 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-600) diff 75.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1237
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.341 (30 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/97 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 86/97 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1121
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/116 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/61 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 104/116 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-800) diff 74.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1197
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.452 (35 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/117 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/117 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1293
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/116 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 103/116 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1261
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.370 (39 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 11 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .919
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 105/119 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 105/119 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-800) diff 73.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1391
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.363 (71 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 100/115 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 100/115 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-800) diff 73.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1284
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.293 (59 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 97/109 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 97/109 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1351
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1282
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.428 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 4 PA | 3/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/117 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 105/117 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-400) diff 72.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1313
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.485 (66 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/99 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 87/99 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1275
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.294 (25 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/102 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 91/102 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 72.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1150
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.352 (65 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/113 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 101/113 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1398
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/93 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 81/93 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1351
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.616 (30 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1351
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.616 (30 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-800) diff 71.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1404
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.385 (152 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 7 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.238 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/114 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 99/114 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 71.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.455 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1313
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.362 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 87/99 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 87/99 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-800) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1845
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.442 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/103 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 86/103 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 70.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1455
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.301 (67 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 94/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1468
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.314 (73 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 54 PA | 12/52 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .606
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 54 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/109 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 93/109 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1316
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.419 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 28 PA | 10/24 | HR 1 | K% 17.9% | BB% 10.7% | OPS 1.131
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 100/114 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 100/114 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1624
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.442 (125 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 99/117 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 99/117 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-650) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1552
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.273 (78 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/116 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 99/116 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1696
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.391 (18 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/112 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 94/112 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1504
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.342 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 100/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-750) diff 68.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1478
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (69 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 99/115 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 99/115 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 68.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1724
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.306 (43 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/116 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 51/59 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 97/116 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1574
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/108 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 92/108 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 66.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1682
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/107 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 90/107 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-750) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1802
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.532 (81 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/111 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 93/111 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1532
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.477 (118 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.196
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 95/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1416
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.439 (62 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 99/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-500) diff 64.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1552
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.425 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/116 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/62 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 100/116 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 64.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1478
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.291 (78 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 99/115 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 99/115 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-800) diff 64.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2087
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.317 (44 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/115 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 92/115 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 63.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1696
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.492 (158 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/112 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 94/112 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Starling Marte Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 63.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1696
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.492 (158 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/112 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 94/112 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-650) diff 63.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1696
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.492 (158 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/112 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 94/112 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-600) diff 63.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1696
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.549 (24 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/112 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 94/112 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 62.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1638
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.442 (33 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 13 PA | 6/13 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.231
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/116 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 53/61 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 99/116 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-800) diff 62.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.556 (27 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/114 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 95/114 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1754
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.623 (36 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/114 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 95/114 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-750) diff 62.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1928
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.376 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 69/83 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/44 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 34/39 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 69/83 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-700) diff 62.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2051
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.531 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/117 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 95/117 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-700) diff 61.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1881
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.311 (47 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/101 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 82/101 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1930
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/114 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 93/114 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-800) diff 60.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1835
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.747 (50 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/109 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 93/109 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-700) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2273
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.253 (40 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/110 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 88/110 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2273
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.253 (40 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/110 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 88/110 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2273
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.253 (40 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/110 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 88/110 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-700) diff 58.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2128
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.597 (105 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 75/94 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 36/44 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 75/94 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-700) diff 58.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1939
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.635 (39 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 80/98 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 37/50 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 80/98 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-600) diff 58.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1720
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.428 (54 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/93 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 80/93 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-600) diff 58.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.314 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/115 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 94/115 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-750) diff 57.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2155
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.319 (67 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brad Lord contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 93/116 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 93/116 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-500) diff 57.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1966
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.516 (68 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/117 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 94/117 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-750) diff 55.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2062
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.625 (32 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brad Lord contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/97 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 78/97 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-700) diff 55.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2087
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/115 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 93/115 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-650) diff 54.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2273
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.364 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brad Lord contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/88 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/45 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 37/43 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 69/88 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-500) diff 54.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2203
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.385 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/118 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 95/118 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-600) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2273
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.505 (43 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/110 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 86/110 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2273
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.505 (43 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/110 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 86/110 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-600) diff 53.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2035
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.489 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/113 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/61 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 90/113 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 53.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2407
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.422 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/108 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 85/108 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-600) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2435
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.277 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 89/115 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter HR: 89/115 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-500) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.467 (61 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.300
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/108 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 88/108 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-425) diff 46.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2821
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.552 (153 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 87/117 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 87/117 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-600) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2119
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.603 (75 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 94/118 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 94/118 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-450) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2342
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.620 (59 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 32 PA | 8/26 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 18.8% | OPS 1.091
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/107 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 82/107 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3017
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/116 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 86/116 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-375) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3017
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/116 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 86/116 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-450) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2857
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.451 (69 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/112 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/50 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 81/112 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-400) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3084
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.390 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/107 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 82/107 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-300) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2946
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.426 (81 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 84/112 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/58 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 84/112 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.360/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.360/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

4 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	1:35 PM	Moneyline	Athletics	DK	+218	30.9%	47.2%	+16.3%	$+50.20	6	Bet on DK
B	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	2:35 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-115	51.2%	67.3%	+16.1%	$+25.77	9	Bet on DK
A	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	2:10 PM	Run Line	Kansas City Royals +1.5	DK	-121	52.4%	68.2%	+15.8%	$+24.47	9	Bet on DK
C	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:10 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	+103	47.1%	62.5%	+15.4%	$+26.91	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (4 play(s))

C Athletics — Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (Moneyline) +16.3%

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Underdog ML value — Athletics at +218 with 16.3% edge (EV $+50.20/$100)
Away SP: J.T. Ginn (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.3 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 66.1% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 21.2% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds +113 within price guard (-160 floor)

B Over 8.0 — Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers (Total) +16.1%

[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Kumar Rocker (RHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Cade Povich (LHP) | opp wRC+ 120 vs LHP (tough)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Cade Povich small sample (25 IP) — stats 31% actual / 69% league avg (regression applied)

A Kansas City Royals +1.5 — Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals (Run Line) +15.8%

[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 13 mph OUT (SSE) -- run total UP
Model run margin: -0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+24.47/$100
✓ Cover prob 68.1% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 15.8% ≥ 5%
✓ Kansas City Royals home RL 71% (7 bets)
✓ L5 RL 5/5
✓ Odds -121 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Randy Dobnak (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.98)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 99)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 104)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.8
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.08, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 13 mph OUT (SSE) -- run total UP
Randy Dobnak small sample (31 IP) — stats 38% actual / 62% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 7.5 — Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers (Total) +15.4%

[IL] Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Jack Anderson (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Garrett Acton (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.4 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Connor Prielipp (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.4
Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Jacob Misiorowski elite xFIP (1.95)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
B	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (F5)	1:35 PM	F5 ML	Athletics	FanDuel	+172	34.8%	49.3%	+14.4%	$+34.00	—	Bet on DK
C	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres (F5)	8:20 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-130	53.1%	64.5%	+11.5%	$+14.15	1	Bet on DK
B	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals (F5)	2:10 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-120	51.2%	61.6%	+10.4%	$+13.02	3	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (3 play(s))

B Athletics — Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (F5) (F5 ML) +14.4%

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Fenway Park (HITTER)
Home SP TBD
J.T. Ginn xFIP 4.22
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 101)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP: J.T. Ginn (RHP)

C Under 5.5 — Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres (F5) (F5 Total) +11.5%

[INJ] Miguel Ullola (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (San Diego Padres) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Petco Park (PITCHER)
Home SP TBD
Cristian Javier xFIP 4.70
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 50% (team 96)
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 103)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP: Cristian Javier (RHP)

B Under 5.5 — Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals (F5) (F5 Total) +10.4%

[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 13 mph OUT (SSE) -- run total UP
F5 model: 4.8 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Randy Dobnak xFIP 4.40
Matthew Boyd xFIP 4.08
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 99)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.04, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 13 mph OUT (SSE) -- run total UP
Home SP: Randy Dobnak (RHP)
Away SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals

12:16 PM · decision fi-56f1f05b50b6e8b5

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.1%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +102

Raw Edge

+0.6%

Effective Edge

-1.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.4% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.9%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -125

Raw Edge

-5.7%

Effective Edge

-7.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -7.7% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Brady Singer · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Brad Lord · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T07:57:06.184903Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.501
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Brady Singer / Brad Lord announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.501

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSBrady Singer / Brad Lord announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	+102	-130	46.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5

Athletics @ Boston Red Sox

1:35 PM · decision fi-b6df08b1a460e035

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: J.T. Ginn · official_announced · matched

Home starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T08:04:45.360137Z

both starters must be officially announced

2 accepted paired book(s). both starters must be officially announced

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusboth starters must be officially announced

Book shop (2 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED

Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees

1:35 PM · decision fi-91c025a2d1473b10

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.2%

Fair Odds

-105

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -109

Raw Edge

-1.0%

Effective Edge

-2.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.0% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.8%

Fair Odds

+105

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -110

Raw Edge

-3.6%

Effective Edge

-4.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.6% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Grant Holmes · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Cam Schlittler · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T07:57:06.184903Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.512
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Grant Holmes / Cam Schlittler announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.512

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSGrant Holmes / Cam Schlittler announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-109	-122	48.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates

1:35 PM · decision fi-9cd909f8c409c705

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.7%

Fair Odds

-107

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -130

Raw Edge

-4.9%

Effective Edge

-6.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -6.4% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.3%

Fair Odds

+107

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +105

Raw Edge

-0.4%

Effective Edge

-1.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.9% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Sean Manaea · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jared Jones · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T07:57:06.184903Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.517
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Sean Manaea / Jared Jones announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.517

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSSean Manaea / Jared Jones announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-139	+105	54.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-130	+102	53.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies

1:36 PM · decision fi-8ac0db4023c20844

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.0%

Fair Odds

-100

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -114

Raw Edge

-3.2%

Effective Edge

-4.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.7% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.0%

Fair Odds

+100

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -104

Raw Edge

-1.0%

Effective Edge

-2.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.5% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Shane Bieber · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jesús Luzardo · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T07:57:06.184903Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.500
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Shane Bieber / Jesús Luzardo announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.500

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSShane Bieber / Jesús Luzardo announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-114	-117	49.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-122	-104	51.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins

1:40 PM · decision fi-2f24a279e309ffa6

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.8%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +100

Raw Edge

-0.2%

Effective Edge

-2.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.2% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.2%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -114

Raw Edge

-3.1%

Effective Edge

-5.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.1% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Grayson Rodriguez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Ryan Gusto · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T07:57:06.184903Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.498
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Grayson Rodriguez / Ryan Gusto announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.498

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSGrayson Rodriguez / Ryan Gusto announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-117	-114	50.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+100	-128	47.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals

2:10 PM · decision fi-cfc58ebe663dbb3c

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.9%

Fair Odds

+100

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +116

Raw Edge

+3.6%

Effective Edge

+1.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +1.6% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.1%

Fair Odds

-100

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -130

Raw Edge

-6.4%

Effective Edge

-8.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -8.4% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Matthew Boyd · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Randy Dobnak · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T07:57:06.184903Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.499
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Matthew Boyd / Randy Dobnak announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.499

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMatthew Boyd / Randy Dobnak announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	+108	-143	45.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+116	-148	43.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

2:10 PM · decision fi-c010527b78db2b99

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

52.2%

Fair Odds

-109

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -113

Raw Edge

-0.8%

Effective Edge

-2.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.3% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

47.8%

Fair Odds

+109

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +112

Raw Edge

+0.6%

Effective Edge

-0.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.9% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Joey Cantillo · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Davis Martin · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T07:57:06.184903Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.522
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Joey Cantillo / Davis Martin announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.522

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJoey Cantillo / Davis Martin announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-113	-118	49.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-142	+112	55.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers

2:10 PM · decision fi-00b8d540cca01315

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.6%

Fair Odds

-107

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -146

Raw Edge

-7.7%

Effective Edge

-8.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -8.7% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.4%

Fair Odds

+107

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +120

Raw Edge

+2.9%

Effective Edge

+1.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +1.9% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Connor Prielipp · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jacob Misiorowski · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T07:57:06.184903Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.516
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Connor Prielipp / Jacob Misiorowski announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.516

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSConnor Prielipp / Jacob Misiorowski announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-154	+115	56.6%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-157	+116	56.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-146	+114	55.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-150	+120	56.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals

2:15 PM · decision fi-cfc880ee0b663507

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.8%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -106

Raw Edge

-0.6%

Effective Edge

-1.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.6% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.2%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -115

Raw Edge

-4.3%

Effective Edge

-5.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Michael Lorenzen · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Michael McGreevy · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T07:57:06.184903Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.508
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Michael Lorenzen / Michael McGreevy announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.508

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMichael Lorenzen / Michael McGreevy announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-106	-120	48.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers

2:35 PM · decision fi-ca50fe3ccbc47fe0

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.5%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -120

Raw Edge

-5.0%

Effective Edge

-7.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -7.0% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.5%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -106

Raw Edge

-1.0%

Effective Edge

-3.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Cade Povich · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Kumar Rocker · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T07:57:06.184903Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.495
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Cade Povich / Kumar Rocker announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.495

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSCade Povich / Kumar Rocker announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-120	-106	51.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants

4:05 PM · decision fi-ec2b1bd50d5640d2

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.3%

Fair Odds

-105

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -146

Raw Edge

-8.0%

Effective Edge

-9.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -9.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.7%

Fair Odds

+105

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +120

Raw Edge

+3.2%

Effective Edge

+1.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +1.7% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Troy Melton · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Logan Webb · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T07:57:06.184903Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.513
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Troy Melton / Logan Webb announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.513

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSTroy Melton / Logan Webb announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-155	+115	56.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-146	+114	55.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-150	+120	56.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

4:10 PM · decision fi-944c2e1109b73dd1

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.2%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -104

Raw Edge

-0.7%

Effective Edge

-2.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.2% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.8%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -105

Raw Edge

-1.5%

Effective Edge

-3.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Justin Wrobleski · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Eduardo Rodriguez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T07:57:06.184903Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.502
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Justin Wrobleski / Eduardo Rodriguez announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.502

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJustin Wrobleski / Eduardo Rodriguez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-104	-122	48.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres

8:20 PM · decision fi-3abbc5d53bfb9e55

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Cristian Javier · official_announced · matched

Home starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T08:04:45.360137Z

both starters must be officially announced

3 accepted paired book(s). both starters must be officially announced

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusboth starters must be officially announced

Book shop (3 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	+102	-136	46.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+108	-138	45.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 222 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=222
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:10 PM	-	Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	theScore Bet	+280	-	38.6%	24.3%	+14.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	1:35 PM	-	Grant Holmes (R)	theScore Bet	+280	-	37.9%	24.3%	+13.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:36 PM	-	Shane Bieber (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	37.4%	21.7%	+15.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	-	Michael Lorenzen (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	37.3%	21.7%	+15.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	2:10 PM	-	Matthew Boyd (L)	theScore Bet	+400	-	36.4%	18.4%	+18.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	12:16 PM	-	Brad Lord (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	35.8%	19.1%	+16.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:10 PM	-	Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	theScore Bet	+450	-	34.0%	16.7%	+17.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Nolan Arenado	Arizona Diamondbacks	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:10 PM	-	Justin Wrobleski (L)	theScore Bet	+450	-	33.8%	16.7%	+17.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	-	Michael Lorenzen (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	33.3%	23.1%	+10.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	12:16 PM	-	Brady Singer (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	32.8%	21.7%	+11.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	-	Michael McGreevy (R)	theScore Bet	+250	-	32.5%	26.3%	+6.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	2:35 PM	-	Kumar Rocker (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	32.5%	23.1%	+9.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	1:40 PM	-	Ryan Gusto (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	32.1%	19.9%	+12.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	1:40 PM	-	Grayson Rodriguez (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	32.0%	21.7%	+10.3%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:36 PM	-	Shane Bieber (R)	theScore Bet	+210	-	31.9%	30.1%	+1.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:10 PM	-	Connor Prielipp (L)	theScore Bet	+380	-	31.9%	19.1%	+12.8%	99	-
HR Chance Watchlist	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	1:35 PM	-	Cam Schlittler (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	31.7%	25.6%	+6.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	JJ Bleday	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	12:16 PM	-	Brad Lord (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	31.6%	20.8%	+10.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	12:16 PM	-	Brad Lord (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	31.3%	19.1%	+12.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Corbin Carroll	Arizona Diamondbacks	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:10 PM	-	Justin Wrobleski (L)	theScore Bet	+400	-	31.1%	18.4%	+12.7%	99	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	12:16 PM	100	88.3%	-757	Elly De La Cruz, CJ Abrams, JJ Bleday, Sal Stewart	Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:36 PM	100	87.4%	-696	Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Brandon Marsh	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	2:35 PM	100	87.4%	-691	Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Jake Burger, Coby Mayo	Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	100	87.3%	-685	Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Hunter Goodman, Willi Castro	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	1:35 PM	100	87.2%	-681	Ben Rice, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Trent Grisham	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	1:40 PM	100	86.5%	-641	Mike Trout, Kyle Stowers, Zach Neto, Josh Lowe	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	2:10 PM	100	86.4%	-635	Jac Caglianone, Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| Wind 13 mph OUT (SSE) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	1:35 PM	100	86.1%	-621	Bryan Reynolds, Brandon Lowe, Eddy Alvarez, Francisco Lindor	PNC Park HR factor 0.96 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.9%	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:10 PM	100	85.3%	-580	Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages, Nolan Arenado, Corbin Carroll	Chase Field HR factor 1.02	-
Watchlist	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	8:20 PM	100	84.4%	-541	Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-
Watchlist	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	1:35 PM	92	84.2%	-532	-	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	2:10 PM	100	83.3%	-498	Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery, Nathaniel Lowe, Braden Montgomery	Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:10 PM	100	83.2%	-496	Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, Kody Clemens, Ryan Jeffers	American Family Field HR factor 1.08	-
Watchlist	Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	4:05 PM	100	81.5%	-441	Dillon Dingler, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Riley Greene	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Shohei Ohtani — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+280) HR chance 38.6% | edge +14.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.234, OPS 0.945, ISO 0.253, TB/G 2.03
Statcast: barrel 16.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.4/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.579
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 25/107 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.24
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0222, xFIP 4.54, K% 16.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.338, xERA 4.86, whiff 20.1%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 1.091, K% 25.0% (32 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.070, OPS 0.962, ISO 0.286 (158 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Ben Rice — Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees (+280) HR chance 37.9% | edge +13.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.286, OPS 0.903, ISO 0.290, TB/G 2.04
Statcast: barrel 15.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.0/110.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.507
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 31/112 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0388, xFIP 4.54, K% 19.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.333, xERA 4.70, whiff 26.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.071, OPS 0.962, ISO 0.321 (310 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.451, xwOBA 0.354 (69 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Bryce Harper — Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies (+320) HR chance 37.4% | edge +15.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.212, OPS 0.869, ISO 0.247, TB/G 1.78
Statcast: barrel 11.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.3/113.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.509
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 24/118 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0440, xFIP 5.01, K% 16.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.404, xERA 7.43, whiff 22.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.068, OPS 1.002, ISO 0.323 (310 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.603, xwOBA 0.448 (75 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Jordan Walker — Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals (+320) HR chance 37.3% | edge +15.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.203, OPS 0.833, ISO 0.209, TB/G 1.92
Statcast: barrel 13.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.9/116.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.482
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 1/20 (5%) | Season 23/113 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0369, xFIP 4.77, K% 15.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.366, xERA 5.84, whiff 18.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.045, OPS 0.801, ISO 0.197 (357 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.489, xwOBA 0.349 (49 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Jac Caglianone — Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals (+400) HR chance 36.4% | edge +18.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.183, OPS 0.800, ISO 0.218, TB/G 1.72
Statcast: barrel 13.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.9/116.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.492
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 16/109 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0258, xFIP 4.07, K% 20.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.328, xERA 4.54, whiff 24.1%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.042, OPS 0.701, ISO 0.184 (118 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.747, xwOBA 0.475 (50 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Elly De La Cruz — Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals (+380) HR chance 35.8% | edge +16.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.206, OPS 0.860, ISO 0.230, TB/G 1.99
Statcast: barrel 14.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.0/116.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.489
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 19/97 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0276, xFIP 3.81, K% 20.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.318, xERA 4.24, whiff 20.7%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.038, OPS 0.782, ISO 0.191 (314 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.625, xwOBA 0.417 (32 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (4 PA)

Best HR Chance Andy Pages — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+450) HR chance 34.0% | edge +17.3%

Power baseline HR/G 0.164, OPS 0.794, ISO 0.188, TB/G 1.77
Statcast: barrel 7.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.1/109.7, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.440
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 17/116 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0222, xFIP 4.54, K% 16.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.338, xERA 4.86, whiff 20.1%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.231, K% 0.0% (13 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.042, OPS 0.885, ISO 0.227 (142 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Nolan Arenado — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+450) HR chance 33.8% | edge +17.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.153, OPS 0.749, ISO 0.187, TB/G 1.47
Statcast: barrel 7.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 85.2/107.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.361
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 16/111 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0318, xFIP 4.18, K% 19.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.327, xERA 4.51, whiff 19.4%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 1.196, K% 0.0% (8 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.047, OPS 0.811, ISO 0.231 (107 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Steven Kwan	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	2:10 PM	+1100	0.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate
Luke Keaschall	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:10 PM	+750	1.0%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal
Nasim Nunez	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	12:16 PM	+900	1.0%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Brayan Rocchio	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	2:10 PM	+650	1.3%	Lineup not confirmed \| Cold recent HR form
Masyn Winn	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	+600	1.4%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Andres Gimenez	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:36 PM	+900	1.4%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Weak batter split vs_lhp
Mauricio Dubon	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	1:35 PM	+700	1.5%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Thin BvP sample (4 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Xavier Edwards	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	1:40 PM	+750	1.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Jung Hoo Lee	Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	4:05 PM	+750	1.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Ernie Clement	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:36 PM	+700	1.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	4:05 PM	Logan Webb	Troy Melton	0.82	18.5%	49.7%	-	+0.0%
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:10 PM	Jacob Misiorowski	Connor Prielipp	1.08	16.8%	46.7%	-	+0.0%
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	2:10 PM	Davis Martin	Joey Cantillo	1.00	16.7%	46.6%	-	+0.0%
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	1:35 PM	None	J.T. Ginn	0.95	15.8%	45.0%	-	+0.0%
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	8:20 PM	None	Cristian Javier	0.85	15.6%	44.6%	-	+0.0%
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:10 PM	Eduardo Rodriguez	Justin Wrobleski	1.02	14.7%	42.9%	-	+0.0%
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	1:35 PM	Jared Jones	Sean Manaea	0.96	13.9%	41.3%	-	+0.0%
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	2:10 PM	Randy Dobnak	Matthew Boyd	0.93	13.6%	40.7%	-	+0.0%
Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	1:40 PM	Ryan Gusto	Grayson Rodriguez	0.88	13.5%	40.5%	-	+0.0%
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	1:35 PM	Cam Schlittler	Grant Holmes	1.18	12.8%	39.1%	-	+0.0%
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	Michael McGreevy	Michael Lorenzen	0.93	12.7%	39.0%	-	+0.0%
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:36 PM	Jesús Luzardo	Shane Bieber	1.10	12.6%	38.6%	-	+0.0%
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	2:35 PM	Kumar Rocker	Cade Povich	1.10	12.6%	38.8%	-	+0.0%
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	12:16 PM	Brad Lord	Brady Singer	1.02	11.7%	36.7%	-	+0.0%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

27 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins	90.7	93.2	100.0	5	Curveball (46% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 38.5%, put-away 32.5%, xwOBA 0.215, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays	70.3	71.2	73.5	4	Sweeper (48% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 31.8%, put-away 23.9%, xwOBA 0.268, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves	66.0	63.3	73.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 23.6%, xwOBA 0.268, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets	65.1	68.5	65.5	4	Slider (38% whiff, 35% usage)	Savant whiff 30.6%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants	60.0	55.9	70.0	6	Split-Finger (34% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	58.4	64.7	53.0	5	Changeup (41% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	54.7	59.5	53.5	5	Changeup (36% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers	50.2	48.6	52.0	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 23.3%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	50.2	50.6	51.0	6	Sweeper (37% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles	49.2	54.5	45.0	6	Slider (41% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers	49.1	44.2	56.0	5	Changeup (30% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cade Povich	Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers	47.8	53.4	41.0	5	Curveball (39% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees	46.1	51.4	41.0	6	Slider (39% whiff, 36% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals	46.1	48.2	43.5	5	Slider (43% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	45.6	49.0	42.5	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals	45.3	51.5	37.0	5	Sweeper (45% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels	44.8	44.5	45.5	7	Cutter (27% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres	44.6	52.5	34.5	7	Changeup (29% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates	44.2	44.8	42.0	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brad Lord	Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds	43.9	39.6	48.5	5	Slider (25% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	41.8	40.2	44.0	7	4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 49% usage)	Savant whiff 19.4%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	38.2	39.2	38.5	5	Changeup (24% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Chicago Cubs	34.7	30.9	38.5	5	Sweeper (35% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 18.7%, put-away 9.9%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	33.5	36.2	24.5	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 18.8%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.366, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies	31.8	36.2	27.5	7	Curveball (26% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 18.9%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins	27.6	42.0	8.0	4	Changeup (36% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.399, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies	24.6	42.3	5.5	6	Slider (37% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.404, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

27 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	15.7%	5.5	5.9	5.8	92	normal	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	R	22.6%	5.2	5.4	5.4	87	normal	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees	R	19.5%	5.0	5.0	5.0	84	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Cade Povich	Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers	L	20.1%	4.9	4.9	5.3	82	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals	L	18.6%	6.5	5.6	5.8	109	deep	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	R	18.7%	5.0	5.5	5.4	84	short	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals	R	19.6%	6.1	5.2	5.3	102	deep	full	37.00	63.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	L	27.0%	4.4	4.9	4.8	74	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	14.3%	4.2	4.6	4.5	70	short	full	24.50	75.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants	R	24.1%	5.9	6.2	6.1	99	normal	full	70.00	30.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres	R	21.5%	3.2	3.7	4.4	54	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.2 IP/start
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Chicago Cubs	R	16.1%	5.3	5.3	5.5	89	normal	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins	R	18.4%	5.0	4.6	4.7	84	short	full	8.00	92.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	22.9%	6.0	6.3	6.2	101	deep	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels	R	20.9%	3.6	4.0	4.0	60	short	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.6 IP/start
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins	R	42.9%	5.6	6.0	6.0	94	normal	full	100.00	0.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	24.4%	5.5	5.2	5.2	92	normal	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	21.9%	5.8	5.5	6.0	97	normal	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves	R	32.4%	5.3	5.8	6.0	89	normal	full	73.50	26.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	29.4%	6.6	5.9	6.1	111	deep	full	73.50	26.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets	R	27.2%	5.4	4.7	4.8	91	normal	full	65.50	34.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers	R	19.2%	6.2	6.2	6.2	104	deep	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	22.1%	5.0	5.5	5.4	84	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies	R	17.5%	4.7	5.5	5.3	79	short	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles	R	22.0%	5.3	5.0	5.1	89	normal	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	19.4%	5.3	4.6	4.9	89	normal	full	5.50	94.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Brad Lord	Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds	R	22.0%	1.9	2.3	4.7	32	short	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

14/14 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Grayson Rodriguez	Grayson Rodriguez Under	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	17.5	12.1	-5.4	31.1%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	short	4.7	84	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Jacob Misiorowski	Jacob Misiorowski Over	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	20.7	3.2	18.2%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Michael McGreevy	Michael McGreevy Under	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	14.9	-2.6	14.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.3	79	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.61 <= 3 min
Jesus Luzardo	Jesus Luzardo Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	20.6	2.1	11.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min
Jesús Luzardo	Jesús Luzardo Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	20.6	2.1	11.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min
Troy Melton	Troy Melton Over	Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	17.5	19.1	1.6	9.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.1	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Cam Schlittler	Cam Schlittler Over	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	17.5	19.0	1.5	8.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sean Manaea	Sean Manaea Under	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	16.0	-1.5	8.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Logan Webb	Logan Webb Over	Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	18.5	19.9	1.4	7.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Brady Singer	Brady Singer Under	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	17.5	16.2	-1.3	7.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.3	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Justin Wrobleski	Justin Wrobleski Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	18.7	1.2	7.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Eduardo Rodriguez	Eduardo Rodriguez Under	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	16.3	-1.2	6.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Matt Boyd	Matt Boyd Under	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	17.0	-0.5	3.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Matthew Boyd	Matthew Boyd Over	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	18.1	0.6	3.6%	B	MONITOR	research	deep	5.8	109	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

135 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
CJ Abrams	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.61	1.10	0.67	0.83	2.59 / Over	0.35	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nicky Lopez	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	2.59	1.49	0.55	0.55	2.66 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jake McCarthy	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.49	1.12	0.61	0.76	2.51 / Over	0.35	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Otto Lopez	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.44	1.34	0.61	0.49	2.66 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.40	1.08	0.72	0.59	2.46 / Over	0.35	season_games=97,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.38	0.97	0.69	0.72	2.41 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.36	1.06	0.60	0.70	2.56 / Over	0.35	season_games=116,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.35	0.97	0.58	0.80	2.23 / Over	0.35	season_games=116,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Luis Arraez	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.34	1.37	0.50	0.47	2.71 / Over	0.35	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ivan Herrera	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.29	1.22	0.54	0.54	2.18 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Noelvi Marte	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.26	1.23	0.51	0.51	2.20 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Trea Turner	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.23	1.09	0.70	0.44	2.57 / Over	0.35	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.23	1.04	0.52	0.67	2.32 / Over	0.35	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Bryce Harper	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.22	0.95	0.61	0.65	2.67 / Over	0.35	season_games=118,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.22	1.17	0.53	0.52	2.38 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
TJ Rumfield	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.17	1.09	0.49	0.59	2.20 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
JJ Wetherholt	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.17	0.98	0.72	0.46	2.21 / Over	0.35	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Kyle Schwarber	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.16	0.95	0.59	0.62	2.53 / Over	0.35	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Dansby Swanson	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	Over 1.5	2.15	0.74	0.74	0.66	1.99 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Alex Bregman	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	Over 1.5	2.13	0.99	0.62	0.53	2.06 / Over	0.35	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Miguel Vargas	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.13	0.87	0.67	0.59	2.24 / Over	0.35	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Willi Castro	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.11	0.96	0.59	0.56	2.15 / Over	0.35	season_games=99,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Chase DeLauter	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.10	1.06	0.45	0.59	2.11 / Over	0.35	season_games=100,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon Marsh	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.09	1.06	0.53	0.50	2.44 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nathaniel Lowe	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.08	1.17	0.46	0.46	2.08 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes