MLB Bets 2026-08-08

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	1024W–495L–0P	67%	-65.84 u	Last 14 days • 1519 settled
Grade A	23W–31L–0P	43%	-14.18 u
Grade B	1000W–459L–0P	69%	-47.94 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3281W–2083L–8P	61%	-209.33 u	All-time • 5372 settled
Grade A	250W–196L–0P	56%	-8.76 u
Grade B	3030W–1882L–8P	62%	-196.85 u

97 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter H+R+RBI	Alec Burleson	1.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter H+R+RBI	Brandon Lowe	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter H+R+RBI	Elly De La Cruz	1.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter H+R+RBI	Yandy Diaz	1.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter H+R+RBI	Yordan Alvarez	1.5	-128	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter Walks	Alec Bohm	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter Walks	Andy Pages	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter Walks	Austin Riley	0.5	-340	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter Walks	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter Walks	Kevin McGonigle	0.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter Walks	Ozzie Albies	0.5	-313	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter Walks	Sam Antonacci	0.5	-340	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Batter Walks	Yordan Alvarez	0.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	K Prop	Chase Burns	5.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	K Prop	Chris Sale	7.5	-137	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	K Prop	Gavin Williams	7.5	-122	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	K Prop	Gerrit Cole	5.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Chase Burns	2.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Gage Jump	3.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Gavin Williams	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Jackson Jobe	1.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Jacob deGrom	1.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Jake Bennett	2.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Robert Gasser	1.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Walbert Urena	2.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jake Bennett	5.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Pitcher Hits Allow	Landen Roupp	5.5	-137	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Pitcher Hits Allow	Max Scherzer	5.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Pitcher Hits Allow	Peter Lambert	5.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Pitcher Hits Allow	Seth Lugo	6.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Pitcher Hits Allow	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	5.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Pitcher Outs	Gavin Williams	17.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Pitcher Outs	Matthew Liberatore	17.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Pitcher Walks	Kyle Freeland	1.5	-180	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Run Line	Arizona Diamondbacks	+1.5	-113	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-08	Run Line	New York Yankees	+1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-07	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	6.5	-140	-	LOSS	-1.000	Nathan Eovaldi: 2.0 (line 6.5)
2026-08-07	K Prop	Jack Perkins	4.5	-129	-	LOSS	-1.000	Jack Perkins: 3.0 (line 4.5)
2026-08-07	K Prop	Zack Wheeler	6.5	122	-	LOSS	-1.000	Zack Wheeler: 6.0 (line 6.5)
2026-08-07	K Prop	Jose Soriano	4.5	-126	-	LOSS	-1.000	José Soriano: 3.0 (line 4.5)
2026-08-07	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-157	-	WIN	+0.637	CJ Abrams: 2.0 (line 1.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	528	55%	-19.42u	68	43%	-18.10u	248	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	468	58%	+8.44u	60	55%	-2.52u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	161	58%	+5.16u	18	83%	+7.91u	44	64%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1705	74%	-32.58u	897	74%	-25.31u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	531	56%	-23.52u	112	53%	-11.87u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	396	60%	-9.68u	96	66%	+6.79u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	53	70%	-0.98u	14	50%	-4.26u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	34	53%	-0.50u	2	50%	-0.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	4	25%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	2
YRFI	👀 WATCH	3	67%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	4
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	116	47%	-12.87u	6	67%	+0.80u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	58	40%	-10.94u	6	50%	-0.35u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	28	54%	-1.87u	24	50%	-2.98u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	576	52%	-54.63u	67	57%	-1.14u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 29 total candidate(s); season N 528, 14d N 68	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 6 actionable / 13 total candidate(s); season N 468, 14d N 60	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 161, 14d N 18	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 29/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 25 total candidate(s); season N 53, 14d N 14	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 262 total candidate(s); season N 34, 14d N 2	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 2 actionable / 14 total candidate(s); season N 116, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 58, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 24	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 6 actionable / 154 total candidate(s); season N 576, 14d N 67	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 154 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 785 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 224 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 762 pitcher(s), 3366 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 575 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1517 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 390 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays, Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, Athletics, Chicago Cubs, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Boston Red Sox, Miami Marlins, New York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Guardians, Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 30 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 335 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 29 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 27 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 26 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 2 line(s)/1 game(s); Earned Runs 26 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 96, fanatics 11, fanduel 3
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2806 market side(s) checked \| 2806 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 15 game(s) fetched \| 15 with ML odds \| 15 with total odds \| 2 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 154 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 623 \| batter bats 400 \| batter hand splits 145 \| pitcher HR splits 56 \| batter pitch-type 575 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 247 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 84 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation blocked

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	3:05 PM	-136	+127	-1.5 (+128)	1.5 (-155)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	4:11 PM	+207	-256	1.5 (+108)	-1.5 (-130)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	4:11 PM	+137	-166	1.5 (-153)	-1.5 (+126)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	+134	-162	1.5 (-150)	-1.5 (+125)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+118	-142	1.5 (-172)	-1.5 (+142)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	-149	+123	-1.5 (+113)	1.5 (-136)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	7:10 PM	-175	+144	-1.5 (-112)	1.5 (-107)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	+129	-156	1.5 (-164)	-1.5 (+136)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	+124	-150	1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	7:16 PM	-131	+109	-1.5 (+131)	1.5 (-158)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	+135	-163	1.5 (-157)	-1.5 (+130)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	7:16 PM	-110	-110	-1.5 (+153)	1.5 (-186)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	7:16 PM	+104	-126	1.5 (-199)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	8:11 PM	-182	+150	-1.5 (-106)	1.5 (-113)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:50 PM	-101	-120	-1.5 (+176)	1.5 (-216)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

3 Grade A | 42 Grade B | 970 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed	K Prop	Gavin Williams Over	GUA@SOX	7:16 PM	7.5	10.9	-122	DK Over 7.5 -122 \| exact	45.5%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -137	K Prop	Chris Sale Over	BRA@YAN	3:05 PM	7.5	9.8	-137	FanDuel Over 7.5 -125 \| best price	30.4%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 20% usage pitch	K Prop	Gerrit Cole Over	BRA@YAN	3:05 PM	5.5	7.1	-120	DK Over 5.5 -120 \| exact	28.6%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (26 play(s))

K Prop - Walbert Urena Over

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

K Prop - Michael King Over

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

K Prop - Peter Lambert Over

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 5.17

K Prop - Landen Roupp Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.7

K Prop - Jackson Jobe Over

Projection: 4.7Displayed: Over 4.5 +130Market line: majority 3.5 | avg 3.75Recommended: FanDuel Over 3.5 -148 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.75 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 3.75

Batter Hits - Jake McCarthy Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Willy Adames Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Michael Massey Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Royce Lewis Over

Projection: 1.6Displayed: Over 0.5 -180Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.17Recommended: Fanatics Over 0.5 -180 | exactOwn-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Batter Total Bases - Osleivis Basabe Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Colt Keith Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Nick Sogard Over

Projection: 1.6Displayed: Over 0.5 -185Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.25Recommended: Fanatics Over 0.5 -185 | exactOwn-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.25

Batter Total Bases - Lawrence Butler Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Max Muncy (2002) Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Tommy White Over

Projection: 1.6Displayed: Over 0.5 -190Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.17Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exactOwn-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Batter Total Bases - Jahmai Jones Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jacob Gonzalez Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Rhys Hoskins Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Myles Straw Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jared Young Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Colson Montgomery Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Justin Crawford Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Sam Antonacci Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Marcus Semien Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Isaac Collins Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

⭐ Featured Signals - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Gavin Williams Over 7.5 (-122) diff 45.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 7.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.8% / Under 48.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 51.8%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 7.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	7.5	-123	-104	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-130	+100	-
DK	7.5	-122	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	7.5	-128	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 10.9K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 45.5% vs 17% min; cushion +3.41K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.8% / under 48.2%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Gavin Williams: K/9 12.9, proj 10.9K over 6.1 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.9% | put-away% 24.4% | xwOBA 0.304 | top pitch: Sweeper (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 34.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 50 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .279 | OPS .755
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 50 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 22.9%, L7 28.3%, season 24.0%, BVP 28.0%/50 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.40 | Season Avg 7.74
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
K% trend: support +14.7 ppts (recent 47.0% vs season 32.3%, proj adj +7.3%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Chris Sale Over 7.5 (-137) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 7.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	7.5	-125	-105	Raw BestVerify
DK	7.5	-137	+107	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-125	-102	Recommended
Fanatics	7.5	-130	+100	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.8K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 30.5% vs 17% min; cushion +2.28K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.5% / under 45.5%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Chris Sale: K/9 11.1, proj 9.8K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.0% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.272 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Slider: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 36 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .121 | OPS .346
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 36 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 24.0%, L7 25.7%, season 24.5%, BVP 38.9%/36 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.10 | Season Avg 7.15
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 7.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -137 -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 (-120) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-120	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-128	+100	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 28.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.57K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.5% / under 48.5%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Gerrit Cole: K/9 10.0, proj 7.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.287 | top pitch: Slider (25% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Slider: 32.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 51 PA | K% 47.1% | BB% 13.7% | AVG .136 | OPS .528
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 51 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 21.7%, L7 19.6%, season 21.3%, active roster 20.9%/7 hitters, BVP 47.1%/51 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.6%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 19.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
K% trend: support +4.5 ppts (recent 30.3% vs season 25.8%, proj adj +2.2%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 20% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (42 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Chase Burns Over 5.5 (-123) diff 42.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -123

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-110	-
DK	5.5	-123	-104	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-118	-108	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 42.0% vs 17% min; cushion +2.31K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.0% / under 48.0%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Chase Burns: K/9 9.7, proj 7.8K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.2% | put-away% 21.0% | xwOBA 0.278 | top pitch: Slider (52% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 35.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 26 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .167 | OPS .492
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 26 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 21.4%, L7 26.1%, season 21.5%, BVP 30.8%/26 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.52
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: headwind -6.0 ppts (recent 22.7% vs season 28.7%, proj adj -3.0%)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 2.31K, diff 42.0%, books 100%)

▸ Pitcher Outs — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Gavin Williams Over 17.5 (-117) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	17.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-117	-113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 21.299999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 21.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.80 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 50 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .279 | OPS .755
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 22.9%, L7 28.3%, season 24.0%, BVP 28.0%/50 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 9.6%, L7 8.0%, season 8.9%, BVP 12.0%/50 PA (adj 1.05x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 18.13
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Matthew Liberatore Under 17.5 (-101) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 +101 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 +101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-134	+101	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-131	-101	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 14.204 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 18.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 4.9 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.19 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103) | Leash assessment adj: -0.6 outs (short leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 4.9 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.0 | pitch-count proxy 86
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 19 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .389 | OPS 1.032
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 24.2%, L7 21.5%, season 22.9%, BVP 15.8%/19 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 7.4%, L7 5.6%, season 8.0%, BVP 5.3%/19 PA (adj 0.88x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 4.9 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 17/22 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 14.00 | Season Avg 14.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 5.5 (-149) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+112	-149	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.63 over 6.5 IP (WHIP 0.87, BB% 5.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.5 IP (HIGH; season 6.7 IP/GS; recent 7.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.8 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 119 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .579
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 17.9%, L7 21.1%, season 19.3%, BVP 26.9%/119 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 16/20 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Peter Lambert Under 5.5 (-160) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.73 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.12, BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.09x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 57 PA | K% 8.8% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .423 | OPS 1.169
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 21.2%, L7 19.8%, season 22.0%, BVP 8.8%/57 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-160) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Landen Roupp Under 5.5 (-137) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.77 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 10.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .364 | OPS .955
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.2%, L7 20.6%, season 22.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Seth Lugo Under 6.5 (-155) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 6.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 6.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 5.4 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 16.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.99 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 105 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .198 | OPS .552
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.6%, L7 21.8%, season 21.8%, BVP 17.1%/105 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jake Bennett Under 5.5 (-126) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.84 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.06, BB% 5.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Bennett: 21 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .333 | OPS .900
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 29.5%, L7 24.7%, season 22.9%, BVP 14.3%/21 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Max Scherzer Under 5.5 (-146) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.15 over 3.9 IP (WHIP 1.56, BB% 9.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.9 IP (HIGH; season 3.8 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Max Scherzer: 233 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .225 | OPS .686
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 19.3%, L7 13.3%, season 23.1%, BVP 29.2%/233 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/8 (88%) | L20 7/8 (88%) | Season 7/8 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.38 | Season Avg 4.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/8 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

▸ Pitcher Walks — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Kyle Freeland Under 1.5 (-180) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.1327078269913793 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.20 over 5.5 IP (BB% 4.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.8% / under 60.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Freeland: 27 PA | K% 18.5% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .192 | OPS .645
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.5%, L7 22.4%, season 20.5%, BVP 18.5%/27 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.9%, L7 9.9%, season 8.6%, BVP 3.7%/27 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-180) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Robert Gasser Over 1.5 (-170) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.22 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.24, ERA 4.45)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 21 PA | K% 9.5% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .200 | OPS .714
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 20.4%, L7 18.4%, season 21.3%, BVP 9.5%/21 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jackson Jobe Over 1.5 (-147) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (MEDIUM; default 5.0 IP; assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 14.2 outs/4.7 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jackson Jobe: 14 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 21.4% | AVG .182 | OPS .539
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.9%, L7 21.5%, season 20.9% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs: no recent game-log sample

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Gage Jump Under 3.5 (-143) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 34.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.50 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.03, ERA 5.26)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Gage Jump: 17 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .561
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.6%, L7 16.9%, season 21.7%, BVP 29.4%/17 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Chase Burns Under 2.5 (-147) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.90 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.56, ERA 2.34)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 26 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .167 | OPS .492
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 21.4%, L7 26.1%, season 21.5%, BVP 30.8%/26 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 18/21 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob deGrom Over 1.5 (-139) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.55 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.27, ERA 4.52)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 37 PA | K% 35.1% | BB% 2.7% | AVG .143 | OPS .419
Opponent K profile: composite 26.5%, split 24.2%, L7 28.6%, season 24.3%, BVP 35.1%/37 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Gavin Williams Over 1.5 (-155) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.87 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 2.80, ERA 3.20)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 50 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .279 | OPS .755
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 22.9%, L7 28.3%, season 24.0%, BVP 28.0%/50 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-155) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jake Bennett Under 2.5 (-168) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -168 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+120	-170	-

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.25 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.90, ERA 2.95)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Bennett: 21 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .333 | OPS .900
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 29.5%, L7 24.7%, season 22.9%, BVP 14.3%/21 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-168) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Walbert Urena Under 2.5 (-143) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+107	-143	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.23 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.25, ERA 2.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.1% / under 54.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Walbert Ureña: 1 PA | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.8%, L7 17.8%, season 21.5% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 16/20 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Batter Walks — 15 play(s) (B 15)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Base projection 0.71 | production context adj 1.36x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
BVP vs Michael King: 10 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .929
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 60/115 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 31/56 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 60/115 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.71

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-280) diff 68.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 98/115 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 98/115 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-280) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-350) diff 66.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jackson Jobe: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/106 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/46 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 89/106 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-350); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-425) diff 63.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/102 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter Walks: 80/102 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-425); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Over 0.5 (-135) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.80 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.23x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/112 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 24/57 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 54/112 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.65

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-475) diff 58.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/111 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 93/111 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-475) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-313) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -313 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -313

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -313 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+218	-313	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/116 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/59 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 86/116 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-313) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-320) diff 55.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .445
BVP walk adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/112 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 91/112 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-320) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-340) diff 54.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/95 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 36/48 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 69/95 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-340) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-525) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 22 PA | 4/20 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .573
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/99 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 74/99 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-525); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-425) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 91/112 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 91/112 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-425); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-340) diff 53.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -340 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+235	-340	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/115 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 36/57 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 82/115 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-340) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-425) diff 51.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 26 PA | 7/26 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .654
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/112 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 83/112 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-425) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-280) diff 51.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/112 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 80/112 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-280); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-350) diff 51.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.70x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 16 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .450
BVP walk adjustment: 0.90x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/115 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 41/60 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 80/115 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-350) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-128) diff 96.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 96.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.63
Base projection 2.63 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.522, xSLG 0.808 (130 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 10 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 64/115 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/59 over 1.5 (70%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 64/115 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.63

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.4 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-144) diff 88.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 88.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.44
Base projection 2.44 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.401, xSLG 0.602 (28 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .946
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/112 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/60 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 36/52 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 68/112 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.44

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.3 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-132) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.412, xSLG 0.634 (29 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 11 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.246
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/110 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 63/110 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.29

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-146) diff 70.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 70.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.407, xSLG 0.625 (31 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/96 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/50 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.48 | Away Batter HRR: 28/46 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 58/96 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.34

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-134) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.382, xSLG 0.549 (49 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 64/115 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/61 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 33/54 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.67 | Day Batter HRR: 64/115 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR over-rate: L10 20% + L5 20% (both cold) — risk note

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 20%, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-131) diff 69.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-131	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.351, xSLG 0.503 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Robert Stock: 2 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/109 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 58/109 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.32

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-125) edge 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -125

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-115	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Aaron Nola xFIP 4.01
Max Scherzer xFIP 4.73
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 99 blended 50% (team 94)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.02
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Aaron Nola (RHP)
Away SP: Max Scherzer (RHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Run Line — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 1.5 (-113) edge 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 -104 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -113

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 -104 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✓!–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Michael Soroka (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model run margin: -0.6 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+16.24/$100
✓ Cover prob 61.7% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 10.9% ≥ 5%
✓ Arizona Diamondbacks home RL 75% (8 bets)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -113 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Brandon Pfaadt (RHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs RHP (neutral)
Chase Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 98)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 35% (team 107)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 70%, bullpen 30%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Yoshinobu Yamamoto elite xFIP (3.44)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — New York Yankees +1.5 1.5 (-155) edge 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig New York Yankees 1.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -155

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig New York Yankees 1.5 -147 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✓✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: -0.5 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+5.25/$100
✓ Cover prob 64.0% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 5.9% ≥ 5%
- No profile for New York Yankees — role hit rate + L5 gates skipped
✓ Odds -155 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Gerrit Cole (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Chris Sale (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 100)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Chris Sale elite xFIP (2.92)

⚠ Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (970 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 25 play(s) (B 7 | C 18)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Walbert Urena Over 4.5 (-155) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -155

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	-155	+121	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	4.5	-160	+115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	5.5	+120	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 31.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.42K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.3% / under 42.7%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); DK LOWER delta -0.67
Walbert Urena: K/9 8.6, proj 5.9K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.2% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.281 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Changeup: 38.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Walbert Ureña: 1 PA | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.8%, L7 17.8%, season 21.5% (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 4.75
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 5.5 (-106) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 -106; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
DK	5.5	-106	-121	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	5.5	-106	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 28.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.54K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.4% / under 51.6%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: K/9 8.0, proj 7.0K over 6.7 IP (season 6.7 IP/GS; recent 7.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.7% | put-away% 20.7% | xwOBA 0.275 | top pitch: Split-Finger (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Split-Finger: 45.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 119 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .579
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 119 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 17.9%, L7 21.1%, season 19.3%, active roster 17.4%/6 hitters, BVP 26.9%/119 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 17.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 17.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.05
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Kyle Freeland Over 3.5 (-121) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
DK	3.5	-121	-106	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-113	-113	-
Fanatics	3.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 24.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.85K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.6% / under 48.4%); own-line consensus 2/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kyle Freeland: K/9 7.6, proj 4.4K over 5.8 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.7% | put-away% 17.9% | xwOBA 0.349 | top pitch: Curveball (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Curveball: 24.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Freeland: 27 PA | K% 18.5% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .192 | OPS .645
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 16.5%, L7 22.4%, season 20.5%, active roster 18.9%/6 hitters, BVP 18.5%/27 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.43
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 24.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Robert Gasser Under 4.5 (-115) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-115	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	4.5	-115	-115	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.80K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.8% / under 50.2%); own-line consensus 2/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Robert Gasser: K/9 8.1, proj 3.7K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 15.4% | xwOBA 0.304 | top pitch: Cutter (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Cutter: 20.6% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 21 PA | K% 9.5% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .200 | OPS .714
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 20.4%, L7 18.4%, season 21.3%, BVP 9.5%/21 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.83
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Anthony Kay Over 3.5 (-136) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -136

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-147	+114	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-136	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-154	+120	-
Fanatics	3.5	-140	+105	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 13.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.49K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.4% / under 45.6%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Anthony Kay: K/9 7.6, proj 4.0K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 14.6% | xwOBA 0.342 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 31 PA | K% 9.7% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .653
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.1%, L7 21.9%, season 22.2%, active roster 18.1%/7 hitters, BVP 9.7%/31 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 21.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 3.91
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Seth Lugo Over 3.5 (-156) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-156	+121	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	-156	+122	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-150	+118	Recommended
Fanatics	3.5	-160	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 4.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.16K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.5% / under 42.5%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Seth Lugo: K/9 6.6, proj 3.7K over 5.7 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.6% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.352 | top pitch: Cutter (23% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Cutter: 24.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 105 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .198 | OPS .552
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 105 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 21.6%, L7 21.8%, season 21.8%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters, BVP 17.1%/105 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.6%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 88%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 4.30
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Bubba Chandler Over 4.5 (-126) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-120	-108	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-110	-120	-
DK	4.5	-126	-101	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-108	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	-115	-115	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 0.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.01K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.6% / under 47.4%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bubba Chandler: K/9 7.7, proj 4.5K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 16.1% | xwOBA 0.313 | top pitch: Slider (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 34.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.4%, L7 24.7%, season 22.6%, active roster 20.2%/6 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 65%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.2% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.45
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael King Over 4.5 (-161) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -161

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 5.5 +138; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	-161	+126	Selected
Fanatics	4.5	-160	+120	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+135	-180	-
FanDuel	5.5	+138	-178	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 21.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.98K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.2% / under 41.8%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); DK LOWER delta -0.67
Michael King: K/9 8.0, proj 5.5K over 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.1% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 23.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 92 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .202 | OPS .629
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 92 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.0%, L7 16.2%, season 21.4%, active roster 19.0%/7 hitters, BVP 30.4%/92 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.2%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 16.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.96
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Max Scherzer Under 3.5 (+102) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +102

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-133	+103	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-135	+105	-
DK	3.5	-130	+102	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-136	+106	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 2.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 19.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.68K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.3% / under 46.7%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Max Scherzer: K/9 7.4, proj 2.8K over 4.1 IP (season 3.8 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.7% | put-away% 11.5% | xwOBA 0.355 | top pitch: Curveball (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Curveball: 27.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Max Scherzer: 233 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .225 | OPS .686
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 233 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.3%, L7 13.3%, season 23.1%, active roster 20.8%/9 hitters, BVP 29.2%/233 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.6%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 77%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 13.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.8% (9 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.88 | Season Avg 2.88
Prop trend: K L10: 4/8 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Peter Lambert Over 4.5 (-148) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -148

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 5.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	-148	+116	SelectedRecommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+145	-190	-
FanDuel	5.5	+146	-188	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 18.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.83K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.3% / under 43.7%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); DK LOWER delta -1.00
Peter Lambert: K/9 9.6, proj 5.3K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.285 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 57 PA | K% 8.8% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .423 | OPS 1.169
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 57 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 21.2%, L7 19.8%, season 22.0%, BVP 8.8%/57 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.68
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
K% trend: support +4.7 ppts (recent 28.8% vs season 24.1%, proj adj +2.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Taj Bradley Over 5.5 (-162) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -162

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.83 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-165	+125	-
FanDuel	5.5	-162	+128	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	6.5	+120	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 6.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 17.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.97K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.5% / under 41.5%); own-line consensus 1/2 OVER (2 books); DK LOWER delta -0.50
Taj Bradley: K/9 9.5, proj 6.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Cutter (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Cutter: 24.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .333 | OPS .983
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 23.7%, L7 27.5%, season 21.2%, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 6.41
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Griffin Jax Over 5.5 (-103) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-103	-124	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 6.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 17.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.95K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.8% / under 52.2%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Griffin Jax: K/9 10.2, proj 6.4K over 4.9 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.4% | put-away% 25.2% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: Changeup (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Changeup: 28.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Jax: 60 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 18.3% | AVG .348 | OPS 1.088
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 18.7%, L7 22.7%, season 23.0%, BVP 23.3%/60 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/29 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 3.45
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +2.95 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Robert Stock Over 4.5 (+124) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +124

Selected market: Over 42.2% / Under 57.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+124	-158	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+128	-164	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.74K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.2% / under 57.8%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Robert Stock: K/9 8.4, proj 5.2K over 4.9 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 31.3% | put-away% 10.7% | xwOBA 0.349 | top pitch: Changeup (67% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Changeup: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Stock: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | AVG N/A | OPS N/A
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 21.9%, L7 26.8%, season 24.2% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 0/1 (0%) | L10 0/1 (0%) | L20 0/1 (0%) | Season 0/1 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 0/1 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Bradish Under 5.5 (-130) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -130

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-130	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 15.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.84K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.7% / under 53.3%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kyle Bradish: K/9 8.1, proj 4.7K over 5.4 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 23.9% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Curveball: 22.6% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 15.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .635
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.8%, L7 24.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.32
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob deGrom Over 7.5 (+109) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	7.5	+125	-165	-
DK	7.5	+109	-139	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+126	-162	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 8.6K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 14.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.11K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jacob deGrom: K/9 10.7, proj 8.6K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 33.7% | put-away% 23.4% | xwOBA 0.294 | top pitch: Changeup (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Changeup: 30.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 37 PA | K% 35.1% | BB% 2.7% | AVG .143 | OPS .419
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 37 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.5%, split 24.2%, L7 28.6%, season 24.3%, BVP 35.1%/37 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/21 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.43
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 7.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jake Bennett Over 4.5 (-125) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 4.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-135	+104	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-125	-102	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	4.5	-142	+112	-
Fanatics	4.5	-125	-105	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.48K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.4% / under 47.6%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jake Bennett: K/9 6.3, proj 5.0K over 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.1% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.271 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Bennett: 21 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .333 | OPS .900
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 29.5%, L7 24.7%, season 22.9%, BVP 14.3%/21 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/12 (25%) | Season 3/12 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.17
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Alvarez Over 4.5 (-142) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -142

Selected market: Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 4.5 -142; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-142	+112	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	4.5	-142	+112	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-150	+115	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.46K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.4% / under 44.6%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andrew Alvarez: K/9 7.9, proj 5.0K over 4.6 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slider: 33.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 22.5%, L7 28.6%, season 25.4% (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.94
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5
K% trend: headwind -8.1 ppts (recent 14.7% vs season 22.8%, proj adj -4.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 132 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matthew Liberatore Under 5.5 (-119) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -119

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	-107	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+114	-146	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 7.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.43K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 48.8% / under 51.2%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Matthew Liberatore: K/9 9.2, proj 5.1K over 5.2 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.9% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.338 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Curveball: 33.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 19 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .389 | OPS 1.032
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 24.2%, L7 21.5%, season 22.9%, active roster 21.7%/8 hitters, BVP 15.8%/19 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.86
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5
K% trend: support +3.2 ppts (recent 25.7% vs season 22.5%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 (-106) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-106	-120	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-115	-111	-
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 7.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.41K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.5% / under 51.5%); own-line consensus 2/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sandy Alcantara: K/9 7.2, proj 5.9K over 6.6 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 20.5 outs/6.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 18.1% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 74 PA | K% 14.9% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .328 | OPS 1.028
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 74 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 26.5%, L7 29.9%, season 25.2%, BVP 14.9%/74 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 9/24 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Aaron Nola Over 4.5 (+100) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +100

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-105	-123	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	+100	-127	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	-105	-125	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 7.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.33K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.2% / under 52.8%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Aaron Nola: K/9 9.0, proj 4.8K over 5.5 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.6% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Curveball: 24.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 84 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .284 | OPS .909
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 84 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 18.8%, L7 20.6%, season 19.5%, active roster 19.2%/6 hitters, BVP 19.1%/84 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.2% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.26
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brandon Pfaadt Over 3.5 (-144) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-144	+113	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-128	+100	-
Fanatics	3.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 6.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.21K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.7% / under 44.3%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Brandon Pfaadt: K/9 5.3, proj 3.7K over 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.5% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Curveball (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Curveball: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 187 PA | K% 19.2% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .302 | OPS .870
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 187 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.3%, L7 18.0%, season 20.5%, BVP 19.2%/187 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 5/20 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.60
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 3.5; cold exact-market hit rate
K% trend: headwind -5.1 ppts (recent 10.5% vs season 15.6%, proj adj -2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Landen Roupp Under 5.5 (-165) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.7 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-152	+116	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	4.5	-154	+120	-
Fanatics	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	5.5	+129	-165	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 5.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.32K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.2% / under 58.8%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Landen Roupp: K/9 8.3, proj 5.2K over 5.5 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.0% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.294 | top pitch: Curveball (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Curveball: 27.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .364 | OPS .955
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.2%, L7 20.6%, season 22.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.45
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.2 ppts (recent 17.8% vs season 24.0%, proj adj -3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jackson Jobe Over 4.5 (+130) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -148 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.75 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -148 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 4.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-156	+121	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
FanDuel	3.5	-148	+116	Recommended
DK	4.5	+130	-166	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.1% / under 58.9%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
BVP (active roster) vs Jackson Jobe: 14 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 21.4% | AVG .182 | OPS .539
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.9%, L7 21.5%, season 20.9% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: K: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — George Kirby Under 4.5 (+128) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +128

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-163	+128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-150	+118	-
Fanatics	4.5	-160	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.16K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 58.6% / under 41.4%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
George Kirby: K/9 7.7, proj 4.3K over 6.1 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Sweeper (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Sweeper: 20.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 30% usage
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 53 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .240 | OPS .623
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 15.7%, L7 18.3%, season 19.1%, active roster 15.9%/6 hitters, BVP 22.6%/53 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 15.7%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 18.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/21 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.24
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.95) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gage Jump Over 5.5 (-109) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -109

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-112	-115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-109	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-111	-115	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 1.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.08K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.3% / under 50.7%); own-line consensus 2/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Gage Jump: K/9 10.9, proj 5.6K over 4.9 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.3% | put-away% 19.1% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Slider (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Slider: 30.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gage Jump: 17 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .561
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.6%, L7 16.9%, season 21.7%, BVP 29.4%/17 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.62
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
K% trend: support +4.6 ppts (recent 29.9% vs season 25.3%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Run Line — Kansas City Royals +1.5 1.5 (-107) edge 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Kansas City Royals 1.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -107

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Kansas City Royals 1.5 -103 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (27)

[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: -0.3 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+26.91/$100
✓ Cover prob 65.6% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 16.1% ≥ 5%
✓ Kansas City Royals home RL 71% (7 bets)
✓ L5 RL 5/5
✓ Odds -107 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Seth Lugo (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Clay Holmes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.98)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 98)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 105)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | split consensus 44% (9 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: selected book disagrees | split consensus 44% (9 books) — posture note at C

▸ Pitcher Outs — 12 play(s) (C 12)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 18.5 (+129) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 18.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 18.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	18.5	+124	-170	-
DK	18.5	+129	-171	Selected
Fanatics	18.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 21.745 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 17.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.7 IP (season 6.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 7.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.44 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.9% / under 59.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 121, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.8 | pitch-count proxy 121
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 119 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .579
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 17.9%, L7 21.1%, season 19.3%, BVP 26.9%/119 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.9%, L7 8.9%, season 8.7%, BVP 6.7%/119 PA (adj 1.05x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.7 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 7.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 20.90 | Season Avg 20.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Seth Lugo Under 17.5 (-127) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-110	-125	-
DK	17.5	-105	-127	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 15.458999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.61 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 105 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .198 | OPS .552
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.6%, L7 21.8%, season 21.8%, BVP 17.1%/105 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 11.4%, L7 10.9%, season 10.9%, BVP 5.7%/105 PA (adj 1.11x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/23 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.80 | Season Avg 16.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.98 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.04 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.04 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jacob deGrom Under 17.5 (-108) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 17.5 -108; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-124	-108	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-122	-108	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	17.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 15.745000000000005 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.27 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.4% / under 48.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.2 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 82, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 82
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 37 PA | K% 35.1% | BB% 2.7% | AVG .143 | OPS .419
Opponent K profile: composite 26.5%, split 24.2%, L7 28.6%, season 24.3%, BVP 35.1%/37 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 10.8%, L7 12.1%, season 10.3%, BVP 2.7%/37 PA (adj 1.08x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.20 | Season Avg 16.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.75 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.75 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — George Kirby Over 17.5 (-207) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -207

Selected market: Over 63.1% / Under 36.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.75 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 18.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-220	+155	-
Caesars	17.5	-200	+149	Recommended
DK	17.5	-207	+154	Selected
Fanatics	18.5	+145	-210	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 19.249 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.73 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 63.1% / under 36.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.75 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 53 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .240 | OPS .623
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 15.7%, L7 18.3%, season 19.1%, BVP 22.6%/53 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 9.2%, L7 7.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 5.7%/53 PA (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.9%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 18.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Aaron Nola Under 17.5 (-110) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	17.5	-122	-108	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-120	-110	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 15.768 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.01 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.2 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 84 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .284 | OPS .909
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 18.8%, L7 20.6%, season 19.5%, BVP 19.1%/84 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 6.6%, L7 6.9%, season 7.3%, BVP 11.9%/84 PA (adj 0.94x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.20 | Season Avg 15.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Chris Sale Over 17.5 (-169) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -169

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -169 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	-
Caesars	17.5	-170	+125	-
DK	17.5	-169	+127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-170	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 2.92 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 36 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .121 | OPS .346
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 24.0%, L7 25.7%, season 24.5%, BVP 38.9%/36 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 8.0%, L7 9.9%, season 9.8%, BVP 8.3%/36 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 17.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -1.05 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael King Under 17.5 (+111) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +111

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	17.5	-145	+109	-
DK	17.5	-147	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 16.113000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.44 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 103) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 92 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .202 | OPS .629
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.0%, L7 16.2%, season 21.4%, BVP 30.4%/92 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 10.3%, L7 12.1%, season 9.0%, BVP 7.6%/92 PA (adj 1.09x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 9/23 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.90 | Season Avg 17.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Gerrit Cole Over 17.5 (-169) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -169

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -169 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	-
Caesars	17.5	-170	+127	-
DK	17.5	-169	+127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.733999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.80 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 51 PA | K% 47.1% | BB% 13.7% | AVG .136 | OPS .528
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 21.7%, L7 19.6%, season 21.3%, BVP 47.1%/51 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 8.3%, L7 6.7%, season 7.9%, BVP 13.7%/51 PA (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 17.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jake Bennett Over 17.5 (-157) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	17.5	-157	+117	-
DK	17.5	-157	+118	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.724 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.90 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Bennett: 21 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .333 | OPS .900
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 29.5%, L7 24.7%, season 22.9%, BVP 14.3%/21 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 9.7%, L7 6.1%, season 8.8%, BVP 9.5%/21 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 17.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sandy Alcantara Over 20.5 (-104) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 20.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 20.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 20.5 | selected line 20.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 20.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 20.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 20.5 -104; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	20.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	20.5	-104	-129	Raw BestVerify
DK	20.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 20.714 vs line 20.5 | DIFF% 1.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.5 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.15 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 20.5 | selected line 20.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.5 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 74 PA | K% 14.9% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .328 | OPS 1.028
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 26.5%, L7 29.9%, season 25.2%, BVP 14.9%/74 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 11.3%, L7 6.6%, season 8.5%, BVP 9.5%/74 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.5 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 20.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 10/24 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 20.20 | Season Avg 19.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 20.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 20.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 20.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Chase Burns Over 17.5 (-141) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	17.5	-143	+108	-
DK	17.5	-141	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.608 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.56 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 26 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .167 | OPS .492
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 21.4%, L7 26.1%, season 21.5%, BVP 30.8%/26 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 11.3%, L7 9.8%, season 9.2%, BVP 3.9%/26 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.30 | Season Avg 16.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Kyle Freeland Over 17.5 (-183) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -183 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -183

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -183 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-190	+138	-
DK	17.5	-183	+136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 17.514 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.18 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.4% / under 39.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Freeland: 27 PA | K% 18.5% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .192 | OPS .645
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.5%, L7 22.4%, season 20.5%, BVP 18.5%/27 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.9%, L7 9.9%, season 8.6%, BVP 3.7%/27 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/21 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 15.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +2.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — George Kirby Over 5.5 (-112) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.99 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 5.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 53 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .240 | OPS .623
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 15.7%, L7 18.3%, season 19.1%, BVP 22.6%/53 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.90 | Season Avg 6.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Aaron Nola Over 5.5 (-159) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -159 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.10 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 84 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .284 | OPS .909
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 18.8%, L7 20.6%, season 19.5%, BVP 19.1%/84 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Pfaadt Over 5.5 (-125) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	-105	-
DK	5.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.94 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 187 PA | K% 19.2% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .302 | OPS .870
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.3%, L7 18.0%, season 20.5%, BVP 19.2%/187 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/20 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 3.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kyle Freeland Over 6.5 (-126) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.7 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 3.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.19 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.39, BB% 4.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Freeland: 27 PA | K% 18.5% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .192 | OPS .645
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.5%, L7 22.4%, season 20.5%, BVP 18.5%/27 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.10 | Season Avg 6.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sandy Alcantara Under 5.5 (-103) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	-105	-
DK	5.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.86 over 6.4 IP (WHIP 1.13, BB% 6.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.4 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 20.5 outs/6.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 74 PA | K% 14.9% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .328 | OPS 1.028
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 26.5%, L7 29.9%, season 25.2%, BVP 14.9%/74 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 6.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Gage Jump Under 5.5 (-109) Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.17 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.61, BB% 10.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Gage Jump: 17 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .561
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.6%, L7 16.9%, season 21.7%, BVP 29.4%/17 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/13 (69%) | Season 9/13 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matthew Liberatore Under 5.5 (-127) Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 19 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .389 | OPS 1.032
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 24.2%, L7 21.5%, season 22.9%, BVP 15.8%/19 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Matthew Liberatore Over 1.5 (+145) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5899908059078693 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.9 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 38.2% / under 61.8%)
Opp batting adj: 0.88x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 19 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .389 | OPS 1.032
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 24.2%, L7 21.5%, season 22.9%, BVP 15.8%/19 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 7.4%, L7 5.6%, season 8.0%, BVP 5.3%/19 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 18 play(s) (C 18)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Griffin Jax Over 1.5 (-134) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.52 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.34, ERA 3.68)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Jax: 60 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 18.3% | AVG .348 | OPS 1.088
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 18.7%, L7 22.7%, season 23.0%, BVP 23.3%/60 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/29 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Alvarez Under 2.5 (-128) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.22 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 3.82, ERA 4.66)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.5% / under 52.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 22.5%, L7 28.6%, season 25.4% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/16 (75%) | Season 12/16 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Seth Lugo Over 2.5 (-170) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.80 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.61, ERA 4.22)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 105 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .198 | OPS .552
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.6%, L7 21.8%, season 21.8%, BVP 17.1%/105 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 2.5 (-169) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+127	-169	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.97 over 6.5 IP (xFIP 3.44, ERA 2.84)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.5 IP (HIGH; season 6.7 IP/GS; recent 7.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.8 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.2% / under 58.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 119 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .579
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 17.9%, L7 21.1%, season 19.3%, BVP 26.9%/119 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Landen Roupp Under 2.5 (-145) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+109	-145	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.72 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.74, ERA 4.15)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .364 | OPS .955
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.2%, L7 20.6%, season 22.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Freeland Under 3.5 (-155) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.2 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 8.6% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.31 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.18, ERA 6.45)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Freeland: 27 PA | K% 18.5% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .192 | OPS .645
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.5%, L7 22.4%, season 20.5%, BVP 18.5%/27 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Bradish Under 2.5 (-150) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.93 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.01, ERA 3.89)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 15.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .635
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.8%, L7 24.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Peter Lambert Under 2.5 (-134) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+101	-134	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.61 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.35, ERA 2.88)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 57 PA | K% 8.8% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .423 | OPS 1.169
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 21.2%, L7 19.8%, season 22.0%, BVP 8.8%/57 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Chris Sale Under 1.5 (+105) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.39 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 2.92, ERA 2.05)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 36 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .121 | OPS .346
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 24.0%, L7 25.7%, season 24.5%, BVP 38.9%/36 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 (+108) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.72 over 6.4 IP (xFIP 4.15, ERA 3.25)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.4 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 20.5 outs/6.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 74 PA | K% 14.9% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .328 | OPS 1.028
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 26.5%, L7 29.9%, season 25.2%, BVP 14.9%/74 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/24 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Max Scherzer Under 2.5 (+112) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +112

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-149	+112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.69 over 3.9 IP (xFIP 4.73, ERA 6.28)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.9 IP (HIGH; season 3.8 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Max Scherzer: 233 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .225 | OPS .686
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 19.3%, L7 13.3%, season 23.1%, BVP 29.2%/233 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.38 | Season Avg 3.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/8 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Aaron Nola Over 2.5 (-120) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.48 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.01, ERA 5.22)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 84 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .284 | OPS .909
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 18.8%, L7 20.6%, season 19.5%, BVP 19.1%/84 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robert Stock Under 2.5 (-139) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.41 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.13, ERA 4.14)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Stock: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | AVG N/A | OPS N/A
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 21.9%, L7 26.8%, season 24.2% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/1 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Liberatore Over 2.5 (-101) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-101	-132	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.53 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.19, ERA 4.60)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 19 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .389 | OPS 1.032
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 24.2%, L7 21.5%, season 22.9%, BVP 15.8%/19 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — George Kirby Under 2.5 (-162) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.60 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 3.73, ERA 3.56)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 53 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .240 | OPS .623
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 15.7%, L7 18.3%, season 19.1%, BVP 22.6%/53 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bubba Chandler Under 2.5 (-144) Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.73 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.94, ERA 4.39)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 21.4%, L7 24.7%, season 22.6% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael King Under 2.5 (-135) Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.17 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.44, ERA 3.37)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 92 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .202 | OPS .629
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.0%, L7 16.2%, season 21.4%, BVP 30.4%/92 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Pfaadt Under 2.5 (+101) Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.93 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.56, ERA 3.03)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 187 PA | K% 19.2% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .302 | OPS .870
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.3%, L7 18.0%, season 20.5%, BVP 19.2%/187 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 16/20 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 10/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 25 play(s) (C 25)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-234) diff 44.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -234 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -234 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+173	-234	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.84 (AVG 0.251)
Base projection 0.84 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.255 (54 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/37 (38%) | L5 8/20 (40%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 83/108 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 0.84
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter Hits: 40/53 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter Hits: 83/108 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.84

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nathan Lukes Under 1.5 (-253) diff 44.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -253 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -253

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -253 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	-
DK	1.5	+187	-253	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake Mangum Under 1.5 (-234) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+173	-234	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-267) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -267

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+196	-267	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-273) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	Recommended
DK	1.5	+201	-273	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.84 (AVG 0.225)
Base projection 0.84 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 26 PA | 7/26 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .654
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/39 (23%) | L5 4/19 (21%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 87/112 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.84
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/57 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter Hits: 87/112 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-263) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -263 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -263 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.90 (AVG 0.240)
Base projection 0.90 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.276 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 33 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/41 (20%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/115 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.90
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 51/60 under 1.5 (85%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter Hits: 42/55 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 93/115 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-262) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -262 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -262

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -262 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+193	-262	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.87 (AVG 0.234)
Base projection 0.87 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.383 (20 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/36 (19%) | L5 3/15 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/85 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.87
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/43 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter Hits: 34/42 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter Hits: 68/85 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Sal Stewart Under 1.5 (-260) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 1.5 -260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+192	-260	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.97 (AVG 0.255)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.269 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/37 (24%) | L5 5/19 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/115 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 46/60 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter Hits: 41/55 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 87/115 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bryce Harper Under 1.5 (-262) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -262

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+193	-262	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.91 (AVG 0.257)
Base projection 0.91 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.238 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 36 PA | 8/29 | HR 5 | K% 30.6% | BB% 19.4% | OPS 1.279
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 36 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/35 (31%) | L5 5/16 (31%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/117 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.91
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 47/60 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 45/57 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter Hits: 92/117 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Willson Contreras Under 1.5 (-242) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -242

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
DK	1.5	+179	-242	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.99 (AVG 0.288)
Base projection 0.99 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.371 (54 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 6/26 (23%) | L5 5/14 (36%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/105 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.99
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/54 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 39/51 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter Hits: 78/105 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Michael Busch Under 1.5 (-255) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -255

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -255 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+188	-255	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.92 (AVG 0.244)
Base projection 0.92 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.426 (30 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 7 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .821 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/41 (24%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 90/116 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.92
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/59 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 46/57 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Hits: 90/116 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-250) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+184	-250	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.286)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.305 (59 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 11 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .273
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/38 (26%) | L5 7/17 (41%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/98 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/52 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter Hits: 34/46 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 69/98 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-248) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -248 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -248 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+183	-248	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.256)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.350 (74 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/43 (21%) | L5 6/23 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 83/116 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 45/58 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 38/58 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter Hits: 83/116 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 (-256) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+189	-256	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.296)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.315 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 23 PA | 5/22 | HR 1 | K% 26.1% | BB% 4.3% | OPS .670
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 16/37 (43%) | L5 7/18 (39%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/106 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter Hits: 70/106 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alex Bregman Under 1.5 (-247) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+183	-247	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.98 (AVG 0.248)
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.373 (35 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/40 (28%) | L5 6/22 (27%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 86/114 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 49/59 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.85 | Away Batter Hits: 37/55 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter Hits: 86/114 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-220) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -220

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
DK	1.5	+163	-220	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+160	-215	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.257)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.357 (35 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/37 (30%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 87/115 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/58 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 43/57 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 87/115 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-216) diff 27.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -216

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+161	-216	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.27 (AVG 0.315)
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.170 (59 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Walbert Ureña: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/43 (16%) | L5 4/22 (18%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/113 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter Hits: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 69/113 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Seiya Suzuki Under 1.5 (-231) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -231

Selected market: Over 34.6% / Under 65.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+171	-231	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.272)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.264 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .700
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/38 (32%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/100 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/51 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 71/100 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-263) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -263 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -263 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+193	-263	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.298)
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252 (25 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/44 (27%) | L5 9/22 (41%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/101 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter Hits: 39/50 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter Hits: 71/101 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-253) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -253

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+186	-253	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.249)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.328 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/42 (31%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 84/114 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/59 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 84/114 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-255) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -255

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+188	-255	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.96 (AVG 0.259)
Base projection 0.96 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.378 (32 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 18 PA | 9/14 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.937
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/38 (26%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/108 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter Hits: 41/54 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 79/108 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 (-217) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -217 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -217

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -217 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+161	-217	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.15 (AVG 0.303)
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jackson Jobe: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/41 (32%) | L5 8/20 (40%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/106 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/46 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 40/60 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter Hits: 72/106 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 1.5 (-199) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -199

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
DK	1.5	+149	-199	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.289)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.353 (26 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/39 (33%) | L5 9/21 (43%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 84/117 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/59 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 43/58 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter Hits: 84/117 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-253) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -253

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+186	-253	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.15 (AVG 0.296)
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.412 (29 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 11 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.246
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/40 (20%) | L5 4/22 (18%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/110 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter Hits: 39/54 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 75/110 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-202) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -202

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
DK	1.5	+151	-202	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.29 (AVG 0.323)
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.300 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/42 (29%) | L5 5/22 (23%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/109 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 29/53 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter Hits: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 66/109 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 218 play(s) (C 218)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (+160) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Base projection 0.71 | production context adj 1.36x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
BVP vs Michael King: 10 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .929
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 60/115 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 31/56 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 60/115 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.71

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.6% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-110) diff 63.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.82 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 25 PA | 5/20 | HR 2 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .950
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/111 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/57 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 0.70 | Day Batter Walks: 59/111 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.65

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-115) diff 62.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.81 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.76
Base projection 0.76 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 8 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.175
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/115 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.76
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/63 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.76 | Away Batter Walks: 28/52 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.75 | Day Batter Walks: 63/115 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.76

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (+125) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.80 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 36 PA | 8/29 | HR 5 | K% 30.6% | BB% 19.4% | OPS 1.279
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 36 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/117 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/60 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 58/117 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.63

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (+130) diff 53.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 44/87 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 19/42 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 44/87 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.61

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-475) diff 50.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/114 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 86/114 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-225) diff 50.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/117 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/60 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 90/117 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-425) diff 50.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/117 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/60 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 90/117 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-375) diff 50.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/117 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/60 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 90/117 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-375) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 85/108 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 85/108 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-210) diff 50.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .455
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/115 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 77/115 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-310) diff 48.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/116 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 92/116 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-525) diff 47.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/109 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 87/109 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-330) diff 47.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Walbert Ureña: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/113 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 93/113 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-375) diff 47.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Walbert Ureña: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/113 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 93/113 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-330) diff 46.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/110 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/54 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 79/110 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-575) diff 46.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -575

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/115 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/61 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 76/115 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-320) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/114 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 87/114 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-300) diff 45.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/96 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 30/45 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 68/96 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-310) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 24 PA | 5/21 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .762
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/111 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/111 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.32

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-280) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 24 PA | 5/21 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .762
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/111 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/111 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-406) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -406

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+276	-406	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 4.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .946
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/112 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 81/112 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-292) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -292 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -292

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -292 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+204	-292	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 73/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 73/108 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-300) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-375) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-375) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-475) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-340) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-366) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -366 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -366

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -366 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+251	-366	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.5% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 74/108 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-330) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/114 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/56 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 87/114 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-215) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jackson Jobe: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 81/111 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/52 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 81/111 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-330) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 71.4% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 72/109 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-350) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 71.4% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 72/109 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-425) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 11 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.246
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-425) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 11 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.246
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-350) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/104 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 33/54 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 69/104 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Endy Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-180) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/106 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 73/106 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-550) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/106 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 73/106 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-270) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-255) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-140) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-215) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-280) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-450) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-225) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-155) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-525) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-230) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-310) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 33/53 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 73/108 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-359) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -359

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+247	-359	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-350) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-215) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 26 PA | 2/26 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .154
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/113 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/56 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 34/57 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 66/113 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-425) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 7 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .829 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 74/109 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-340) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/114 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 79/114 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-210) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.70x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 32 PA | 11/30 | HR 2 | K% 9.4% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.106
BVP walk adjustment: 0.90x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 73/113 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 33/57 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 73/113 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.45

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (+100) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/59 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 22/51 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 50/110 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.58

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-310) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-375) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-330) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-200) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-500) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy (2002) Under 0.5 (-400) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-215) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jahmai Jones Under 0.5 (-255) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-280) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.23x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/107 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 80/107 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-450) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/113 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 34/58 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 73/113 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-375) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-195) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-245) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-575) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -575

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-310) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-225) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-200) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-310) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/108 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 79/108 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-245) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-375) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-525) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-425) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-330) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-466) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -466

Selected market: Over 22.8% / Under 77.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+312	-466	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/98 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 72/98 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-404) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -404

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+275	-404	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-230) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+163	-230	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 (-254) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -254 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -254

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -254 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+180	-254	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-387) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -387 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -387

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -387 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+265	-387	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-364) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -364 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -364

Selected market: Over 26.7% / Under 73.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -364 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+250	-364	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-353) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -353

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+243	-353	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-140) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-165) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-230) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-270) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-225) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-350) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-375) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-525) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-375) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/107 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 83/107 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-500) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/116 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 87/116 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-255) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 19 PA | 8/17 | HR 0 | K% 10.5% | BB% 5.3% | OPS 1.056
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 76/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 76/111 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (+120) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/112 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/56 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 21/56 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 48/112 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.51

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-194) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -194 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -194 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+139	-194	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 23 PA | 0/21 | HR 0 | K% 60.9% | BB% 8.7% | OPS .087
BVP walk adjustment: 1.01x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/116 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/59 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 74/116 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-310) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-375) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-310) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-210) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-180) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-270) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sung-Mun Song Under 0.5 (-255) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-280) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/112 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 74/112 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-264) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -264

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+186	-264	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 75/115 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/60 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 75/115 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.46

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Angel Genao Under 0.5 (-425) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-500) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-180) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-140) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-350) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-500) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-475) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-330) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
BVP vs Michael King: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/115 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 85/115 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-425) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-185) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-450) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-400) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rortvedt Under 0.5 (-340) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-330) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-425) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-425) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-165) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 23 PA | 3/20 | HR 0 | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.7% | OPS .467
BVP walk adjustment: 1.01x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/106 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 28/54 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 65/106 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-320) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -320 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+222	-320	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/106 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 75/106 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Riley Greene Over 0.5 (-105) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/114 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/57 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 25/57 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 49/114 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.53

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-450) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-165) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-215) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-215) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-165) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-230) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-195) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-300) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-245) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-244) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -244 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -244

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -244 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+173	-244	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 58/93 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/50 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 27/43 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 58/93 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-245) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
BVP vs Michael King: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 75/113 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-185) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-225) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-170) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-310) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-170) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brady House Under 0.5 (-400) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-310) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-255) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Trevino Under 0.5 (-425) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-450) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/111 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 82/111 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-525) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-450) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-340) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — John Rave Under 0.5 (-310) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-300) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
BVP vs Michael King: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 65/92 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/47 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 35/45 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 65/92 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-300) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 25 PA | 4/21 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 8.0% | OPS .488
BVP walk adjustment: 0.98x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/112 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 76/112 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-120) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 43/103 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/53 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 24/50 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 43/103 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.54

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-375) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-400) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-525) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-300) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-280) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-215) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-265) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-170) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-165) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 (+120) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 45/117 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/58 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 28/59 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 45/117 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.49

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-240) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jake Bennett: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 65/104 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/48 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 65/104 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-350) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 70/112 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 33/56 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 70/112 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-255) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.650 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/116 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 71/116 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-525) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Robert Stock: 2 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/109 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 73/109 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-170) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Robert Stock: 2 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/109 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 73/109 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 (+100) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 40/96 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/50 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 18/46 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 40/96 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.50

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-276) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -276 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -276

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -276 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+194	-276	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.5% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 59/96 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/42 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 59/96 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-347) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -347

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+239	-347	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 66/110 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 27/54 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 66/110 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-375) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/106 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 80/106 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-185) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/109 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 73/109 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-240) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/98 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 33/49 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 71/98 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-255) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/114 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 81/114 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-296) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -296 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -296

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -296 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+207	-296	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.5% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/111 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/49 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 42/62 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 72/111 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-280) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 18 PA | 4/16 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .771
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/88 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/42 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 30/46 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 54/88 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-230) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .558
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/86 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/48 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 24/38 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 54/86 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-379) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -379 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -379

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -379 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+259	-379	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 74/113 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (+145) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.80
Base projection 0.80 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/97 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/48 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter Walks: 28/49 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter Walks: 53/97 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-230) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/109 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 75/109 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-215) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/114 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/59 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 66/114 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-450) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/115 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/59 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 70/115 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-170) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 11 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.421
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/109 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/54 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 31/55 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 64/109 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-280) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 58/82 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/43 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 32/39 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 58/82 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-155) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jackson Jobe: 3 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 66.7% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 73/116 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 73/116 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-125) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 0.66x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 23 PA | 5/22 | HR 1 | K% 26.1% | BB% 4.3% | OPS .670
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/106 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/49 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 30/57 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.67 | Day Batter Walks: 55/106 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-165) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.67x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 16 PA | 4/15 | HR 1 | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .779
BVP walk adjustment: 0.90x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/113 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/56 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 32/57 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 63/113 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-210) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/105 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 32/53 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 67/105 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-210) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/107 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 75/107 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-225) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/110 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 78/110 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-210) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 7 PA | 5/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.143 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/115 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/56 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 75/115 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Over 0.5 (+125) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 43/115 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/60 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 18/55 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 43/115 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-244) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -244

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+173	-244	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/108 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 67/108 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-265) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.35x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
BVP vs Michael King: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .250
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/103 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 36/48 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 73/103 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (+120) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 7 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .821 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 54/116 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.67 | Day Batter Walks: 54/116 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-320) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 11 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .273
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 62/98 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 25/46 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 62/98 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pedro Ramirez Over 0.5 (+215) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +215 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +215

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 35/85 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/43 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 16/42 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 35/85 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 29.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 (+140) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 35/85 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/43 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 16/42 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 35/85 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-165) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .700
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/100 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/51 under 0.5 (49%), avg 0.69 | Away Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 60/100 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-280) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 11 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 18.2% | BB% 27.3% | OPS 1.511
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 72/109 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (+100) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/118 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.78 | Away Batter Walks: 22/60 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 53/118 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-340) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 18 PA | 9/14 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.937
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 72/108 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Over 0.5 (+120) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 42/105 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/54 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 19/51 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 42/105 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-200) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/99 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 26/45 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 61/99 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 (+145) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 11 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | OPS 1.421
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/114 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/56 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 24/58 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 50/114 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-265) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 16 PA | 5/15 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .775
BVP walk adjustment: 0.90x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/114 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 70/114 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Over 0.5 (+170) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/113 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/58 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 22/55 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 42/113 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (-120) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .432
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/113 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 24/56 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 55/113 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (+110) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/105 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/56 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 20/49 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 40/105 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Over 0.5 (+150) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/107 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/53 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 16/54 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 43/107 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Stowers Over 0.5 (+135) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 33/92 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/44 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 17/48 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 33/92 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-170) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
BVP vs Michael King: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/110 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 32/53 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 69/110 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 (+130) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/117 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/59 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 23/58 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 45/117 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (+180) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 12 PA | 5/11 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS 1.409
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/111 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 14/53 over 0.5 (26%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 28/58 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 42/111 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Over 0.5 (+135) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.23x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 39/115 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/57 over 0.5 (28%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 23/58 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 39/115 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 148 play(s) (C 148)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+129) diff 96.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 96.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.63
Base projection 2.63 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.522, xSLG 0.808 (130 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 10 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 64/115 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/59 over 1.5 (70%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 64/115 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.63

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (1 books)

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+124) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.412, xSLG 0.634 (29 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 11 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.246
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/110 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 63/110 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.29

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (-103) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.377 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 11 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 18.2% | BB% 27.3% | OPS 1.511
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/109 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 56/109 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+100) diff 58.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.504, xSLG 0.708 (28 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/112 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/56 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 65/112 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-113) diff 58.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.345, xSLG 0.423 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/118 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/58 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.36 | Away Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 67/118 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (-112) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.270, xSLG 0.287 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/112 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 36/57 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 64/112 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-144) diff 53.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.301, xSLG 0.370 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 25 PA | 5/20 | HR 2 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .950
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/111 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.32 | Away Batter HRR: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 50/111 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-156) diff 52.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.0% / Under 43.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.440 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/114 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.51 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 56/114 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-119) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.48
Base projection 2.48 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.332, xSLG 0.419 (79 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/114 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/57 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 35/57 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.60 | Day Batter HRR: 67/114 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-130) diff 52.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.253, xSLG 0.390 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/106 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 52/106 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-152) diff 51.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.321 (66 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/115 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 58/115 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-126) diff 51.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.294 (25 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 52/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.71 | Away Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 52/101 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Freeman Over 1.5 (+114) diff 48.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.403, xSLG 0.481 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 32 PA | 11/30 | HR 2 | K% 9.4% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.106
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/113 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 34/57 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.53 | Day Batter HRR: 60/113 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-130) diff 48.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.403, xSLG 0.481 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 32 PA | 11/30 | HR 2 | K% 9.4% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.106
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/113 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 34/57 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.53 | Day Batter HRR: 60/113 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-154) diff 48.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.402, xSLG 0.591 (60 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/113 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 58/113 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-142) diff 47.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.384 (63 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 64/111 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 30/53 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 64/111 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-139) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.378, xSLG 0.528 (32 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 18 PA | 9/14 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.937
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/108 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 50/108 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-121) diff 45.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.274, xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/115 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/59 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 63/115 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Endy Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-105) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.415, xSLG 0.593 (43 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/106 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/55 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 61/106 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+100) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.415, xSLG 0.593 (43 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/106 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/55 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 61/106 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-139) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.331, xSLG 0.331 (30 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/110 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 54/110 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-133) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.448 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .445
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/112 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 59/112 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-116) diff 42.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.221, xSLG 0.290 (54 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/93 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/50 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.58 | Away Batter HRR: 24/43 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 56/93 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-132) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.394 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 16 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .450
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/115 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 34/60 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 61/115 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-130) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.182, xSLG 0.257 (35 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/107 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.03 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 30/55 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.65 | Day Batter HRR: 57/107 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-150) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-150	+113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jackson Jobe: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/106 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/46 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 36/60 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 58/106 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-108) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.457 (66 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/110 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 56/110 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+121) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.359, xSLG 0.459 (68 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 55/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-102) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.351, xSLG 0.537 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 23 PA | 0/21 | HR 0 | K% 60.9% | BB% 8.7% | OPS .087
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/116 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 36/57 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.51 | Day Batter HRR: 68/116 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-114) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.499, xSLG 0.887 (23 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/114 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 56/114 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+106) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.287 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/113 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 58/113 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (+104) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.362 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 55/98 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/49 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 55/98 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+111) diff 37.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.317, xSLG 0.364 (126 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/113 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 53/113 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (-119) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.246, xSLG 0.289 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 19 PA | 8/17 | HR 0 | K% 10.5% | BB% 5.3% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 56/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-117) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.424, xSLG 0.446 (31 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 11 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.421
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 54/109 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-105) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jackson Jobe: 3 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 66.7% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/116 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 61/116 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-148) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.307 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/115 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 55/115 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-132) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-132	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.361 (28 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/112 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 34/57 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 59/112 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+120) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.298, xSLG 0.402 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/116 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/59 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 63/116 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-124) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.477 (74 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/116 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 59/116 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (+124) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.448 (131 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 51/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (+103) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.192 (29 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/104 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 30/54 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 53/104 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-159) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.170, xSLG 0.230 (59 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Walbert Ureña: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 72/113 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/57 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 72/113 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-102) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.352, xSLG 0.469 (36 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/97 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 47/97 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+125) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.307, xSLG 0.382 (104 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/92 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter HRR: 46/92 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-135) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.286, xSLG 0.375 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 7 PA | 5/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.143 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/115 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 65/115 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (-113) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.251, xSLG 0.306 (36 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/114 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 57/114 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+108) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.311, xSLG 0.263 (10 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 18 PA | 4/16 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .771
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 52/88 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/42 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 32/46 over 1.5 (70%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 52/88 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (-112) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.364 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/87 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/45 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 22/42 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 41/87 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+112) diff 25.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.322, xSLG 0.412 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/111 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 58/111 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Young Over 1.5 (+121) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/117 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 56/117 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (+104) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/117 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 56/117 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+121) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.242, xSLG 0.285 (65 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/113 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 57/113 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-147) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-147	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 26 PA | 7/26 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .654
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/112 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 49/112 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+105) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jackson Jobe: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/111 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 51/111 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (-171) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.1% / Under 40.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.287 (54 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/108 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 49/108 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+101) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.380 (67 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/114 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 55/114 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-125) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.292 (39 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/114 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/58 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 59/114 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (+113) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.365 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 7 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .829 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/109 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 49/109 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-136) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-136	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.394 (15 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .558
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 44/86 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 15/38 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter HRR: 44/86 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-132) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.291, xSLG 0.419 (53 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/92 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 42/92 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 (-101) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.191, xSLG 0.175 (27 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 24 PA | 5/21 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .762
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/111 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.19 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/55 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 58/111 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-114) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.191, xSLG 0.175 (27 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 24 PA | 5/21 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .762
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/111 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.19 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/55 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 58/111 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (-112) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.235, xSLG 0.314 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 16 PA | 5/15 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .775
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/114 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 55/114 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (-131) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.216, xSLG 0.267 (43 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 23 PA | 3/20 | HR 0 | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.7% | OPS .467
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/106 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 48/106 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (-105) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.222, xSLG 0.225 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/108 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 55/108 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Ward Over 1.5 (+135) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.228, xSLG 0.271 (34 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 8 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.175
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 51/115 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/63 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 51/115 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Over 1.5 (-115) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.208, xSLG 0.156 (23 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/108 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 48/108 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (-101) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.289 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/96 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 25/45 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 51/96 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-109) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.401 (24 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 26 PA | 2/26 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .154
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/113 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 59/113 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 (-161) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.364, xSLG 0.466 (39 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/112 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/56 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter HRR: 33/56 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter HRR: 71/112 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+101) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.213, xSLG 0.281 (67 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/116 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 56/116 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andres Gimenez Under 1.5 (-152) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.347 (32 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/111 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/55 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter HRR: 34/56 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter HRR: 71/111 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-136) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.302 (72 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 61/117 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/58 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 61/117 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Under 2.5 (-126) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	-104	-129	-
DK	2.5	-106	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.29 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.371, xSLG 0.521 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/105 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 under 2.5 (57%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 33/51 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 64/105 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Under 2.5 (-148) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.30 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.39
Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.370 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 23 PA | 5/22 | HR 1 | K% 26.1% | BB% 4.3% | OPS .670
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/106 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/49 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 27/57 under 2.5 (47%), avg 2.67 | Day Batter HRR: 56/106 under 2.5 (53%), avg 2.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (-108) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.230, xSLG 0.289 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 53/108 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-168) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -168 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.412 (116 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/103 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter HRR: 28/48 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 66/103 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Over 1.5 (-102) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-102	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.368, xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 33/87 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/42 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 33/87 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-126) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-118) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+101) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rortvedt Over 1.5 (+117) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (+120) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (-114) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (-111) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (-105) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (+110) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+112) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 1.5 (+117) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Abimelec Ortiz Over 1.5 (+123) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Matt McLain Over 1.5 (+134) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Under 2.5 (-150) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 2.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+113	-150	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.37 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.238, xSLG 0.266 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 36 PA | 8/29 | HR 5 | K% 30.6% | BB% 19.4% | OPS 1.279
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 36 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 74/117 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/60 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 38/57 under 2.5 (67%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 74/117 under 2.5 (63%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (+110) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cooper Pratt Over 1.5 (-105) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (-119) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (+100) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+121) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.4% / Under 57.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Over 1.5 (+124) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.259, xSLG 0.363 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/115 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter HRR: 48/115 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Osleivis Basabe Over 1.5 (+125) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (-115) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (-101) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (-101) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daniel Susac Over 1.5 (+103) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Baez Over 1.5 (+115) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-145	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Clark Over 1.5 (+119) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +119; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach McKinstry Over 1.5 (+120) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drew Gilbert Over 1.5 (+130) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Koss Over 1.5 (+134) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+100) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Connor Wong Over 1.5 (+103) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (-109) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (-118) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jahmai Jones Over 1.5 (+115) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (-149) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-154	+116	-
DK	1.5	-149	+112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-170	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (-127) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (-113) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-113	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (-108) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+100) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 (+102) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ronny Simon Over 1.5 (+119) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Polanco Over 1.5 (+128) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Under 2.5 (-170) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 2.5 -170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+125	-170	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+128	-170	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.42 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/109 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/53 under 2.5 (51%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 37/56 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 64/109 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-122) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (-105) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (+108) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (+114) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (-123) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Blaze Jordan Over 1.5 (-118) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nelson Velazquez Over 1.5 (-110) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (-108) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (-106) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (-103) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+105) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Griffin Conine Over 1.5 (+112) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Moises Ballesteros Over 1.5 (+134) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (+128) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.341 (30 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 41/96 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/42 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 41/96 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+115) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 (+129) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brendan Donovan Over 1.5 (+132) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 (-151) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -151 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.229, xSLG 0.237 (35 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 12 PA | 5/11 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS 1.409
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/111 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 63/111 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcus Semien Under 1.5 (-170) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.169, xSLG 0.194 (72 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/98 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter HRR: 27/49 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 62/98 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-104) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.243, xSLG 0.279 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 16 PA | 4/15 | HR 1 | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .779
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/113 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 51/113 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Under 1.5 (+102) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-136	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Under 1.5 (-107) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jesus Sanchez Under 1.5 (-134) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Myles Straw Under 1.5 (-156) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 (+102) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.079, xSLG 0.114 (21 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/115 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 56/115 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ Batter Total Bases — 262 play(s) (C 256 | D 6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 418.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 418.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.808 (130 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 10 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/115 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 49/59 over 0.5 (83%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 33/56 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 82/115 over 0.5 (71%), avg 2.31

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 418% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Lowe Over 0.5 (-140) diff 322.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 322.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.503 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Robert Stock: 2 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 38/53 over 0.5 (72%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 74/109 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.92

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 322% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-140) diff 303.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 303.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.634 (29 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 11 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.246
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 77/110 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/56 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 77/110 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.76

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 304% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 0.5 (-180) diff 303.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 303.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.634 (29 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 11 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.246
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 77/110 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/56 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 77/110 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.76

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 304% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Freeman Over 0.5 (-180) diff 274.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.87 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 274.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.481 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 32 PA | 11/30 | HR 2 | K% 9.4% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.106
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/56 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 43/57 over 0.5 (75%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter TB: 83/113 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.81

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 274% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 0.5 (-165) diff 272.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.86 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 272.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.459 (68 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 72/111 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -1.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/49 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 38/62 over 0.5 (61%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 72/111 over 0.5 (65%), avg 2.03

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 273% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 0.5 (-165) diff 248.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 248.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.364 (126 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/113 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/58 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 71/113 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.71

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 248% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-165) diff 242.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 242.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.517 (20 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/103 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 32/50 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 62/103 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.68

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 243% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 0.5 (-190) diff 236.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 236.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.287 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/113 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/58 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 37/55 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 77/113 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.65

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 237% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pedro Pages Over 0.5 (-140) diff 232.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 232.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 16 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .450
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/115 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/55 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 43/60 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 81/115 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.77

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 233% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 0.5 (-130) diff 222.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rortvedt Over 0.5 (-140) diff 222.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Kepler Over 0.5 (-130) diff 222.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-130) diff 222.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Over 0.5 (-160) diff 222.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 0.5 (-160) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 0.5 (-165) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Tena Over 0.5 (-130) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt McLain Over 0.5 (-130) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorbit Vivas Over 0.5 (-130) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Abimelec Ortiz Over 0.5 (-160) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Keibert Ruiz Over 0.5 (-180) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 0.5 (-180) diff 221.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.705 (31 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/112 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 41/58 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 73/112 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.56

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willy Adames Over 0.5 (-180) diff 220.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jackson Jobe: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/52 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 66/111 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.60

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 0.5 (-180) diff 219.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.575 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/53 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 36/58 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 67/111 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.53

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Massey Over 0.5 (-190) diff 218.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Isbel Over 0.5 (-150) diff 218.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — John Rave Over 0.5 (-130) diff 218.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 (-150) diff 218.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.448 (131 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/57 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 35/53 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 71/110 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.53

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nicky Lopez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 218.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.230 (59 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Walbert Ureña: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 85/113 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/57 over 0.5 (77%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 41/56 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 85/113 over 0.5 (75%), avg 1.88

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 0.5 (-180) diff 218.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (-130) diff 218.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 0.5 (-165) diff 218.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cooper Pratt Over 0.5 (-160) diff 218.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Martin Over 0.5 (-180) diff 218.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Caratini Over 0.5 (-140) diff 218.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Jarvis Over 0.5 (-130) diff 217.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 (-120) diff 217.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 (-115) diff 217.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Jones Over 0.5 (-110) diff 217.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Baez Over 0.5 (-170) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+130	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Osleivis Basabe Over 0.5 (-180) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 0.5 (-180) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Clark Over 0.5 (-165) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (-150) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 0.5 (-180) diff 214.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.382 (104 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 56/92 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/47 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 28/45 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 56/92 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.57

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 0.5 (-185) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-185	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+152	-209	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 (-180) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy (2002) Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 0.5 (-190) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jahmai Jones Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alika Williams Over 0.5 (-130) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Ornelas Over 0.5 (-110) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Gonzalez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 213.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 (-180) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (-140) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (-165) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 (-110) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Beck Over 0.5 (-160) diff 213.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 0.5 (-165) diff 211.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.402 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/116 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/59 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 78/116 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.67

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leody Taveras Over 0.5 (-150) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Beavers Over 0.5 (-165) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 (-160) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 0.5 (-165) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 0.5 (-140) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Evan Carter Over 0.5 (-160) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 (-115) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colton Cowser Over 0.5 (-115) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 0.5 (-165) diff 209.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.285 (65 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/113 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 38/58 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 73/113 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.67

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Owen Caissie Over 0.5 (-120) diff 209.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 0.5 (-190) diff 209.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (-150) diff 209.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joe Mack Over 0.5 (-130) diff 209.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis d'Arnaud Over 0.5 (-120) diff 209.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 0.5 (-180) diff 209.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 0.5 (-165) diff 209.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brendan Donovan Over 0.5 (-150) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-130) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 0.5 (-180) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Richie Palacios Over 0.5 (-120) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Walls Over 0.5 (-130) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 0.5 (-160) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Emerson Over 0.5 (-110) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rhys Hoskins Over 0.5 (-130) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +199; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Hedges Over 0.5 (-130) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 (-150) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tristan Peters Over 0.5 (-130) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Romo Over 0.5 (+110) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Myles Straw Over 0.5 (-180) diff 202.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-165) diff 201.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/117 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/60 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 78/117 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.50

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 201% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-130) diff 201.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/117 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/60 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 78/117 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.50

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 201% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Over 0.5 (-190) diff 201.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/117 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/60 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 78/117 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.50

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 201% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 0.5 (-180) diff 201.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.323 (32 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/52 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 68/107 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.57

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 201% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 (-150) diff 192.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 192.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.118 (31 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 71.4% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/109 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/52 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 62/109 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 192.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 192.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 193% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (-165) diff 182.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 182.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.851 (29 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/105 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/56 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 55/105 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 182.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 182.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 183% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Over 0.5 (-180) diff 174.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 174.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (49 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 7 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .829 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/109 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 41/54 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 73/109 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 174.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 174.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 174% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Over 0.5 (-150) diff 169.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 169.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.460 (115 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/115 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/59 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 33/56 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 59/115 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 169.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 169.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 169% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 (-150) diff 164.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 164.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.201 (34 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/112 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/55 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 79/112 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 164.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 164.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 164% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (-130) diff 152.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 152.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/108 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/51 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 64/108 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 152.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 152.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 152% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-140) diff 150.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 0.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 150.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.271 (34 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 8 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.175
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 72/115 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/63 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter TB: 35/52 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 72/115 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 150.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 150.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 150% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 (-140) diff 145.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 145.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.212 (11 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/110 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/54 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 69/110 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 145.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 145.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (-165) diff 145.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 145.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.363 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/115 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/58 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 26/57 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 61/115 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 145.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 145.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 (-140) diff 143.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 143.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.527 (28 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/107 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 30/52 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 55/107 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 143.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 143.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 (-150) diff 138.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 138.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.412 (116 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/103 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/55 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter TB: 30/48 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 58/103 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 138.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 138.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Over 0.5 (-180) diff 135.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 135.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.421 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 42/53 over 0.5 (79%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 72/108 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 135.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 135.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (-200) diff 130.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 130.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.279 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 16 PA | 4/15 | HR 1 | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .779
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/113 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/56 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 35/57 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 66/113 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 130.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 130.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Over 0.5 (-150) diff 125.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 125.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.341 (30 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 46/96 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/42 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 23/54 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 46/96 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 125.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 125.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (-165) diff 109.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 109.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.237 (35 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 12 PA | 5/11 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS 1.409
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/111 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/53 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 34/58 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 61/111 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 109.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.55 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 109.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.55 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 (-140) diff 108.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 108.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.154 (18 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 22 PA | 4/20 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/99 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/50 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 26/49 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 54/99 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 108.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 108.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 (-140) diff 106.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 106.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.293 (59 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/52 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 53/108 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 106.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 106.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (-140) diff 90.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.95 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.01
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.466 (39 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/112 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.89 | Away Batter TB: 30/56 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 56/112 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 90.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 90.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+174) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +174

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.808 (130 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 10 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/115 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 55/115 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.31

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (+112) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.808 (130 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 10 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/115 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 55/115 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.31

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-138) diff 52.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-135	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.476 (26 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/117 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 56/117 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+109) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.625 (31 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/96 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter TB: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 47/96 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-103) diff 48.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-125	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.602 (28 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .946
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/60 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 51/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+102) diff 42.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.370 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 25 PA | 5/20 | HR 2 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .950
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 48/111 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 48/111 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (+103) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +103; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.390 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 43/106 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter TB: 43/106 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+112) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.503 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Robert Stock: 2 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/109 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 49/109 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.83
Base projection 0.83 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.215 (40 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/53 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.74 | Away Batter TB: 33/56 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter TB: 55/109 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+114) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.549 (49 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/115 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/61 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter TB: 55/115 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Baty Under 1.5 (-256) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.02
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.305 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/106 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/54 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter TB: 79/106 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (+114) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.634 (29 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 11 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.246
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 50/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (+111) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/115 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter TB: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 55/115 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+132) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.650 (30 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 11 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | OPS 1.421
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/114 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 44/114 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-111) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.266 (47 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 36 PA | 8/29 | HR 5 | K% 30.6% | BB% 19.4% | OPS 1.279
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 36 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/117 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 49/117 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-114) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.370 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 23 PA | 5/22 | HR 1 | K% 26.1% | BB% 4.3% | OPS .670
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/106 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.09 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter TB: 50/106 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-125) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-119	-109	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.521 (54 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/105 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 46/105 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+102) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/109 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 53/109 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+110) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.405 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 33/82 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/43 over 1.5 (33%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 19/39 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 33/82 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+120) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.537 (58 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 23 PA | 0/21 | HR 0 | K% 60.9% | BB% 8.7% | OPS .087
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/116 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 32/57 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter TB: 62/116 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+106) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.591 (60 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/113 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.03 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/58 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 44/113 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-117) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.299 (30 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .700
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 44/100 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 44/100 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+112) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.419 (79 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/114 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter TB: 50/114 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-190) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 1.5 -190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.141 (13 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 71/107 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter TB: 71/107 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+130) diff 25.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.757 (29 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/110 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 47/110 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+118) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.481 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 32 PA | 11/30 | HR 2 | K% 9.4% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.106
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/113 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 32/57 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter TB: 52/113 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+111) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.384 (63 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 55/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 55/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Under 1.5 (-199) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -199

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+148	-199	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.225 (32 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter TB: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 73/108 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Endy Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+130) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.593 (43 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/106 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 40/106 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+145) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.593 (43 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/106 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 40/106 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+141) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	-
Caesars	1.5	+145	-197	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+141	-188	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 11 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 18.2% | BB% 27.3% | OPS 1.511
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/109 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/54 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 42/109 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+102) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.321 (66 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/115 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 45/115 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+132) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jackson Jobe: 3 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 66.7% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/116 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 49/116 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+120) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.294 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 17/50 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 47/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+120) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.257 (35 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/107 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter TB: 47/107 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-204) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+152	-204	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.289 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/108 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 31/51 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 68/108 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+140) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.624 (35 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/110 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 48/110 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+129) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.457 (66 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 50/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+105) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.440 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/114 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 42/114 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+135) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.423 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/118 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 22/60 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 46/118 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+143) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+143	-192	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.708 (28 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 48/112 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 48/112 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-184) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -184 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -184 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (72 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/117 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/58 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 41/59 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 77/117 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+113) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.448 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .445
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 44/112 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 44/112 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Under 1.5 (-208) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -208 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -208

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -208 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.114 (21 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/115 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 37/58 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 74/115 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-173) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.156 (23 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/108 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 70/108 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+141) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.887 (23 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/114 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 53/114 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+137) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.336 (35 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/99 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 46/99 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (-101) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.628 (30 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 7 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .821 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/116 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/59 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 21/57 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 42/116 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+104) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jackson Jobe: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/106 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/46 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 45/106 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+130) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.473 (22 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/102 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 40/102 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-136) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.287 (54 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 69/108 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 69/108 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 (-190) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.263 (10 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 18 PA | 4/16 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .771
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/88 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/42 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 22/46 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 49/88 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+132) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.364 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 32/87 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/45 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 14/42 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 32/87 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (-103) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.494 (35 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/114 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/59 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 42/114 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+114) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 16 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .450
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 48/115 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 22/60 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 48/115 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-108) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 -108; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-108	-120	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.451 (59 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 11 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .273
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/98 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 19/46 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 46/98 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Under 1.5 (-190) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+150	-200	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.297 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/114 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 39/56 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter TB: 76/114 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Under 1.5 (-201) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -201

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+150	-201	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.289 (45 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/96 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 26/45 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 55/96 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Under 1.5 (-190) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.192 (29 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/104 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/50 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 64/104 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+125) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.488 (43 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.650 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 46/116 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/62 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 46/116 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (+118) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.724 (35 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .432
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 40/113 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.16 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 40/113 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-175) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.224 (46 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/53 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 68/109 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Under 1.5 (-165) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.281 (67 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/116 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 36/60 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 73/116 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+155) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+141	-193	-
DK	1.5	+155	-208	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.287 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 52/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+123) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+139) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (+130) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+116) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (+126) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.289 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 19 PA | 8/17 | HR 0 | K% 10.5% | BB% 5.3% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/111 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 42/111 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (+133) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (+140) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+140) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+125) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.290 (54 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/93 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 17/43 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 39/93 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 1.5 (+130) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.672 (46 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/107 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 46/107 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Under 1.5 (-181) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.227 (38 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jake Bennett: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/104 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/48 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 58/104 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Under 1.5 (-188) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -188

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+140	-188	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.446 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 11 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.421
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/54 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 77/109 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (+130) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.362 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/98 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.17 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 17/49 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 42/98 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (+150) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Conforto Over 1.5 (+158) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +158

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+140) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-102) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-102	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.230 (59 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Walbert Ureña: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 55/113 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 55/113 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+140) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+134) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.469 (36 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 36/97 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/48 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 36/97 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+118) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (+136) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+122) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.419 (53 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 34/92 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/44 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 18/48 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 34/92 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Under 1.5 (-190) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.412 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/111 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/56 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 37/55 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 68/111 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach McKinstry Over 1.5 (+199) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +199 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +199

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +199 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+151) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +151

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+151	-203	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Gilbert Over 1.5 (+186) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +186 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +186

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +186 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daniel Susac Over 1.5 (+167) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +167

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-156) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 26 PA | 7/26 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .654
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/112 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/57 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 76/112 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Under 1.5 (-171) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.314 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 16 PA | 5/15 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .775
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/114 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 37/58 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 73/114 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+116) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.331 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/110 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 41/110 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (+118) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.363 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/108 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 43/108 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (+116) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.528 (32 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 18 PA | 9/14 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.937
BVP production adjustment: 1.14x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/108 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 19/54 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 39/108 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 (-180) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (67 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/114 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 33/58 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 68/114 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (+125) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+133) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+149) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +149

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+149	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Connor Wong Over 1.5 (+186) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +186 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +186

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +186 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+121) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+121	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+122) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+121) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+152) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +152

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 1.5 (+143) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+131) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Blaze Jordan Over 1.5 (+131) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+119) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nelson Velazquez Over 1.5 (+126) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-173) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -173 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.315 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.208
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 71/109 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 71/109 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (+153) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +153

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+153	-205	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+140) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Under 1.5 (-150) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 1.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.370 (65 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .455
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/115 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/62 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 74/115 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Noelvi Marte Under 1.5 (-190) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.175 (27 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 24 PA | 5/21 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .762
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 59/111 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/55 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 30/56 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 59/111 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-175) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.175 (27 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 24 PA | 5/21 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .762
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 59/111 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/55 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 30/56 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 59/111 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+124) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.361 (28 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/112 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 46/112 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+118) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.306 (36 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 45/114 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 45/114 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (+137) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Genao Over 1.5 (+190) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+152) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +152

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy Under 1.5 (-155) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.267 (43 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 23 PA | 3/20 | HR 0 | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.7% | OPS .467
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/106 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 29/54 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 66/106 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-133) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.380 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 74/115 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 74/115 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (+106) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.398 (20 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 31/85 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/43 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 15/42 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 31/85 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-160) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 7 PA | 5/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.143 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 68/115 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/56 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 34/59 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 68/115 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 1.5 (+116) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (15 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .558
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 35/86 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 12/38 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 35/86 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+129) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.292 (39 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/114 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 47/114 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 (-169) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.401 (24 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 26 PA | 2/26 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .154
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/113 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/56 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 66/113 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-136) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.307 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/115 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/60 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 75/115 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+130) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+115) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jesus Sanchez Over 1.5 (+130) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dansby Swanson Under 1.5 (-159) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.455 (28 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 25 PA | 4/21 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 8.0% | OPS .488
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/112 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 37/55 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 77/112 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (+128) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.283 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 38/115 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/60 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 38/115 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-156) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.477 (74 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/116 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 36/58 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 77/116 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 (-140) diff 192.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 192.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.118 (31 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 71.4% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/109 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/52 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 62/109 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 192.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 193% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (-190) diff 155.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 155.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/87 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/42 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 47/87 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 155.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 155% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Over 0.5 (-180) diff 152.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 152.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.224 (21 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/95 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/47 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 25/48 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 59/95 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 152.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 153% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-160) diff 142.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 142.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.194 (72 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/98 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 27/49 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 51/98 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 142.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Over 0.5 (-180) diff 122.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 122.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.333 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 62/105 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/52 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 28/53 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 62/105 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 122.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 (-180) diff 119.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 119.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.347 (32 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/111 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/55 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 28/56 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 57/111 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 119.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

▸ Total — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-110) edge 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -110

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 9 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-110	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-112	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-105	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-110	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+100	-	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	7.5	-110	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-115	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-109	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-110	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Jacob deGrom (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Kyle Bradish (RHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Jacob deGrom elite xFIP (3.27)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-108) edge 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 7 -125 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -108

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 9 books | 7 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 7 -125 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is LowVig Over 7.5 -104; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	7	-125	-	Recommended
BetMGM	7.5	-110	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-110	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-107	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-110	-	-
DK	7.5	-108	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-108	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-104	-	Raw BestVerify
MyBookie	7.5	-104	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-110	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Gerrit Cole (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Chris Sale (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 100)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Chris Sale elite xFIP (2.92)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-110) edge 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 8 -107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8 -110

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 8 at 8 books | 8.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 8 -107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 8.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8	-110	-	-
BetOnline	8	-110	-	-
BetUS	8	-110	-	-
Bovada Direct	8	-110	-	-
DK	8	-110	-	Selected
FanDuel	8	-110	-	-
LowVig	8	-107	-	Recommended
MyBookie	8	-111	-	-
theScore Bet	8.5	+110	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[IL] Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Jack Anderson (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Garrett Acton (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Robert Gasser (LHP) | opp wRC+ 94 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Taj Bradley (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-120) edge 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 7 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7 -120

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7 at 5 books | 7.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 7 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	7	-109	-	Recommended
Bovada Direct	7	-110	-	-
DK	7	-120	-	Selected
FanDuel	7	-122	-	-
MyBookie	7	-122	-	-
BetMGM	7.5	+105	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	+107	-	-
BetUS	7.5	+105	-	-
LowVig	7.5	+109	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+110	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.3 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: George Kirby (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Griffin Jax (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.3
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Griffin Jax elite xFIP (3.34)

▸ F5 ML — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Athletics (+175) edge 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (F5) | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK +175 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +175

Own-line consensus: 4 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: DK +175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Fenway Park (HITTER)
Jake Bennett xFIP 3.90
Gage Jump xFIP 4.03
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 101)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jake Bennett (LHP)
Away SP: Gage Jump (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Moneyline — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Moneyline — Athletics (+207) edge 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie +212 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +207

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: MyBookie +212 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Underdog ML value — Athletics at +207 with 16.2% edge (EV $+45.52/$100)
Home SP: Jake Bennett (LHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs LHP (tough)
Away SP: Gage Jump (LHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs LHP (tough)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.3 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 66.3% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 20.3% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds +108 within price guard (-160 floor)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Batter HR — 247 play(s) (C 247)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 98.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0092
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.215 (40 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 108/109 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/53 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 55/56 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 108/109 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 96.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0187
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.141 (13 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 105/107 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/53 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 105/107 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 6.3% / Under 93.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.289 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 108/108 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/57 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 51/51 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 108/108 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 13.0% / Under 87.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Beck Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy (2002) Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alika Williams Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jahmai Jones Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Ornelas Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Baez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — John Rave Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rortvedt Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0370
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.225 (32 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 104/108 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/56 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 104/108 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 91.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0513
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.302 (72 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 111/117 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 58/59 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 111/117 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 90.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0459
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 104/109 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/53 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 104/109 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0536
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.466 (39 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/112 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/56 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 106/112 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 89.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0556
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.421 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 102/108 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 102/108 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0571
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.333 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/105 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 51/53 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 99/105 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 88.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0536
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.287 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/112 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 106/112 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0609
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.271 (34 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 8 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.175
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 108/115 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/63 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 108/115 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0609
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.380 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 108/115 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 108/115 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 86.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0680
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.412 (116 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 96/103 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 96/103 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 86.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0796
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.230 (59 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Walbert Ureña: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 104/113 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 104/113 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 86.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 6.3% / Under 93.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0796
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.230 (59 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Walbert Ureña: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 104/113 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 104/113 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 86.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0556
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.528 (32 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 18 PA | 9/14 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.937
BVP production adjustment: 1.14x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/108 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/54 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 102/108 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 86.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0729
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.289 (45 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/96 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 89/96 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 86.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0796
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.279 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 16 PA | 4/15 | HR 1 | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .779
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/113 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/56 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 104/113 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0721
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.347 (32 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 104/111 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 104/111 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 85.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0734
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (49 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 7 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .829 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/109 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 102/109 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0842
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.224 (21 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/95 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 87/95 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0755
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jackson Jobe: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/106 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 99/106 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0789
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.292 (39 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 105/114 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 105/114 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0811
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.237 (35 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 12 PA | 5/11 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS 1.409
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/111 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 102/111 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0909
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.263 (10 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 18 PA | 4/16 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .771
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/88 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/42 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 80/88 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 84.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0870
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 7 PA | 5/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.143 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 106/115 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 106/115 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 83.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0762
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.851 (29 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 97/105 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 97/105 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0789
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.297 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 105/114 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 105/114 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-750) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0721
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.289 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 19 PA | 8/17 | HR 0 | K% 10.5% | BB% 5.3% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/111 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/111 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 83.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0833
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.156 (23 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/108 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 99/108 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 83.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0901
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.412 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/111 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 101/111 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 82.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0982
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.201 (34 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/112 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 102/112 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0841
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.527 (28 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/107 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 99/107 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 80.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0917
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.446 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 11 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.421
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 99/109 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 99/109 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 80.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0948
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.477 (74 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 107/116 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 107/116 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 80.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1019
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.287 (54 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/108 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 98/108 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1071
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.361 (28 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/112 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 100/112 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.341 (30 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/96 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/42 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 85/96 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1028
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.672 (46 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/107 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 96/107 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1293
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.281 (67 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/116 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 104/116 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 77.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1089
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.294 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/101 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/50 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 91/101 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-750) diff 77.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1217
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.363 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 103/115 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 103/115 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1313
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.154 (18 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 22 PA | 4/20 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/99 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 86/99 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1053
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.494 (35 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/114 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/59 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 103/114 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1296
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.293 (59 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 96/108 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 96/108 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 76.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1091
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.624 (35 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 99/110 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 99/110 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1215
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.323 (32 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/107 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 95/107 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 76.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1150
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.287 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 100/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-700) diff 76.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1416
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.401 (24 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 26 PA | 2/26 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .154
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/113 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 98/113 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 75.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1149
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 78/87 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 78/87 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 75.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1197
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/117 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 104/117 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 75.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1197
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/117 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 104/117 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 75.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1197
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/117 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 104/117 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 75.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1161
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 26 PA | 7/26 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .654
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/112 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 100/112 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 75.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1327
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.451 (59 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 11 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .273
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/98 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 86/98 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 75.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1176
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.398 (20 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 76/85 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 76/85 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1212
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.336 (35 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/99 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 88/99 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 74.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1442
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.192 (29 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 90/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1545
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.212 (11 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 94/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 94/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1404
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (67 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 99/114 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 99/114 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 73.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.194 (72 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/98 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 84/98 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1351
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.384 (63 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1468
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.224 (46 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/109 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 93/109 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1304
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.460 (115 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/115 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 102/115 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Freeman Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 72.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1327
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.481 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 32 PA | 11/30 | HR 2 | K% 9.4% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.106
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 99/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 99/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-800) diff 72.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1327
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.481 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 32 PA | 11/30 | HR 2 | K% 9.4% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.106
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 99/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 99/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1339
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.705 (31 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 99/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-800) diff 72.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1271
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.423 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 104/118 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 104/118 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-800) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1395
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (15 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .558
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/86 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 31/38 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 74/86 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1327
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.362 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 86/98 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 86/98 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1207
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.628 (30 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 7 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .821 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/116 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 102/116 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 71.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1284
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 11 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 18.2% | BB% 27.3% | OPS 1.511
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1712
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.175 (27 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 24 PA | 5/21 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .762
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/111 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 93/111 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-800) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1712
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.175 (27 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 24 PA | 5/21 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .762
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/111 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 93/111 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-800) diff 71.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1391
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.283 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/115 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 101/115 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 71.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1413
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.382 (104 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/92 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 80/92 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1574
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/108 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 92/108 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 71.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.448 (131 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/110 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 96/110 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-750) diff 71.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1565
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.370 (65 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .455
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/115 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 98/115 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 71.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1339
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.708 (28 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 71.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1731
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.271 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.227 (38 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jake Bennett: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/104 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 88/104 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1404
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.887 (23 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 99/114 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 99/114 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1468
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.315 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.208
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/109 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 93/109 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.645 (29 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 96/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-800) diff 69.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1404
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.440 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 99/114 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 99/114 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1638
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.402 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 98/116 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 98/116 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-750) diff 69.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.448 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .445
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/59 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1455
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.331 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/110 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 96/110 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1455
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.757 (29 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/110 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 96/110 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pedro Pages Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 68.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1652
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 16 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .450
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/115 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 98/115 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-800) diff 68.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1652
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 16 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .450
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/115 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 98/115 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.634 (29 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 11 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.246
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/110 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 96/110 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.634 (29 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 11 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.246
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/110 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 96/110 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.634 (29 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 11 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.246
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/110 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 96/110 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-750) diff 67.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1739
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.419 (53 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Walbert Ureña contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/92 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/44 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 79/92 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.363 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/108 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 93/108 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 67.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1518
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.455 (28 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 25 PA | 4/21 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 8.0% | OPS .488
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 99/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1770
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.285 (65 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/113 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 94/113 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 65.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1712
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jackson Jobe: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/111 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 93/111 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-750) diff 65.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1818
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.457 (66 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/110 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 92/110 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1565
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.549 (49 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/115 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 99/115 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-800) diff 64.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1593
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.724 (35 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .432
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/113 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 95/113 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-750) diff 64.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1712
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.575 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/111 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 93/111 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-650) diff 63.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2018
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.314 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 16 PA | 5/15 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .775
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/114 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 93/114 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-700) diff 63.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1863
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.473 (22 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/102 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 85/102 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Endy Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 63.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1698
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.593 (43 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/106 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 89/106 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 63.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1698
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.593 (43 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/106 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 89/106 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-800) diff 62.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1770
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.591 (60 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 96/113 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 96/113 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-700) diff 61.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1951
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.405 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 68/82 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/43 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter HR: 34/39 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 68/82 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-650) diff 61.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1983
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.488 (43 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.650 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/116 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 93/116 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-800) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1959
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.469 (36 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 79/97 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 79/97 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-600) diff 61.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2151
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.290 (54 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/93 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 35/43 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 74/93 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-650) diff 60.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1942
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.517 (20 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/103 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 83/103 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-700) diff 60.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1947
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.364 (126 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/113 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 92/113 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-750) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1900
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.299 (30 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .700
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/100 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 81/100 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-650) diff 59.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2294
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.118 (31 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 71.4% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/109 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 85/109 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 59.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2294
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.118 (31 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 71.4% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/109 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 85/109 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-600) diff 59.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2105
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.306 (36 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/114 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 91/114 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-800) diff 56.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2174
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.321 (66 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 92/115 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 92/115 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 56.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2430
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.257 (35 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 84/107 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 84/107 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-650) diff 54.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2456
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.419 (79 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 88/114 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter HR: 88/114 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-375) diff 54.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2364
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.370 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 23 PA | 5/22 | HR 1 | K% 26.1% | BB% 4.3% | OPS .670
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/106 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 81/106 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-425) diff 54.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2051
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.266 (47 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 36 PA | 8/29 | HR 5 | K% 30.6% | BB% 19.4% | OPS 1.279
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 36 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/117 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 94/117 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-350) diff 54.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2190
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.521 (54 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/105 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 83/105 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-500) diff 53.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1964
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.602 (28 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .946
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 90/112 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 90/112 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-750) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2083
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.625 (31 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/96 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 38/46 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 77/96 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-650) diff 53.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2299
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.364 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/87 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/45 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 68/87 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 51.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2202
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.503 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Robert Stock: 2 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/109 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 88/109 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-500) diff 51.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2202
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.503 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Robert Stock: 2 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/109 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 88/109 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-750) diff 51.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2105
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.650 (30 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 11 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | OPS 1.421
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/114 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 92/114 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-500) diff 50.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.476 (26 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/117 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 94/117 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-450) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2845
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.537 (58 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 23 PA | 0/21 | HR 0 | K% 60.9% | BB% 8.7% | OPS .087
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 86/116 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 86/116 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-800) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 3:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2793
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.459 (68 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/111 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/49 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 81/111 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-500) diff 45.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:50 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2870
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/115 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 86/115 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-400) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3113
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.390 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/106 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter HR: 81/106 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-400) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2973
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.370 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Scherzer contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Scherzer: 25 PA | 5/20 | HR 2 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .950
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 83/111 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 83/111 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3043
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.808 (130 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 10 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/115 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 85/115 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-400) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3043
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.808 (130 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 10 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/115 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 85/115 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

6 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-110	50.1%	68.8%	+18.7%	$+31.40	8	Bet on DK
C	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	3:05 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-108	49.7%	68.2%	+18.6%	$+31.41	9	Bet on DK
C	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-110	50.0%	67.2%	+17.2%	$+28.20	8	Bet on DK
C	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	4:11 PM	Moneyline	Athletics	DK	+207	31.2%	47.4%	+16.2%	$+45.52	9	Bet on DK
B	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	7:10 PM	Run Line	Kansas City Royals +1.5	DK	-107	49.5%	65.6%	+16.1%	$+26.91	9	Bet on DK
C	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:50 PM	Total	Over 7.0	DK	-120	52.2%	67.6%	+15.5%	$+24.00	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (6 play(s))

C Over 7.5 — Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers (Total) +18.7%

[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Jacob deGrom (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Kyle Bradish (RHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Jacob deGrom elite xFIP (3.27)

C Over 7.5 — Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees (Total) +18.6%

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Gerrit Cole (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Chris Sale (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 100)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Chris Sale elite xFIP (2.92)

C Over 8.0 — Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers (Total) +17.2%

[IL] Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Jack Anderson (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Garrett Acton (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Robert Gasser (LHP) | opp wRC+ 94 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Taj Bradley (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

C Athletics — Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (Moneyline) +16.2%

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Underdog ML value — Athletics at +207 with 16.2% edge (EV $+45.52/$100)
Home SP: Jake Bennett (LHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs LHP (tough)
Away SP: Gage Jump (LHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs LHP (tough)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.3 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 66.3% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 20.3% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds +108 within price guard (-160 floor)

B Kansas City Royals +1.5 — Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals (Run Line) +16.1%

[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: -0.3 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+26.91/$100
✓ Cover prob 65.6% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 16.1% ≥ 5%
✓ Kansas City Royals home RL 71% (7 bets)
✓ L5 RL 5/5
✓ Odds -107 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Seth Lugo (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Clay Holmes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.98)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 98)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 105)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

C Over 7.0 — Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners (Total) +15.5%

[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.3 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: George Kirby (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Griffin Jax (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.3
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Griffin Jax elite xFIP (3.34)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (F5)	4:11 PM	F5 ML	Athletics	DK	+175	34.3%	48.6%	+14.3%	$+33.66	4	Bet on DK
B	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5)	6:06 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-125	52.1%	62.4%	+10.3%	$+12.34	2	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

C Athletics — Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (F5) (F5 ML) +14.3%

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Fenway Park (HITTER)
Jake Bennett xFIP 3.90
Gage Jump xFIP 4.03
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 101)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jake Bennett (LHP)
Away SP: Gage Jump (LHP)

B Under 5.5 — Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) (F5 Total) +10.3%

[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Aaron Nola xFIP 4.01
Max Scherzer xFIP 4.73
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 99 blended 50% (team 94)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.02
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Aaron Nola (RHP)
Away SP: Max Scherzer (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees

3:05 PM · decision fi-933b24438348db15

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.7% / YRFI 48.3%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Chris Sale · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Gerrit Cole · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-07 · updated 2026-08-08T07:53:08.817073Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.517
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Chris Sale / Gerrit Cole announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.517

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSChris Sale / Gerrit Cole announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-132	+100	53.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-128	+100	52.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Athletics @ Boston Red Sox

4:11 PM · decision fi-22fca0c24b9c2f71

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.6% / YRFI 49.4%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Gage Jump · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jake Bennett · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-07 · updated 2026-08-08T07:53:08.817073Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.506
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Gage Jump / Jake Bennett announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.506

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSGage Jump / Jake Bennett announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-106	-125	48.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-121	-110	51.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-122	-104	51.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins

4:11 PM · decision fi-a79c969382d83ea3

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.6% / YRFI 48.4%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Walbert Ureña · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Sandy Alcantara · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-07 · updated 2026-08-08T07:53:08.817073Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.516
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Walbert Ureña / Sandy Alcantara announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.516

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSWalbert Ureña / Sandy Alcantara announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-139	+105	54.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-130	+102	53.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies

6:06 PM · decision fi-ed258bc8ca3c3bef

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.5% / YRFI 49.5%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Max Scherzer · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Aaron Nola · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-07 · updated 2026-08-08T07:53:08.817073Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.505
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Max Scherzer / Aaron Nola announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.505

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMax Scherzer / Aaron Nola announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-101	-132	46.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+114	-146	44.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates

6:41 PM · decision fi-ccf26298d8551ff5

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.4% / YRFI 48.6%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Robert Stock · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Bubba Chandler · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-07 · updated 2026-08-08T07:53:08.817073Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.514
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Robert Stock / Bubba Chandler announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.514

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRobert Stock / Bubba Chandler announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-118	-113	50.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-104	-122	48.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals

6:46 PM · decision fi-0086bbf92a0a0f93

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.9% / YRFI 48.1%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Chase Burns · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Andrew Alvarez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-07 · updated 2026-08-08T07:53:08.817073Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.519
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Chase Burns / Andrew Alvarez announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.519

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSChase Burns / Andrew Alvarez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-121	-109	51.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals

7:10 PM · decision fi-b2f890c9c2c021cf

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.5% / YRFI 50.5%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Clay Holmes · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Seth Lugo · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-07 · updated 2026-08-08T07:53:08.817073Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.495
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Clay Holmes / Seth Lugo announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.495

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSClay Holmes / Seth Lugo announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-111	-119	49.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5

Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers

7:11 PM · decision fi-755e9fd4154da4b4

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.0% / YRFI 49.0%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Taj Bradley · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Robert Gasser · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-07 · updated 2026-08-08T07:53:08.817073Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.510
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Taj Bradley / Robert Gasser announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.510

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSTaj Bradley / Robert Gasser announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers

7:16 PM · decision fi-3e43906e0ea79f45

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.4% / YRFI 49.6%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Kyle Bradish · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jacob deGrom · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-07 · updated 2026-08-08T07:53:08.817073Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.504
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Kyle Bradish / Jacob deGrom announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.504

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSKyle Bradish / Jacob deGrom announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-127	-105	52.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-128	+100	52.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

7:16 PM · decision fi-61dd9dcda51a6205

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 52.1% / YRFI 47.9%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Gavin Williams · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Anthony Kay · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-07 · updated 2026-08-08T07:53:08.817073Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.521
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Gavin Williams / Anthony Kay announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.521

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSGavin Williams / Anthony Kay announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-133	+100	53.3%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-137	+104	54.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals

7:16 PM · decision fi-a9122c785e5df18e

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.5% / YRFI 48.5%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Kyle Freeland · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Matthew Liberatore · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-07 · updated 2026-08-08T07:53:08.817073Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.515
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Kyle Freeland / Matthew Liberatore announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.515

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSKyle Freeland / Matthew Liberatore announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-102	-125	47.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants

7:16 PM · decision fi-68406a1b5e2832ff

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.4% / YRFI 48.6%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Jackson Jobe · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Landen Roupp · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-07 · updated 2026-08-08T07:53:08.817073Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.514
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Jackson Jobe / Landen Roupp announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.514

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJackson Jobe / Landen Roupp announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-124	-108	51.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-120	-106	51.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres

7:16 PM · decision fi-4b6c4ebf83b2c652

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.5% / YRFI 48.5%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Peter Lambert · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Michael King · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-07 · updated 2026-08-08T07:53:08.817073Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.515
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Peter Lambert / Michael King announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.515

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSPeter Lambert / Michael King announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-120	-112	50.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-146	+114	55.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

8:11 PM · decision fi-93206c5d66e4afd0

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.2% / YRFI 49.8%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Brandon Pfaadt · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-07 · updated 2026-08-08T07:53:08.817073Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.502
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Yoshinobu Yamamoto / Brandon Pfaadt announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.502

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSYoshinobu Yamamoto / Brandon Pfaadt announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-120	-112	50.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-104	-122	48.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners

9:50 PM · decision fi-b3ccec9d92bda824

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.5% / YRFI 48.5%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Griffin Jax · official_announced · matched

Home starter: George Kirby · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-07 · updated 2026-08-08T07:53:08.817073Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.515
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Griffin Jax / George Kirby announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.515

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSGriffin Jax / George Kirby announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-150	+114	56.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-130	+102	53.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-145	+115	56.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 247 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=247
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	3:05 PM	-	Gerrit Cole (R)	theScore Bet	+280	-	38.0%	24.3%	+13.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	7:10 PM	-	Seth Lugo (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	37.5%	23.1%	+14.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	-	Robert Stock (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	35.3%	23.1%	+12.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	8:11 PM	-	Brandon Pfaadt (R)	theScore Bet	+240	-	34.6%	27.1%	+7.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	-	Max Scherzer (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	34.5%	25.6%	+8.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	7:10 PM	-	Seth Lugo (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	34.2%	19.1%	+15.1%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	-	Kyle Freeland (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	33.9%	23.1%	+10.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	-	Matthew Liberatore (L)	theScore Bet	+250	-	33.8%	26.3%	+7.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jake Bauers	Milwaukee Brewers	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	-	Taj Bradley (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	33.7%	20.8%	+12.9%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	-	Max Scherzer (R)	theScore Bet	+250	-	33.5%	26.3%	+7.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kazuma Okamoto	Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	-	Aaron Nola (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	33.4%	21.7%	+11.6%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	7:16 PM	-	Gavin Williams (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	33.0%	19.1%	+13.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	7:16 PM	-	Michael King (R)	theScore Bet	+250	-	32.8%	26.3%	+6.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	-	Taj Bradley (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	32.4%	19.9%	+12.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:50 PM	-	George Kirby (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	32.4%	23.1%	+9.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kody Clemens	Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	-	Robert Gasser (L)	theScore Bet	+360	-	31.4%	19.9%	+11.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	3:05 PM	-	Gerrit Cole (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	31.1%	19.1%	+12.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Wilyer Abreu	Boston Red Sox	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	4:11 PM	-	Gage Jump (L)	theScore Bet	+400	-	29.5%	18.4%	+11.1%	98	-
Best HR Chance	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	-	Andrew Alvarez (L)	theScore Bet	+380	-	29.5%	19.1%	+10.4%	98	-
Best HR Chance	Christian Walker	Houston Astros	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	7:16 PM	-	Michael King (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	29.4%	19.9%	+9.6%	98	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	100	91.6%	-1093	Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Kazuma Okamoto, Brandon Marsh	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	100	88.6%	-776	Jordan Walker, Hunter Goodman, Alec Burleson, Pedro Pages	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	100	86.6%	-647	Jake Bauers, Jackson Chourio, Kody Clemens, Brice Turang	American Family Field HR factor 1.08 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	100	86.1%	-620	Pete Alonso, Jake Burger, Brandon Nimmo, Elias Diaz	Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.9%	-
Watchlist	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	7:16 PM	100	85.6%	-594	Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery, Braden Montgomery, Jo Adell	Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:50 PM	100	85.1%	-573	Junior Caminero, Julio Rodriguez, Jonathan Aranda, Randy Arozarena	T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92	-
Watchlist	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	3:05 PM	100	85.0%	-565	Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Drake Baldwin, Ben Rice	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18	-
Watchlist	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	7:10 PM	100	84.2%	-531	Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	8:11 PM	100	83.9%	-522	Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages, Freddie Freeman, Nolan Arenado	Chase Field HR factor 1.02	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	4:11 PM	100	83.7%	-512	Kyle Stowers, Mike Trout, Josh Lowe, Zach Neto	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88	-
Watchlist	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	100	83.5%	-507	Brandon Lowe, Endy Rodriguez, Eddy Alvarez, Bryan Reynolds	PNC Park HR factor 0.96	-
Watchlist	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	100	83.4%	-503	Elly De La Cruz, CJ Abrams, Sal Stewart, JJ Bleday	Nationals Park HR factor 1.02	-
Watchlist	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	7:16 PM	100	82.7%	-479	Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Manny Machado, Isaac Paredes	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-
Watchlist	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	4:11 PM	100	82.1%	-459	Wilyer Abreu, Willson Contreras, Tyler Soderstrom, Ceddanne Rafaela	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	7:16 PM	98	81.4%	-439	Willy Adames, Dillon Dingler, Riley Greene, Osleivis Basabe	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Matt Olson — Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees (+280) HR chance 38.0% | edge +13.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.284, OPS 0.899, ISO 0.284, TB/G 2.15
Statcast: barrel 15.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.6/111.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.523
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 30/116 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.28
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0349, xFIP 3.76, K% 25.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.287, xERA 3.40, whiff 21.9%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.087, K% 60.9% (23 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.068, OPS 0.933, ISO 0.304 (292 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ BvP strikeout risk

Best HR Chance Pete Crow-Armstrong — Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals (+300) HR chance 37.5% | edge +14.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.222, OPS 0.937, ISO 0.260, TB/G 2.06
Statcast: barrel 12.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.4/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.475
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 23/117 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0272, xFIP 4.61, K% 18.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.352, xERA 5.34, whiff 18.6%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.667, K% 16.7% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.055, OPS 0.933, ISO 0.283 (346 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Brandon Lowe — New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+300) HR chance 35.3% | edge +12.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.220, OPS 0.803, ISO 0.229, TB/G 1.92
Statcast: barrel 12.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.1/111.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.450
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 21/109 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0465, xFIP 3.02, K% 22.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.349, xERA 5.23, whiff 31.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.059, OPS 0.902, ISO 0.276 (338 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.503, xwOBA 0.351 (57 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ High-whiff arsenal

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Best HR Chance Shohei Ohtani — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+240) HR chance 34.6% | edge +7.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.236, OPS 0.952, ISO 0.256, TB/G 2.04
Statcast: barrel 16.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.5/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.581
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 25/106 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.25
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0238, xFIP 4.57, K% 15.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.303, xERA 3.82, whiff 20.5%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.670, K% 26.1% (23 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.045, OPS 0.948, ISO 0.240 (330 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Bryce Harper — Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies (+260) HR chance 34.5% | edge +8.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.205, OPS 0.866, ISO 0.243, TB/G 1.76
Statcast: barrel 11.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.2/113.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.511
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 23/117 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0693, xFIP 5.60, K% 16.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.355, xERA 5.44, whiff 17.7%
BvP vs SP: 5 HR, OPS 1.279, K% 30.6% (36 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.066, OPS 1.002, ISO 0.318 (305 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Seiya Suzuki — Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals (+380) HR chance 34.2% | edge +15.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.190, OPS 0.839, ISO 0.203, TB/G 1.80
Statcast: barrel 10.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.9/112.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.422
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 19/100 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0272, xFIP 4.61, K% 18.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.352, xERA 5.34, whiff 18.6%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.700, K% 20.0% (10 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.037, OPS 0.786, ISO 0.182 (320 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Strong HR Chance Jordan Walker — Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals (+300) HR chance 33.9% | edge +10.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.196, OPS 0.831, ISO 0.205, TB/G 1.90
Statcast: barrel 13.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.1/116.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.482
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 0/20 (0%) | Season 22/112 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 0/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0452, xFIP 4.18, K% 19.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.349, xERA 5.23, whiff 22.7%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.946, K% 12.5% (8 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.049, OPS 0.913, ISO 0.224 (123 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Cold recent HR form

Best HR Chance Hunter Goodman — Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals (+250) HR chance 33.8% | edge +7.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.311, OPS 0.862, ISO 0.290, TB/G 2.03
Statcast: barrel 16.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.5/116.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.460
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 25/106 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0408, xFIP 4.19, K% 22.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.338, xERA 4.86, whiff 23.9%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.057, OPS 0.882, ISO 0.244 (141 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.390, xwOBA 0.253 (38 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Nasim Nunez	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	+1100	0.4%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Steven Kwan	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	7:16 PM	+1100	0.9%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Thin BvP sample (1 PA)
Isaac Collins	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	7:10 PM	+700	1.0%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Masyn Winn	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	+600	1.1%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Xavier Edwards	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	4:11 PM	+1100	1.1%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Cold recent HR form
Nick Gonzales	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+700	1.4%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| High-whiff arsenal \| Cold recent HR form
Taylor Ward	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:50 PM	+500	1.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| High-whiff arsenal \| Cold recent HR form
Daulton Varsho	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	7:16 PM	+600	1.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Cold recent HR form
Nolan Schanuel	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	4:11 PM	+900	1.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Xander Bogaerts	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	7:16 PM	+550	1.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	7:16 PM	Landen Roupp	Jackson Jobe	0.82	18.6%	49.8%	-	+0.0%
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	4:11 PM	Jake Bennett	Gage Jump	0.95	17.9%	48.7%	-	+0.0%
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	7:16 PM	Michael King	Peter Lambert	0.85	17.3%	47.6%	-	+0.0%
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	Andrew Alvarez	Chase Burns	1.02	16.6%	46.4%	-	+0.0%
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	Bubba Chandler	Robert Stock	0.96	16.5%	46.2%	-	+0.0%
Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	4:11 PM	Sandy Alcantara	Walbert Ureña	0.88	16.4%	46.0%	-	+0.0%
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	8:11 PM	Brandon Pfaadt	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	1.02	16.1%	45.5%	-	+0.0%
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	7:10 PM	Seth Lugo	Clay Holmes	0.93	15.8%	45.0%	-	+0.0%
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	3:05 PM	Gerrit Cole	Chris Sale	1.18	15.0%	43.5%	-	+0.0%
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:50 PM	George Kirby	Griffin Jax	0.92	14.9%	43.2%	-	+0.0%
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	7:16 PM	Anthony Kay	Gavin Williams	1.00	14.4%	42.3%	-	+0.0%
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	Jacob deGrom	Kyle Bradish	1.10	13.9%	41.3%	-	+0.0%
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	Robert Gasser	Taj Bradley	1.08	13.4%	40.3%	-	+0.0%
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	Matthew Liberatore	Kyle Freeland	0.93	11.4%	36.2%	-	+0.0%
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	Aaron Nola	Max Scherzer	1.10	8.4%	29.2%	-	+0.0%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees	66.3	66.5	71.5	4	Slider (38% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 31.0%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals	65.3	67.1	68.5	3	Slider (52% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 31.2%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles	65.1	74.6	60.5	5	Changeup (43% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 33.7%, put-away 23.4%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins	62.1	60.0	67.0	4	Changeup (37% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	60.9	70.0	55.5	5	Sweeper (44% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 30.9%, put-away 24.4%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	59.8	55.7	70.0	6	Split-Finger (32% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	59.0	49.2	72.0	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres	58.0	52.9	65.0	7	Changeup (37% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	57.5	71.7	46.0	6	Changeup (41% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 25.2%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves	55.6	49.2	64.0	5	Slider (25% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers	55.0	51.3	60.5	5	Curveball (35% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers	54.6	56.6	54.0	4	Cutter (36% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers	51.5	51.9	52.5	4	Curveball (41% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays	51.4	53.5	47.5	6	Curveball (41% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels	51.0	45.4	57.5	7	Changeup (29% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	50.8	46.5	55.0	7	Sweeper (26% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	50.5	53.4	48.0	6	Slider (29% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins	50.2	43.7	55.5	5	Cutter (26% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	48.9	41.2	56.0	6	Curveball (32% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 20.5%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets	48.7	46.1	51.0	6	Slider (28% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds	48.5	55.2	43.5	5	Slider (38% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Clay Holmes	Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals	48.1	44.2	54.5	6	Sweeper (36% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros	46.6	52.1	43.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robert Stock	New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates	45.4	57.0	33.0	5	Changeup (67% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 31.3%, put-away 10.7%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies	44.8	48.1	38.5	8	Curveball (38% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	42.5	46.7	36.5	6	Sweeper (36% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	41.0	47.0	33.0	6	Curveball (35% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Chicago Cubs	35.8	38.0	31.5	8	Cutter (23% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 18.6%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Max Scherzer	Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies	32.2	30.6	30.0	5	Curveball (26% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 17.7%, put-away 11.5%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jackson Jobe	Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	13.9%	5.9	5.7	5.8	99	normal	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	L	26.6%	4.4	5.1	5.0	74	short	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees	L	31.3%	5.4	5.8	6.0	91	normal	full	71.50	28.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers	R	21.3%	5.3	5.5	5.5	89	normal	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	L	17.3%	5.9	5.9	5.9	99	normal	full	72.00	28.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Clay Holmes	Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals	R	22.3%	5.7	5.8	5.8	96	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	L	19.0%	5.1	4.9	4.9	86	short	full	36.50	63.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals	R	26.6%	5.4	5.7	5.6	91	normal	full	68.50	31.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	R	37.5%	6.4	6.0	6.1	107	deep	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	19.1%	6.2	5.4	5.6	104	deep	full	33.00	67.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jackson Jobe	Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants	R	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres	R	25.7%	5.6	5.7	5.7	94	normal	full	65.00	35.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Chicago Cubs	R	17.4%	5.6	5.6	5.6	94	normal	full	31.50	68.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins	R	22.9%	5.4	5.4	5.4	91	normal	full	67.00	33.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	23.4%	7.2	6.7	6.8	121	deep	full	70.00	30.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels	R	19.4%	6.6	6.5	6.5	111	deep	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins	L	21.5%	5.2	5.2	5.2	87	normal	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	25.0%	6.2	5.8	6.0	104	deep	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Robert Stock	New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	22.5%	-	5.0	5.7	95	short	full	33.00	67.00	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 5.0 IP/GS, recent_form_unavailable
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves	R	27.2%	6.1	5.7	6.0	102	deep	full	64.00	36.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	23.2%	5.5	5.2	5.3	92	normal	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets	R	19.2%	4.7	5.0	4.9	79	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros	R	21.5%	5.6	5.7	5.7	94	normal	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers	R	21.9%	5.7	5.4	5.4	96	normal	full	60.50	39.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	21.2%	6.2	6.0	6.1	104	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies	L	23.6%	5.1	4.9	5.0	86	short	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	R	27.1%	5.2	4.6	4.7	87	normal	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles	R	27.8%	4.9	5.4	5.3	82	short	full	60.50	39.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Max Scherzer	Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	18.4%	3.9	3.8	4.2	65	short	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds	L	19.9%	4.3	4.7	4.8	72	short	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

14/14 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Gavin Williams	Gavin Williams Over	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	21.3	3.8	21.7%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	deep	6.1	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Matthew Liberatore	Matthew Liberatore Under	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	14.2	-3.3	18.8%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	short	5.0	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	18.5	21.7	3.2	17.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.8	121	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (4 books) \| books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree
Seth Lugo	Seth Lugo Under	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	15.5	-2.0	11.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.04 <= 3 min
Jacob deGrom	Jacob deGrom Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	17.5	15.7	-1.8	10.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.3	82	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.75 <= 3 min
George Kirby	George Kirby Over	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	19.2	1.8	10.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Aaron Nola	Aaron Nola Under	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	17.5	15.8	-1.7	9.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.3	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Chris Sale	Chris Sale Over	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	17.5	19.0	1.5	8.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Michael King	Michael King Under	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	17.5	16.1	-1.4	7.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Gerrit Cole	Gerrit Cole Over	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	17.5	18.7	1.2	7.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Jake Bennett	Jake Bennett Over	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	18.7	1.2	7.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sandy Alcantara	Sandy Alcantara Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	20.5	20.7	0.2	1.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.5	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 20.5
Chase Burns	Chase Burns Over	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	17.5	17.6	0.1	0.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Kyle Freeland	Kyle Freeland Over	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	17.5	0.0	0.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.6	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

154 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Francisco Alvarez	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.94	1.65	0.65	0.65	2.94 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.56	1.20	0.65	0.71	2.94 / Over	0.35	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Yainer Diaz	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.50	1.44	0.53	0.53	2.57 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jordan Walker	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.48	1.13	0.61	0.74	2.82 / Over	0.35	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
CJ Abrams	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.45	1.05	0.63	0.76	2.28 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Yandy Diaz	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	Over 1.5	2.40	1.44	0.48	0.48	2.57 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.37	1.10	0.69	0.58	2.56 / Over	0.35	season_games=96,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon Lowe	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.37	1.03	0.64	0.69	2.54 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Alec Burleson	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.32	1.11	0.52	0.69	2.55 / Over	0.35	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.30	0.97	0.55	0.78	2.28 / Over	0.35	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Trea Turner	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.29	1.05	0.77	0.48	2.29 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ceddanne Rafaela	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	2.29	1.13	0.57	0.58	2.21 / Over	0.35	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.29	1.03	0.55	0.70	2.11 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Kyle Schwarber	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.27	0.92	0.67	0.68	2.31 / Over	0.35	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.26	1.03	0.57	0.66	2.13 / Over	0.35	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jake McCarthy	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.25	1.07	0.52	0.66	2.27 / Over	0.35	season_games=101,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Otto Lopez	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.24	1.24	0.57	0.43	1.96 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Tyler Freeman	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.23	1.25	0.49	0.49	2.23 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.23	0.96	0.62	0.65	2.28 / Over	0.35	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nick Gonzales	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.22	1.20	0.55	0.46	2.32 / Over	0.35	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Bryan Reynolds	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.22	1.00	0.66	0.55	2.37 / Over	0.35	season_games=118,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Drake Baldwin	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.20	1.05	0.59	0.57	2.13 / Over	0.35	season_games=93,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.20	1.03	0.62	0.55	2.09 / Over	0.35	season_games=116,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon Marsh	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.18	1.04	0.60	0.54	2.15 / Over	0.35	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Wilyer Abreu	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	2.18	0.98	0.60	0.59	2.22 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes