MLB Bets 2026-08-07

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	1029W–481L–0P	68%	-46.67 u	Last 14 days • 1510 settled
Grade A	26W–32L–0P	45%	-12.26 u
Grade B	1002W–445L–0P	69%	-31.69 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3202W–2033L–8P	61%	-189.20 u	All-time • 5243 settled
Grade A	249W–192L–0P	56%	-5.40 u
Grade B	2952W–1837L–8P	62%	-181.08 u

181 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter H+R+RBI	Andy Pages	1.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter H+R+RBI	Dillon Dingler	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter H+R+RBI	Freddie Freeman	1.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter H+R+RBI	Otto Lopez	1.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter H+R+RBI	Yordan Alvarez	1.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	A.J. Ewing	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Abimelec Ortiz	0.5	-239	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Alec Bohm	0.5	-271	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Alec Burleson	0.5	-242	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Alejandro Kirk	0.5	-319	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Andruw Monasterio	0.5	-235	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Bo Bichette	0.5	-477	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Braden Montgomery	0.5	-439	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brady House	0.5	-337	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-231	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brandon Nimmo	0.5	-283	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brenton Doyle	0.5	-487	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brian Serven	0.5	-582	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	CJ Abrams	0.5	-221	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Caleb Durbin	0.5	-275	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Carson Benge	0.5	-268	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Carter Jensen	0.5	-247	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5	-293	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-700	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Chase Meidroth	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cole Carrigg	0.5	-242	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cole Young	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Colson Montgomery	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Corey Seager	0.5	-213	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Daylen Lile	0.5	-316	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Dylan Crews	0.5	-235	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Endy Rodriguez	0.5	-245	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Enmanuel Valdez	0.5	-185	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Esmerlyn Valdez	0.5	-187	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Eugenio Suarez	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Evan Carter	0.5	-247	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-900	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Francisco Lindor	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	George Springer	0.5	-263	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Hector Rodriguez	0.5	-292	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Henry Bolte	0.5	-420	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-426	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Isaac Collins	0.5	-233	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Jac Caglianone	0.5	-457	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Jacob Wilson	0.5	-750	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-461	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Jake Mangum	0.5	-352	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Jake McCarthy	0.5	-494	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Jared Young	0.5	-300	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Jesus Sanchez	0.5	-397	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joc Pederson	0.5	-268	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Jonah Heim	0.5	-563	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-292	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-265	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Julio Rodriguez	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Kazuma Okamoto	0.5	-369	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Kyle Schwarber	0.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Lane Thomas	0.5	-223	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Luis Garcia Jr.	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Marcus Semien	0.5	-319	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Masataka Yoshida	0.5	-292	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Michael Massey	0.5	-514	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Mickey Moniak	0.5	-468	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Moises Ballesteros	0.5	-289	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Munetaka Murakami	0.5	-199	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Nathan Lukes	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Nick Loftin	0.5	-363	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Nick Sogard	0.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Randal Grichuk	0.5	-480	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Salvador Perez	0.5	-522	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Shohei Ohtani	0.5	-114	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-237	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-353	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Tommy White	0.5	-555	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-285	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Tyler Stephenson	0.5	-247	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Tyler Tolbert	0.5	-576	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Vaughn Grissom	0.5	-352	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Wade Meckler	0.5	-235	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Willi Castro	0.5	-339	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-340	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Wyatt Langford	0.5	-222	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Jack Perkins	4.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Jose Soriano	4.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Max Fried	5.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	6.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Zack Wheeler	6.5	122	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	2.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Daniel Lynch IV	1.5	-137	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Drew Rasmussen	1.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Jack Perkins	3.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Keider Montero	1.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Logan Gilbert	1.5	-166	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Max Fried	1.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Merrill Kelly	2.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Parker Messick	2.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Payton Tolle	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Roki Sasaki	1.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-109	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Shane Drohan	1.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Tyler Phillips	1.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Hits Allow	Cade Cavalli	5.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jose Soriano	5.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Hits Allow	Keider Montero	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Hits Allow	Kyle Leahy	5.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Hits Allow	Payton Tolle	5.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Walks	Carmen Mlodzinski	0.5	-230	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Walks	Daniel Lynch IV	0.5	-242	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Walks	Drew Rasmussen	1.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Walks	George Klassen	2.5	-114	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Walks	Keider Montero	1.5	-191	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Walks	Noah Schultz	1.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Walks	Shane Baz	1.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Walks	Zack Wheeler	1.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Walks	Zebby Matthews	1.5	-183	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Total	Over	8.0	-104	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Total	Over	8.0	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Total	Over	7.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	YRFI	YRFI	-	135	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-06	K Prop	Brandon Young	4.5	-157	-	LOSS	-1.000	Brandon Young: 4.0 (line 4.5)
2026-08-06	K Prop	Kohl Drake	3.5	-155	-	LOSS	-1.000	Kohl Drake: 1.0 (line 3.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	523	56%	-14.42u	70	46%	-14.27u	244	57%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	463	58%	+8.43u	62	53%	-4.42u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	161	58%	+5.16u	21	81%	+8.41u	44	64%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1620	74%	-30.21u	910	74%	-26.99u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	517	57%	-19.48u	107	53%	-10.11u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	387	61%	-5.07u	92	66%	+7.96u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	53	70%	-0.98u	15	53%	-3.88u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	34	53%	-0.50u	3	33%	-1.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	4	25%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	2
YRFI	👀 WATCH	3	67%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	3
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	116	47%	-12.87u	7	71%	+1.32u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	55	40%	-9.78u	5	60%	+0.73u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	27	56%	-0.87u	24	54%	-1.30u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	570	52%	-53.65u	66	59%	+1.81u	85	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 28 total candidate(s); season N 523, 14d N 70	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 5 actionable / 14 total candidate(s); season N 463, 14d N 62	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 161, 14d N 21	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 30/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 20 total candidate(s); season N 53, 14d N 15	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 276 total candidate(s); season N 34, 14d N 3	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 12 total candidate(s); season N 116, 14d N 7	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 2 actionable / 7 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 27, 14d N 24	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 6 actionable / 229 total candidate(s); season N 570, 14d N 66	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 229 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 785 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 224 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 762 pitcher(s), 3366 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 575 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 18 team(s), 162 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 389 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 915 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 162 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 10 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels, Athletics, San Diego Padres, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Cincinnati Reds, Seattle Mariners, Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals, Chicago White Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves, Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies, Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles, Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, Colorado Rockies, Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies, Cleveland Guardians, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 4 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 30 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 335 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 29 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 31 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 31 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 28 line(s)/15 game(s); Earned Runs 30 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 140, bovada_direct 5, betmgm 3, fanatics 1
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 3206 market side(s) checked \| 3206 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 15 game(s) fetched \| 15 with ML odds \| 15 with total odds \| 3 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 229 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 10 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 623 \| batter bats 402 \| batter hand splits 145 \| pitcher HR splits 59 \| batter pitch-type 575 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 265 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 112 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation blocked

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+120	-129	1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+187	-202	1.5 (-118)	-1.5 (-102)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	+100	-108	-1.5 (+150)	1.5 (-182)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+120	-128	1.5 (-180)	-1.5 (+148)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+240	-260	1.5 (+108)	-1.5 (-130)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	+137	-147	1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	-135	+125	-1.5 (+118)	1.5 (-143)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	+158	-170	1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	8:11 PM	-165	+153	-1.5 (-107)	1.5 (-112)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	8:16 PM	+129	-139	1.5 (-187)	-1.5 (+154)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	+153	-165	1.5 (-144)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-170	+158	-1.5 (-111)	1.5 (-108)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+101	-108	-1.5 (+151)	1.5 (-183)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:46 PM	+104	-112	1.5 (-219)	-1.5 (+178)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	-128	+120	-1.5 (+124)	1.5 (-149)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

4 Grade A | 122 Grade B | 1057 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 4 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: full-lineup opp K% 20.0%, 6/9 bats with platoon edge, lineup BVP K% 13.8% over 29 PA	K Prop	Jose Soriano Over	JAY@PHI	6:41 PM	4.5	5.7	-126	BetOnline Over 4.5 -125 \| best price	26.6%	✓✓✓✓–✓	Best Signal
A	👀 Watch Signal Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization	Batter Walks	Kyle Schwarber Over	JAY@PHI	6:41 PM	0.5	0.8	-134	Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 \| best price	70.2%	✓✓✓✓✓✓	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: heavy juice -157	Batter H+R+RBI	Otto Lopez Over	ANG@MAR	7:11 PM	1.5	3.0	-157	DK Over 1.5 -157 \| exact	103.3%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.4, heavy juice -157	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams Over	RED@NAT	6:46 PM	1.5	2.9	-157	BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 \| best price	92.4%	✓✓✓✓✓✓	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (28 play(s))

K Prop - Cade Cavalli Over

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 6

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Payton Tolle Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.75

Pitcher Earned Runs - Roki Sasaki Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Pitcher Earned Runs - Parker Messick Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter Hits - CJ Abrams Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.75

Batter Total Bases - Tyler Stephenson Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.25

F5 Total - Over 3.5

Projection: -Displayed: Over 3.5 -144Market line: majority 4 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Over 3.5 -144 | exactOwn-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 4 / avg N/A

K Prop - Nathan Eovaldi Over

Projection: 8.7Displayed: Over 7.5 +120Market line: majority 6.5 | avg 6.93Recommended: FanDuel Over 6.5 -154 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 3/6 OVER | avg line 6.93 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Selected line 7.5 is split from majority 6.5 / avg 6.93

K Prop - Roki Sasaki Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.5

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Nathan Eovaldi Over

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

Pitcher Earned Runs - Kyle Leahy Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Pitcher Earned Runs - Jack Perkins Over

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 3

Pitcher Earned Runs - Nathan Eovaldi Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.83

Batter Hits - Sal Stewart Under

Projection: 0.9Displayed: Under 1.5 -240Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Wilyer Abreu Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Luis Arraez Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.7

Batter Total Bases - Nathan Church Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Batter Total Bases - Royce Lewis Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.25

Batter Total Bases - Anthony Seigler Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jonathan Aranda Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Batter Total Bases - Cole Young Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.25

Batter Total Bases - Yainer Diaz Over

Projection: 1.8Displayed: Over 1.5 +145Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Kody Clemens Over

Projection: 1.7Displayed: Over 1.5 +130Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Garrett Mitchell Under

Projection: 1.4Displayed: Under 1.5 -210Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 0.75Recommended: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | exactOwn-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.75

Batter Total Bases - Colt Keith Over

Projection: 1.6Displayed: Over 1.5 +145Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 0.9Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.9

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Jose Soriano Over 4.5 (-126) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-125	-103	Recommended
BetRivers	4.5	-132	-103	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-126	-101	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-130	+102	-
Fanatics	4.5	-125	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 26.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.6% / under 47.4%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Jose Soriano: K/9 8.9, proj 5.7K over 5.4 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.4% | put-away% 21.1% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Curveball (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: John Tumpane — 9.0 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.03x)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Curveball: 27.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs José Soriano: 29 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .824
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 29 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 19.3%, L7 14.0%, season 23.2%, top-6 20.3%, BVP 13.8%/29 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.9%; Confirmed Lineup; split coverage 89%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 14.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 20.3% (6/6); lineup K% 20.0% (8/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.77
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 86%

⚠ K final QC: full-lineup opp K% 20.0%, 6/9 bats with platoon edge, lineup BVP K% 13.8% over 29 PA -- A risk note

A Best Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-134) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
DK	0.5	-134	-103	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓✓✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.85 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/110 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/56 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 0.70 | Day Batter Walks: 59/110 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.65
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-157) diff 103.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-162	+121	-
DK	1.5	-157	+118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 3.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 103.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.449 (85 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 72/112 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 72/112 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.35
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR trust gate: heavy juice -157 -- A risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-157) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-165	+125	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+113	-
DK	1.5	-157	+118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓✓✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.49
Base projection 2.49 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.347, xSLG 0.530 (58 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/113 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 35/57 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.60 | Day Batter HRR: 66/113 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.49
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.4, heavy juice -157 -- A risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (122 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Merrill Kelly (ARIZ) Over 3.5 (-130) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 41.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.46K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, L7 20.4%, season 20.5% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -130, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats -- downgraded for monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Jack Perkins Over 4.5 (-123) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -123

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	-125	-103	-
BetRivers	4.5	-127	-105	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-123	-104	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100	-
Fanatics	4.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 24.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.10K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.0% / under 48.0%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Jack Perkins: K/9 10.9, proj 5.6K over 4.7 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.4% | put-away% 25.2% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Changeup (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Manny Gonzalez — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 32.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jack Perkins: 16 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 18.8% | AVG .077 | OPS .558
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 23.0%, L7 18.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 12.5%/16 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/27 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 3.30
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +2.30 vs season

⚠ K final QC: lineup BVP K% 12.5% over 16 PA, pitch-type boost on 20% usage pitch -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Max Fried Under 5.5 (-154) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -154

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.21 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Under 4.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	4.5	-167	+125	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	5.5	+125	-164	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+121	-154	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+116	-148	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 19.8% vs 17% min; cushion -1.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.7% / under 57.3%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Max Fried: K/9 8.9, proj 4.4K over 5.3 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.241 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mark Ripperger — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Changeup: 26.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Max Fried: 40 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 2.5% | AVG .128 | OPS .278
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 40 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.8%, split 18.5%, L7 16.9%, season 21.2%, top-6 18.4%, BVP 10.0%/40 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.4% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.23
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5
K% trend: support +4.7 ppts (recent 28.1% vs season 23.4%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 106 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-154) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 5 play(s) (B 5)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jose Soriano Under 5.5 (-144) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 30.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.70 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.18, BB% 11.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs José Soriano: 29 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .824
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 19.3%, L7 14.0%, season 23.2%, top-6 20.3%, BVP 13.8%/29 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.3% (6/6); lineup K% 20.0% (8/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Keider Montero Under 5.5 (-156) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 29.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.79 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.03, BB% 5.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.9%, L7 19.2%, season 20.9% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/24 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kyle Leahy Under 5.5 (-151) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.84 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.17, BB% 7.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 17.4 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.92x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Leahy: 10 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .100 | OPS .300
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 21.8%, L7 23.0%, season 22.8%, top-6 23.5%, BVP 50.0%/10 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.5% (4/6); lineup K% 22.8% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 5.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-151) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Payton Tolle Under 5.5 (-166) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.75 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -166 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-140	+105	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	-150	+105	-
DK	5.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.6% / under 58.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.75 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Payton Tolle: 22 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .610
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 29.4%, L7 20.8%, season 22.7%, BVP 27.3%/22 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 4.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-166) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cade Cavalli Under 5.5 (-156) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.88 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.19, BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cade Cavalli: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 23.5%, L7 28.7%, season 25.3%, top-6 22.6% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Walks — 9 play(s) (B 9)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Carmen Mlodzinski Over 0.5 (-230) diff 144.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 65.3% / Under 34.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-230	+170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-240	+165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.2218938929643695 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 144.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 3.8 IP (BB% 7.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 2.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 65.3% / under 34.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 65.3%
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 24 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .238 | OPS .673
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.5%, L7 25.7%, season 22.7%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 29.2%/24 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 6.7%, L7 7.4%, season 8.5%, BVP 8.3%/24 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/25 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-230); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Daniel Lynch IV Over 0.5 (-242) diff 122.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -242 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -242

Selected market: Over 66.4% / Under 33.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -242 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.1099148117824285 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 122.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 3.0 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (HIGH; default 5.0 IP; recent 1.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 8.5 outs/2.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 66.4% / under 33.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Daniel Lynch IV: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .452
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.3%, L7 24.6%, season 21.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 10.5%, L7 9.4%, season 10.9% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 9/46 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-242) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Noah Schultz Over 1.5 (-126) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-126	-105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-125	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.089538282818158 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 4.3 IP (BB% 10.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Noah Schultz: 2 PA | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 17.1%, L7 21.5%, season 22.3%, top-6 15.2% (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 9.2%, L7 11.8%, season 9.7% (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 15.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — George Klassen Under 2.5 (-114) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-117	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.5437783930235067 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 38.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 3.5 IP (BB% 9.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.5 IP (HIGH; season 2.3 IP/GS; recent 2.1 IP/2 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.3% / under 49.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 19.0%, L7 19.5%, season 21.6% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 9.7%, L7 8.0%, season 8.8% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 0/2 (0%) | L10 0/2 (0%) | L20 0/2 (0%) | Season 0/2 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 0/2 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Keider Montero Under 1.5 (-191) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.6% / Under 61.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+142	-191	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.0031783040269 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.23 over 5.0 IP (BB% 5.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.6% / under 61.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%
Opp batting adj: 0.91x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.9%, L7 19.2%, season 20.9% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 6.2%, L7 8.7%, season 7.0% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 19/24 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-191) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Zebby Matthews Over 1.5 (-183) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 60.5% / Under 39.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-183	+137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9915223006426244 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.1 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.5% / under 39.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.17x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 11 PA | K% 45.5% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .111 | OPS .384
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 23.7%, L7 26.8%, season 21.2% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.3%, split 10.9%, L7 12.6%, season 10.7% (adj 1.17x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-183); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Drew Rasmussen Under 1.5 (-158) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.035445968252672 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.19 over 5.2 IP (BB% 4.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 46 PA | K% 26.1% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .222 | OPS .706
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 18.5%, L7 21.7%, season 22.9%, BVP 26.1%/46 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.3%, L7 11.6%, season 8.8%, BVP 2.2%/46 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 17/21 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-158) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Zack Wheeler Under 1.5 (-168) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -168 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.0680944782231239 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.25 over 5.4 IP (BB% 5.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: 0.82x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 93 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 1.1% | AVG .267 | OPS .646
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 18.7%, L7 19.9%, season 19.5%, BVP 20.4%/93 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 5.9%, split 6.6%, L7 6.6%, season 7.3%, BVP 1.1%/93 PA (adj 0.82x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-168) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Shane Baz Over 1.5 (-151) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-151	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.9234487150777306 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.4 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .158 | OPS .501
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.8%, L7 25.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 6.9%, L7 10.8%, season 8.6%, BVP 9.5%/21 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-151) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 12 play(s) (B 12)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Roki Sasaki Over 1.5 (-159) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-159	+119	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.10, ERA 4.45)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Roki Sasaki: 22 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 13.6% | AVG .263 | OPS .943
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 18.4%, L7 19.3%, season 19.3%, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-159) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Gilbert Over 1.5 (-166) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+130	-
DK	1.5	-166	+125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.36 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 3.47, ERA 3.55)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.4% / under 41.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 60 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .291 | OPS .768
Opponent K profile: composite 17.2%, split 15.8%, L7 17.4%, season 19.1%, BVP 18.3%/60 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-166) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Keider Montero Over 1.5 (-175) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-185	+135	-
DK	1.5	-175	+131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.89 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.55, ERA 3.24)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.9%, L7 19.2%, season 20.9% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-175) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Drohan Over 1.5 (-164) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-164	+123	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.45 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.66, ERA 3.73)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 21.3%, L7 19.5%, season 21.3% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 (-151) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-160	+120	-
DK	2.5	-151	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 36.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.51 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.94, ERA 4.32)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 205 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 11.2% | AVG .293 | OPS .901
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.2%, L7 20.4%, season 20.5%, BVP 15.6%/205 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 3.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-151) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Parker Messick Under 2.5 (-155) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+116	-155	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.79 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.47, ERA 2.24)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.2% / under 56.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Parker Messick: 43 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .244 | OPS .669
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 21.2%, L7 27.4%, season 23.9%, BVP 25.6%/43 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/22 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-155) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Payton Tolle Over 1.5 (-153) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-153	+115	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.27 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.78, ERA 3.26)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Payton Tolle: 22 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .610
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 29.4%, L7 20.8%, season 22.7%, BVP 27.3%/22 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-153) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Phillips Over 1.5 (-159) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	-
DK	1.5	-159	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.38 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.58, ERA 3.54)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tyler Phillips: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 26.5%, L7 28.2%, season 25.2% (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/28 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.25 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Daniel Lynch IV Under 1.5 (-137) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.19 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 4.17, ERA 1.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (HIGH; default 5.0 IP; recent 1.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 8.5 outs/2.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Daniel Lynch IV: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .452
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.3%, L7 24.6%, season 21.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 44/46 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 10/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cade Cavalli Under 2.5 (-142) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.30 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.43, ERA 3.13)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cade Cavalli: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 23.5%, L7 28.7%, season 25.3%, top-6 22.6% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/24 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Feltner Over 2.5 (-109) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	-
DK	2.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.97 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.76, ERA 6.82)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .158 | OPS .474
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 19.7%, L7 22.6%, season 20.5%, top-6 18.7%, BVP 26.3%/19 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.7% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/16 (44%) | Season 7/16 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Drew Rasmussen Over 1.5 (-161) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-161	+121	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.02 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.14, ERA 3.53)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 46 PA | K% 26.1% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .222 | OPS .706
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 18.5%, L7 21.7%, season 22.9%, BVP 26.1%/46 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-161) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 86 play(s) (B 86)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-522) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -522 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -522

Selected market: Over 21.1% / Under 78.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -522 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+345	-522	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.67x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 12 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .273
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/108 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 92/108 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-522) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-478) diff 75.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -478

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -475; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-475	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+319	-478	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/105 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 89/105 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-478) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-700) diff 72.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.4% / Under 82.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -700 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+441	-700	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+380	-900	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/107 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 88/107 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-700) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~88%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-494) diff 67.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -494 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -494

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -494 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+329	-494	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/100 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 83/100 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-494) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-424) diff 65.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -424 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -424

Selected market: Over 24.2% / Under 75.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -424 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+287	-424	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .310 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/107 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 92/107 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-424) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-293) diff 65.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -293

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+205	-293	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 92/110 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 92/110 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-293) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-900) diff 64.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/106 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 86/106 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-900) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~90%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-445) diff 63.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -445 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -445

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -445 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	-
DK	0.5	+300	-445	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/101 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 79/101 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-445); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-302) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -302

Selected market: Over 30.0% / Under 70.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+211	-302	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Noah Schultz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 97/114 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 97/114 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-302) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-457) diff 60.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -457

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 77.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+307	-457	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 84/107 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 84/107 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-457) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-287) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -287

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+201	-287	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 89/116 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 89/116 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-287); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-461) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -461

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+309	-461	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 89/116 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 89/116 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-461) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-473) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -473 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -473

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -473 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+316	-473	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 89/116 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 89/116 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-473) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-397) diff 59.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -397 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -397

Selected market: Over 25.3% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -397 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+280	-420	-
DK	0.5	+270	-397	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.3% fallback
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-397) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-368) diff 59.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+253	-368	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.3% fallback
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-368) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-319) diff 59.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -319 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -319

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -319 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+222	-319	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.3% fallback
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-319) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-292) diff 57.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -292

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+204	-292	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/105 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 72/105 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-292) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-528) diff 57.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -528 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -528

Selected market: Over 20.9% / Under 79.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -528 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+349	-528	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/105 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 72/105 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-528) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-316) diff 56.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -316 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -316

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -316 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+220	-316	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/115 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 91/115 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-316) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-551) diff 55.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -551

Selected market: Over 20.4% / Under 79.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+362	-551	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/111 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 81/111 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-551); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-342) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -342

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+236	-342	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/110 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 80/110 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-342) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-425) diff 54.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -425 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+288	-425	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/99 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 74/99 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-425) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-255) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+180	-255	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/112 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 92/112 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Heavy juice (-255); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-465) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -465

Selected market: Over 22.8% / Under 77.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+311	-465	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/112 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 92/112 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-465) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-477) diff 52.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -477 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -477

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -477 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+319	-477	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/115 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 86/115 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-477); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-436) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -436 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -436

Selected market: Over 23.8% / Under 76.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -436 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+294	-436	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 90/111 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 90/111 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-436); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-363) diff 51.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -363 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -363

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -363 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+249	-363	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-363) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-514) diff 51.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -514 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -514

Selected market: Over 21.3% / Under 78.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -514 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+340	-514	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-514) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tyler Tolbert Under 0.5 (-576) diff 51.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -576 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -576

Selected market: Over 19.8% / Under 80.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -576 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+376	-576	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-576) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-326) diff 51.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -326

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+226	-326	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/111 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 79/111 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

⚠ Heavy juice (-326); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-328) diff 48.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -328

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+227	-328	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/108 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 87/108 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-328) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-231) diff 48.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -231 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -231

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -231 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+165	-231	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/111 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 91/111 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-231) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-369) diff 48.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -369 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -369

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -369 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+253	-369	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/113 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 78/113 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-369) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-275) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -275

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -275 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+193	-275	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/107 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 78/107 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-275) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-268) diff 46.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -268

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+189	-268	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/111 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 82/111 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-268); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-319) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -319

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+222	-319	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 3 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/97 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 32/48 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 70/97 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-319); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-563) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -563

Selected market: Over 20.1% / Under 79.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+369	-563	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-563) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-555) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -555 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -555

Selected market: Over 20.3% / Under 79.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -555 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+364	-555	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-555) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brian Serven Under 0.5 (-582) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -582 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -582

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -582 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+379	-582	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-582) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-420) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -420 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -420

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -420 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+285	-420	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-420) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-750) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -750 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+467	-750	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+380	-900	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-750) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~88%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-468) diff 45.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -460 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -468

Selected market: Over 22.7% / Under 77.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -460 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+314	-468	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-468) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-242) diff 45.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -242

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+172	-242	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-242) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-263) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+185	-263	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .545
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/85 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/48 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 24/37 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 54/85 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-263) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-223) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -223

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+159	-223	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-223) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brenton Doyle Under 0.5 (-487) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -487

Selected market: Over 22.1% / Under 77.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	-
DK	0.5	+325	-487	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-487) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Randal Grichuk Under 0.5 (-480) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -480 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -480

Selected market: Over 22.3% / Under 77.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -480 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+320	-480	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-480) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-199) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -199

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+143	-199	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-199) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-310) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.5% / Under 70.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -290; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+216	-310	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-310); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-290) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -290

Selected market: Over 30.7% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+180	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+203	-290	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-290); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-257) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -257

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+181	-257	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/111 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 73/111 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-257) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-247) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+175	-247	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 73/108 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-247) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-339) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -339

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+235	-339	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/97 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 71/97 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-339) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-255) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -255 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+180	-255	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-255) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-247) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+175	-247	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-247) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-393) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -393

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+268	-393	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/108 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 71/108 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-393) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-439) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -439

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+296	-439	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/108 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 71/108 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-439) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-235) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -235 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -235

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -235 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+180	-250	-
DK	0.5	+167	-235	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-235) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-149) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+117	-157	-
DK	0.5	+108	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-292) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -292

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+205	-292	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-292) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-239) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -239

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+169	-239	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-239) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brady House Under 0.5 (-337) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -337

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+233	-337	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-337) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-235) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -235 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -235

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -235 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+167	-235	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-235) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-222) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -209 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -222

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -209 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+158	-222	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-222) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-213) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -197 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -213

Selected market: Over 36.8% / Under 63.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -197 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+152	-213	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-213) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-247) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+175	-247	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-247) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-268) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -268

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+189	-268	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-268) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-426) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -426 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -426

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -426 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+288	-426	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/105 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 74/105 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-426) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-271) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -271 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -271

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -271 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+190	-271	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/111 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 83/111 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-271) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-237) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+168	-237	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-237); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-352) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -352 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -352

Selected market: Over 27.3% / Under 72.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -352 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+242	-352	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-352); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-187) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+134	-187	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Heavy juice (-187); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-233) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -233

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+166	-233	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/104 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 32/53 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 67/104 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-233) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 (-114) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
DK	0.5	-114	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 26/56 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Walks: 50/105 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.64

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-221) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -221

Selected market: Over 36.1% / Under 63.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+157	-221	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/113 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 80/113 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-221) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-285) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+200	-285	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/113 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 86/113 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-285) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-185) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Heavy juice (-185); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-283) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -283

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	-
DK	0.5	+198	-283	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 77/109 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-283) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-296) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -296

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+207	-296	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-296) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-292) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -292

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+205	-292	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/111 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 80/111 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-292) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-353) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -353

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+243	-353	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/112 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 73/112 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-353) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-440) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -440 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -440

Selected market: Over 23.6% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -440 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+297	-440	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-440); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-242) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -242 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -242

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -242 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+172	-242	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/114 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/60 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 76/114 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-242) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-235) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -235

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+167	-235	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-235); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-289) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -289

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	-
DK	0.5	+203	-289	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-289); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-352) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -352 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -352

Selected market: Over 27.3% / Under 72.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -352 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+242	-352	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-352); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-142) diff 85.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-155	+108	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 85.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.62
Base projection 2.62 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.532, xSLG 0.846 (45 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.917 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 63/114 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/59 over 1.5 (70%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 63/114 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.62

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, raw gap 1.3 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-142) diff 81.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 81.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.474 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 37 PA | 10/32 | HR 2 | K% 21.6% | BB% 13.5% | OPS 1.062
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 37 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/112 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 34/56 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.55 | Day Batter HRR: 60/112 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.16

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, raw gap 1.2 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-137) diff 81.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 81.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.301, xSLG 0.397 (80 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/114 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 33/59 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 60/114 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, raw gap 1.2 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-144) diff 72.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-144	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 72.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.39
Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.390, xSLG 0.552 (40 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: JT Brubaker contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/106 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 30/54 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.69 | Day Batter HRR: 57/106 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▸ Total — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-115) edge 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 8 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8 -115

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 8 at 9 books | 8.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 8 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 8.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8	-118	-	-
BetOnline	8	-115	-	-
BetRivers	8	-110	-	Recommended
BetUS	8	-115	-	-
Bovada Direct	8	-115	-	-
DK	8	-115	-	Selected
FanDuel	8	-118	-	-
LowVig	8	-113	-	-
MyBookie	8	-115	-	-
theScore Bet	8.5	+105	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓–✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Model total: 10.2 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Max Fried (LHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Tyler Mahle (RHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs RHP (tough)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 110 (team 100)
Atlanta Braves confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 108 (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 10.2
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.09
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.08, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 12 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Stats within normal range

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ ⚠ High Total edge 26% (≥25%) — verify model inputs / check line movement

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-118) edge 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -118

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books | 8 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is LowVig Over 8 +107; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-118	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-115	-	-
DK	7.5	-118	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-115	-	Recommended
MyBookie	7.5	-117	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-115	-	-
BetOnline	8	+105	-	-
BetRivers	8	-103	-	-
BetUS	8	+105	-	-
LowVig	8	+107	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 10 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Model total: 9.4 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Zack Wheeler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 97 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: José Soriano (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Philadelphia Phillies confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 98)
Toronto Blue Jays confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 97 (team 94)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.4
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.08, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Weather: Wind 10 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Zack Wheeler elite xFIP (2.72)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-144) edge 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers (F5) | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 4 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 4 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	3.5	-144	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	4	-110	-115	-
BetOnline	4	-110	-110	-
BetUS	4	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	4	-115	-115	-
Caesars	4	-105	-125	Raw BestVerify
MyBookie	4	-108	-114	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Globe Life Field (HITTER)
Nathan Eovaldi xFIP 3.27
Shane Baz xFIP 4.20
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 100)
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.02
F5 environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP)
Away SP: Shane Baz (RHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (1057 signal(s))

▸ Pitcher Walks — 19 play(s) (A 3 | B 1 | C 15)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Pitcher Walks — Jose Soriano Over 1.5 (-186) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -186 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -186 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-186	+139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.554849865255332 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 70.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.48 over 5.2 IP (BB% 11.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.9% / under 39.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs José Soriano: 29 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .824
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 19.3%, L7 14.0%, season 23.2%, top-6 20.3%, BVP 13.8%/29 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 8.8%, L7 10.9%, season 8.0%, BVP 6.9%/29 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.3% (6/6); lineup K% 20.0% (8/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/22 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-186); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Pitcher Walks — Tyler Mahle Over 1.5 (-165) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-165	+124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-175	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.1770543448027118 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 5.1 IP (BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tyler Mahle: 49 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .250 | OPS .874
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 19.7%, L7 24.6%, season 24.4%, top-6 22.0%, BVP 20.4%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 11.6%, L7 8.7%, season 9.8%, BVP 8.2%/49 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Pitcher Walks — Cade Cavalli Over 1.5 (-138) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8669573603394138 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 5.4 IP (BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.17x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cade Cavalli: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 23.5%, L7 28.7%, season 25.3%, top-6 22.6% (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.3%, split 10.4%, L7 14.0%, season 9.7% (adj 1.17x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Max Fried Over 1.5 (-149) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-149	+112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5392584328241823 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 5.1 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: 0.86x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Max Fried: 40 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 2.5% | AVG .128 | OPS .278
Opponent K profile: composite 17.8%, split 18.5%, L7 16.9%, season 21.2%, top-6 18.4%, BVP 10.0%/40 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.4%, split 6.4%, L7 7.2%, season 7.9%, BVP 2.5%/40 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Tyler Phillips Over 1.5 (-113) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-113	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8388996034756482 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 4.2 IP (BB% 9.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.5% / under 50.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tyler Phillips: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 26.5%, L7 28.2%, season 25.2% (adj 1.10x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 11.3%, L7 5.8%, season 8.4% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Zach Thornton Over 1.5 (-114) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8342112246342945 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.1 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, L7 25.7%, season 22.7%, top-6 19.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, L7 7.4%, season 8.5% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ronel Blanco Under 2.5 (-170) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+127	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0149731997473426 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 19.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 4.7 IP (BB% 9.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.2% / under 58.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Ronel Blanco: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .182
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 21.2%, L7 19.3%, season 22.0% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 10.1%, L7 8.9%, season 9.1% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 1/3 (33%) | L10 1/3 (33%) | L20 1/3 (33%) | Season 1/3 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.67 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 1/3 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Parker Messick Over 1.5 (+103) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.7308282801704218 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.5 IP (BB% 7.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Parker Messick: 43 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .244 | OPS .669
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 21.2%, L7 27.4%, season 23.9%, BVP 25.6%/43 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 10.1%, L7 9.3%, season 8.9%, BVP 4.7%/43 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jack Perkins Over 1.5 (-154) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-154	+116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.7184734928061047 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.5 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jack Perkins: 16 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 18.8% | AVG .077 | OPS .558
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 23.0%, L7 18.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 12.5%/16 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 7.1%, L7 9.3%, season 8.2%, BVP 18.8%/16 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/27 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Roki Sasaki Under 2.5 (-197) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -197 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -197

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -197 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+147	-197	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.189432929968939 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 5.0 IP (BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 37.9% / under 62.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Roki Sasaki: 22 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 13.6% | AVG .263 | OPS .943
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 18.4%, L7 19.3%, season 19.3%, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 10.7%, L7 8.2%, season 8.7%, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ryan Feltner Over 1.5 (-169) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-169	+127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6805703094516657 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.6 IP (BB% 9.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .158 | OPS .474
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 19.7%, L7 22.6%, season 20.5%, top-6 18.7%, BVP 26.3%/19 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 8.7%, L7 9.3%, season 8.5%, BVP 0.0%/19 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.7% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kevin Gausman Under 1.5 (-140) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.347094512709251 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.3 IP (BB% 6.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: 0.90x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kevin Gausman: 58 PA | K% 10.3% | BB% 1.7% | AVG .296 | OPS .889
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 23.8%, L7 14.8%, season 21.1%, top-6 23.2%, BVP 10.3%/58 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 9.3%, L7 5.8%, season 8.2%, BVP 1.7%/58 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.2% (5/6); lineup K% 21.8% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Merrill Kelly Under 2.5 (-190) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+142	-190	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+130	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.2538984054638456 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 5.3 IP (BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.7% / under 61.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 205 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 11.2% | AVG .293 | OPS .901
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.2%, L7 20.4%, season 20.5%, BVP 15.6%/205 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 11.9%, L7 5.5%, season 9.8%, BVP 11.2%/205 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Gilbert Under 1.5 (-145) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+110	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.3695971056282625 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.23 over 5.9 IP (BB% 5.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.6% / under 55.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 60 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .291 | OPS .768
Opponent K profile: composite 17.2%, split 15.8%, L7 17.4%, season 19.1%, BVP 18.3%/60 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 9.2%, L7 6.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 8.3%/60 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Robbie Ray Over 2.5 (+151) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +151

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +151 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.70358124638371 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.48 over 5.3 IP (BB% 11.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 37.3% / under 62.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 60 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .308 | OPS 1.073
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 19.6%, L7 18.8%, season 21.5%, BVP 13.3%/60 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 9.1%, L7 11.6%, season 8.9%, BVP 10.0%/60 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Nathan Eovaldi Over 1.5 (+131) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.5655007731352635 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.6 IP (BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.5% / under 59.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 43 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .447 | OPS 1.094
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 24.2%, L7 29.0%, season 24.4%, BVP 23.3%/43 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 10.7%, L7 12.2%, season 10.3%, BVP 7.0%/43 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Payton Tolle Over 1.5 (+170) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +170

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+170	-229	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.546963977305502 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 5.3 IP (BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 34.7% / under 65.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Payton Tolle: 22 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .610
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 29.4%, L7 20.8%, season 22.7%, BVP 27.3%/22 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 9.8%, L7 6.7%, season 8.8%, BVP 4.5%/22 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Shane Drohan Under 1.5 (-115) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4637754060563342 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.5 IP (BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 21.3%, L7 19.5%, season 21.3% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 7.6%, L7 8.4%, season 8.6% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kyle Leahy Under 1.5 (-167) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+126	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.465431105021825 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.0 IP (BB% 7.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 17.4 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: 0.86x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Leahy: 10 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .100 | OPS .300
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 21.8%, L7 23.0%, season 22.8%, top-6 23.5%, BVP 50.0%/10 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.5%, split 8.5%, L7 5.9%, season 8.1%, BVP 0.0%/10 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.5% (4/6); lineup K% 22.8% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 18 play(s) (A 2 | C 16)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Pitcher Earned Runs — Chase Petty Over 0.5 (-145) diff 260.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 260.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.98 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 4.67, ERA 4.62)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 1.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 5.5 outs/1.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.4%, L7 24.3%, season 21.4% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/15 (47%) | Season 7/15 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Pitcher Earned Runs — Max Fried Over 1.5 (-158) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-158	+119	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.17 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.68, ERA 3.79)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Max Fried: 40 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 2.5% | AVG .128 | OPS .278
Opponent K profile: composite 17.8%, split 18.5%, L7 16.9%, season 21.2%, top-6 18.4%, BVP 10.0%/40 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Adrian Houser Over 1.5 (+105) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.79 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.80, ERA 3.93)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, L7 20.6%, season 22.8% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.08 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Leahy Under 2.5 (-162) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+121	-162	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.78 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.99, ERA 2.72)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 17.4 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Leahy: 10 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .100 | OPS .300
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 21.8%, L7 23.0%, season 22.8%, top-6 23.5%, BVP 50.0%/10 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.5% (4/6); lineup K% 22.8% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Carmen Mlodzinski Over 1.5 (-152) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-152	+114	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.01 over 3.8 IP (xFIP 4.29, ERA 3.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 2.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 24 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .238 | OPS .673
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.5%, L7 25.7%, season 22.7%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 29.2%/24 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 9/25 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jose Soriano Under 2.5 (-126) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-105	-126	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.59 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.71, ERA 3.26)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs José Soriano: 29 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .824
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 19.3%, L7 14.0%, season 23.2%, top-6 20.3%, BVP 13.8%/29 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.3% (6/6); lineup K% 20.0% (8/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zebby Matthews Over 2.5 (-135) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	-105	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	-135	+102	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.07 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.25, ERA 6.13)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 11 PA | K% 45.5% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .111 | OPS .384
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 23.7%, L7 26.8%, season 21.2% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Noah Schultz Over 2.5 (+103) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+103	-137	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.60 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.84, ERA 5.67)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Noah Schultz: 2 PA | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 17.1%, L7 21.5%, season 22.3%, top-6 15.2% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 15.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/14 (64%) | Season 9/14 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zack Wheeler Under 1.5 (+102) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-130	-
DK	1.5	-135	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.34 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 2.72, ERA 2.62)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 93 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 1.1% | AVG .267 | OPS .646
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 18.7%, L7 19.9%, season 19.5%, BVP 20.4%/93 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zach Thornton Under 2.5 (-136) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+103	-136	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.1% / under 53.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, L7 25.7%, season 22.7%, top-6 19.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Mahle Under 2.5 (-112) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	-
DK	2.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.30 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.11, ERA 4.72)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tyler Mahle: 49 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .250 | OPS .874
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 19.7%, L7 24.6%, season 24.4%, top-6 22.0%, BVP 20.4%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jack Perkins Over 2.5 (-124) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 3.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	3.5	+120	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.18 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.12, ERA 7.31)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jack Perkins: 16 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 18.8% | AVG .077 | OPS .558
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 23.0%, L7 18.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 12.5%/16 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +1.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — George Klassen Over 2.5 (-112) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-112	-118	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.49 over 3.5 IP (xFIP 4.40, ERA 7.54)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.5 IP (HIGH; season 2.3 IP/GS; recent 2.1 IP/2 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 19.0%, L7 19.5%, season 21.6% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/2 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 (-145) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+109	-145	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.06 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.82, ERA 4.71)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kevin Gausman: 58 PA | K% 10.3% | BB% 1.7% | AVG .296 | OPS .889
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 23.8%, L7 14.8%, season 21.1%, top-6 23.2%, BVP 10.3%/58 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.2% (5/6); lineup K% 21.8% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nathan Eovaldi Under 2.5 (-165) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+120	Raw BestVerify
Fanatics	1.5	-170	+120	-
DK	2.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.79 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.27, ERA 4.79)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 43 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .447 | OPS 1.094
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 24.2%, L7 29.0%, season 24.4%, BVP 23.3%/43 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Baz Under 2.5 (-116) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	-
DK	2.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.98 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.46)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .158 | OPS .501
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.8%, L7 25.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robbie Ray Under 2.5 (-158) Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+119	-158	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.10 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.74, ERA 2.70)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 60 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .308 | OPS 1.073
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 19.6%, L7 18.8%, season 21.5%, BVP 13.3%/60 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ronel Blanco Under 2.5 (-159) Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+119	-159	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.01 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 5.95)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Ronel Blanco: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .182
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 21.2%, L7 19.3%, season 22.0% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 0/3 (0%) | L10 0/3 (0%) | L20 0/3 (0%) | Season 0/3 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 0/3 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 180 play(s) (A 1 | B 4 | C 175)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (-116) diff 63.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-116	-119	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.82 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/116 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/59 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 57/116 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (-112) diff 87.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -112

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-112	-123	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.94 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.80
Base projection 0.80 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/96 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/48 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter Walks: 27/48 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter Walks: 52/96 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.80

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Over 0.5 (+122) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +122

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	-
DK	0.5	+122	-169	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 37/95 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/41 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 20/54 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 37/95 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ben Rice Over 0.5 (+110) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+117	-157	-
DK	0.5	+110	-152	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/110 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/48 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 20/62 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 39/110 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (+128) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +128

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+128	-178	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 43/86 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 18/41 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 43/86 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (+123) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-160	-
DK	0.5	+123	-170	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Base projection 0.71 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.917 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 59/114 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 59/114 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.71

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-293) diff 50.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -293

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+205	-293	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 13 PA | 7/13 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.154
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 77/114 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-439) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -439 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -439

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -439 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+296	-439	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 74/108 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-424) diff 49.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -424 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -424

Selected market: Over 24.2% / Under 75.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -424 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+290	-440	-
DK	0.5	+287	-424	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/106 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 83/106 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-415) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -415 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -415

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -415 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+281	-415	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-430	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/105 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 79/105 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Over 0.5 (-107) diff 46.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -107

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-102	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-107	-128	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/111 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 23/56 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 53/111 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.65

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-504) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -504

Selected market: Over 21.6% / Under 78.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+334	-504	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/100 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/48 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 74/100 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Ornelas Under 0.5 (-1080) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -1080 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1080

Selected market: Over 13.0% / Under 87.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -1080 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+630	-1080	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+475	-1400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-404) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -404

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+275	-404	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Edouard Julien Under 0.5 (-320) diff 45.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+223	-320	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-243) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+172	-243	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/107 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 84/107 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-163) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	-
DK	0.5	+118	-163	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sean Murphy Under 0.5 (-243) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+172	-243	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 (-330) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+229	-330	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-497) diff 44.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -497 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -497

Selected market: Over 21.8% / Under 78.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -497 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+331	-497	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/110 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 81/110 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luisangel Acuna Under 0.5 (-740) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -740 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -740

Selected market: Over 16.8% / Under 83.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -740 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+462	-740	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+380	-900	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Edgar Quero Under 0.5 (-541) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -541

Selected market: Over 20.6% / Under 79.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+356	-541	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-291) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -291

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+204	-291	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/106 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 80/106 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-283) diff 42.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -283 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -283

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -283 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+199	-283	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/114 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 82/114 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-393) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -393

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+268	-393	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.67x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 15 PA | 5/15 | HR 2 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/97 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 25/46 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 61/97 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-341) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -341 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -341

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -341 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+236	-341	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/114 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/58 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 83/114 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-255) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+180	-255	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Torrens Under 0.5 (-450) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-307) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -307

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+214	-307	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/113 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 86/113 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-285) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -285 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -285 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+200	-285	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-506) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -506

Selected market: Over 21.6% / Under 78.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+336	-506	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-326) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -326 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -326

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -326 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+226	-326	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/107 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 73/107 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 (-265) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+188	-265	-
DK	0.5	+187	-265	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Rogers Under 0.5 (-241) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -241

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+171	-241	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-287) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -287

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+201	-287	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/103 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 32/53 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 68/103 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-237) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+168	-237	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-361) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -361

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+248	-361	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-362) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -362

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+249	-362	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-265) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -265 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+193	-275	-
DK	0.5	+187	-265	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-336) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -336

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+233	-336	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-340) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+235	-340	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-166) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -166

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -166 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	-
DK	0.5	+120	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-680) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -680 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -680

Selected market: Over 17.7% / Under 82.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -680 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+434	-680	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+360	-800	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-533) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -533 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -533

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -533 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+352	-533	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-323) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -323 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -323

Selected market: Over 28.8% / Under 71.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -323 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+224	-323	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-387) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -387

Selected market: Over 25.7% / Under 74.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+264	-387	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-271) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -271 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -271

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -271 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+191	-271	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 58/81 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/42 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 32/39 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 58/81 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-340) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+235	-340	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/108 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 71/108 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-220) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -220

Selected market: Over 36.1% / Under 63.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+157	-220	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 72/115 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 72/115 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 (+145) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	-
DK	0.5	+145	-202	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 34/84 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/43 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 15/41 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 34/84 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.56

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pedro Ramirez Over 0.5 (+229) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +229 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +229

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +229 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+229	-330	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 34/84 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/43 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 15/41 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 34/84 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.56

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 28.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy (2002) Under 0.5 (-640) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -640

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+411	-640	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (-105) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 0.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-105	-131	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-105	-135	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/112 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 25/57 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 50/112 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.62

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-285) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+200	-285	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 76/111 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-257) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -257

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+181	-257	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/106 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 74/106 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-482) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -482 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -482

Selected market: Over 22.3% / Under 77.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -482 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+321	-482	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-549) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -549

Selected market: Over 20.4% / Under 79.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+361	-549	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-427) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -427

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+289	-427	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-451) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -451 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -451

Selected market: Over 23.3% / Under 76.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -451 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+303	-451	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-305) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -305

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -290; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+213	-305	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-466) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -466 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -466

Selected market: Over 22.8% / Under 77.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -466 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+312	-466	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-281) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -281

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	-
DK	0.5	+197	-281	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronny Simon Under 0.5 (-397) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -397

Selected market: Over 25.3% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+270	-397	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-372) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -372

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+255	-372	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Flores Under 0.5 (-341) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -341

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+236	-341	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-323) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -323 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -323

Selected market: Over 28.7% / Under 71.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -323 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+225	-323	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/113 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 86/113 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-310) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.5% / Under 70.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -310 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+216	-310	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — César Prieto Under 0.5 (-378) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -378 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -378

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -378 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+259	-378	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-383) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -383 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -383

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -383 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+262	-383	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-528) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -528

Selected market: Over 21.0% / Under 79.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+348	-528	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 72/109 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-563) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -563 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -563

Selected market: Over 20.1% / Under 79.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -563 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+368	-563	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 72/109 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-385) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -385

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+263	-385	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 72/109 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-249) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -249 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -249 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+188	-265	-
DK	0.5	+176	-249	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-168) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -168 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	-
DK	0.5	+121	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-263) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -263 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -263 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+193	-275	-
DK	0.5	+186	-263	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-281) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -281

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+197	-281	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-227) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -227 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -227

Selected market: Over 35.5% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -227 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+162	-227	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-315) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -315

Selected market: Over 29.2% / Under 70.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+219	-315	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-277) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -277

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+195	-277	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 74/108 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-446) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -446 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -446

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -446 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+300	-446	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/110 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/110 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Starling Marte Under 0.5 (-420) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -420 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -420

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -420 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+285	-420	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/110 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/110 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-247) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+175	-247	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/110 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/110 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-240) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+171	-240	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+170	-240	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-257) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -257

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+182	-257	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-324) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -324

Selected market: Over 28.7% / Under 71.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 0.5 -300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+225	-324	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-426) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -426 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -426

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -426 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+288	-426	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-445	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-391) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -391

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+267	-391	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-179) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+129	-179	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-400) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-256) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -256

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+181	-256	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-368) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+253	-368	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-359) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -359

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+247	-359	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Over 0.5 (+138) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	-
DK	0.5	+138	-192	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/106 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/53 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 16/53 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 43/106 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.53

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-336) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -336

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+233	-336	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-310) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.5% / Under 70.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+216	-310	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-478) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -478 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -478

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -478 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+319	-478	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-258) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -258 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -258

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -258 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+182	-258	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-405) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -405 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -405

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -405 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+275	-405	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-411) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -411 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -411

Selected market: Over 24.7% / Under 75.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -411 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+279	-411	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-540) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -540 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -540

Selected market: Over 20.6% / Under 79.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -540 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+356	-540	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Franklin Under 0.5 (-525) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-198) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -198

Selected market: Over 38.3% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+143	-193	-
DK	0.5	+142	-198	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyrone Taylor Under 0.5 (-450) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (+129) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	-
DK	0.5	+129	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 11 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 27.3% | OPS .489
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/108 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/54 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 23/54 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 44/108 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.51

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-373) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -373 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -373

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -373 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+256	-373	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-286) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -286 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -286

Selected market: Over 31.0% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -286 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+200	-286	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-387) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -387

Selected market: Over 25.7% / Under 74.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+264	-387	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-223) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -223 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -223

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -223 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+159	-223	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-155) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+117	-157	-
DK	0.5	+112	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-349) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -349 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -349

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -349 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+241	-349	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-257) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -257

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+182	-257	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-552) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -552 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -552

Selected market: Over 20.4% / Under 79.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -552 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Heineman Under 0.5 (-359) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -359

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+247	-359	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Oswald Peraza Under 0.5 (-371) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -371 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -371

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -371 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+254	-371	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-315) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -315

Selected market: Over 29.2% / Under 70.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	-
DK	0.5	+219	-315	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/111 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 32/55 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 69/111 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-278) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -278

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+195	-278	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.583 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/115 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 33/53 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 70/115 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-286) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -286

Selected market: Over 31.0% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+200	-286	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/114 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 80/114 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-247) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+175	-247	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 72/108 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-394) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -394

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+268	-394	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 72/108 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-230) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+163	-230	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/114 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/60 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 71/114 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leo Jimenez Under 0.5 (-155) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+112	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-174) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -174

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	-
DK	0.5	+126	-174	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-221) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -221

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+158	-221	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-223) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -223

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+159	-223	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-272) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -272

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+191	-272	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Smith Under 0.5 (-400) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/114 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 84/114 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-203) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -203

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+145	-203	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/114 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 84/114 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-311) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -311

Selected market: Over 29.5% / Under 70.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+216	-311	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/53 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 78/109 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-243) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+172	-243	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-255) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -255 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+188	-265	-
DK	0.5	+180	-255	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 73/107 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 73/107 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-316) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -316

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+220	-316	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-286) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -286

Selected market: Over 31.0% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+200	-286	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-258) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -258 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -258

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -258 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+182	-258	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-374) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -374

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+257	-374	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-267) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -267 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -267

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -267 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+188	-267	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-191) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -191

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+137	-191	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/104 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 29/49 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 65/104 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-198) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -198

Selected market: Over 38.3% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+142	-198	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/95 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/50 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 56/95 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-407) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -407

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+277	-407	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 28.6% | OPS 1.171 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/114 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/59 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 70/114 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-407) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -407

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+277	-407	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Payton Tolle: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/103 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/48 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 64/103 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Riley Greene Over 0.5 (+122) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +122

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+126	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+122	-169	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/113 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/57 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 24/56 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 48/113 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-242) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -242

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+172	-242	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/95 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 30/44 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 68/95 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-369) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -369 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -369

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -369 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+253	-369	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/102 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/47 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 72/102 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-209) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -209 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -209

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -209 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+150	-209	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/107 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 73/107 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-246) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.9% / Under 66.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+174	-246	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/115 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/59 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 73/115 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (+115) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+114	-152	-
DK	0.5	+115	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/111 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/55 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 21/56 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 47/111 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.50

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-202) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -202

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	-
DK	0.5	+144	-202	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/112 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 71/112 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (+158) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +158

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+158	-222	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.76
Base projection 0.76 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/114 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.76
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/62 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.77 | Away Batter Walks: 28/52 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.75 | Day Batter Walks: 63/114 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-168) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+121	-162	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+121	-168	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/113 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/59 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 66/113 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 (+143) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	-
DK	0.5	+143	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 37 PA | 10/32 | HR 2 | K% 21.6% | BB% 13.5% | OPS 1.062
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 37 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 40/112 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/56 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 24/56 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 40/112 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Harry Ford Under 0.5 (-303) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -303

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+212	-303	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/87 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/42 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 31/45 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 52/87 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (+151) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +151

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	-
DK	0.5	+151	-212	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/117 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 22/60 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 53/117 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase DeLauter Over 0.5 (+131) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+136	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+131	-183	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 38/98 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/54 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 19/44 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 38/98 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-207) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -207 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -207

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -207 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	-
DK	0.5	+148	-207	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/107 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 73/107 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 (+109) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+108	-145	-
DK	0.5	+109	-151	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 45/116 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/57 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 28/59 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 45/116 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-173) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -173

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	-
DK	0.5	+125	-173	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 74/114 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 74/114 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy Over 0.5 (+101) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 +101; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+101	-134	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+101	-140	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 49 PA | 17/41 | HR 1 | K% 12.2% | BB% 16.3% | OPS 1.096
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 49 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/105 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 15/52 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 26/53 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 41/105 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.45

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-198) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -198

Selected market: Over 38.3% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+142	-198	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 75/112 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-433) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -433 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -433

Selected market: Over 23.9% / Under 76.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -433 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+292	-433	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-198) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -198

Selected market: Over 38.3% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+143	-193	-
DK	0.5	+142	-198	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-386) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -386 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -386

Selected market: Over 25.7% / Under 74.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -386 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+264	-386	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Angel Genao Under 0.5 (-317) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -317 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -317

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -317 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+221	-317	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-266) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -266 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -266

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -266 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+188	-266	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/92 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/50 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 26/42 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 57/92 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-200) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 0.5 -200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+153	-209	-
DK	0.5	+143	-200	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/110 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 76/110 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-208) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -208

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+148	-208	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/116 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/59 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 72/116 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-159) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -159

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+115	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/91 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/43 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 31/48 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 59/91 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 (+146) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +146

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+130	-180	-
DK	0.5	+146	-204	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/112 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/55 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 23/57 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 47/112 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 (+120) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+126	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+120	-166	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/109 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/57 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 21/52 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 41/109 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-188) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -188 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -188

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -188 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+135	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/114 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 34/57 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 75/114 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-131) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-107	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-105	-131	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-110	-130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/99 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/51 under 0.5 (49%), avg 0.69 | Away Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 59/99 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (+153) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +153 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +153

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +153 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+153	-209	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+153	-214	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/110 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 14/52 over 0.5 (27%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 28/58 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 42/110 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Over 0.5 (+108) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+108	-150	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 43/109 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/55 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 27/54 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 43/109 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-156) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+112	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/112 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/57 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 31/55 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 57/112 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (+109) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+112	-150	-
DK	0.5	+109	-151	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/109 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/58 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 22/51 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 49/109 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 (+175) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +175

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+175	-247	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .722
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 49/113 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 24/58 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 49/113 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-155) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/102 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 26/50 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 60/102 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (+126) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+126	-174	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/113 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/55 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 22/58 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 43/113 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Over 0.5 (+206) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +250 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +206

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+206	-295	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 40/112 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/55 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 24/57 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 40/112 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 29.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-181) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -181 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -181

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -181 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+130	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 74/114 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 74/114 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Over 0.5 (+180) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +200 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	-
DK	0.5	+180	-255	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.49x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 22 PA | 10/17 | HR 2 | K% 4.5% | BB% 13.6% | OPS 1.858
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 1/20 (5%) | Season 26/91 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/47 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 9/44 over 0.5 (20%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 26/91 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (+120) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+125	-170	-
DK	0.5	+120	-166	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 53/115 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 26/56 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.66 | Day Batter Walks: 53/115 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 223 play(s) (A 10 | B 47 | C 166)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-154) diff 91.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+115	-
DK	1.5	-154	+116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 91.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.45
Base projection 2.45 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.489 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/111 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 36/52 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 68/111 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.45

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.4, heavy juice -154 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-154) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-159) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-157	+117	Recommended
DK	1.5	-159	+119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.326, xSLG 0.430 (77 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 64/114 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 33/54 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.67 | Day Batter HRR: 64/114 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ HRR trust gate: L10 HRR over-rate 20%, raw gap 1.2, heavy juice -159 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-159) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-138) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.229, xSLG 0.305 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/95 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/50 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.48 | Away Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 57/95 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-156) diff 51.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	-
DK	1.5	-156	+117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.318 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/114 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 58/114 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-149) diff 50.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-149	+112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.440 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/113 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.53 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 56/113 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-131) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.301, xSLG 0.370 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/110 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.32 | Away Batter HRR: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 49/110 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-138) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.238, xSLG 0.266 (47 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/116 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 60/116 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (-115) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-115	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.453, xSLG 0.613 (22 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/86 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/45 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 22/41 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 41/86 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (-122) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.272, xSLG 0.355 (79 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/115 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 55/115 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-138) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 49/111 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 49/111 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-126) diff 64.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.210, xSLG 0.260 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/108 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 57/108 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 64.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 64.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-132) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-132	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.32x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.379, xSLG 0.517 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/91 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 41/91 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 64.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 64.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-127) diff 61.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-127	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.298 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/100 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.71 | Away Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 51/100 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-126) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-126	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.383 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/117 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/57 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 66/117 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-133) diff 58.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.336 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/98 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 50/98 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-145) diff 53.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-154	+115	-
DK	1.5	-145	+109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 54/109 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-138) diff 53.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.274, xSLG 0.342 (57 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 61/116 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 61/116 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (-120) diff 52.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-120	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.403 (46 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/111 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 36/57 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 63/111 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-109) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-109	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.232, xSLG 0.247 (25 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/110 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 54/110 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-136) diff 46.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-136	+102	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.383, xSLG 0.398 (20 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/84 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/43 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 40/84 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Pedro Ramirez Over 1.5 (-117) diff 46.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.383, xSLG 0.398 (20 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/84 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/43 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 40/84 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-139) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-139	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.391 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/114 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 54/114 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-114) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.275, xSLG 0.296 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/115 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 59/115 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-112) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.410, xSLG 0.624 (35 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 54/109 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (-127) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-127	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.261, xSLG 0.283 (49 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Noah Schultz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/114 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 51/114 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-114) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-114	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.448 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/111 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/58 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 59/111 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-108) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-108	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.367 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/92 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/50 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.58 | Away Batter HRR: 23/42 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 55/92 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (-110) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.336 (25 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/111 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 50/111 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-106) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.486 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/115 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.50 | Day Batter HRR: 67/115 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-105) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.167, xSLG 0.197 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/96 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 46/96 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Hector Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+107) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+107	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.415, xSLG 0.593 (43 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/105 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 60/105 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (-125) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.244, xSLG 0.280 (26 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/95 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 24/44 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 50/95 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Abimelec Ortiz Over 1.5 (-106) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brady House Over 1.5 (+102) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-112) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.250, xSLG 0.344 (91 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/115 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/59 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 63/115 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (-108) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (-117) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (-124) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.247, xSLG 0.249 (32 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/107 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.18 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 48/107 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (-146) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-152	+115	-
DK	1.5	-146	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-170	+120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (-113) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-113	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Young Over 1.5 (+123) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/116 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 56/116 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jesus Sanchez Under 1.5 (-173) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -173 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (-127) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-127	-105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (-122) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-108) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (-119) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+108) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.248, xSLG 0.301 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/110 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 58/110 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (-105) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (-138) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (-106) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-106	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (-111) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-107	-125	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.175, xSLG 0.200 (16 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 41/95 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/41 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 41/95 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-129) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-102	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (-145) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-145	+109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (-103) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (-101) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (+110) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.339, xSLG 0.336 (11 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .545
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 44/85 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 15/37 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 44/85 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (-144) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-144	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-151) diff 64.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-151	+114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.40
Base projection 2.40 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.376 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/81 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/42 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 26/39 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 48/81 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 64.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 64.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-127) diff 62.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-127	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.332, xSLG 0.455 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/109 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.51 | Day Batter HRR: 64/109 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 62.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 62.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (-135) diff 58.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-135	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.419, xSLG 0.614 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 49 PA | 17/41 | HR 1 | K% 12.2% | BB% 16.3% | OPS 1.096
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 49 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/105 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 48/105 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-105) diff 58.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.224, xSLG 0.276 (42 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/105 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 52/105 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-114) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.444, xSLG 0.642 (18 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 28.6% | OPS 1.171 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/114 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/59 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 30/55 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 63/114 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+105) diff 50.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.336 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/102 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.42 | Day Batter HRR: 49/102 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-155) diff 49.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.368, xSLG 0.581 (50 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/105 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 54/105 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-122) diff 48.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.287 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 11 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 27.3% | OPS .489
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 54/108 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+112) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.440, xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/109 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 63/109 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.31

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-122) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.440, xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/109 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 63/109 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.31

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-155) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-155	+117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.337 (49 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: JT Brubaker contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/111 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 33/56 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 58/111 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-125) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.369, xSLG 0.499 (53 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: JT Brubaker contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/113 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 56/113 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-140) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-140	+105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.256, xSLG 0.353 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/106 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/58 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 58/106 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (-106) diff 44.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.353 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 57/112 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 57/112 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-101) diff 42.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.417, xSLG 0.594 (67 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/112 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 59/112 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 (+101) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.358, xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/110 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.50 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 58/110 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.11

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Starling Marte Over 1.5 (+126) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.358, xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/110 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.50 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 58/110 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.11

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-102) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.358, xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/110 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.50 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 58/110 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.11

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+104) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.445, xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .722
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/113 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 57/113 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (-105) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.218, xSLG 0.232 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 22 PA | 10/17 | HR 2 | K% 4.5% | BB% 13.6% | OPS 1.858
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 46/91 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 46/91 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+111) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.283, xSLG 0.391 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/111 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/56 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter HRR: 30/55 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 64/111 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+106) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.293 (38 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 52/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (+115) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.205, xSLG 0.252 (65 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 54/97 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/49 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 54/97 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-105) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	Recommended
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.313 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.583 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/115 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 61/115 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-101) diff 37.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.192, xSLG 0.212 (40 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/112 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 32/57 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 57/112 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-146) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-146	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 15 PA | 5/15 | HR 2 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/97 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 26/46 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 55/97 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.11

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-125) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.286, xSLG 0.375 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/114 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 64/114 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.07

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Griffin Conine Over 1.5 (+106) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+111) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.393, xSLG 0.575 (23 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/110 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 52/110 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.92

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (+124) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.214, xSLG 0.232 (20 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 30/53 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 53/103 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-102) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.380 (67 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/113 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.07 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 54/113 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Owen Caissie Over 1.5 (+115) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+108) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.377 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/108 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 56/108 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+105) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.394 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 13 PA | 7/13 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.154
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/114 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 55/114 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+105) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.323 (32 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/106 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 54/106 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.03

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (+109) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.426, xSLG 0.676 (36 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/111 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 34/57 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 61/111 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leo Jimenez Over 1.5 (+115) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (-104) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.235, xSLG 0.314 (51 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/113 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 54/113 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-104) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.415, xSLG 0.593 (43 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/105 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 60/105 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-141) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-141	+106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.313 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/105 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 36/60 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 57/105 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+100) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.501 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/109 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 56/109 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 2 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-107) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.167, xSLG 0.215 (23 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .310 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/107 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 52/107 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.16

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 2 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-115) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.299, xSLG 0.414 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/115 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 60/115 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Over 1.5 (+100) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.449 (33 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/107 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 48/107 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (-103) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.300 (38 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/109 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 50/109 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (+112) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+112	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.377, xSLG 0.478 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 48/104 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 48/104 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (+100) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.358, xSLG 0.479 (22 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/108 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 50/108 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (+116) diff 23.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.304, xSLG 0.297 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/113 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.13 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 54/113 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joe Mack Over 1.5 (+117) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (-121) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.318 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 54/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+107) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+107	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.361, xSLG 0.573 (52 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/101 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 45/101 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 (+100) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.336, xSLG 0.458 (59 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: JT Brubaker contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/114 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 55/114 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (-113) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (-145) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-145	+109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.328 (78 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/113 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 58/113 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-109) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.390 (20 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/107 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 47/107 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-142) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.302, xSLG 0.364 (67 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/114 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 54/114 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+116) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.380, xSLG 0.498 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Payton Tolle: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 54/103 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 (+111) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	2.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	2.5	+105	-139	-
DK	2.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.96 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.41
Base projection 2.41 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.392, xSLG 0.476 (53 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/49 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 30/56 over 2.5 (54%), avg 2.71 | Day Batter HRR: 50/105 over 2.5 (48%), avg 2.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 (-117) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-117	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.298 (69 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/111 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 49/111 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+123) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.261, xSLG 0.288 (65 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/109 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter HRR: 51/109 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 1.5 (-123) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (-104) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (-143) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-143	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.272, xSLG 0.308 (64 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 56/115 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 56/115 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (-101) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.243, xSLG 0.288 (57 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/111 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 60/111 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Under 2.5 (-154) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	2.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	2.5	+115	-154	-
DK	2.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.14 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.465 (78 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/57 under 2.5 (68%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 36/55 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 75/112 under 2.5 (67%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Young Over 1.5 (+120) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/116 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 56/116 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (+106) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/116 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 56/116 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (-131) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.261, xSLG 0.356 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/107 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 49/107 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Under 2.5 (-157) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	2.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	2.5	+116	-154	-
DK	2.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.15 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.302, xSLG 0.416 (71 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/99 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/51 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 28/48 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 58/99 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Under 1.5 (-150) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Under 1.5 (-162) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (-111) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.499 (51 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 50/112 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 50/112 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Tena Over 1.5 (+120) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jimmy Crooks Over 1.5 (+108) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (+113) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-135	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.295, xSLG 0.273 (59 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/112 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 50/112 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 2.5 (-157) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	2.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	2.5	+122	-162	-
DK	2.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.19 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.250, xSLG 0.354 (52 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 69/110 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/57 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 34/53 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 69/110 under 2.5 (63%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lane Thomas Under 1.5 (-180) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Troy Johnston Over 1.5 (+130) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.266, xSLG 0.296 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 48/100 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 48/100 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.66

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (+105) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.246, xSLG 0.289 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/110 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/55 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 56/110 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.81

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Under 1.5 (-137) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.368, xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/87 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/42 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 24/45 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 54/87 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (-113) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ronny Simon Over 1.5 (+114) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Under 1.5 (-165) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.244, xSLG 0.281 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/114 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/58 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 33/56 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 67/114 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (+128) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.293, xSLG 0.323 (18 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 53/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Over 1.5 (-111) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.141, xSLG 0.141 (13 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 44/106 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter HRR: 44/106 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-149) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.230, xSLG 0.222 (20 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/104 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/51 under 1.5 (47%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter HRR: 61/104 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (-107) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (+103) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joey Ortiz Over 1.5 (+112) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	Recommended
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.04x
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rhys Hoskins Over 1.5 (+122) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+130	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jakob Marsee Over 1.5 (+111) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-150	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.200, xSLG 0.229 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 40/111 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/55 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter HRR: 40/111 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.39

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Church Over 1.5 (+103) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+108) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.184, xSLG 0.239 (79 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 50/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Triolo Over 1.5 (+122) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (+116) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.365 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/108 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 49/108 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 2.5 (-146) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	2.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+109	-145	-
DK	2.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.34 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.422, xSLG 0.598 (63 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/116 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/59 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 35/57 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 69/116 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Under 1.5 (-173) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Harry Ford Under 1.5 (-159) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-175	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.368, xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/87 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/42 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 24/45 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 54/87 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-132) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-132	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (-120) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-105) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-129) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (-113) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Under 1.5 (-162) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.330 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/114 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/59 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 67/114 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Under 2.5 (-167) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+130	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-155	+120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+130	-
DK	2.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.35 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/108 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/52 under 2.5 (50%), avg 2.46 | Away Batter HRR: 37/56 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 63/108 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Tolbert Under 1.5 (-173) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Enmanuel Valdez Over 1.5 (-120) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.02x
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-133) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.185, xSLG 0.169 (13 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 12 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .273
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 65/108 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/52 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter HRR: 65/108 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — César Prieto Over 1.5 (+126) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +126; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+126	-167	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Torres Over 1.5 (+123) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (-139) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-139	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyrone Taylor Over 1.5 (+105) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randal Grichuk Under 1.5 (-168) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+135	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Evan Carter Over 1.5 (+131) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+140	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+101) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (-103) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Lara Over 1.5 (+107) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (-125) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -118; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	Recommended
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Martin Over 1.5 (+122) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cooper Pratt Over 1.5 (+114) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (-113) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-113	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Osleivis Basabe Over 1.5 (+132) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drew Cavanaugh Over 1.5 (+121) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Clark Over 1.5 (+114) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+105) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach McKinstry Over 1.5 (+115) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Baez Over 1.5 (+104) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (-113) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drew Gilbert Over 1.5 (+136) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daniel Susac Over 1.5 (+110) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Under 1.5 (-135) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 1.5 (-165) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Matt McLain Under 1.5 (-168) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcus Semien Over 1.5 (+123) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.56
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.246, xSLG 0.257 (12 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 3 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 35/97 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/49 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 35/97 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+137) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+135	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+137	-182	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/113 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/58 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 59/113 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Moises Ballesteros Over 1.5 (+127) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-150	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 (+121) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.229, xSLG 0.237 (35 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/110 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 48/110 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Genao Over 1.5 (+136) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-122) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (-108) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (+125) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (+103) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Anthony Seigler Under 1.5 (-116) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Rogers Under 1.5 (-155) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Under 1.5 (-153) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (+102) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (+125) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (+128) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leody Taveras Over 1.5 (+120) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Under 1.5 (-166) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (+141) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+141	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.295, xSLG 0.304 (64 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter HRR: 30/52 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 53/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Lombard Jr. Under 1.5 (-180) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Oswald Peraza Over 1.5 (+122) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nasim Nunez Under 1.5 (-171) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.276 (65 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/108 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 32/56 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 65/108 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (-125) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brendan Donovan Over 1.5 (+124) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+124) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Heineman Under 1.5 (-171) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+129	-171	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (-105) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-105	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Under 1.5 (-103) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.95x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Polanco Under 1.5 (-164) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (-120) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.95x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-170) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.268, xSLG 0.434 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/106 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 71/106 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 1.5 (-159) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.168, xSLG 0.204 (11 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/107 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/50 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 62/107 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-150) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.260, xSLG 0.279 (14 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/108 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 under 1.5 (54%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 58/108 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Under 1.5 (-152) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 276 play(s) (A 1 | B 12 | C 248 | D 15)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Total Bases — Hector Rodriguez Over 0.5 (-190) diff 220.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-182	+138	-
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.593 (43 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/105 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/54 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 74/105 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.65

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Lowe Over 0.5 (-160) diff 291.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+119	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.96 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 291.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.260 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 38/53 over 0.5 (72%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 73/108 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.93

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 291% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 (-150) diff 218.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+105	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.549 (40 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/108 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 62/108 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.68

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 (-155) diff 218.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.549 (40 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/108 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 62/108 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.68

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 0.5 (-165) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 (-165) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Availability — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Jones Over 0.5 (-135) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+104	-
Caesars	0.5	-130	-102	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 (-190) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Lane Thomas Over 0.5 (-160) diff 167.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 167.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 167.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 167.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 167% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-108) diff 56.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-103	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.530 (58 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/113 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter TB: 50/113 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.07

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+103) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 53/108 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.81

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Brady House Over 1.5 (-200) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Under 1.5 (-185) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	Recommended
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.367 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/92 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/50 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 26/42 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 54/92 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nicky Lopez Over 0.5 (-135) diff 376.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 376.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.449 (85 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 85/112 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/56 over 0.5 (79%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 41/56 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 85/112 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.90

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 376% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (-165) diff 293.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 293.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 294% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Owen Caissie Over 0.5 (-135) diff 293.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	-
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	Recommended
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 293.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 294% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joe Mack Over 0.5 (-150) diff 293.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 293.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 294% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 (-120) diff 293.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-120	-108	-
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 293.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 294% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leo Jimenez Over 0.5 (-160) diff 293.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+121	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 293.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 294% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Noelvi Marte Over 0.5 (-165) diff 265.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 265.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/110 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/54 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 74/110 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.77

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 266% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Starling Marte Over 0.5 (+170) diff 265.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 265.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/110 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/54 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 74/110 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.77

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 266% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Tena Over 0.5 (-135) diff 262.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.81 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 262.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 263% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-125) diff 255.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 255.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/56 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 77/109 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.78

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 255% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Edouard Julien Over 0.5 (-120) diff 250.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	-
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 250.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 251% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 0.5 (-155) diff 243.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 243.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.293 (38 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/112 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/58 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 70/112 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.71

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 243% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Triolo Over 0.5 (-175) diff 242.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+126	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+128	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 242.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 242% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronny Simon Over 0.5 (+180) diff 242.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 242.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 242% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Over 0.5 (+170) diff 242.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-204	+155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 242.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 242% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 0.5 (-160) diff 236.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+130	-
Fanatics	0.5	-165	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 236.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.575 (23 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/110 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/52 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 36/58 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 67/110 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.55

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 236% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jimmy Crooks Over 0.5 (-175) diff 236.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 236.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 236% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 0.5 (-200) diff 236.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 236.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 236% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Torres Over 0.5 (-175) diff 236.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 236.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 236% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — César Prieto Over 0.5 (-150) diff 236.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 236.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 236% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rhys Hoskins Over 0.5 (-120) diff 230.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 230.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 230% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Genao Over 0.5 (-127) diff 230.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 230.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 230% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Hedges Over 0.5 (-115) diff 230.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-115	-112	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 230.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 230% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Over 0.5 (-150) diff 222.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-139	+107	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
Fanatics	0.5	-130	+100	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 0.5 (-120) diff 222.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-120	-108	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Kepler Over 0.5 (-125) diff 222.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Feduccia Over 0.5 (-140) diff 222.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-120) diff 222.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	-
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Amaya Over 0.5 (-135) diff 218.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 (-155) diff 217.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
Fanatics	0.5	-145	+110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Torrens Over 0.5 (+200) diff 217.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Evan Carter Over 0.5 (-150) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
Caesars	0.5	-141	+107	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 (-130) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Lara Over 0.5 (-165) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+124	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 50.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Martin Over 0.5 (-190) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-176	+132	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Caratini Over 0.5 (-150) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+109	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 0.5 (-175) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cooper Pratt Over 0.5 (-155) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+121	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joey Ortiz Over 0.5 (+200) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (-110) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-110	-118	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Kreidler Over 0.5 (-111) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.5% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Osleivis Basabe Over 0.5 (-175) diff 217.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+129	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (-150) diff 217.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Grant McCray Over 0.5 (-125) diff 217.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach McKinstry Over 0.5 (-185) diff 217.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Baez Over 0.5 (-200) diff 217.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -197 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -197 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-197	+145	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Gilbert Over 0.5 (-150) diff 217.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daniel Susac Over 0.5 (-190) diff 217.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 (+200) diff 217.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 31.6% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willi Castro Over 0.5 (-175) diff 216.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.252 (65 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 63/97 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/49 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 63/97 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.52

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Oswald Peraza Over 0.5 (-160) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+127	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Heineman Over 0.5 (-135) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 0.5 (-175) diff 213.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy (2002) Over 0.5 (-120) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Flores Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+109	-
Caesars	0.5	-137	+102	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (-160) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 (-165) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (-120) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-114	-114	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 (+105) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	0.5	+117	-157	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 38.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 (-125) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Wells Over 0.5 (+105) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+106	-137	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+101	-134	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Beavers Over 0.5 (-185) diff 211.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-182	+136	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leody Taveras Over 0.5 (-150) diff 211.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 (-160) diff 211.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+122	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 0.5 (+105) diff 211.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	+104	-135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 39.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colton Cowser Over 0.5 (-110) diff 211.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-110	-118	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 (+105) diff 211.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+109	-141	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+105	-139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 39.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Rogers Over 0.5 (-122) diff 210.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Anthony Seigler Over 0.5 (+160) diff 210.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 36.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brendan Donovan Over 0.5 (-155) diff 209.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+119	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 0.5 (-165) diff 209.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 0.5 (-135) diff 209.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-105) diff 209.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Emerson Over 0.5 (+100) diff 209.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+100	-135	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-102	-127	-
Caesars	0.5	-104	-129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Walls Over 0.5 (+110) diff 209.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+110	-150	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+117	-152	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 38.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Richie Palacios Over 0.5 (-105) diff 209.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +320; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	0.5	+103	-137	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-500	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 40.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 (-190) diff 206.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.391 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/56 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 37/55 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 76/111 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.61

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Over 0.5 (-175) diff 206.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.458 (59 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: JT Brubaker contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/114 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 63/114 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.45

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt McLain Over 0.5 (-130) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 0.5 (-135) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Massey Over 0.5 (-190) diff 202.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 0.5 (-190) diff 202.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Tolbert Over 0.5 (+200) diff 202.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-139	+107	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 (-190) diff 202.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/53 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 40/55 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 73/108 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.68

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randal Grichuk Over 0.5 (-165) diff 183.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 183.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 183.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 183.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 (-150) diff 183.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 183.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 183.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 183.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brenton Doyle Over 0.5 (-150) diff 183.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+109	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 183.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 183.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 183.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Over 0.5 (-165) diff 183.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+128	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 183.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.232 (20 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/103 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/50 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 36/53 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 66/103 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 183.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 183.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 (-150) diff 179.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.288 (65 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/53 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 68/109 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 179.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 180% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 0.5 (-175) diff 179.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-179	+137	-
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 179.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 180% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brian Serven Over 0.5 (+200) diff 179.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-120	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 179.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 180% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 0.5 (-200) diff 179.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -193 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -193 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-193	+142	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 179.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 180% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Over 0.5 (-175) diff 179.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+134	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.289 (39 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/55 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 31/55 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 73/110 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 179.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 179% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 (-135) diff 174.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+104	-
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-105	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 174.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/113 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 68/113 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 174.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 174.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 175% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 0.5 (-190) diff 173.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -189 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -189 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-189	+143	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-193	+143	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 173.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 82/113 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/58 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 40/55 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 82/113 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 173.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 173.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 173% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 0.5 (-160) diff 172.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 172.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.303 (60 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 36/57 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 67/111 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 172.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 172.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 172% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-160) diff 170.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 170.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/116 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/59 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 77/116 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 170.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 170.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 171% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-140) diff 170.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 170.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/116 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/59 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 77/116 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 170.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 170.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 171% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Over 0.5 (-200) diff 170.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 170.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/116 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/59 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 77/116 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 170.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 170.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 171% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sean Murphy Over 0.5 (-105) diff 167.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-103	-125	-
Caesars	0.5	-102	-132	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 167.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 167.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 167.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 167% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ha-Seong Kim Over 0.5 (-120) diff 167.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-115	-112	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 167.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 167.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 167.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 167% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Troy Johnston Over 0.5 (-160) diff 159.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+124	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 159.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.296 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 62/100 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/52 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 28/48 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 62/100 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 159.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 159.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 160% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (-155) diff 158.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 158.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.204 (11 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/107 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/50 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 64/107 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 158.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 158.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 158% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 0.5 (-175) diff 155.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 155.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.336 (11 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .545
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 56/85 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/48 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 25/37 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 56/85 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 155.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 155.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 155% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-165) diff 152.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+119	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 152.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.257 (12 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 3 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/97 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 50/97 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 152.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 152.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 153% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 0.5 (-200) diff 152.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -197 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -197 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-197	+144	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 152.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 152.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 152.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 152% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 0.5 (-200) diff 152.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -193 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -193 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-193	+143	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 152.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 152.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 152.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 152% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 152.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-114	-114	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 152.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 152.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 152.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 152% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (-165) diff 150.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+132	-
Caesars	0.5	-173	+130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 150.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.273 (59 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/112 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 35/57 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 65/112 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 150.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 150.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 150% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Over 0.5 (-175) diff 148.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+129	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 148.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 41/54 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 73/108 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 148.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 148.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Over 0.5 (-220) diff 147.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -220

Selected market: Over 64.6% / Under 35.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 64.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-220	+165	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-213	+162	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-213	+156	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.323 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 64.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/107 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/57 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 34/50 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 73/107 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 147.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 (-165) diff 145.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+121	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 145.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.434 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/106 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 30/51 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter TB: 55/106 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 145.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 145.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Smith Over 0.5 (-125) diff 145.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 145.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.330 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/114 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/59 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 58/114 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 145.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 145.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (-150) diff 138.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 138.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.00
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.229 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 30/56 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 55/111 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 138.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 138.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 0.5 (-200) diff 137.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-200	+149	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 137.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.301 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/110 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 39/54 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 75/110 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 137.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 137.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (-190) diff 124.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+142	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 124.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/87 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/42 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 47/87 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 124.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 124.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Harry Ford Over 0.5 (+190) diff 124.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 124.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/87 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/42 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 47/87 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 124.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 124.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Over 0.5 (-175) diff 115.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+128	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 115.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.304 (64 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/107 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 41/52 over 0.5 (79%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 71/107 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 115.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 115.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (-155) diff 111.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 111.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/114 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/58 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter TB: 60/114 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 111.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 111.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Over 0.5 (-185) diff 106.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 106.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.222 (20 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/104 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/51 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 28/53 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 61/104 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 106.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 106.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 80.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	-
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.343 (13 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 16 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 18.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .598
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/110 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/55 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 27/55 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter TB: 56/110 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 80.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 80.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (-135) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.86 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.83
Base projection 0.83 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.276 (65 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/108 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/52 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter TB: 33/56 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter TB: 55/108 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 72.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 72.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-113) diff 67.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-123	-104	-
Caesars	1.5	-128	-102	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.476 (53 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.07 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter TB: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 67.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 67.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (+102) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.846 (45 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.917 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/114 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 55/114 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 64.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 64.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+104) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.449 (85 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 55/112 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 55/112 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 58.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 58.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+110) diff 54.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.474 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 37 PA | 10/32 | HR 2 | K% 21.6% | BB% 13.5% | OPS 1.062
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 37 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 32/56 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter TB: 52/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 54.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 54.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+105) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-139	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.552 (40 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: JT Brubaker contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/106 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter TB: 47/106 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+103) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.489 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/111 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 51/111 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (+141) diff 43.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+141	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.276 (42 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 43/105 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 43/105 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.05

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+116) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.517 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 33/91 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/43 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 18/48 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 33/91 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.69

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (+117) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-140	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.31x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.614 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 49 PA | 17/41 | HR 1 | K% 12.2% | BB% 16.3% | OPS 1.096
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 49 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/105 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/52 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 40/105 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.64

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (+108) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.12
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.642 (18 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 28.6% | OPS 1.171 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/114 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 55/114 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+116) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.397 (80 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 47/114 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 21/59 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 47/114 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-119) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-111	-116	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.07
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.598 (63 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/116 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 56/116 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+101) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+101	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.430 (77 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/114 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter TB: 55/114 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+102) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.376 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 32/81 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/42 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 19/39 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 32/81 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+119) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.260 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/108 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 49/108 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.93

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+123) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.370 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 47/110 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.23 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 47/110 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.93

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+121) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+121	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.247 (25 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/110 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 29/62 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 49/110 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.04

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+127) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.624 (35 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/109 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 48/109 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+108) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.305 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/95 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 46/95 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.99

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+132) diff 25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.594 (67 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/112 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 47/112 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Under 1.5 (-184) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	-
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.200 (16 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 67/95 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/41 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 42/54 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 67/95 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-190) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
Caesars	1.5	+152	-209	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.08
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.141 (13 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 71/106 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 71/106 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+129) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.455 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/109 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 46/109 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+121) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.4% / Under 57.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+121	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.298 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/100 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 16/49 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 46/100 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-112) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-108	-120	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 15 PA | 5/15 | HR 2 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/97 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 19/46 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 46/97 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (3.9) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (+135) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 52/110 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 52/110 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+139) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Abimelec Ortiz Over 1.5 (+142) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+150	-200	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+127) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.486 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/115 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter TB: 61/115 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.13

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+122) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.336 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/98 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 45/98 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.64

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+121) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+121	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.499 (53 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: JT Brubaker contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/113 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 53/113 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+119) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.613 (22 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 32/86 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/45 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 14/41 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 32/86 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.66

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-107) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-108	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-107	-123	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.354 (52 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 54/110 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 54/110 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.84

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Under 1.5 (-210) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -210

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -210 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
Caesars	1.5	+155	-213	-
DK	1.5	+156	-210	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.288 (57 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/111 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/54 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 63/111 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-176) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.169 (13 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 12 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .273
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 70/108 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 70/108 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+145) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/109 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 50/109 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (+124) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/109 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 50/109 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Under 1.5 (-187) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/107 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 73/107 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+132) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.215 (23 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .310 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/107 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter TB: 42/107 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.93

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (3.9) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-118) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-102	-127	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.465 (78 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/112 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 43/112 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (+125) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+138) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (+126) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 40/116 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 18/59 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 40/116 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.43

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dansby Swanson Under 1.5 (-182) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	Recommended
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.298 (69 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 36/54 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 76/111 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-103) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.318 (31 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/114 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 45/114 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.83

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+137) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.353 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/112 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 43/112 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.63

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+138) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.232 (17 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 22 PA | 10/17 | HR 2 | K% 4.5% | BB% 13.6% | OPS 1.858
BVP production adjustment: 1.13x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 34/91 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/47 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 16/44 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 34/91 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+149) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +149

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.336 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 41/102 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/52 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 41/102 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-197) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -197

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.249 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 69/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 69/107 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-179) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -179 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -179 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 75/111 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+118) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+132) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+117) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.440 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/113 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 42/113 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.65

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+151) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +151

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+139	-190	-
DK	1.5	+151	-203	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.448 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 44/111 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 44/111 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.65

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+119) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.414 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/115 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 48/115 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+115) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.383 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/117 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 22/60 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 45/117 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-107) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-107	-123	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.416 (71 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 43/99 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 43/99 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+121) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.266 (47 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/116 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 48/116 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+131) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .722
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/113 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 44/113 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.75

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+130) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 13 PA | 7/13 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.154
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/114 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/62 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 41/114 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+140) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+143	-193	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.212 (40 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 43/112 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 43/112 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.69

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+130) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.573 (52 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/101 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 40/101 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Under 1.5 (-150) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.356 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/107 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/52 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 75/107 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-156) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	Recommended
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.364 (67 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 73/114 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 73/114 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Under 1.5 (-154) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.308 (64 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/115 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/59 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 74/115 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+130) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.355 (79 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/115 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 42/115 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.57

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 1.5 (-194) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -189 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -189 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+106) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.337 (49 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: JT Brubaker contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/111 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 45/111 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+125) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/109 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 41/109 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.50

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (+135) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+128) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.313 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.583 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/115 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/62 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 46/115 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (+127) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/114 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 46/114 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (3.9) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Under 1.5 (-146) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.328 (78 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/113 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 29/54 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 71/113 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Under 1.5 (-182) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.344 (91 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/115 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/59 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 67/115 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (-200) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+127) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+142) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+124) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+124	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+139) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+140) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.593 (43 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/105 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 39/105 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.65

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Under 1.5 (-183) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	Recommended
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-184) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (+115) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.283 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Noah Schultz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 38/114 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/60 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 38/114 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.49

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (+103) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.398 (20 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 31/84 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/43 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 15/41 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 31/84 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.44

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pedro Ramirez Over 1.5 (+142) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.398 (20 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 31/84 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/43 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 15/41 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 31/84 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.44

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+130) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (67 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/113 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 45/113 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Under 1.5 (-210) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -210

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 0.5 +126; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+126	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.478 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/104 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 66/104 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+120) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+134) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.403 (46 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/111 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 51/111 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.51

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+122) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+109) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+109	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+132) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+141) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+141	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+150) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+150	-201	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+147) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+142) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+138	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	-
DK	1.5	+142	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+145) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+136) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+129) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Clark Over 1.5 (+145) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+141) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+141	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.336 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/111 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 39/111 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.55

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (+142) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+157) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +157

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	-
DK	1.5	+157	-211	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+125) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.197 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 35/96 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/48 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 35/96 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.59

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+135) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.314 (51 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/113 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 41/113 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (+113) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+113	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.390 (20 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/107 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 42/107 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.62

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 1.5 (+128) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.353 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/106 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 46/106 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 1.5 (-190) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+128) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 1.5 (+143) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+143	-192	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+131) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Under 1.5 (-175) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.280 (26 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/95 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 26/44 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 55/95 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+105) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.313 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/105 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.10 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/45 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 45/105 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (+145) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.3% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+145	-193	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (+119) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+125) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+119) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (+143) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.287 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 11 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 27.3% | OPS .489
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 32/108 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/54 over 1.5 (24%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 19/54 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 32/108 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (+123) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/114 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/59 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 39/114 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.39

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+140) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.323 (32 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/106 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 42/106 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (+138) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+135) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.498 (38 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Payton Tolle: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/103 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 45/103 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.66

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-165) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.479 (22 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/108 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/52 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 68/108 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-166) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	Recommended
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.296 (15 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/115 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 76/115 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (+133) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.300 (38 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/109 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 43/109 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 0.5 (-160) diff 199.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.676 (36 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/111 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 72/111 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 199% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 (-160) diff 184.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 184.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.297 (22 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/113 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/58 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 68/113 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 184.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (-160) diff 184.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +149; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 184.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.499 (51 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/112 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 62/112 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 184.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Edgar Quero Over 0.5 (-155) diff 183.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+104	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 183.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 183.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Luisangel Acuna Over 0.5 (-115) diff 183.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	-
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 183.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 183.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Willy Adames Over 0.5 (-190) diff 183.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 183.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.239 (79 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/110 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 65/110 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 183.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 (-135) diff 179.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+104	-
Caesars	0.5	-134	+101	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 180% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Ornelas Over 0.5 (-120) diff 179.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-115	-112	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 180% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 (-150) diff 147.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.252 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/102 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/55 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 58/102 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Over 0.5 (-150) diff 145.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-150	+112	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 145.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.330 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/114 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/59 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 58/114 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 145.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 (-105) diff 133.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	-
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 133.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.492 (12 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/99 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/50 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 26/49 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 54/99 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 133.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 (-130) diff 132.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 132.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.293 (59 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/51 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 53/107 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 132.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-115) diff 123.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 123.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.271 (34 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/114 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/62 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 35/52 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 72/114 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 123.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (-145) diff 118.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+109	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 118.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.237 (35 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/110 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/52 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 34/58 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 61/110 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 118.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Brett Baty Over 0.5 (-135) diff 95.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.98 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 95.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.02
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.178 (23 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/105 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/54 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 25/51 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter TB: 55/105 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 95.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

▸ K Prop — 24 play(s) (B 10 | C 14)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 (-156) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 5.93 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	-
DK	5.5	-156	+122	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-158	+124	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	6.5	+115	-149	-
BetRivers	6.5	+114	-152	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 44.5% vs 17% min; cushion +2.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.5% / under 42.5%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK LOWER delta -0.50
Zack Wheeler: K/9 12.3, proj 7.9K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.6% | put-away% 23.2% | xwOBA 0.251 | top pitch: Split-Finger (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: John Tumpane — 9.0 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.03x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 93 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 1.1% | AVG .267 | OPS .646
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 93 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 18.7%, L7 19.9%, season 19.5%, BVP 20.4%/93 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.80 | Season Avg 7.00
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
K% trend: support +12.9 ppts (recent 44.2% vs season 31.3%, proj adj +6.5%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cade Cavalli Over 5.5 (-148) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -148

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 6 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-165	+125	-
BetRivers	5.5	-167	+125	-
DK	5.5	-148	+116	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	6.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+115	-150	-
FanDuel	6.5	+120	-154	-
Fanatics	6.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 36.7% vs 17% min; cushion +2.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.3% / under 43.7%); own-line consensus 2/7 OVER (7 books); DK LOWER delta -0.57
Cade Cavalli: K/9 9.3, proj 7.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.3% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Laz Diaz — 9.5 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.06x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Curveball: 35.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cade Cavalli: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 23.5%, L7 28.7%, season 25.3%, top-6 22.6% (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.6% (4/6); 3/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/24 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.54
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (8 books) | books against us 29% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.7% (8 books) | books against us 29% (8 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Phillips Over 3.5 (-163) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -163

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/7 UNDER | avg line 3.88 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-160	+120	Recommended
BetRivers	3.5	-162	+120	-
DK	3.5	-163	+127	Selected
Fanatics	3.5	-165	+125	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+300	-550	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+120	-156	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
FanDuel	4.5	+128	-164	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 32.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.13K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.5% / under 41.5%); own-line consensus 3/7 OVER (7 books); DK LOWER delta -0.43
Tyler Phillips: K/9 6.5, proj 4.6K over 4.5 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.6% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.334 | top pitch: Curveball (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Jonathan Parra — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Curveball: 38.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tyler Phillips: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 26.5%, L7 28.2%, season 25.2% (adj 1.10x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 6/28 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (8 books) | split consensus 43% (8 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.6% (8 books) | split consensus 43% (8 books) — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Feltner Over 3.5 (+114) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +114

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 3.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+260	-450	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	3.5	+113	-147	-
BetRivers	3.5	+116	-155	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	+110	-145	-
DK	3.5	+114	-146	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+112	-142	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 30.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Ryan Feltner: K/9 7.4, proj 4.6K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.360 | top pitch: Changeup (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Jansen Visconti — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Changeup: 29.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 16% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .158 | OPS .474
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 19.7%, L7 22.6%, season 20.5%, top-6 18.7%, BVP 26.3%/19 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.7% (5/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/16 (44%) | Season 7/16 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.56
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.3% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Drohan Over 5.5 (+111) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	+107	-139	-
BetRivers	5.5	+108	-143	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	-
DK	5.5	+111	-141	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+106	-136	-
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 21.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.8% / under 55.2%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.29
Shane Drohan: K/9 9.1, proj 6.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.7% | put-away% 21.3% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Slider (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Slider: 35.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 21.3%, L7 19.5%, season 21.3% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/22 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 4.05
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.55 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.7% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Keider Montero Over 3.5 (-151) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-141	+108	-
BetRivers	3.5	-157	+118	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-151	+118	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-140	+110	-
Fanatics	3.5	-150	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 14.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.50K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.7% / under 43.3%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Keider Montero: K/9 7.2, proj 4.0K over 5.2 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.8% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Slider (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Slider: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.9%, L7 19.2%, season 20.9% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/24 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.38
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
K% trend: support +5.4 ppts (recent 22.8% vs season 17.4%, proj adj +2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Payton Tolle Over 6.5 (-140) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 6.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 6.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	6.5	-135	+105	-
BetRivers	6.5	-118	-113	Recommended
Bovada Direct	6.5	-125	-105	-
DK	6.5	-140	+110	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-122	-104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.2K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 11.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.74K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.1% / under 44.9%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Payton Tolle: K/9 10.8, proj 7.2K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.8% | put-away% 22.3% | xwOBA 0.269 | top pitch: Cutter (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Manny Gonzalez — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Payton Tolle: 22 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .610
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 29.4%, L7 20.8%, season 22.7%, BVP 27.3%/22 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.11
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5
K% trend: support +6.2 ppts (recent 32.7% vs season 26.5%, proj adj +3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Drew Rasmussen Over 5.5 (-137) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 5.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	5.5	-132	+102	-
BetRivers	5.5	-127	-105	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-137	+107	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-128	+100	-
Fanatics	5.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 5.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.30K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.5% / under 45.5%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Drew Rasmussen: K/9 9.6, proj 5.8K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 20.3% | xwOBA 0.276 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Changeup: 28.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 46 PA | K% 26.1% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .222 | OPS .706
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 18.5%, L7 21.7%, season 22.9%, BVP 26.1%/46 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 5.81
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Robbie Ray Over 4.5 (-146) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -146

Selected market: Over 56.0% / Under 44.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.67 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-146	+114	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-132	+104	-
BetRivers	5.5	-155	+116	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta -0.20
Robbie Ray: K/9 8.0, proj 4.6K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Curveball: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 60 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .308 | OPS 1.073
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 19.6%, L7 18.8%, season 21.5%, active roster 19.2%/7 hitters, BVP 13.3%/60 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 18.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/12 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.86
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Noah Schultz Over 3.5 (-145) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 3.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	3.5	-137	+106	-
BetRivers	3.5	-132	+100	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-135	+105	-
DK	3.5	-145	+114	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-136	+106	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 0.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.03K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Noah Schultz: K/9 7.9, proj 3.5K over 4.6 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.5% | put-away% 16.6% | xwOBA 0.361 | top pitch: Sweeper (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Austin Jones — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 18% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Noah Schultz: 2 PA | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 17.1%, L7 21.5%, season 22.3%, top-6 15.2% (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 15.2% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 4.14
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ronel Blanco Over 4.5 (-121) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/7 OVER | avg line 4.25 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	3.5	+188	-265	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-108	-120	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-121	-106	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-111	-
Fanatics	4.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.80K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.6% / under 48.4%); own-line consensus 4/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.29
Ronel Blanco: K/9 9.4, proj 5.3K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/3 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.9% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.335 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ronel Blanco: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .182
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 21.2%, L7 19.3%, season 22.0% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/3 (33%) | L10 1/3 (33%) | L20 1/3 (33%) | Season 1/3 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.33 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: K L10: 1/3 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (8 books) | consensus 57% (8 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Leahy Over 4.5 (-113) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-116	-111	-
BetRivers	4.5	-121	-110	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-113	-113	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-113	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.74K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Kyle Leahy: K/9 7.9, proj 5.2K over 5.3 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.4 outs/5.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.4% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.348 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Jansen Visconti — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Changeup: 31.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Leahy: 10 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .100 | OPS .300
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 21.8%, L7 23.0%, season 22.8%, top-6 23.5%, BVP 50.0%/10 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 22.2%; Confirmed Lineup; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 23.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.5% (4/6); lineup K% 22.8% (6/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5
K% trend: support +4.5 ppts (recent 24.5% vs season 20.0%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zach Thornton Over 4.5 (+111) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	4.5	+120	-156	Recommended
BetRivers	4.5	+112	-150	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	+111	-141	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.72K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.8% / under 55.2%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Umpire: Todd Tichenor — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, L7 25.7%, season 22.7%, top-6 19.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nathan Eovaldi Over 7.5 (+120) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -154 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 OVER | avg line 6.93 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books | 7.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -154 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	6.5	-157	+118	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	6.5	-154	+120	Recommended
theScore Bet	6.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	7.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	7.5	+113	-147	-
DK	7.5	+120	-153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 8.7K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 16.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.9% / under 57.1%); own-line consensus 3/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.67
Nathan Eovaldi: K/9 10.2, proj 8.7K over 6.0 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.7% | put-away% 23.7% | xwOBA 0.313 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: John Libka — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Curveball: 36.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 43 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .447 | OPS 1.094
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 43 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 24.2%, L7 29.0%, season 24.4%, BVP 23.3%/43 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/21 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 6.43
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
K% trend: support +3.3 ppts (recent 28.6% vs season 25.3%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — George Klassen Under 4.5 (-126) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-101	-128	-
BetRivers	4.5	+102	-137	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	-101	-126	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+104	-132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.67K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.4% / under 52.6%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
George Klassen: K/9 10.1, proj 3.8K over 3.4 IP (season 2.3 IP/GS; recent 2.1 IP/2 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 34.4% | put-away% 12.2% | xwOBA 0.472 | top pitch: Slider (60% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Jonathan Parra — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Slider: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 19.0%, L7 19.5%, season 21.6% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 2/2 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Mahle Under 5.5 (-119) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -119

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+200	-300	-
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	5.5	+100	-130	-
BetRivers	5.5	+106	-141	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	-107	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-130	-
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 14.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.80K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 48.8% / under 51.2%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Tyler Mahle: K/9 8.4, proj 4.7K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.9% | put-away% 20.8% | xwOBA 0.312 | top pitch: Split-Finger (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mark Ripperger — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Split-Finger: 29.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 25% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tyler Mahle: 49 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .250 | OPS .874
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 19.7%, L7 24.6%, season 24.4%, top-6 22.0%, BVP 20.4%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.0% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.94
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (-153) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -153

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	+113	-147	-
BetRivers	5.5	+108	-143	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+120	-153	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+122	-156	-
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 12.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.70K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.9% / under 57.1%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Shane Baz: K/9 7.9, proj 4.8K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Curveball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: John Libka — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Curveball: 22.6% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .158 | OPS .501
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.8%, L7 25.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 (-152) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 6.07 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-175	+130	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	5.5	-159	+120	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+240	-425	-
BetOnline	6.5	+122	-159	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+120	-160	-
DK	6.5	+119	-152	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	6.5	+128	-164	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 12.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.80K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.1% / under 56.9%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Logan Gilbert: K/9 9.3, proj 5.7K over 6.1 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.0% | put-away% 19.8% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Split-Finger (38% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 60 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .291 | OPS .768
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.1%, split 15.8%, L7 17.4%, season 19.1%, active roster 16.0%/6 hitters, BVP 18.3%/60 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 15.8%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 17.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 16.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 6.32
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Parker Messick Over 5.5 (-156) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	5.5	-169	+130	-
BetRivers	5.5	-150	+112	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	-
DK	5.5	-156	+122	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-162	+126	-
Fanatics	5.5	-160	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 10.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.59K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.5% / under 42.5%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Parker Messick: K/9 8.3, proj 6.1K over 5.8 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.274 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Austin Jones — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 30.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Parker Messick: 43 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .244 | OPS .669
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 43 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 21.2%, L7 27.4%, season 23.9%, BVP 25.6%/43 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.82
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.8 ppts (recent 19.0% vs season 24.8%, proj adj -2.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zebby Matthews Over 4.5 (-118) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -118

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-114	-114	-
BetRivers	4.5	-109	-122	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-118	-108	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-111	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.0% / under 49.0%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Zebby Matthews: K/9 8.0, proj 5.0K over 5.3 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Curveball: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 11 PA | K% 45.5% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .111 | OPS .384
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 23.7%, L7 26.8%, season 21.2% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.93
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kevin Gausman Under 5.5 (-155) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -155

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	5.5	+120	-156	-
BetRivers	5.5	+114	-152	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+122	-155	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+125	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.49K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.6% / under 57.4%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Kevin Gausman: K/9 9.2, proj 5.0K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.3% | put-away% 18.5% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Split-Finger (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Adam Beck — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kevin Gausman: 58 PA | K% 10.3% | BB% 1.7% | AVG .296 | OPS .889
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 58 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 23.8%, L7 14.8%, season 21.1%, top-6 23.2%, BVP 10.3%/58 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Kansas City Royals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.5%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 14.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.2% (5/6); lineup K% 21.8% (6/9); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.52
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Carmen Mlodzinski Over 3.5 (+134) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 3.12 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +320; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-165	+125	Recommended
BetRivers	2.5	-175	+128	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+320	-600	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	+128	-167	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+130	-170	-
DK	3.5	+134	-172	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+128	-164	-
Fanatics	3.5	+130	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 8.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.29K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 40.3% / under 59.7%); own-line consensus 2/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.43
Carmen Mlodzinski: K/9 7.6, proj 3.8K over 4.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 2.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.1% | put-away% 15.2% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Split-Finger (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Todd Tichenor — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Split-Finger: 39.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 24 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .238 | OPS .673
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 24 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.5%, L7 25.7%, season 22.7%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 29.2%/24 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 7/25 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 3.04
Prop trend: K L10: 1/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season
K% trend: support +3.3 ppts (recent 22.2% vs season 18.9%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (8 books) | books against us 29% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Merrill Kelly Over 3.5 (-138) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.7% / Under 45.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	3.5	-152	+116	-
BetRivers	3.5	-139	+104	-
DK	3.5	-138	+108	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-130	+102	Recommended
Fanatics	3.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 6.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.21K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.7% / under 45.3%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Merrill Kelly: K/9 6.6, proj 3.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.7% | put-away% 14.4% | xwOBA 0.398 | top pitch: Slider (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Slider: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 205 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 11.2% | AVG .293 | OPS .901
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 205 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.2%, L7 20.4%, season 20.5%, BVP 15.6%/205 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.80
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5
K% trend: support +5.4 ppts (recent 20.7% vs season 15.3%, proj adj +2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Roki Sasaki Under 5.5 (-159) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+140	-200	-
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-147	+114	-
BetRivers	4.5	-157	+118	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
FanDuel	4.5	-148	+116	-
DK	5.5	+124	-159	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.1% / under 57.9%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.17
Roki Sasaki: K/9 9.4, proj 5.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.3% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Slider: 26.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Roki Sasaki: 22 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 13.6% | AVG .263 | OPS .943
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 18.4%, L7 19.3%, season 19.3%, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.32
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 12 play(s) (B 1 | C 11)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Zack Wheeler Over 17.5 (-178) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 17.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -178

Selected market: Over 60.1% / Under 39.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.57 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 17.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 18 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-175	+130	Recommended
Bovada Direct	17.5	-190	+145	-
Caesars	17.5	-205	+150	-
DK	17.5	-178	+135	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-220	+162	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-200	+140	-
BetOnline	18	+100	-140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 17.874 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.72 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.1% / under 39.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.57 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.2 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 84, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 84
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 93 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 1.1% | AVG .267 | OPS .646
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 18.7%, L7 19.9%, season 19.5%, BVP 20.4%/93 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 5.9%, split 6.6%, L7 6.6%, season 7.3%, BVP 1.1%/93 PA (adj 0.82x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.30 | Season Avg 17.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -1.20 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Kevin Gausman Under 18.5 (-188) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -188 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -188

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 18.19 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 5 books | 17.5 at 2 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 18.5 -188 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 17.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-190	+140	Raw BestVerify
Fanatics	17.5	-195	+135	-
BetOnline	18	+100	-140	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+145	-190	-
Caesars	18.5	+155	-210	-
DK	18.5	+141	-188	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	18.5	+140	-198	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 16.350999999999996 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 11.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.82 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.9% / under 61.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 18.19 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: -0.6 outs (short leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 86
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kevin Gausman: 58 PA | K% 10.3% | BB% 1.7% | AVG .296 | OPS .889
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 23.8%, L7 14.8%, season 21.1%, top-6 23.2%, BVP 10.3%/58 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 9.3%, L7 5.8%, season 8.2%, BVP 1.7%/58 PA (adj 0.90x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.2% (5/6); lineup K% 21.8% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 20/23 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.70 | Season Avg 16.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 under 18.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap -2.15 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap -2.15 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Kyle Leahy Under 17.5 (-132) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 17.36 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books | 16.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 16.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	16.5	-120	-110	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	17.5	-110	-130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	17.5	-111	-121	Recommended
DK	17.5	-101	-132	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-106	-128	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 15.600999999999999 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.99 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 17.36 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.1 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Leahy: 10 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .100 | OPS .300
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 21.8%, L7 23.0%, season 22.8%, top-6 23.5%, BVP 50.0%/10 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.5%, split 8.5%, L7 5.9%, season 8.1%, BVP 0.0%/10 PA (adj 0.86x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.1 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.5% (4/6); lineup K% 22.8% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.70 | Season Avg 15.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.90 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.90 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Max Fried Under 17.5 (-130) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 17.21 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books | 16.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 16.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	16.5	-130	-105	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	16.5	-125	-115	-
BetOnline	17.5	-110	-130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	17.5	-102	-128	Recommended
DK	17.5	-102	-130	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-102	-136	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 15.928 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.3 IP (recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.68 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 17.21 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 74)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.3 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 74
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Max Fried: 40 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 2.5% | AVG .128 | OPS .278
Opponent K profile: composite 17.8%, split 18.5%, L7 16.9%, season 21.2%, top-6 18.4%, BVP 10.0%/40 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.4%, split 6.4%, L7 7.2%, season 7.9%, BVP 2.5%/40 PA (adj 0.86x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.8%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 17.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nathan Eovaldi Over 17.5 (-182) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -182

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.71 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books | 18 at 1 book | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 18.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-180	+140	Recommended
Caesars	17.5	-193	+142	-
DK	17.5	-182	+136	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-188	+140	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-190	+135	-
BetOnline	18	-140	+100	-
BetMGM	18.5	+145	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 18.642000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.27 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.4% / under 39.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.71 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 43 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .447 | OPS 1.094
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 24.2%, L7 29.0%, season 24.4%, BVP 23.3%/43 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 10.7%, L7 12.2%, season 10.3%, BVP 7.0%/43 PA (adj 1.12x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 18.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Gilbert Over 18.5 (+132) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 18 -120 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 18.44 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 7 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 18 -120 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 18.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	18	-120	-120	Recommended
BetMGM	18.5	+135	-185	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	18.5	+135	-175	-
Caesars	18.5	+135	-185	-
DK	18.5	+132	-176	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+130	-178	-
Fanatics	18.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 19.649 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 6.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.47 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.3% / under 59.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 18.44 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 106
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 60 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .291 | OPS .768
Opponent K profile: composite 17.2%, split 15.8%, L7 17.4%, season 19.1%, BVP 18.3%/60 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 9.2%, L7 6.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 8.3%/60 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.2%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/22 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.30 | Season Avg 18.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.21 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Parker Messick Over 17.5 (-161) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-175	+125	-
BetOnline	17.5	-160	+120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	17.5	-175	+121	-
DK	17.5	-161	+121	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-180	+125	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.5 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.47 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Parker Messick: 43 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .244 | OPS .669
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 21.2%, L7 27.4%, season 23.9%, BVP 25.6%/43 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 10.1%, L7 9.3%, season 8.9%, BVP 4.7%/43 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 17.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Payton Tolle Under 17.5 (+141) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 18 -120 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +141

Selected market: Over 61.2% / Under 38.8%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.56 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 18 -120 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-190	+140	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-190	+145	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	17.5	-195	+140	-
DK	17.5	-189	+141	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-172	+124	-
Fanatics	17.5	-170	+120	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-190	+135	-
BetOnline	18	-120	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 16.608999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.78 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 61.2% / under 38.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.56 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: -0.6 outs (short leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 86
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Payton Tolle: 22 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .610
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 29.4%, L7 20.8%, season 22.7%, BVP 27.3%/22 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 9.8%, L7 6.7%, season 8.8%, BVP 4.5%/22 PA (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.10 | Season Avg 16.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shane Drohan Over 17.5 (-123) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-125	-110	-
BetOnline	17.5	-130	-110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	17.5	-125	-107	-
DK	17.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-130	-104	-
Fanatics	17.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.991 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.66 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 21.3%, L7 19.5%, season 21.3% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 7.6%, L7 8.4%, season 8.6% (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/22 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 12.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +5.00 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Drew Rasmussen Under 17.5 (+131) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 18 -140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +131

Selected market: Over 59.6% / Under 40.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.57 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 18 -140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-160	+120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-175	+135	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	17.5	-165	+120	-
DK	17.5	-176	+131	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-152	+114	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-160	+110	-
BetOnline	18	+100	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 17.137999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.14 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 59.6% / under 40.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.57 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 84)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 84
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 46 PA | K% 26.1% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .222 | OPS .706
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 18.5%, L7 21.7%, season 22.9%, BVP 26.1%/46 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.3%, L7 11.6%, season 8.8%, BVP 2.2%/46 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 16.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shane Baz Under 17.5 (+118) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +118

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	17.5	-150	+110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	17.5	-143	+107	-
DK	17.5	-157	+118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+102	-
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.2 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .158 | OPS .501
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.8%, L7 25.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 6.9%, L7 10.8%, season 8.6%, BVP 9.5%/21 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.10 | Season Avg 17.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cade Cavalli Under 17.5 (-125) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	17.5	-110	-130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	17.5	-109	-122	-
DK	17.5	-106	-125	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 17.345000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.43 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cade Cavalli: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 23.5%, L7 28.7%, season 25.3%, top-6 22.6% (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.3%, split 10.4%, L7 14.0%, season 9.7% (adj 1.17x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.3%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.90 | Season Avg 15.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 20 play(s) (B 2 | C 18)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-259) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -259 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -259

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -259 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+195	-
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	-
DK	1.5	+191	-259	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.252)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.328 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 14/43 (33%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 83/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/58 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 83/113 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — CJ Abrams Under 1.5 (-253) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -253 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -253

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -253 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 0.5 +195; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+185	-
BetOnline	0.5	-263	+195	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
DK	1.5	+186	-253	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.287)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.347 (58 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 8/39 (20%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 80/113 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/56 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter Hits: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter Hits: 80/113 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Sal Stewart Under 1.5 (-240) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -240

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-220	+165	-
BetOnline	0.5	-217	+165	-
DK	1.5	+178	-240	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.97 (AVG 0.257)
Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.255 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 11/36 (31%) | L5 5/17 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/114 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 46/60 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter Hits: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 86/114 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake Mangum Under 1.5 (-236) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
DK	1.5	+175	-236	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.90 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Seiya Suzuki Under 1.5 (-267) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -267

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+196	-267	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.270)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.302 (71 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 12/38 (32%) | L5 5/19 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/99 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/51 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 35/48 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 71/99 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Wilyer Abreu Under 1.5 (-257) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -257 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -257

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -257 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	-
BetOnline	1.5	+209	-286	-
DK	1.5	+190	-257	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.97 (AVG 0.253)
Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.325 (78 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 10/40 (25%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/112 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/57 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter Hits: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 81/112 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-248) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+183	-248	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+175	-235	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.260)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.302 (67 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 12/36 (33%) | L5 6/19 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 86/114 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/58 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 42/56 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 86/114 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 1.5 (-227) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -227 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -227

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -227 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+168	-227	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.289)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.422 (63 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 12/40 (30%) | L5 8/19 (42%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 83/116 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/59 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 42/57 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter Hits: 83/116 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 (-217) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -217 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -217

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -217 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+161	-217	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.15 (AVG 0.303)
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.267 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 14/41 (34%) | L5 8/22 (36%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/105 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 31/45 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 40/60 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter Hits: 71/105 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 1.5 (-206) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -206

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
DK	1.5	+154	-206	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.287)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.250 (52 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 16/44 (36%) | L5 7/22 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/110 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/57 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter Hits: 77/110 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-258) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+190	-258	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.293)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.233 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 10/45 (22%) | L5 8/23 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/100 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter Hits: 39/49 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Hits: 71/100 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Kevin McGonigle Under 1.5 (-264) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -264

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+194	-264	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.284)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.280 (49 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: JT Brubaker contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 14/41 (34%) | L5 5/19 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 82/111 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/55 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 40/56 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter Hits: 82/111 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Dillon Dingler Under 1.5 (-250) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+190	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Recommended
DK	1.5	+184	-250	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.278)
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.390 (40 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: JT Brubaker contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 16/49 (33%) | L5 10/24 (42%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 72/106 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter Hits: 72/106 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-257) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -257

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Recommended
DK	1.5	+189	-257	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.286)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 15 PA | 5/15 | HR 2 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Recent form: L10 10/38 (26%) | L5 6/17 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/97 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter Hits: 34/46 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 68/97 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-268) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -268

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 -260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+195	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	Recommended
DK	1.5	+197	-268	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.15 (AVG 0.277)
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.276 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 11/40 (28%) | L5 6/17 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 57/81 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/42 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 25/39 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter Hits: 57/81 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Burleson Under 1.5 (-232) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -232

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+172	-232	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.287)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.326 (77 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 10/34 (29%) | L5 7/17 (41%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/60 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter Hits: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter Hits: 78/114 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jordan Walker Under 1.5 (-257) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -257

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+189	-257	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.285)
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 11/43 (26%) | L5 8/24 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/111 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 36/52 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter Hits: 78/111 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 (-257) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -257

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+160	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+189	-257	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.297)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.392 (53 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 16/40 (40%) | L5 8/19 (42%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/105 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 33/56 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter Hits: 69/105 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-191) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -191 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -191 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.31 (AVG 0.326)
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.300 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 14/43 (33%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/108 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 28/52 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter Hits: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 65/108 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+169) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +169

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+169	-228	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.28 (AVG 0.318)
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.324 (85 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 10/43 (23%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 44/112 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter Hits: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 44/112 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.28

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Over 4.5 4.5 (-102) edge 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees (F5) | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 4 -125 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 4 at 1 book

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 4 -125 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 4.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
MyBookie	4	-125	+102	Recommended
BetMGM	4.5	-102	-130	-
BetOnline	4.5	+105	-125	Raw BestVerify
BetUS	4.5	-105	-125	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	4.5	+100	-130	-
FanDuel	4.5	-102	-128	Selected

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
F5 model: 4.9 runs vs line 4.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER)
Max Fried xFIP 3.68
Tyler Mahle xFIP 4.11
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 114 (team 100)
Atlanta Braves confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 114 (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.14
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.04, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 12 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Home SP: Max Fried (LHP)
Away SP: Tyler Mahle (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 47.2% (6 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: selected-line market against 47.2% (6 books) — posture note at C

▸ Run Line — 2 play(s) (B 1 | C 1)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Run Line — Kansas City Royals +1.5 1.5 (-112) edge 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Kansas City Royals 1.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -112

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: BetRivers Kansas City Royals 1.5 -106 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (27)

[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: -0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+26.96/$100
✓ Cover prob 67.1% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 16.5% ≥ 5%
✓ Kansas City Royals home RL 71% (7 bets)
✓ L5 RL 5/5
✓ Odds -112 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Daniel Lynch IV (LHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Kevin Gausman (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.98)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 101 (team 98)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 105)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 54%, bullpen 46%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 33% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: selected book disagrees | books against us 33% (9 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Run Line — San Francisco Giants +1.5 1.5 (-149) edge 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct San Francisco Giants 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -149

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct San Francisco Giants 1.5 -145 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model run margin: +0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+20.27/$100
✓ Cover prob 72.0% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 14.7% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -149 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: JT Brubaker (RHP) | opp wRC+ 119 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Keider Montero (RHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs RHP (neutral)
Oracle Park (EXTREME PITCHER, run factor 0.92)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 54%, bullpen 46%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 0.95, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | split consensus 44% (9 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 (+123) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.16 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 6.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kevin Gausman: 58 PA | K% 10.3% | BB% 1.7% | AVG .296 | OPS .889
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 23.8%, L7 14.8%, season 21.1%, top-6 23.2%, BVP 10.3%/58 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.2% (5/6); lineup K% 21.8% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zach Thornton Under 5.5 (-124) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -124

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-107	-124	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, L7 25.7%, season 22.7%, top-6 19.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Merrill Kelly (ARIZ) Under 5.5 (-120) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, L7 20.4%, season 20.5% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jack Perkins Under 5.5 (-147) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+111	-147	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.11 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.47, BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jack Perkins: 16 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 18.8% | AVG .077 | OPS .558
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 23.0%, L7 18.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 12.5%/16 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 24/27 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 2.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +2.02 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 (-116) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.42, BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 205 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 11.2% | AVG .293 | OPS .901
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.2%, L7 20.4%, season 20.5%, BVP 15.6%/205 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 (+123) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 +123; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-165	+125	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-165	+125	-
DK	5.5	+123	-164	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.04 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.28, BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 43 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .447 | OPS 1.094
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 24.2%, L7 29.0%, season 24.4%, BVP 23.3%/43 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 5.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zebby Matthews Over 5.5 (+107) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.13 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.46, BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 11 PA | K% 45.5% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .111 | OPS .384
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 23.7%, L7 26.8%, season 21.2% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/14 (43%) | Season 6/14 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Feltner Over 5.5 (+103) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+103	-137	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.25 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.64, BB% 9.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .158 | OPS .474
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 19.7%, L7 22.6%, season 20.5%, top-6 18.7%, BVP 26.3%/19 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.7% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (-136) Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+102	-136	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.04 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.40, BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .158 | OPS .501
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.8%, L7 25.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/22 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Total — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-102) edge 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -102

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	+100	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	+100	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	+102	-	-
BetUS	7.5	+100	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+105	-	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	7.5	-102	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-102	-	-
LowVig	7.5	+103	-	-
MyBookie	7.5	+103	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+100	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Shane Baz (RHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Texas Rangers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 110 (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Nathan Eovaldi elite xFIP (3.27)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-115) edge 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -115

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-115	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-115	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-117	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-115	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-115	-	-
DK	7.5	-115	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-115	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-113	-	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	7.5	-116	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-115	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 9.0 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Noah Schultz (LHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Parker Messick (LHP) | opp wRC+ 117 vs LHP (tough)
Guaranteed Rate Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Chicago White Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 100)
Cleveland Guardians confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 99 (team 94)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Parker Messick elite xFIP (3.47)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-101) edge 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 6.5 -135 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7 -101

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7 at 9 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 6.5 -135 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Over 7 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	-135	-	Recommended
BetMGM	7	-102	-	-
BetOnline	7	-105	-	-
BetRivers	7	+100	-	Raw BestVerify
BetUS	7	-105	-	-
Bovada Direct	7	-105	-	-
DK	7	-101	-	Selected
FanDuel	7	-104	-	-
LowVig	7	-102	-	-
MyBookie	7	-103	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.2 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Logan Gilbert (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Drew Rasmussen (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.2
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Logan Gilbert elite xFIP (3.47)
Drew Rasmussen elite xFIP (3.14)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.5 8.5 (-105) edge 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 8.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 -105

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8.5

Line distribution: 8.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 8.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8.5	-105	-	-
BetOnline	8.5	-105	-	-
BetRivers	8.5	-107	-	-
BetUS	8.5	-105	-	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	-110	-	-
DK	8.5	-105	-	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	-105	-	-
LowVig	8.5	-102	-	-
MyBookie	8.5	-105	-	-
theScore Bet	8.5	+100	-	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Jack Perkins (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 102 (team 100)
Athletics confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 114 (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.08
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-109) edge 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 7.5 -130 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 8 -109

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 8 at 9 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 7.5 -130 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is LowVig Over 8 -102; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	7.5	-130	-	Recommended
BetMGM	8	-105	-	-
BetOnline	8	-105	-	-
BetRivers	8	-104	-	-
BetUS	8	-105	-	-
Bovada Direct	8	-110	-	-
DK	8	-109	-	Selected
FanDuel	8	-112	-	-
LowVig	8	-102	-	Raw BestVerify
MyBookie	8	-105	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[IL] Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Jack Anderson (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Garrett Acton (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Shane Drohan (LHP) | opp wRC+ 93 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Zebby Matthews (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 102)
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 35% (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

▸ F5 ML — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Athletics (+195) edge 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (F5) | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars +210 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +195

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: Caesars +210 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Fenway Park (HITTER)
Payton Tolle xFIP 3.78
Jack Perkins xFIP 4.12
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 107 (team 100)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP)
Away SP: Jack Perkins (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

▸ YRFI — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Small Stake Lean Signal - Small Stake YRFI — YRFI (+135) edge 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +135

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.519
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0402 after 0.0150 buffer
Drew Rasmussen / Logan Gilbert announced and matched

▸ Moneyline — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Moneyline — Athletics (+240) edge 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK +240 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +240

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: DK +240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Underdog ML value — Athletics at +240 with 20.8% edge (EV $+69.24/$100)
Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Jack Perkins (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 102 (team 100)
Athletics confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 114 (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.08
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.0 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 69.3% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 23.3% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds +108 within price guard (-160 floor)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

▸ Batter HR — 265 play(s) (C 265)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 98.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0093
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.276 (65 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 107/108 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/52 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 55/56 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 107/108 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 98.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0094
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.141 (13 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 105/106 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/53 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 53/53 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 105/106 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 94.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 94.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 94.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 94.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 94.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 94.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sean Murphy Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 94.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Ornelas Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brian Serven Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randal Grichuk Under 0.5 (-750) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-650) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edgar Quero Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brenton Doyle Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luisangel Acuna Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-20000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -20000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -20000

Selected market: Over 5.6% / Under 94.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 94.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -20000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.323 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 107/107 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/57 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 50/50 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 107/107 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0300
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.296 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 97/100 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/52 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/48 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 97/100 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Tolbert Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Flores Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy (2002) Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Oswald Peraza Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Heineman Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Baez Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Torrens Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — César Prieto Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronny Simon Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-800) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edouard Julien Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-900) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brady House Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0374
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 103/107 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 103/107 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 91.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 91.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-900) diff 91.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 91.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leo Jimenez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 91.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 90.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0463
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/108 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/52 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 103/108 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 90.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0561
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.304 (64 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/107 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 101/107 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0577
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.222 (20 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/104 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 51/53 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 98/104 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 89.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0636
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.343 (13 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 16 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 18.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .598
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 104/110 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 104/110 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 89.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0614
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.271 (34 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 107/114 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/62 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 107/114 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 88.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0614
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.364 (67 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 107/114 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 107/114 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 88.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0541
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.403 (46 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 105/111 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 105/111 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 87.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0517
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 110/116 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 58/59 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 110/116 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 87.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0632
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.280 (26 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 89/95 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 41/44 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 89/95 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 87.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0667
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.178 (23 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/105 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 98/105 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0541
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.229 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 105/111 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 105/111 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 86.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0741
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/108 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/108 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 86.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0796
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 104/113 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 104/113 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 86.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0686
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.252 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 95/102 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 95/102 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0762
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.313 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/105 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 98/105 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0727
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.289 (39 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/110 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 102/110 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 85.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0909
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.301 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 100/110 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 100/110 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 84.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0804
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.273 (59 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/112 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 103/112 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 84.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0818
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.237 (35 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/110 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/110 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.478 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 96/104 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 96/104 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0991
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.288 (57 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/111 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 101/111 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 83.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0789
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 106/114 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 106/114 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 82.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0796
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.297 (22 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/113 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 104/113 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 81.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0849
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.434 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/106 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 98/106 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 81.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1140
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/114 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/114 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 80.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0957
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.296 (15 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/115 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 106/115 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 80.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1062
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.328 (78 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 102/113 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/59 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 102/113 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 80.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1028
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.249 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/107 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 97/107 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 79.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0804
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.449 (85 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 103/112 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/112 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 79.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 5.6% / Under 94.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 94.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0804
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.449 (85 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 103/112 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/112 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 78.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 5.6% / Under 94.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 94.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1149
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 78/87 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 78/87 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Harry Ford Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 78.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1149
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 78/87 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 78/87 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0926
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.287 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 11 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 27.3% | OPS .489
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/108 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 98/108 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-800) diff 78.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1038
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.353 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/106 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 95/106 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-650) diff 78.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1263
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.200 (16 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/95 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/41 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 84/95 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1207
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/116 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 103/116 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1207
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/116 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 103/116 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1207
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/116 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 103/116 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1081
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.337 (49 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: JT Brubaker contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 99/111 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 99/111 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1217
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.308 (64 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/115 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/115 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 77.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1171
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/111 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 99/111 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1140
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.330 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 102/114 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 102/114 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1100
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.298 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/100 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 90/100 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1053
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/114 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/114 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1412
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.336 (11 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .545
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 73/85 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 30/37 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 73/85 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1296
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 76.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1226
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.323 (32 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/106 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 94/106 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1171
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.336 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/111 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 99/111 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1261
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.391 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/111 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 98/111 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1101
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.624 (35 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/109 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 98/109 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1161
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.353 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 99/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1481
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.169 (13 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 12 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .273
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/108 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 92/108 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1261
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.676 (36 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/111 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 99/111 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1313
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.492 (12 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/99 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 86/99 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.303 (60 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 96/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1217
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.355 (79 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/115 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 104/115 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-900) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1308
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.293 (59 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 95/107 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 95/107 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-550) diff 73.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1190
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.398 (20 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 75/84 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 75/84 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 73.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1190
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.398 (20 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 75/84 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 75/84 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 73.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1340
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.257 (12 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 3 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/97 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 84/97 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.354 (52 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 96/110 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 96/110 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 73.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1224
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.336 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/98 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 37/44 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 87/98 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 73.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1456
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.232 (20 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/103 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 89/103 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1282
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.383 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/117 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 103/117 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1652
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.344 (91 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 97/115 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 97/115 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1402
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.356 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/107 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 92/107 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 72.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1340
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 15 PA | 5/15 | HR 2 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/97 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 85/97 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1532
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.298 (69 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/111 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 98/111 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1376
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1376
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1376
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-900) diff 72.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1376
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.300 (38 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 72.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1340
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.252 (65 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 85/97 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 85/97 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-800) diff 71.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1389
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.479 (22 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/108 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 93/108 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1468
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.288 (65 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/109 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 94/109 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 70.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1589
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.204 (11 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/107 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 91/107 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 70.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1416
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.440 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 98/113 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 98/113 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-700) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1416
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (67 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 98/113 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 98/113 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-900) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1636
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.239 (79 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/110 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 93/110 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.448 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-650) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1404
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.283 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Noah Schultz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 100/114 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 100/114 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1650
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.498 (38 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Payton Tolle: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/103 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 88/103 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-800) diff 69.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.594 (67 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/112 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 97/112 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-750) diff 69.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1416
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.499 (53 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: JT Brubaker contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/113 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 98/113 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1468
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.455 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1607
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.499 (51 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/112 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 94/112 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 68.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1619
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.593 (43 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/105 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 89/105 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-900) diff 68.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1619
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.593 (43 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/105 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 89/105 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.232 (17 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 22 PA | 10/17 | HR 2 | K% 4.5% | BB% 13.6% | OPS 1.858
BVP production adjustment: 1.13x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/91 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 40/44 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 79/91 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1468
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-700) diff 67.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1682
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.390 (20 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/107 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 92/107 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-900) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1579
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 13 PA | 7/13 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.154
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/114 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 97/114 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-900) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1339
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.474 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 37 PA | 10/32 | HR 2 | K% 21.6% | BB% 13.5% | OPS 1.062
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 37 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-750) diff 64.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1579
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.430 (77 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/114 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 98/114 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 64.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1786
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.212 (40 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/112 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 93/112 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 64.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1727
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/110 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 92/110 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Starling Marte Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 64.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1727
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/110 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 92/110 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-800) diff 64.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1727
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/110 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 92/110 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-900) diff 64.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2174
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.367 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/92 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 34/42 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 73/92 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-550) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1786
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.465 (78 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 95/112 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 95/112 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-700) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1919
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.416 (71 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/99 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 80/99 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-800) diff 63.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2124
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/113 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 90/113 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-900) diff 63.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1881
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.573 (52 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/101 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 84/101 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-750) diff 62.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1875
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.197 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 79/96 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 36/48 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 79/96 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 62.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1754
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.458 (59 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: JT Brubaker contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/114 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 95/114 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-800) diff 62.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1727
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.575 (23 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/110 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 92/110 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-600) diff 62.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.414 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/115 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 94/115 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-900) diff 62.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.305 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/95 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 77/95 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-800) diff 61.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1579
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.397 (80 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/114 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 98/114 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-650) diff 61.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1852
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.376 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 68/81 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/42 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 34/39 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 68/81 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-700) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.313 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.583 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/115 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 92/115 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-650) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1964
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.293 (38 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/112 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 91/112 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-750) diff 60.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2069
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.266 (47 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/116 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 93/116 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-650) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2124
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .722
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/113 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 91/113 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-600) diff 59.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2035
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.314 (51 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/113 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 92/113 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-550) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2243
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.215 (23 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .310 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/107 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 87/107 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-800) diff 58.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2193
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.318 (31 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 91/114 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 91/114 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2315
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.549 (40 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/108 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 84/108 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-750) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2315
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.549 (40 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/108 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 84/108 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-650) diff 55.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1758
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.517 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/91 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 78/91 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-650) diff 55.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 19.5% / Under 80.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2241
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.598 (63 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/116 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 93/116 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-700) diff 55.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1982
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.489 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 89/111 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 89/111 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-700) diff 54.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.260 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/108 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 87/108 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 54.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.260 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/108 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 87/108 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-550) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2783
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.486 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 86/115 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 86/115 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-750) diff 50.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2326
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.613 (22 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Cavalli: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 67/86 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/45 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 67/86 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-450) diff 47.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2818
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.247 (25 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/110 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/48 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 80/110 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2453
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.552 (40 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: JT Brubaker contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 83/106 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 40/54 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter HR: 83/106 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-650) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2095
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.31x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.614 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 49 PA | 17/41 | HR 1 | K% 12.2% | BB% 16.3% | OPS 1.096
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 49 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/105 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 88/105 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-650) diff 43.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2478
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.530 (58 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Chase Petty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 87/113 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter HR: 87/113 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-475) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2895
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.642 (18 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 28.6% | OPS 1.171 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/114 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 85/114 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-390) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -390

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2385
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.476 (53 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/105 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 80/105 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-400) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3000
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.370 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 82/110 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 82/110 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-450) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3070
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.846 (45 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.917 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/114 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 84/114 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-650) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3143
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.276 (42 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/105 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter HR: 80/105 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

9 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
B	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-115	51.1%	77.2%	+26.1%	$+44.38	9	Bet on DK
C	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	8:16 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-102	48.2%	72.6%	+24.4%	$+43.74	9	Bet on DK
B	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-118	51.7%	74.4%	+22.7%	$+37.46	9	Bet on DK
C	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	Moneyline	Athletics	DK	+240	28.9%	49.8%	+20.8%	$+69.24	9	Bet on DK
C	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-115	51.1%	69.5%	+18.4%	$+29.99	9	Bet on DK
C	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:46 PM	Total	Over 7.0	DK	-101	48.0%	66.3%	+18.2%	$+31.94	9	Bet on DK
B	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	8:11 PM	Run Line	Kansas City Royals +1.5	DK	-112	50.5%	67.1%	+16.5%	$+26.96	9	Bet on DK
C	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	Total	Over 8.5	DK	-105	48.9%	65.2%	+16.3%	$+27.26	9	Bet on DK
C	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-109	49.8%	65.9%	+16.1%	$+26.41	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (9 play(s))

B Over 8.0 — Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees (Total) +26.1%

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Model total: 10.2 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Max Fried (LHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Tyler Mahle (RHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs RHP (tough)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 110 (team 100)
Atlanta Braves confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 108 (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 10.2
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.09
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.08, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 12 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Stats within normal range

C Over 7.5 — Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers (Total) +24.4%

[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Shane Baz (RHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Texas Rangers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 110 (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Nathan Eovaldi elite xFIP (3.27)

B Over 7.5 — Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies (Total) +22.7%

[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 10 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Model total: 9.4 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Zack Wheeler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 97 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: José Soriano (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Philadelphia Phillies confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 98)
Toronto Blue Jays confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 97 (team 94)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.4
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.08, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Weather: Wind 10 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Zack Wheeler elite xFIP (2.72)

C Athletics — Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (Moneyline) +20.8%

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Underdog ML value — Athletics at +240 with 20.8% edge (EV $+69.24/$100)
Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Jack Perkins (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 102 (team 100)
Athletics confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 114 (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.08
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.0 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 69.3% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 23.3% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds +108 within price guard (-160 floor)

C Over 7.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox (Total) +18.4%

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 9.0 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Noah Schultz (LHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Parker Messick (LHP) | opp wRC+ 117 vs LHP (tough)
Guaranteed Rate Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Chicago White Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 100)
Cleveland Guardians confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 99 (team 94)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Parker Messick elite xFIP (3.47)

C Over 7.0 — Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners (Total) +18.2%

[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.2 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Logan Gilbert (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Drew Rasmussen (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.2
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Logan Gilbert elite xFIP (3.47)
Drew Rasmussen elite xFIP (3.14)

B Kansas City Royals +1.5 — Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals (Run Line) +16.5%

[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: -0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+26.96/$100
✓ Cover prob 67.1% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 16.5% ≥ 5%
✓ Kansas City Royals home RL 71% (7 bets)
✓ L5 RL 5/5
✓ Odds -112 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Daniel Lynch IV (LHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Kevin Gausman (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.98)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 101 (team 98)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 105)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 54%, bullpen 46%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

C Over 8.5 — Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (Total) +16.3%

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Jack Perkins (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 102 (team 100)
Athletics confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 114 (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.08
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

C Over 8.0 — Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers (Total) +16.1%

[IL] Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Jack Anderson (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Garrett Acton (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Shane Drohan (LHP) | opp wRC+ 93 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Zebby Matthews (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 102)
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 35% (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

F5 BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (F5)	7:11 PM	F5 ML	Athletics	DK	+195	31.9%	47.4%	+15.4%	$+39.80	9	Bet on DK
B	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers (F5)	8:16 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	-144	55.3%	64.2%	+8.9%	$+8.82	6	Bet on DK
B	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees (F5)	7:06 PM	F5 Total	Over 4.5	FanDuel	-102	47.3%	56.0%	+8.6%	$+10.87	6	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (3 play(s))

C Athletics — Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (F5) (F5 ML) +15.4%

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Fenway Park (HITTER)
Payton Tolle xFIP 3.78
Jack Perkins xFIP 4.12
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 107 (team 100)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP)
Away SP: Jack Perkins (RHP)

B Over 3.5 — Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers (F5) (F5 Total) +8.9%

[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Globe Life Field (HITTER)
Nathan Eovaldi xFIP 3.27
Shane Baz xFIP 4.20
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 100)
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.02
F5 environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP)
Away SP: Shane Baz (RHP)

B Over 4.5 — Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees (F5) (F5 Total) +8.6%

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
F5 model: 4.9 runs vs line 4.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER)
Max Fried xFIP 3.68
Tyler Mahle xFIP 4.11
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 114 (team 100)
Atlanta Braves confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 114 (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.14
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.04, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 12 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Home SP: Max Fried (LHP)
Away SP: Tyler Mahle (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates

6:41 PM · decision fi-983158df059cc71e

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.8% / YRFI 50.2%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Zac Thornton · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Carmen Mlodzinski · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T20:17:57.331972Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.498
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Zac Thornton / Carmen Mlodzinski announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.498

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSZac Thornton / Carmen Mlodzinski announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-120	-105	51.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-133	+100	53.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies

6:41 PM · decision fi-235cdfbdb5a0ecd2

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.6% / YRFI 48.4%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: José Soriano · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Zack Wheeler · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T20:17:57.331972Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.516
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
José Soriano / Zack Wheeler announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.516

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJosé Soriano / Zack Wheeler announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-154	+115	56.6%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-127	-109	51.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-118	-108	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals

6:46 PM · decision fi-a148a9e7d63541af

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.1% / YRFI 50.9%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Chase Petty · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Cade Cavalli · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T20:17:57.331972Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.491
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Chase Petty / Cade Cavalli announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.491

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSChase Petty / Cade Cavalli announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-115	49.5%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	+115	-154	43.4%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-104	-129	47.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-102	-125	47.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+105	-135	45.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees

7:06 PM · decision fi-db022850ee6437ca

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.9% / YRFI 49.1%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Tyler Mahle · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Max Fried · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T20:17:57.331972Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.509
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Tyler Mahle / Max Fried announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.509

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSTyler Mahle / Max Fried announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-125	+100	52.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-119	-111	50.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-106	-120	48.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Athletics @ Boston Red Sox

7:11 PM · decision fi-0822d97358b6d7b0

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.0% / YRFI 50.0%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Jack Perkins · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Payton Tolle · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T20:17:57.331972Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.500
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Jack Perkins / Payton Tolle announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.500

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJack Perkins / Payton Tolle announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-120	-105	51.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-127	-105	52.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-122	-104	51.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins

7:11 PM · decision fi-f84c6b0dbfb72be3

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 48.9% / YRFI 51.1%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: George Klassen · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Tyler Phillips · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T20:17:57.331972Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.489
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
George Klassen / Tyler Phillips announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.489

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSGeorge Klassen / Tyler Phillips announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-118	49.2%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-105	-127	47.8%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-105	-127	47.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

7:41 PM · decision fi-5f270b58cdc0afec

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.4% / YRFI 48.6%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Parker Messick · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Noah Schultz · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T20:17:57.331972Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.514
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Parker Messick / Noah Schultz announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.514

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSParker Messick / Noah Schultz announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-120	-112	50.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-118	-108	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers

7:41 PM · decision fi-b4c9d231f94302e2

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.5% / YRFI 49.5%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Zebby Matthews · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Shane Drohan · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T20:17:57.331972Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.505
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Zebby Matthews / Shane Drohan announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.505

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSZebby Matthews / Shane Drohan announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-137	+103	54.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-136	+102	53.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals

8:11 PM · decision fi-f1b8d30308fb6cb0

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.9% / YRFI 50.1%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Kevin Gausman · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Daniel Lynch IV · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T20:17:57.331972Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.499
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Kevin Gausman / Daniel Lynch IV announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.499

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSKevin Gausman / Daniel Lynch IV announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-118	49.2%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	+110	-147	44.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+110	-140	44.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers

8:16 PM · decision fi-0ec05a37ce22fd81

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.0% / YRFI 50.0%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Shane Baz · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Nathan Eovaldi · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T20:17:57.331972Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.500
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Shane Baz / Nathan Eovaldi announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.500

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSShane Baz / Nathan Eovaldi announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-133	+100	53.3%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-124	-108	51.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-138	+108	54.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals

8:16 PM · decision fi-e2ab59d577c9db41

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.6% / YRFI 49.4%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Ryan Feltner · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Kyle Leahy · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T20:17:57.331972Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.506
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Ryan Feltner / Kyle Leahy announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.506

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRyan Feltner / Kyle Leahy announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-115	49.5%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-106	-120	48.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

9:41 PM · decision fi-3a69ec5b0075ad18

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.9% / YRFI 50.1%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Roki Sasaki · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Merrill Kelly · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T20:17:57.331972Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.499
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Roki Sasaki / Merrill Kelly announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.499

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRoki Sasaki / Merrill Kelly announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-118	-110	50.8%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-102	-130	47.2%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-112	-120	49.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+112	-142	44.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres

9:41 PM · decision fi-78441736478cccb8

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.5% / YRFI 48.5%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Ronel Blanco · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Robbie Ray · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T20:17:57.331972Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.515
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Ronel Blanco / Robbie Ray announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.515

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRonel Blanco / Robbie Ray announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-118	49.2%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners

9:46 PM · decision fi-352fbd407d3e224e

YRFI · Grade C

2026 Model Probability

48.1%

Fair Odds

+108

Best Executable Price

BetOnline +135

Raw / Effective Edge

+5.5% / +4.0%

Away starter: Drew Rasmussen · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Logan Gilbert · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T20:17:57.331972Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.519
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0402 after 0.0150 buffer
Drew Rasmussen / Logan Gilbert announced and matched

Grade C reflects effective edge plus 5 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.519

Executable price · PASSGrade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0402 after 0.0150 buffer

Starter status · PASSDrew Rasmussen / Logan Gilbert announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-155	+120	57.2%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-182	+135	60.3%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-148	+105	55.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-138	+108	54.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-150	+120	56.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants

10:16 PM · decision fi-f9cfe1822b6fd187

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.0% / YRFI 49.0%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Keider Montero · official_announced · matched

Home starter: JT Brubaker · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T20:17:57.331972Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.510
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Keider Montero / JT Brubaker announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.510

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSKeider Montero / JT Brubaker announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-120	-105	51.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-130	-102	52.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 265 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=265
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Merrill Kelly (R)	theScore Bet	+250	-	39.2%	26.4%	+12.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	1	Chase Petty (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	38.9%	18.8%	+20.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	1	George Klassen (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	36.9%	18.8%	+18.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Max Muncy	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Merrill Kelly (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	35.7%	18.8%	+16.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	-	Robbie Ray (L)	theScore Bet	+275	-	35.5%	24.6%	+10.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Wilyer Abreu	Boston Red Sox	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	3	Jack Perkins (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	35.4%	20.8%	+14.6%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	2	Ryan Feltner (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	34.4%	17.9%	+16.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Josh Lowe	Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	8	Tyler Phillips (R)	theScore Bet	+900	-	34.1%	9.4%	+24.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	JJ Bleday	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	3	Cade Cavalli (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	34.0%	17.1%	+16.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	3	Ryan Feltner (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	33.7%	17.1%	+16.6%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	2	Tyler Mahle (R)	theScore Bet	+275	-	33.2%	24.6%	+8.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	-	Zebby Matthews (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	33.1%	18.8%	+14.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:46 PM	-	Logan Gilbert (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	32.6%	23.2%	+9.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	-	JT Brubaker (R)	theScore Bet	+550	-	32.4%	14.3%	+18.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	4	Kyle Leahy (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	32.1%	18.8%	+13.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	3	José Soriano (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	31.6%	17.1%	+14.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	8:16 PM	-	Nathan Eovaldi (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	31.1%	17.9%	+13.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	2	Cade Cavalli (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	31.1%	16.4%	+14.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Brice Turang	Milwaukee Brewers	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	-	Zebby Matthews (R)	theScore Bet	+550	-	30.9%	14.3%	+16.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	8:11 PM	3	Kevin Gausman (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	30.6%	17.9%	+12.7%	99	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	100	95.1%	-1930	CJ Abrams, JJ Bleday, Sal Stewart, Abimelec Ortiz	Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 \| Wind 10 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 4.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	100	93.7%	-1495	Ben Rice, Matt Olson, Heliot Ramos, Spencer Jones	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 \| Wind 12 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 6.3%	-
Strong HR Environment	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	100	92.3%	-1199	Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Kazuma Okamoto, Brandon Marsh	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 \| Wind 10 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	100	90.9%	-996	Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Hunter Goodman, Jimmy Crooks	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	100	90.1%	-912	Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill	Petco Park HR factor 0.85 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	100	89.5%	-850	Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Corbin Carroll, Andy Pages	Chase Field HR factor 1.02 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	100	87.4%	-695	Wilyer Abreu, Tyler Soderstrom, Ceddanne Rafaela, Jarren Duran	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	8:16 PM	100	87.4%	-692	Pete Alonso, Jake Burger, Gunnar Henderson, Brandon Nimmo	Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.6%	-
Watchlist	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	100	85.9%	-608	Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, Kody Clemens, Ryan Jeffers	American Family Field HR factor 1.08	-
Watchlist	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	100	85.2%	-577	Bryan Reynolds, Brandon Lowe, Francisco Lindor, Carson Benge	PNC Park HR factor 0.96 \| Precip chance 44% -- delay/postponement risk	-
Watchlist	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	100	84.7%	-553	Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery, Braden Montgomery, Jo Adell	Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	8:11 PM	100	84.6%	-551	Jac Caglianone, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Carter Jensen, Seiya Suzuki	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	100	84.1%	-528	Kyle Stowers, Josh Lowe, Zach Neto, Griffin Conine	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88	-
Watchlist	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:46 PM	100	83.8%	-519	Junior Caminero, Julio Rodriguez, Dominic Canzone, Jonathan Aranda	T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92	-
Watchlist	Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	100	81.3%	-436	Dillon Dingler, Rafael Devers, Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Shohei Ohtani — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+250) HR chance 39.2% | edge +12.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.238, OPS 0.953, ISO 0.257, TB/G 2.06
Statcast: barrel 16.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.5/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.581
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 25/105 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.25
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0469, xFIP 4.94, K% 15.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.398, xERA 7.17, whiff 20.7%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.533, K% 0.0% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.046, OPS 0.948, ISO 0.241 (327 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Best HR Chance CJ Abrams — Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals (+400) HR chance 38.9% | edge +20.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.248, OPS 0.913, ISO 0.264, TB/G 2.07
Statcast: barrel 10.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.7/110.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.458
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 26/113 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0388, xFIP 5.45, K% 10.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.350, xERA 5.27, whiff 19.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.069, OPS 0.994, ISO 0.299 (332 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.530, xwOBA 0.347 (58 PA)

Best HR Chance Kyle Stowers — Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins (+400) HR chance 36.9% | edge +18.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.176, OPS 0.770, ISO 0.221, TB/G 1.69
Statcast: barrel 11.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.1/112.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.431
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 13/91 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0554, xFIP 7.93, K% 18.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.472, xERA 11.27, whiff 34.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.050, OPS 0.840, ISO 0.251 (300 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.517, xwOBA 0.379 (49 PA)

⚠ High-whiff arsenal

Best HR Chance Max Muncy — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+400) HR chance 35.7% | edge +16.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.209, OPS 0.841, ISO 0.241, TB/G 1.64
Statcast: barrel 13.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.5/110.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.474
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 17/105 (16%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0469, xFIP 4.94, K% 15.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.398, xERA 7.17, whiff 20.7%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.096, K% 12.2% (49 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.053, OPS 0.839, ISO 0.236 (304 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Best HR Chance Yordan Alvarez — Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres (+275) HR chance 35.5% | edge +10.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.307, OPS 1.082, ISO 0.311, TB/G 2.32
Statcast: barrel 18.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.5/118.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.704
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 30/114 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0285, xFIP 4.74, K% 20.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.324, xERA 4.42, whiff 25.2%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.917, K% 0.0% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.070, OPS 0.871, ISO 0.259 (128 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Best HR Chance Wilyer Abreu — Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (+350) HR chance 35.4% | edge +14.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.179, OPS 0.783, ISO 0.204, TB/G 1.76
Statcast: barrel 12.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.0/113.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.484
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 17/112 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0445, xFIP 4.11, K% 26.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.310, xERA 4.01, whiff 28.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.045, OPS 0.710, ISO 0.203 (336 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.465, xwOBA 0.325 (78 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Strong HR Chance Jordan Walker — Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals (+425) HR chance 34.4% | edge +16.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.198, OPS 0.834, ISO 0.206, TB/G 1.91
Statcast: barrel 13.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.1/116.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.482
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 0/20 (0%) | Season 22/111 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 0/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0519, xFIP 4.79, K% 17.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.360, xERA 5.62, whiff 24.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.045, OPS 0.807, ISO 0.200 (352 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.489, xwOBA 0.349 (49 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

⚠ Cold recent HR form

Best HR Chance Josh Lowe — Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins (+900) HR chance 34.1% | edge +24.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.222, OPS 0.807, ISO 0.231, TB/G 1.93
Statcast: barrel 12.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.1/111.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.450
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 21/108 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0287, xFIP 4.58, K% 17.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.334, xERA 4.73, whiff 25.6%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.060, OPS 0.902, ISO 0.279 (336 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.478, xwOBA 0.372 (46 PA)

⚠ Batter stats team Pittsburgh Pirates does not match game teams

⚠ Low lineup spot (8)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Troy Johnston	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	+1000	0.7%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Steven Kwan	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	+1200	0.8%	Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Cold recent HR form
Nasim Nunez	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	+1200	0.9%	Confirmed lineup but player not listed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Taylor Ward	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:46 PM	+800	1.0%	Team lineup not posted \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Andres Gimenez	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+800	1.1%	Confirmed lineup but player not listed \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Cold recent HR form
Luke Keaschall	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	+900	1.2%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Josh Naylor	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:46 PM	+600	1.3%	Team lineup not posted \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Mauricio Dubon	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+1000	1.3%	Confirmed lineup but player not listed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Cold recent HR form
Nick Gonzales	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+900	1.3%	Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Cold recent HR form
Isaac Collins	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	8:11 PM	+900	1.5%	Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	JT Brubaker	Keider Montero	0.82	18.7%	50.0%	-	+0.0%
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:46 PM	Logan Gilbert	Drew Rasmussen	0.92	16.2%	45.6%	-	+0.0%
Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	Tyler Phillips	George Klassen	0.88	15.9%	45.2%	12.0%	+3.9%
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	8:11 PM	Daniel Lynch IV	Kevin Gausman	0.93	15.4%	44.2%	9.5%	+5.9%
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	Noah Schultz	Parker Messick	1.00	15.3%	44.1%	8.3%	+7.0%
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	Carmen Mlodzinski	Zac Thornton	0.96	14.8%	43.0%	11.6%	+3.2%
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	Shane Drohan	Zebby Matthews	1.08	14.1%	41.8%	-	+0.0%
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	Payton Tolle	Jack Perkins	0.95	12.6%	38.6%	9.5%	+3.1%
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	8:16 PM	Nathan Eovaldi	Shane Baz	1.10	12.6%	38.8%	9.8%	+2.8%
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Merrill Kelly	Roki Sasaki	1.02	10.5%	34.2%	-	+0.0%
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	Robbie Ray	Ronel Blanco	0.85	9.9%	32.8%	-	+0.0%
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	Kyle Leahy	Ryan Feltner	0.93	9.1%	31.0%	9.7%	-0.6%
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	Zack Wheeler	José Soriano	1.10	7.7%	27.4%	10.4%	-2.7%
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Max Fried	Tyler Mahle	1.18	6.3%	23.6%	4.9%	+1.4%
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	Cade Cavalli	Chase Petty	1.02	4.9%	19.8%	8.7%	-3.8%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays	73.2	70.1	82.0	6	Split-Finger (48% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 31.6%, put-away 23.2%, xwOBA 0.251, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves	68.3	54.2	87.0	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.241, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	65.0	59.6	73.0	5	Cutter (30% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 22.3%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins	61.4	60.4	66.0	6	Slider (41% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	60.1	54.4	69.5	6	Changeup (38% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	59.4	52.8	70.5	6	Changeup (35% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	59.1	63.5	59.5	6	Split-Finger (38% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 30.0%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles	58.7	68.9	51.0	6	Curveball (41% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	58.6	65.7	52.5	6	Changeup (44% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 28.4%, put-away 25.2%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Daniel Lynch IV	Kansas City Royals vs Chicago Cubs	56.8	57.0	64.0	5	Slider (44% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	56.7	63.8	49.0	3	Slider (39% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 30.3%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies	55.6	67.7	47.0	5	Curveball (46% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kevin Gausman	Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals	54.6	56.8	54.0	3	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds	52.8	54.7	52.0	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants	49.2	38.1	62.0	5	Slider (30% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 18.8%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees	48.9	46.3	51.5	5	Split-Finger (28% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robbie Ray	San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros	47.9	51.9	45.5	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ronel Blanco	Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres	47.9	56.5	40.0	4	Changeup (38% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels	46.8	52.5	40.5	6	Curveball (46% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers	45.5	43.5	47.5	5	Curveball (29% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers	44.2	45.2	42.0	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
JT Brubaker	San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers	40.5	40.7	42.0	5	Slider (39% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Carmen Mlodzinski	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets	40.1	41.0	39.0	7	Split-Finger (31% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	39.3	48.5	27.5	6	Changeup (48% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates	38.9	41.0	39.0	7	Sweeper (27% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 19.9%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies	38.4	44.4	33.5	6	Changeup (33% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chase Petty	Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals	36.6	35.0	32.5	5	Changeup (32% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 11.7%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Noah Schultz	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	35.1	41.3	27.0	6	Sweeper (33% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 20.5%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.361, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
George Klassen	Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins	30.6	64.7	0.0	5	Slider (60% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 34.4%, put-away 12.2%, xwOBA 0.472, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	25.5	39.5	8.5	6	Slider (33% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.398, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	17.2%	5.4	5.7	5.7	91	normal	full	8.50	91.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	R	26.3%	4.3	4.7	4.7	72	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees	R	21.8%	5.5	5.3	5.3	92	normal	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers	R	20.3%	5.3	5.8	5.7	89	normal	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	L	28.7%	5.1	5.6	5.5	86	short	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Kevin Gausman	Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals	R	23.1%	5.1	5.5	5.5	86	short	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Noah Schultz	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	L	19.8%	4.3	4.6	4.5	72	short	full	27.00	73.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Chase Petty	Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals	R	16.9%	1.4	5.3	4.8	24	short	full	32.50	67.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.4 IP/start
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	L	22.8%	5.5	5.9	5.8	92	normal	full	70.50	29.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	18.0%	4.6	4.8	4.8	77	short	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants	R	19.3%	4.3	5.7	5.4	72	short	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Ronel Blanco	Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres	R	24.0%	4.5	4.9	5.3	76	short	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Daniel Lynch IV	Kansas City Royals vs Chicago Cubs	L	17.0%	1.0	-	4.8	17	short	full	64.00	36.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.9%
George Klassen	Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins	R	21.1%	2.1	2.3	4.7	35	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.1 IP/start
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	24.6%	5.3	5.2	5.2	89	normal	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels	R	16.9%	4.0	4.6	4.4	67	short	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins	L	24.4%	6.0	5.3	6.0	101	deep	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	20.3%	4.8	5.8	5.6	80	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	19.8%	5.9	5.7	5.8	99	normal	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves	L	25.0%	4.4	5.8	5.5	74	short	full	87.00	13.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	35.8%	5.0	5.8	6.0	84	short	full	82.00	18.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Carmen Mlodzinski	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets	R	20.1%	2.6	4.9	4.5	44	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.6 IP/start
Robbie Ray	San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros	L	21.1%	5.4	5.5	5.5	91	normal	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
JT Brubaker	San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers	R	17.4%	1.8	-	5.0	30	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.8 IP/start
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	26.2%	6.3	6.0	6.1	106	deep	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies	R	21.6%	5.2	5.1	5.1	87	normal	full	33.50	66.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	R	26.6%	5.0	5.6	5.5	84	short	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles	R	26.5%	5.4	6.1	6.0	91	normal	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.3%
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	24.1%	5.6	5.6	5.6	94	normal	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds	R	25.1%	6.0	5.1	6.0	101	deep	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

12/12 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Kevin Gausman	Kevin Gausman Under	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	18.5	16.4	-2.1	11.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap -2.15 <= 3 min
Kyle Leahy	Kyle Leahy Under	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	15.6	-1.9	10.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.1	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.90 <= 3 min
Max Fried	Max Fried Under	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	17.5	15.9	-1.6	9.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	74	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nathan Eovaldi	Nathan Eovaldi Over	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Logan Gilbert	Logan Gilbert Over	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	18.5	19.6	1.1	6.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Parker Messick	Parker Messick Over	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	18.5	1.0	5.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Payton Tolle	Payton Tolle Under	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	16.6	-0.9	5.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shane Drohan	Shane Drohan Over	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	18.0	0.5	2.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Drew Rasmussen	Drew Rasmussen Under	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	17.1	-0.4	2.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	84	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shane Baz	Shane Baz Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Cade Cavalli	Cade Cavalli Under	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	17.5	17.3	-0.1	0.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Zack Wheeler	Zack Wheeler Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	17.5	17.9	0.4	2.1%	B	MONITOR	research	short	6.0	84	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

229 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
CJ Abrams	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.95	1.22	0.85	0.89	2.89 / Over	0.30	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jordan Walker	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.79	1.23	0.76	0.80	2.87 / Over	0.30	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.76	1.21	0.92	0.63	2.30 / Over	0.30	season_games=95,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Otto Lopez	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.72	1.47	0.77	0.49	3.05 / Over	0.30	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Alec Burleson	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.65	1.19	0.58	0.87	2.67 / Over	0.30	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.64	1.20	0.68	0.76	2.78 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.62	1.05	0.73	0.84	2.28 / Over	0.30	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Pedro Ramirez	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	Over 1.5	2.56	1.30	0.60	0.66	2.20 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Brandon Lowe	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.53	1.11	0.76	0.66	2.46 / Over	0.30	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jake McCarthy	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.52	1.17	0.66	0.68	2.42 / Over	0.30	season_games=100,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Drake Baldwin	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.48	1.09	0.79	0.60	2.05 / Over	0.30	season_games=92,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ben Rice	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.45	1.04	0.76	0.65	2.23 / Over	0.30	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.45	1.01	0.68	0.76	2.37 / Over	0.30	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.42	1.07	0.59	0.76	2.59 / Over	0.35	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.42	1.09	0.60	0.72	2.72 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.41	1.03	0.72	0.66	2.01 / Over	0.30	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Bryan Reynolds	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.38	1.04	0.70	0.63	2.40 / Over	0.30	season_games=117,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
JJ Wetherholt	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.37	1.09	0.84	0.44	2.31 / Over	0.30	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jackson Chourio	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.34	1.16	0.65	0.53	2.47 / Over	0.35	season_games=81,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Griffin Conine	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.33	1.27	0.49	0.57	2.02 / Over	0.59	lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Ivan Herrera	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.32	1.25	0.51	0.56	2.15 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.31	1.23	0.54	0.54	2.73 / Over	0.35	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jose Ramirez	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.30	1.30	0.47	0.52	2.20 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Ozzie Albies	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.27	1.02	0.65	0.61	1.85 / Over	0.30	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Brice Turang	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.27	1.05	0.61	0.61	2.44 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 4 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes