MLB Bets 2026-08-07

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	1029W–481L–0P	68%	-46.67 u	Last 14 days • 1510 settled
Grade A	26W–32L–0P	45%	-12.26 u
Grade B	1002W–445L–0P	69%	-31.69 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3202W–2033L–8P	61%	-189.20 u	All-time • 5243 settled
Grade A	249W–192L–0P	56%	-5.40 u
Grade B	2952W–1837L–8P	62%	-181.08 u

80 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter H+R+RBI	Andy Pages	1.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter H+R+RBI	Freddie Freeman	1.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter H+R+RBI	Otto Lopez	1.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cole Young	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Endy Rodriguez	0.5	-245	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Jared Young	0.5	-300	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-265	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Julio Rodriguez	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Kyle Schwarber	0.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Luis Garcia Jr.	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-340	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Jack Perkins	4.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	6.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Zack Wheeler	6.5	122	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Jack Perkins	3.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Max Fried	1.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Payton Tolle	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Shane Drohan	1.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Tyler Phillips	1.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Hits Allow	Keider Montero	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Hits Allow	Kyle Leahy	5.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Pitcher Hits Allow	Payton Tolle	5.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Total	Over	8.0	-104	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-06	K Prop	Brandon Young	4.5	-157	-	LOSS	-1.000	Brandon Young: 4.0 (line 4.5)
2026-08-06	K Prop	Kohl Drake	3.5	-155	-	LOSS	-1.000	Kohl Drake: 1.0 (line 3.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	523	56%	-14.42u	70	46%	-14.27u	244	57%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	463	58%	+8.43u	62	53%	-4.42u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	161	58%	+5.16u	21	81%	+8.41u	44	64%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1620	74%	-30.21u	910	74%	-26.99u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	517	57%	-19.48u	107	53%	-10.11u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	387	61%	-5.07u	92	66%	+7.96u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	53	70%	-0.98u	15	53%	-3.88u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	34	53%	-0.50u	3	33%	-1.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	4	25%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	2
YRFI	👀 WATCH	3	67%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	3
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	116	47%	-12.87u	7	71%	+1.32u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	55	40%	-9.78u	5	60%	+0.73u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	27	56%	-0.87u	24	54%	-1.30u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	570	52%	-53.65u	66	59%	+1.81u	85	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 23 total candidate(s); season N 523, 14d N 70	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 8 total candidate(s); season N 463, 14d N 62	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 161, 14d N 21	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 27 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 27/27 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 16 total candidate(s); season N 53, 14d N 15	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 200 total candidate(s); season N 34, 14d N 3	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 116, 14d N 7	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 27, 14d N 24	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 3 actionable / 85 total candidate(s); season N 570, 14d N 66	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 85 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 784 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 224 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 761 pitcher(s), 3363 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 573 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 27 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 389 hitter(s) \| 27 SP matchup(s), 989 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 389 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Angels, Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles, Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, Miami Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Guardians, San Diego Padres, Cincinnati Reds, Athletics, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays, Kansas City Royals
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox, Colorado Rockies, Cleveland Guardians, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 24 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 335 pitcher(s)
ℹ	PARTIAL	Review coverage	Pitching prop coverage: PARTIAL -- 13/14 game(s) with pitching props \| K 23 line(s)/12 game(s); Outs 22 line(s)/12 game(s); Hits Allowed 16 line(s)/12 game(s); Walks 0 line(s)/0 game(s); Earned Runs 15 line(s)/12 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 52, fanatics 20, bovada_direct 3, fanduel 1 \| missing: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2172 market side(s) checked \| 2172 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 12 game(s) fetched \| 12 with ML odds \| 12 with total odds \| 4 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 85 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 14 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 621 \| batter bats 400 \| batter hand splits 145 \| pitcher HR splits 59 \| batter pitch-type 573 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 209 batter(s) scored \| 14 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 56 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation blocked

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+120	-145	1.5 (-170)	-1.5 (+140)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+181	-223	1.5 (-119)	-1.5 (-102)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+129	-156	1.5 (-157)	-1.5 (+130)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+222	-278	1.5 (+104)	-1.5 (-126)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	+142	-172	1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	-143	+119	-1.5 (+123)	1.5 (-148)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	+144	-175	1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	8:11 PM	-164	+138	-1.5 (-102)	1.5 (-118)	O/U 10.0	AWAY	ML: FanDuel \| RL: FanDuel \| Total: FanDuel	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	8:16 PM	+129	-156	1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	+138	-167	1.5 (-155)	-1.5 (+128)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-181	+149	-1.5 (-106)	1.5 (-114)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+102	-123	1.5 (-204)	-1.5 (+167)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:46 PM	+101	-122	-1.5 (+177)	1.5 (-217)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	-124	+106	-1.5 (+138)	1.5 (-166)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: FanDuel \| RL: FanDuel \| Total: FanDuel	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

3 Grade A | 29 Grade B | 752 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -140, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.094/AVG 0.447 over 43 PA	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi Over	ORI@RAN	8:16 PM	6.5	8.8	-140	DK Over 6.5 -140 \| exact	34.7%	✓✓✓✓–✓	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, active roster BVP K% 14.3% over 21 PA, pitch-type boost on 20% usage pitch	K Prop	Jack Perkins Over	ATH@SOX	7:11 PM	4.5	5.6	-129	DK Over 4.5 -129 \| exact	24.5%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal A-tier prop gate: 67% consensus; needs diff_pct >= 21.3% and raw gap >= 1.00 for Grade A (got 18.7%, 1.22)	K Prop	Zack Wheeler Over	JAY@PHI	6:41 PM	6.5	7.7	+122	FanDuel Over 5.5 -164 \| alt rescue	18.7%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

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Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (8 play(s))

K Prop - Zack Wheeler Over

Selected line 6.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 6

K Prop - Tyler Phillips Over

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.3

Pitcher Earned Runs - Payton Tolle Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter Hits - Tommy Edman Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Wilyer Abreu Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Yandy Diaz Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Nick Gonzales Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Kyle Karros Over

Projection: 1.4Displayed: Over 0.5 -190Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.17Recommended: Fanatics Over 0.5 -190 | exactOwn-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.6%Selected market: Over 61.6% / Under 38.4%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

⭐ Featured Signals - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Nathan Eovaldi Over 6.5 (-140) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	-160	+120	-
DK	6.5	-140	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	-154	+120	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.8K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 34.7% vs 17% min; cushion +2.26K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.9% / under 45.1%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Nathan Eovaldi: K/9 10.2, proj 8.8K over 6.0 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.7% | put-away% 23.7% | xwOBA 0.313 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Curveball: 36.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 43 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .447 | OPS 1.094
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 43 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 24.2%, L7 29.0%, season 24.4%, BVP 23.3%/43 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 6.43
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
K% trend: support +3.3 ppts (recent 28.6% vs season 25.3%, proj adj +1.6%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -140, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.094/AVG 0.447 over 43 PA -- A risk note

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Jack Perkins Over 4.5 (-129) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -129

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	-
DK	4.5	-129	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-132	+104	-
Fanatics	4.5	-130	+100	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 24.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.10K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.1% / under 46.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jack Perkins: K/9 10.9, proj 5.6K over 4.7 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.4% | put-away% 25.2% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Changeup (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 32.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 21 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 19.1% | AVG .118 | OPS .639
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 23.0%, L7 18.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 14.3%/21 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/27 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 3.30
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +2.30 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, active roster BVP K% 14.3% over 21 PA, pitch-type boost on 20% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 (+122) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -164 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 6 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -164 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 6.5 +122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-165	+125	-
FanDuel	5.5	-164	+128	Recommended
DK	6.5	+122	-155	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	6.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 18.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.6% / under 57.4%); own-line consensus 2/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.67
Zack Wheeler: K/9 12.3, proj 7.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.6% | put-away% 23.2% | xwOBA 0.251 | top pitch: Split-Finger (48% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 127 PA | K% 20.5% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .231 | OPS .599
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 127 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.7%, L7 19.9%, season 19.5%, active roster 19.1%/6 hitters, BVP 20.5%/127 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.80 | Season Avg 7.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
K% trend: support +12.9 ppts (recent 44.2% vs season 31.3%, proj adj +6.5%)

⚠ A-tier prop gate: 67% consensus; needs diff_pct >= 21.3% and raw gap >= 1.00 for Grade A (got 18.7%, 1.22) -- A-grade risk note

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (29 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Merrill Kelly (ARIZ) Over 3.5 (-135) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 41.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.46K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.1% / under 45.9%)
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, L7 20.4%, season 20.5% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -135, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats -- downgraded for monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Keider Montero Under 5.5 (-150) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 30.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.79 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.03, BB% 5.4%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.9%, L7 19.2%, season 20.9% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/24 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-150) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kyle Leahy Under 5.5 (-151) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.84 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.17, BB% 7.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.8% / under 56.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 18 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .118 | OPS .402
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 21.8%, L7 23.0%, season 22.8%, BVP 38.9%/18 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 5.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-151) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Payton Tolle Under 5.5 (-155) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+117	-155	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Payton Tolle: 26 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .200 | OPS .671
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 29.4%, L7 20.8%, season 22.7%, BVP 26.9%/26 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 4.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-155) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 5 play(s) (B 5)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Drohan Over 1.5 (-165) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 57.2% / Under 42.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.44 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.65, ERA 3.73)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.2% / under 42.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 21.3%, L7 19.5%, season 21.3% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Max Fried Over 1.5 (-165) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 57.2% / Under 42.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.17 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.68, ERA 3.79)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.2% / under 42.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Max Fried: 58 PA | K% 15.5% | BB% 5.2% | AVG .164 | OPS .425
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 18.5%, L7 16.9%, season 21.2%, BVP 15.5%/58 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Payton Tolle Over 1.5 (-172) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-172	+129	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	2.5	+125	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.27 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.78, ERA 3.26)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.2% / under 40.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Payton Tolle: 26 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .200 | OPS .671
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 29.4%, L7 20.8%, season 22.7%, BVP 26.9%/26 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-172) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Phillips Over 1.5 (-170) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.38 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.58, ERA 3.54)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 26.5%, L7 28.2%, season 25.2% (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/28 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.25 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jack Perkins Under 3.5 (-144) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.6 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 25.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.18 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.12, ERA 7.31)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 21 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 19.1% | AVG .118 | OPS .639
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 23.0%, L7 18.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 14.3%/21 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 22/27 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +1.76 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

▸ Batter Walks — 16 play(s) (B 16)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-475) diff 75.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/105 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 89/105 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-475) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-130) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.85 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/110 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/56 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 0.70 | Day Batter Walks: 59/110 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.65

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-475) diff 65.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .310 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/107 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 92/107 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Heavy juice (-475); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-450) diff 63.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/101 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 79/101 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-450); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-280) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Noah Schultz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 97/114 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 97/114 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-280) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-300) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 89/116 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 89/116 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-300); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-475) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 89/116 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 89/116 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-475) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Endy Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-245) diff 57.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/105 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 72/105 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

⚠ Heavy juice (-245); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-550) diff 57.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/105 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 72/105 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-550) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-500) diff 55.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/111 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 81/111 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-500); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-340) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/110 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 80/110 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-340) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-450) diff 54.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/99 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 74/99 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-450) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-280) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/112 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 92/112 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Heavy juice (-280); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-425) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/112 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 92/112 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-425) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-500) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 90/111 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 90/111 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-500); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-265) diff 51.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/111 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 79/111 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

⚠ Heavy juice (-265); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-159) diff 95.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 95.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.454 (84 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 72/112 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 72/112 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.35

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.4, heavy juice -159 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-148) diff 81.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 81.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.474 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 37 PA | 10/32 | HR 2 | K% 21.6% | BB% 13.5% | OPS 1.062
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 37 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/112 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 34/56 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.55 | Day Batter HRR: 60/112 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.16

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-146) diff 81.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 81.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.301, xSLG 0.397 (80 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/114 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 33/59 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 60/114 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▸ Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-104) edge 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 7.5 -125 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 8 -104

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 8 at 7 books | 7.5 at 1 book | 8.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 7.5 -125 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 8.5 +104; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	7.5	-125	-	Recommended
BetMGM	8	-105	-	-
BetOnline	8	+100	-	-
BetRivers	8	-109	-	-
BetUS	8	+100	-	-
Bovada Direct	8	+100	-	-
DK	8	-104	-	Selected
LowVig	8	+103	-	-
FanDuel	8.5	+104	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓–✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Model total: 9.8 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Shane Baz (RHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.8
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.08, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 11 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Nathan Eovaldi elite xFIP (3.27)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (752 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 19 play(s) (B 6 | C 13)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Phillips Over 3.5 (-158) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.8% / Under 42.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 4.5 +122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	-158	+124	SelectedRecommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
FanDuel	4.5	+122	-156	Raw BestVerify
Fanatics	4.5	+120	-160	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 32.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.14K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.8% / under 42.2%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); DK LOWER delta -1.00
Tyler Phillips: K/9 6.5, proj 4.6K over 4.5 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.7% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.334 | top pitch: Curveball (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Curveball: 38.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 26.5%, L7 28.2%, season 25.2% (adj 1.10x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 6/28 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Drohan Over 5.5 (+100) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
DK	5.5	+100	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-106	-120	-
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-125	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 21.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.2% / under 52.8%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shane Drohan: K/9 9.1, proj 6.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.7% | put-away% 21.3% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Slider (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Slider: 35.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 21.3%, L7 19.5%, season 21.3% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/22 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 4.05
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.55 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Roki Sasaki Over 4.5 (-142) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -142

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-142	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-148	+116	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.77K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.3% / under 44.7%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Roki Sasaki: K/9 9.4, proj 5.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.3% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Slider: 25.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Roki Sasaki: 22 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 13.6% | AVG .263 | OPS .943
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 18.4%, L7 19.3%, season 19.3%, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.32
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Kyle Leahy Over 4.5 (-126) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-126	-101	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	-120	-110	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.66K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.6% / under 47.4%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kyle Leahy: K/9 7.9, proj 5.2K over 5.3 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.4% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.348 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Changeup: 31.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 18 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .118 | OPS .402
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 21.8%, L7 23.0%, season 22.8%, active roster 21.7%/8 hitters, BVP 38.9%/18 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Colorado Rockies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5
K% trend: support +4.5 ppts (recent 24.5% vs season 20.0%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Ronel Blanco Over 4.5 (-113) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 13.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.59K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ronel Blanco: K/9 9.4, proj 5.1K over 4.6 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/3 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.9% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.335 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ronel Blanco: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .182
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 21.2%, L7 19.3%, season 22.0% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/3 (33%) | L10 1/3 (33%) | L20 1/3 (33%) | Season 1/3 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.33 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: K L10: 1/3 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Drew Rasmussen Over 5.5 (-107) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	+105	-
DK	5.5	-107	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-132	+104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 5.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.30K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.8% / under 51.2%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Drew Rasmussen: K/9 9.6, proj 5.8K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 20.3% | xwOBA 0.276 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Changeup: 28.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 46 PA | K% 26.1% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .222 | OPS .706
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 18.5%, L7 21.7%, season 22.9%, BVP 26.1%/46 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 5.81
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Feltner Over 3.5 (+115) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	+110	-145	-
DK	3.5	+115	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	+112	-142	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 27.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.98K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.9% / under 56.1%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ryan Feltner: K/9 7.4, proj 4.5K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.360 | top pitch: Changeup (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Changeup: 29.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 21 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .429
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.7%, L7 22.6%, season 20.5%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 28.6%/21 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/16 (44%) | Season 7/16 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.56
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 27.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 27.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Robbie Ray Under 5.5 (-160) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 17.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.97K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Robbie Ray: K/9 8.0, proj 4.5K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Curveball: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 60 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .308 | OPS 1.073
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 19.6%, L7 18.8%, season 21.5%, active roster 19.2%/7 hitters, BVP 13.3%/60 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 18.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/12 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.86
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap -0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap -0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Max Fried Under 5.5 (-119) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -119

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-107	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+106	-136	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 16.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.88K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 48.8% / under 51.2%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Max Fried: K/9 8.9, proj 4.6K over 5.4 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.241 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Changeup: 26.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Max Fried: 58 PA | K% 15.5% | BB% 5.2% | AVG .164 | OPS .425
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 58 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 18.5%, L7 16.9%, season 21.2%, active roster 20.9%/7 hitters, BVP 15.5%/58 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Atlanta Braves 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 16.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.23
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5
K% trend: support +4.7 ppts (recent 28.1% vs season 23.4%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zach Thornton Over 4.5 (-107) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-107	-119	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+110	-140	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 15.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.71K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.8% / under 51.2%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, L7 25.7%, season 22.7%, active roster 20.3%/6 hitters (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.3% (6 hitters)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — George Klassen Under 4.5 (-168) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -168

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+131	-168	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+108	-138	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.67K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 40.8% / under 59.2%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
George Klassen: K/9 10.1, proj 3.8K over 3.4 IP (season 2.3 IP/GS; recent 2.1 IP/2 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 34.4% | put-away% 12.2% | xwOBA 0.472 | top pitch: Slider (60% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Slider: 32.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 19.0%, L7 19.5%, season 21.6% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 2/2 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (-150) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+117	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+122	-156	-
Fanatics	5.5	+120	-160	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 12.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.67K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.4% / under 56.6%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shane Baz: K/9 7.9, proj 4.8K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Curveball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Curveball: 22.6% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .158 | OPS .501
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.8%, L7 25.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 103 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Payton Tolle Over 6.5 (+106) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	6.5	+106	-135	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+108	-138	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.3K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 12.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.79K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Payton Tolle: K/9 10.8, proj 7.3K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.8% | put-away% 22.3% | xwOBA 0.269 | top pitch: Cutter (30% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Payton Tolle: 26 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .200 | OPS .671
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 26 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 29.4%, L7 20.8%, season 22.7%, BVP 26.9%/26 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.11
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5
K% trend: support +6.2 ppts (recent 32.7% vs season 26.5%, proj adj +3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zebby Matthews Over 4.5 (-105) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.2% / Under 51.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	-105	-122	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+104	-132	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.2% / under 51.8%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Zebby Matthews: K/9 8.0, proj 5.0K over 5.3 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Curveball: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 11 PA | K% 45.5% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .111 | OPS .384
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 23.7%, L7 26.8%, season 21.2% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.93
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Parker Messick Over 5.5 (-129) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -129

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-129	+101	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-128	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-130	+100	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 10.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.55K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.1% / under 46.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Parker Messick: K/9 8.3, proj 6.0K over 5.8 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.274 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 30.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 52 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .188 | OPS .562
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 52 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 21.2%, L7 27.4%, season 23.9%, BVP 25.0%/52 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.82
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.8 ppts (recent 19.0% vs season 24.8%, proj adj -2.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Merrill Kelly Over 3.5 (-142) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -142

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	-142	+111	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-132	+104	-
Fanatics	3.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 6.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.3% / under 44.7%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Merrill Kelly: K/9 6.6, proj 3.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.7% | put-away% 14.4% | xwOBA 0.398 | top pitch: Slider (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Slider: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 205 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 11.2% | AVG .293 | OPS .901
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 205 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.2%, L7 20.4%, season 20.5%, BVP 15.6%/205 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.80
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5
K% trend: support +5.4 ppts (recent 20.7% vs season 15.3%, proj adj +2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Gilbert Over 5.5 (-133) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-165	+125	-
DK	5.5	-133	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-162	+126	-
Fanatics	5.5	-160	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.21K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.8% / under 46.2%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Logan Gilbert: K/9 9.3, proj 5.7K over 6.2 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.0% | put-away% 19.8% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Split-Finger (38% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 60 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .291 | OPS .768
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.1%, split 15.8%, L7 17.4%, season 19.1%, active roster 16.0%/6 hitters, BVP 18.3%/60 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 15.8%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 17.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 16.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 6.32
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Noah Schultz Over 3.5 (-123) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -123

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-105	-125	-
DK	3.5	-123	-104	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-102	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 2.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.0% / under 48.0%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Noah Schultz: K/9 7.9, proj 3.6K over 4.6 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.5% | put-away% 16.6% | xwOBA 0.361 | top pitch: Sweeper (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Schultz: 2 PA | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 17.1%, L7 21.5%, season 22.3%, active roster 18.1%/7 hitters (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 21.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 4.14
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Carmen Mlodzinski Over 3.5 (+119) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +119

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	+125	-165	-
DK	3.5	+119	-152	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+128	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	3.5	+125	-165	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 1.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.05K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.1% / under 56.9%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Carmen Mlodzinski: K/9 7.6, proj 3.5K over 4.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 2.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.1% | put-away% 15.2% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Split-Finger (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Split-Finger: 39.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 31 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 12.9% | AVG .308 | OPS .849
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 21.5%, L7 25.7%, season 22.7%, active roster 20.3%/6 hitters, BVP 22.6%/31 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 65%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 25.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 7/25 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 3.04
Prop trend: K L10: 1/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season
K% trend: support +3.3 ppts (recent 22.2% vs season 18.9%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 10 play(s) (B 1 | C 9)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Nathan Eovaldi Over 17.5 (-175) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 17.83 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-182	+135	-
DK	17.5	-175	+131	SelectedRecommended
Bovada Direct	18.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.642000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.27 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 17.83 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 43 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .447 | OPS 1.094
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 24.2%, L7 29.0%, season 24.4%, BVP 23.3%/43 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 10.7%, L7 12.2%, season 10.3%, BVP 7.0%/43 PA (adj 1.12x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 18.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Kyle Leahy Under 17.5 (-131) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-102	-132	-
DK	17.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 15.600999999999999 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.99 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.1 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 18 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .118 | OPS .402
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 21.8%, L7 23.0%, season 22.8%, BVP 38.9%/18 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 8.5%, L7 5.9%, season 8.1%, BVP 5.6%/18 PA (adj 0.92x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.1 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.70 | Season Avg 15.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.90 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.90 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Max Fried Under 17.5 (-134) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	17.5	-102	-132	-
DK	17.5	+101	-134	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 15.928 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.3 IP (recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.68 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 74)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.3 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 74
BVP (active roster) vs Max Fried: 58 PA | K% 15.5% | BB% 5.2% | AVG .164 | OPS .425
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 18.5%, L7 16.9%, season 21.2%, BVP 15.5%/58 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 6.4%, L7 7.2%, season 7.9%, BVP 5.2%/58 PA (adj 0.88x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.4%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 17.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Gilbert Over 18.5 (+123) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	18.5	+120	-159	-
DK	18.5	+123	-164	Selected
Fanatics	18.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 19.749 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 6.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.47 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 106
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 60 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .291 | OPS .768
Opponent K profile: composite 17.2%, split 15.8%, L7 17.4%, season 19.1%, BVP 18.3%/60 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 9.2%, L7 6.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 8.3%/60 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.2%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/22 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.30 | Season Avg 18.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.21 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Parker Messick Over 17.5 (-140) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-130	-102	-
DK	17.5	-140	+106	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.5 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.47 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.6% / under 45.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 52 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .188 | OPS .562
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 21.2%, L7 27.4%, season 23.9%, BVP 25.0%/52 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.1%, L7 9.3%, season 8.9%, BVP 7.7%/52 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 17.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Payton Tolle Under 17.5 (+109) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +109

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	17.5	-150	+113	-
DK	17.5	-145	+109	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-200	+140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 16.608999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.78 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: -0.6 outs (short leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 86
BVP (active roster) vs Payton Tolle: 26 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .200 | OPS .671
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 29.4%, L7 20.8%, season 22.7%, BVP 26.9%/26 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 9.8%, L7 6.7%, season 8.8%, BVP 3.9%/26 PA (adj 0.96x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.10 | Season Avg 16.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shane Drohan Over 17.5 (-108) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	17.5	-108	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-108	-122	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.991 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.65 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.6% / under 51.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 21.3%, L7 19.5%, season 21.3% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 7.6%, L7 8.4%, season 8.6% (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/22 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 12.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +5.00 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Zack Wheeler Over 17.5 (-157) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 17.83 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-164	+123	-
DK	17.5	-157	+118	SelectedRecommended
Bovada Direct	18.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 17.874 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.71 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 17.83 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.2 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 84, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 84
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 127 PA | K% 20.5% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .231 | OPS .599
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 18.7%, L7 19.9%, season 19.5%, BVP 20.5%/127 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.1%, split 6.6%, L7 6.6%, season 7.3%, BVP 2.4%/127 PA (adj 0.84x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.30 | Season Avg 17.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -1.20 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Drew Rasmussen Under 17.5 (+115) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +115

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	17.5	-145	+109	-
DK	17.5	-153	+115	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 17.137999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.13 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 84)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 84
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 46 PA | K% 26.1% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .222 | OPS .706
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 18.5%, L7 21.7%, season 22.9%, BVP 26.1%/46 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.3%, L7 11.6%, season 8.8%, BVP 2.2%/46 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 16.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shane Baz Under 17.5 (-102) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	17.5	-129	-104	-
DK	17.5	-130	-102	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-150	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.2 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .158 | OPS .501
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.8%, L7 25.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 6.9%, L7 10.8%, season 8.6%, BVP 9.5%/21 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.10 | Season Avg 17.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 200 play(s) (B 10 | C 189 | D 1)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nicky Lopez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 377.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 377.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.454 (84 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 85/112 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/56 over 0.5 (79%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 41/56 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 85/112 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.90

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 377% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-140) diff 255.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.78 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 255.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/56 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 77/109 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.78

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 255% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 0.5 (-185) diff 236.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-185	+140	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 236.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.575 (23 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/110 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/52 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 36/58 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 67/110 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.55

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 236% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 (-120) diff 211.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Evan Carter Over 0.5 (-165) diff 211.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 0.5 (-130) diff 211.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colton Cowser Over 0.5 (-120) diff 211.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leody Taveras Over 0.5 (-180) diff 211.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 (-180) diff 211.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 0.5 (-190) diff 208.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.323 (32 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/106 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/51 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 68/106 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.58

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 392.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 392.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.846 (45 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.917 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/114 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 49/59 over 0.5 (83%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 81/114 over 0.5 (71%), avg 2.32

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 392% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 0.5 (-180) diff 330.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 330.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.276 (42 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/105 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 34/52 over 0.5 (65%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 64/105 over 0.5 (61%), avg 2.05

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 330% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Lowe Over 0.5 (-120) diff 292.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.96 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 292.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.268 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 38/53 over 0.5 (72%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 73/108 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.93

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 292% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 0.5 (-190) diff 255.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.78 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 255.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/56 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 77/109 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.78

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 255% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 0.5 (-165) diff 243.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 243.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.293 (38 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/112 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/58 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 70/112 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.71

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 243% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 0.5 (-180) diff 234.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 234.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.573 (52 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/101 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 30/54 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 60/101 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.72

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 235% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Over 0.5 (-150) diff 222.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 0.5 (-140) diff 222.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Kepler Over 0.5 (-140) diff 222.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-130) diff 222.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Endy Rodriguez Over 0.5 (-180) diff 220.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.590 (42 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/105 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/54 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 74/105 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.65

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 (-160) diff 218.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.549 (39 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/108 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 62/108 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.68

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 (-165) diff 218.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.549 (39 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/108 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 62/108 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.68

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 (-150) diff 218.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ali Sanchez Over 0.5 (-120) diff 218.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 (-140) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Kreidler Over 0.5 (-120) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Martin Over 0.5 (-190) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Caratini Over 0.5 (-165) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cooper Pratt Over 0.5 (-180) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willi Castro Over 0.5 (-165) diff 216.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.252 (65 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 63/97 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/49 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 63/97 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.52

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 0.5 (-180) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 (-165) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy (2002) Over 0.5 (-140) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alika Williams Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Connor Wong Over 0.5 (-180) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Triolo Over 0.5 (-165) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Robert Jr. Over 0.5 (-180) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 (-140) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jhostynxon Garcia Over 0.5 (-140) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Flores Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (-150) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (-140) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 (-160) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 (+100) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (-165) diff 212.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.286 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/84 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/44 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 24/40 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 50/84 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.45

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joe Mack Over 0.5 (-140) diff 209.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 0.5 (-160) diff 209.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis d'Arnaud Over 0.5 (-120) diff 209.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Denzer Guzman Over 0.5 (-165) diff 209.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 0.5 (-190) diff 209.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (-160) diff 209.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Owen Caissie Over 0.5 (-140) diff 209.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 0.5 (-180) diff 209.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brendan Donovan Over 0.5 (-160) diff 209.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 0.5 (-180) diff 209.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-130) diff 209.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Emerson Over 0.5 (-120) diff 209.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 0.5 (-140) diff 209.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Walls Over 0.5 (+100) diff 209.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Richie Palacios Over 0.5 (+110) diff 209.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Hedges Over 0.5 (-140) diff 205.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 (-160) diff 205.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Romo Over 0.5 (-120) diff 205.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 (-180) diff 202.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/53 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 40/55 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 73/108 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.68

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 0.5 (-180) diff 202.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 0.5 (-190) diff 202.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 0.5 (-180) diff 202.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Myles Straw Over 0.5 (-130) diff 202.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 (-120) diff 202.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 0.5 (-190) diff 199.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.676 (36 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/111 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 72/111 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 199.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 199% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Over 0.5 (-165) diff 183.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 183.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.232 (20 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/103 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/50 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 36/53 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 66/103 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 183.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 183.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 (-180) diff 183.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 183.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.285 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/113 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/58 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 68/113 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 183.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 183.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 183% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (-160) diff 182.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 182.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.508 (34 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/104 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/55 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 54/104 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 182.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 182.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 183% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 (-165) diff 180.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 180.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.298 (63 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/53 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 68/109 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 180.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 180.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 181% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Over 0.5 (-180) diff 179.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.289 (39 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/55 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 31/55 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 73/110 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 179.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 179% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 (-145) diff 174.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-145	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 174.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/113 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 68/113 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 174.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 174.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 175% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 0.5 (-180) diff 173.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 173.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 82/113 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/58 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 40/55 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 82/113 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 173.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 173.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 173% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 0.5 (-165) diff 172.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 172.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.303 (60 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 36/57 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 67/111 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 172.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 172.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 172% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-160) diff 170.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 170.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/116 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/59 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 77/116 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 170.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 170.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 171% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Troy Johnston Over 0.5 (-165) diff 159.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 159.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.296 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 62/100 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/52 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 28/48 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 62/100 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 159.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 159.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 160% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (-160) diff 158.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 158.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.204 (11 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/107 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/50 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 64/107 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 158.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 158.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 158% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 0.5 (-180) diff 156.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 156.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.352 (10 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .545
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 56/85 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/48 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 25/37 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 56/85 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 156.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 156.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 156% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-165) diff 152.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 152.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.257 (12 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 3 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/97 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 50/97 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 152.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 152.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 153% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (-165) diff 150.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 150.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.279 (58 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/112 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 35/57 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 65/112 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 150.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 150.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 151% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Over 0.5 (-180) diff 148.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 148.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 41/54 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 73/108 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 148.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 148.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Over 0.5 (-200) diff 147.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.323 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/107 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/57 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 34/50 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 73/107 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 147.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 (-165) diff 145.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 145.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.434 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/106 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 30/51 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter TB: 55/106 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 145.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 145.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 (-220) diff 143.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -220

Selected market: Over 65.0% / Under 35.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -220 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 143.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.288 (57 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/111 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/54 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 78/111 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 143.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 143.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (-160) diff 138.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 138.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.00
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.229 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 30/56 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 55/111 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 138.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 138.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 0.5 (-200) diff 137.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 137.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.301 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/110 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 39/54 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 75/110 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 137.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 137.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 (-130) diff 133.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 133.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.492 (12 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/99 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/50 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 26/49 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 54/99 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 133.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 133.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 (-130) diff 133.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 133.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.298 (58 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/51 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 53/107 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 133.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 133.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (-180) diff 124.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 124.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/87 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/42 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 47/87 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 124.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 124.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-130) diff 123.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 123.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.271 (34 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/114 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/62 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 35/52 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 72/114 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 123.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 123.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (-150) diff 118.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 118.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.237 (35 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/110 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/52 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 34/58 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 61/110 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 118.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 118.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (-140) diff 111.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 111.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/114 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/58 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter TB: 60/114 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 111.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 111.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 (-130) diff 79.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.315 (12 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 16 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 18.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .598
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/110 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/55 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 27/55 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter TB: 56/110 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 79.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 79.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-119) diff 67.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.476 (53 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.07 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter TB: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 67.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 67.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (+100) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.846 (45 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.917 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/114 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 55/114 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 64.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 64.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+103) diff 59.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.454 (84 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 55/112 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 55/112 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+107) diff 54.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.474 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 37 PA | 10/32 | HR 2 | K% 21.6% | BB% 13.5% | OPS 1.062
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 37 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 32/56 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter TB: 52/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 54.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 54.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+100) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.489 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/111 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 51/111 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+110) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.505 (48 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 33/91 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/43 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 18/48 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 33/91 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (+111) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.31x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.614 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 49 PA | 17/41 | HR 1 | K% 12.2% | BB% 16.3% | OPS 1.096
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 49 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/105 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/52 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 40/105 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+109) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.397 (80 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 47/114 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 21/59 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 47/114 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (+113) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.512 (18 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 28.6% | OPS 1.171 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/114 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 55/114 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+110) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.430 (77 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/114 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter TB: 55/114 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+100) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.376 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 32/81 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/42 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 19/39 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 32/81 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+112) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.268 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/108 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 49/108 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-180) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.279 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 19 PA | 3/17 | HR 1 | K% 15.8% | BB% 5.3% | OPS .622
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/108 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 69/108 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+107) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.581 (50 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/105 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 46/105 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+112) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.370 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 47/110 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.23 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 47/110 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+117) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.247 (25 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/110 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 29/62 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 49/110 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+125) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.624 (35 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/109 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 48/109 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+116) diff 25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.594 (67 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/112 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 47/112 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Under 1.5 (-174) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.200 (16 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 67/95 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/41 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 42/54 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 67/95 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-190) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+152	-209	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.08
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.141 (13 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 71/106 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 71/106 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+120) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.456 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/109 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 46/109 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+113) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 53/108 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+126) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.298 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/100 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 16/49 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 46/100 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (+127) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 52/110 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 52/110 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-104) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.354 (52 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 54/110 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 54/110 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+130) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.318 (34 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/98 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 45/98 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (+116) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/109 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 50/109 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+129) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.422 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/115 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter TB: 61/115 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+127) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.215 (23 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .310 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/107 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter TB: 42/107 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-115) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.465 (77 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/112 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 43/112 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (+112) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+112	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 40/116 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 18/59 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 40/116 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+137) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.353 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/112 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 43/112 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+140) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.232 (17 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 22 PA | 10/17 | HR 2 | K% 4.5% | BB% 13.6% | OPS 1.858
BVP production adjustment: 1.13x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 34/91 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/47 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 16/44 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 34/91 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-168) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.249 (31 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 69/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 69/107 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-196) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -196

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 75/111 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+115) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.383 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/117 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 22/60 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 45/117 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+114) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.426 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/113 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 42/113 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+120) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .722
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/113 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 44/113 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+134) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 13 PA | 7/13 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.154
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/114 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/62 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 41/114 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+142) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.212 (40 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 43/112 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 43/112 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Under 1.5 (-149) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.356 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/107 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/52 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 75/107 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+116) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.248 (45 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/116 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 48/116 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+146) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.403 (33 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 44/111 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 44/111 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+120) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/109 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 41/109 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+129) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.313 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.583 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/115 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/62 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 46/115 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Under 1.5 (-190) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/116 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/59 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 75/116 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (+110) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.358 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/114 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 46/114 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Under 1.5 (-200) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 1.5 -190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+149	-200	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.344 (91 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/115 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/59 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 67/115 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+144) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.501 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/109 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 50/109 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (+125) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+112) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+112	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+138) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+125) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+131) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+145) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.590 (42 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/105 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 39/105 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (+100) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.283 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Noah Schultz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 38/114 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/60 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 38/114 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (+100) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.398 (19 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 31/84 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/43 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 15/41 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 31/84 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+122) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.410 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/111 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 51/111 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+130) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (67 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/113 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 45/113 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+126) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+140) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+141) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.336 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/111 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 39/111 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/113 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 41/113 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+135) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.197 (24 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 35/96 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/48 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 35/96 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 1.5 (+120) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.353 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/106 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 46/106 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (+130) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+126) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+119) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (+123) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+137) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (+121) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.4% / Under 57.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+121	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Blaze Jordan Over 1.5 (+154) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +154

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+154	-207	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 1.5 (+150) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 1.5 (+125) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+123) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+113) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+115) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+131) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+120) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Under 1.5 (-169) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -169 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.286 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/95 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 26/44 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 55/95 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (+133) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +133 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +133 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (+135) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+131) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+135) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (+140) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+132) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+145) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (+132) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.287 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 11 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 27.3% | OPS .489
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 32/108 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/54 over 1.5 (24%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 19/54 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 32/108 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (+130) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/114 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/59 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 39/114 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+142) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +142 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.391 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 47/111 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 47/111 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Under 1.5 (-189) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+142	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/92 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/50 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 26/42 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 54/92 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (+130) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randal Grichuk Over 1.5 (+130) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+132) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.498 (38 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Payton Tolle: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/103 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 45/103 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-166) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.296 (15 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/115 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 76/115 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Kyle Karros Over 0.5 (-190) diff 183.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.6% / Under 38.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-190	+145	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 183.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.449 (33 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/107 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 29/54 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 63/107 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 183.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 183% (≥150%) — verify projection

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Run Line — Kansas City Royals +1.5 1.5 (-118) edge 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Kansas City Royals 1.5 -117 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -118

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Kansas City Royals 1.5 -117 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (27)

[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: -0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+26.86/$100
✓ Cover prob 68.7% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 16.9% ≥ 5%
✓ Kansas City Royals home RL 71% (7 bets)
✓ L5 RL 5/5
✓ Odds -118 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Home SP: Daniel Lynch IV (LHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs LHP (neutral)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.98)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 98)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 105)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 51%, bullpen 49%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 40% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: selected book disagrees | books against us 40% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zach Thornton Under 5.5 (-115) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, L7 25.7%, season 22.7% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jack Perkins Under 5.5 (+116) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +116

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-155	+115	-
DK	5.5	-154	+116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.11 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.47, BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 21 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 19.1% | AVG .118 | OPS .639
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 23.0%, L7 18.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 14.3%/21 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 24/27 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 2.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +2.02 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 (+111) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.04 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.28, BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 43 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .447 | OPS 1.094
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 24.2%, L7 29.0%, season 24.4%, BVP 23.3%/43 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 5.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (-120) Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.04 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.40, BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .158 | OPS .501
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.8%, L7 25.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/22 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Feltner Under 5.5 (-130) Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -130

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.25 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.64, BB% 9.0%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 21 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .429
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 19.7%, L7 22.6%, season 20.5%, BVP 28.6%/21 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Leahy Under 2.5 (-162) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+121	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.78 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.99, ERA 2.72)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 18 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .118 | OPS .402
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 21.8%, L7 23.0%, season 22.8%, BVP 38.9%/18 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Keider Montero Under 2.5 (-150) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.89 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.55, ERA 3.24)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.9%, L7 19.2%, season 20.9% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Drew Rasmussen Over 1.5 (-155) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.02 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.13, ERA 3.53)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 46 PA | K% 26.1% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .222 | OPS .706
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 18.5%, L7 21.7%, season 22.9%, BVP 26.1%/46 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zach Thornton Under 2.5 (-120) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, L7 25.7%, season 22.7% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Noah Schultz Over 2.5 (-115) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.60 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.84, ERA 5.67)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Schultz: 2 PA | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 17.1%, L7 21.5%, season 22.3% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/14 (64%) | Season 9/14 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — George Klassen Over 2.5 (-126) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-126	-105	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.49 over 3.5 IP (xFIP 4.40, ERA 7.54)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.5 IP (HIGH; season 2.3 IP/GS; recent 2.1 IP/2 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 19.0%, L7 19.5%, season 21.6% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/2 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nathan Eovaldi Under 2.5 (-155) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.79 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.27, ERA 4.79)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.2% / under 56.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 43 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .447 | OPS 1.094
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 24.2%, L7 29.0%, season 24.4%, BVP 23.3%/43 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Baz Under 2.5 (-115) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.98 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.46)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .158 | OPS .501
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.8%, L7 25.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Roki Sasaki Under 2.5 (-165) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.10, ERA 4.45)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.8% / under 57.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Roki Sasaki: 22 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 13.6% | AVG .263 | OPS .943
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 18.4%, L7 19.3%, season 19.3%, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ronel Blanco Under 2.5 (-155) Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.01 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 5.95)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Ronel Blanco: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .182
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 21.2%, L7 19.3%, season 22.0% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 0/3 (0%) | L10 0/3 (0%) | L20 0/3 (0%) | Season 0/3 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 0/3 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 16 play(s) (C 16)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake Mangum Under 1.5 (-221) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -221

Selected market: Over 35.5% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+164	-221	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Tommy Edman Under 1.5 (-268) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -268 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -268

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -268 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+197	-268	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Wilyer Abreu Under 1.5 (-270) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -270

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -270 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+198	-270	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.97 (AVG 0.253)
Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.324 (77 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/40 (25%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/112 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/57 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter Hits: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 81/112 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — JJ Wetherholt Under 1.5 (-260) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -260

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.96 (AVG 0.248)
Base projection 0.96 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.289 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 6/36 (17%) | L5 2/16 (12%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 78/109 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-250) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 1.5 -250; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+184	-250	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.252)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.319 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/43 (33%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 83/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/58 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 83/113 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 1.5 (-210) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -210

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -210 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+157	-210	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.287)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.250 (52 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 16/44 (36%) | L5 7/22 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/110 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/57 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter Hits: 77/110 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-264) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -264

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+194	-264	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.293)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.233 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/45 (22%) | L5 8/23 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/100 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter Hits: 39/49 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Hits: 71/100 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-257) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -257 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -257

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -257 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+190	-257	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.17 (AVG 0.300)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.440 (12 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/39 (26%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter Hits: 38/53 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 74/109 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-250) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.15 (AVG 0.277)
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.276 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/40 (28%) | L5 6/17 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 57/81 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/42 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 25/39 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter Hits: 57/81 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jordan Walker Under 1.5 (-250) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.285)
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/43 (26%) | L5 8/24 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/111 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 36/52 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter Hits: 78/111 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-274) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -274 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -274

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -274 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+201	-274	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.17 (AVG 0.309)
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.329 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/40 (25%) | L5 3/18 (17%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 31/57 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter Hits: 66/111 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-257) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -257

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+190	-257	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.288)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.274 (57 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/32 (28%) | L5 3/15 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/116 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/57 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 44/59 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 85/116 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 (-245) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -245

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+181	-245	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.297)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.392 (53 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 16/40 (40%) | L5 8/19 (42%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/105 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 33/56 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter Hits: 69/105 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-207) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -207 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -207

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -207 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+154	-207	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.31 (AVG 0.326)
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.300 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/43 (33%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/108 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 28/52 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter Hits: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 65/108 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Freddie Freeman Under 1.5 (-266) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -266

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+196	-266	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.17 (AVG 0.310)
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.354 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 37 PA | 10/32 | HR 2 | K% 21.6% | BB% 13.5% | OPS 1.062
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 37 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 16/38 (42%) | L5 7/17 (41%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/112 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/56 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 32/56 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter Hits: 73/112 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+179) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +179 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +179

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +179 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+179	-242	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.28 (AVG 0.318)
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.328 (84 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/43 (23%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 44/112 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter Hits: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 44/112 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 192 play(s) (C 192)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (+100) diff 87.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.94 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.80
Base projection 0.80 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/96 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/48 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter Walks: 27/48 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter Walks: 52/96 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.80

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (+185) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +185

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Base projection 0.71 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.917 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 59/114 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 59/114 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.71

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.5% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (+130) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Base projection 0.71 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.917 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 59/114 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 59/114 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.71

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (+110) diff 63.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.82 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/116 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/59 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 57/116 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-280) diff 50.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 13 PA | 7/13 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.154
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 77/114 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-450) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 84/107 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 84/107 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-425) diff 49.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/106 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 83/106 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-375) diff 48.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/108 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 87/108 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-280) diff 48.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/111 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 91/111 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-375) diff 48.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/113 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 78/113 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-500) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/105 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 79/105 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-340) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/107 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 78/107 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-245) diff 46.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/111 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 82/111 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-375) diff 45.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 19 PA | 3/17 | HR 1 | K% 15.8% | BB% 5.3% | OPS .622
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 72/108 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.43

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-265) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .545
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/85 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/48 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 24/37 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 54/85 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-330) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/107 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 84/107 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-450) diff 44.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/110 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 81/110 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-350) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-300) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-525) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-425) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-375) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-320) diff 42.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/114 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 82/114 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-450) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/114 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/58 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 83/114 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-240) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/111 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 73/111 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-310) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/97 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 71/97 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-350) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/113 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 86/113 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-340) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/107 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 73/107 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-400) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/108 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 71/108 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-375) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/108 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 71/108 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-300) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/103 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 32/53 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 68/103 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-210) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-310) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-320) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-350) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 58/81 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/42 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 32/39 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 58/81 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-330) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/108 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 71/108 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nelson Velazquez Under 0.5 (-350) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-525) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-195) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-450) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-265) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-500) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-425) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-180) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 72/115 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 72/115 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 (+155) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 34/84 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/43 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 15/41 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 34/84 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.56

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-425) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/105 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 74/105 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-350) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-350) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-500) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-425) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-310) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-170) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-270) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy (2002) Under 0.5 (-400) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (-125) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/112 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 25/57 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 50/112 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.62

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-230) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-185) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-425) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-230) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-230) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-170) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-475) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-475) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-525) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-320) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/111 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 83/111 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-270) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 76/111 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-255) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/106 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 74/106 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-500) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-475) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-255) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-425) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-270) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-525) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 (-130) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.533 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 26/56 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Walks: 50/105 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.64

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-330) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-280) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-155) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-320) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-300) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 (-280) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-225) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-350) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/113 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 86/113 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-155) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-350) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-280) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-400) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-310) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-245) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Flores Under 0.5 (-280) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-255) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 77/109 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-425) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/113 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 86/113 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-525) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 72/109 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-375) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 72/109 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-310) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-300) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-350) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-195) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-245) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-300) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-230) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/110 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/110 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-240) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-350) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-270) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-400) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-310) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-140) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-450) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-400) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-240) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-550) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-400) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-185) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-170) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brenton Doyle Under 0.5 (-450) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-550) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-350) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/111 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 80/111 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Over 0.5 (+150) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/106 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/53 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 16/53 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 43/106 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.53

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-340) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/112 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 73/112 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Franklin Under 0.5 (-475) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-500) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-195) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-255) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-280) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-200) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-230) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-210) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-330) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-215) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-400) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — John Rave Under 0.5 (-350) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-375) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (+120) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 11 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 27.3% | OPS .489
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/108 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/54 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 23/54 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 44/108 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.51

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-425) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-300) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-375) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-225) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-450) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-170) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-350) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-245) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-270) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/114 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/60 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 76/114 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-320) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/111 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 32/55 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 69/111 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-280) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.583 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/115 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 33/53 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 70/115 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-300) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/114 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 80/114 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (+155) diff 25.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 30/84 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/44 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 13/40 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 30/84 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Over 0.5 (+120) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 37/95 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/41 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 20/54 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 37/95 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-255) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 72/108 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-330) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 72/108 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-210) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 73/108 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-210) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/114 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 84/114 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-320) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/53 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 78/109 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-300) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/107 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 66/107 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-210) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/104 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 29/49 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 65/104 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-375) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 28.6% | OPS 1.171 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/114 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/59 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 70/114 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-320) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Payton Tolle: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/103 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/48 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 64/103 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-230) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/95 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 30/44 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 68/95 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-245) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/107 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 73/107 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-225) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/104 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 32/53 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 67/104 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-225) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/115 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/59 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 73/115 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (+115) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/111 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/55 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 21/56 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 47/111 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-230) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/112 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 71/112 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (+140) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.76
Base projection 0.76 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/114 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.76
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/62 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.77 | Away Batter Walks: 28/52 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.75 | Day Batter Walks: 63/114 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-180) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/113 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/59 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 66/113 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 (+130) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 37 PA | 10/32 | HR 2 | K% 21.6% | BB% 13.5% | OPS 1.062
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 37 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 40/112 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/56 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 24/56 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 40/112 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Over 0.5 (+120) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/110 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/48 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 20/62 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 39/110 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (+150) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/117 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 22/60 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 53/117 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-350) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/97 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 25/46 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 61/97 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase DeLauter Over 0.5 (+140) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 38/98 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/54 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 19/44 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 38/98 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-230) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/107 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 73/107 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 (+105) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 45/116 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/57 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 28/59 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 45/116 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-195) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 74/114 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 74/114 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy Over 0.5 (-105) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 49 PA | 17/41 | HR 1 | K% 12.2% | BB% 16.3% | OPS 1.096
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 49 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/105 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 15/52 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 26/53 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 41/105 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-200) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 75/112 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-240) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 63/105 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/54 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 63/105 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-320) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/92 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/50 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 26/42 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 57/92 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-230) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/110 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 76/110 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-200) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/116 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/59 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 72/116 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-195) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/91 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/43 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 31/48 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 59/91 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 (+135) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/112 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/55 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 23/57 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 47/112 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 (+130) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/109 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/57 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 21/52 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 41/109 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-125) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/99 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/51 under 0.5 (49%), avg 0.69 | Away Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 59/99 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (+150) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/110 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 14/52 over 0.5 (27%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 28/58 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 42/110 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Over 0.5 (+100) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 43/109 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/55 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 27/54 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 43/109 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-140) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/112 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/57 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 31/55 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 57/112 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (+110) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/109 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/58 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 22/51 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 49/109 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 (+155) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .722
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 49/113 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 24/58 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 49/113 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-165) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/102 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 26/50 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 60/102 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (+160) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/113 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/55 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 22/58 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 43/113 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Over 0.5 (+215) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +215 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +215

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 40/112 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/55 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 24/57 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 40/112 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 29.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-265) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 74/114 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 74/114 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Over 0.5 (+200) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.49x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 22 PA | 10/17 | HR 2 | K% 4.5% | BB% 13.6% | OPS 1.858
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 1/20 (5%) | Season 26/91 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/47 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 9/44 over 0.5 (20%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 26/91 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 30.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (+140) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 53/115 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 26/56 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.66 | Day Batter Walks: 53/115 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 82 play(s) (C 82)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+131) diff 85.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 85.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.62
Base projection 2.62 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.532, xSLG 0.846 (45 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.917 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 63/114 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/59 over 1.5 (70%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 63/114 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.62

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (1 books)

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (-146) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.419, xSLG 0.614 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 49 PA | 17/41 | HR 1 | K% 12.2% | BB% 16.3% | OPS 1.096
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 49 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/105 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 48/105 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 66.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 66.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-133) diff 58.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.216, xSLG 0.268 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/108 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 57/108 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-138) diff 57.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.372, xSLG 0.505 (48 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/91 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 41/91 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (+100) diff 55.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.224, xSLG 0.276 (42 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/105 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 52/105 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-122) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.298 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/100 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.71 | Away Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 51/100 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-133) diff 53.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.4% / Under 46.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.353, xSLG 0.383 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/117 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/57 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 66/117 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (-134) diff 52.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.410 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/111 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 36/57 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 63/111 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-162) diff 50.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.274, xSLG 0.342 (57 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 61/116 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 61/116 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-155) diff 49.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.368, xSLG 0.581 (50 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/105 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 54/105 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-131) diff 48.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.287 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 11 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 27.3% | OPS .489
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 54/108 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (-112) diff 41.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.353 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 57/112 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 57/112 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (+118) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.205, xSLG 0.252 (65 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 54/97 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/49 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 54/97 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-109) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.313 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.583 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/115 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 61/115 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-114) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.275, xSLG 0.296 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/115 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 59/115 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-109) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.192, xSLG 0.212 (40 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/112 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 32/57 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 57/112 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (-106) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.336 (25 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/111 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 50/111 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-103) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.394 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 13 PA | 7/13 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.154
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/114 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 55/114 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-110) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.167, xSLG 0.197 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/96 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 46/96 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Endy Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-101) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.410, xSLG 0.590 (42 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/105 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 60/105 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+115) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.258, xSLG 0.286 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 41/84 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 20/40 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 41/84 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+100) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.501 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/109 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 56/109 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Over 1.5 (+103) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.449 (33 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/107 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 48/107 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (-118) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.250, xSLG 0.286 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/95 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 24/44 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 50/95 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 (+109) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.96 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.41
Base projection 2.41 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.392, xSLG 0.476 (53 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/49 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 30/56 over 2.5 (54%), avg 2.71 | Day Batter HRR: 50/105 over 2.5 (48%), avg 2.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Under 2.5 (-154) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.06 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.465 (77 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/57 under 2.5 (68%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 36/55 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 75/112 under 2.5 (67%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Troy Johnston Over 1.5 (+121) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.266, xSLG 0.296 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 48/100 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 48/100 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (-137) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.261, xSLG 0.356 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/107 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 49/107 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+108) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.380, xSLG 0.498 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Payton Tolle: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 54/103 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 2.5 (-162) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.11 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 15.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.250, xSLG 0.354 (52 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 69/110 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/57 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 34/53 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 69/110 under 2.5 (63%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (-141) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.232, xSLG 0.249 (31 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/107 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.18 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 48/107 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-110) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.279 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/112 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 50/112 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-140) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 49/111 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 49/111 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Young Over 1.5 (+131) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/116 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 56/116 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jakob Marsee Over 1.5 (+105) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.200, xSLG 0.229 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 40/111 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/55 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter HRR: 40/111 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+124) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/113 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/58 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 59/113 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-147) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-135) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (-124) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Feduccia Over 1.5 (+131) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (+110) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (-110) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Osleivis Basabe Over 1.5 (+100) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcus Semien Over 1.5 (+130) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.56
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.246, xSLG 0.257 (12 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 3 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 35/97 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/49 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 35/97 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (+107) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.260, xSLG 0.279 (14 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 19 PA | 3/17 | HR 1 | K% 15.8% | BB% 5.3% | OPS .622
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/108 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 50/108 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (-143) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (-141) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (-125) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-114) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Connor Wong Over 1.5 (-101) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+110) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+114) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+122) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (+134) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (-118) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (-114) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Church Over 1.5 (-110) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (-157) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-157	+118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-170	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (-122) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (-122) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (-112) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 (+109) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Triolo Over 1.5 (+113) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Polanco Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Flores Over 1.5 (+133) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (-104) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (+116) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (+117) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leody Taveras Over 1.5 (+118) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (-122) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (-113) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (-112) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Griffin Conine Over 1.5 (+100) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Moises Ballesteros Over 1.5 (+107) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joe Mack Over 1.5 (+109) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 (+113) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Owen Caissie Over 1.5 (+116) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (+121) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Tovar Over 1.5 (+120) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.268, xSLG 0.434 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 35/106 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/55 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 35/106 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (+107) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.352 (10 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .545
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 44/85 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 15/37 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 44/85 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Under 1.5 (-152) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Under 1.5 (-153) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Total — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-117) edge 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 7.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -117

Own-line consensus: 7 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books | 8 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 7.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is LowVig Over 8 +103; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	7.5	-120	-	-
DK	7.5	-117	-	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	7.5	-120	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-120	-	-
BetMGM	8	+100	-	-
BetOnline	8	+100	-	-
BetRivers	8	-104	-	-
LowVig	8	+103	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[INJ] Zebby Matthews (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Jack Anderson (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Garrett Acton (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Shane Drohan (LHP) | opp wRC+ 93 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Zebby Matthews (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 102)
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 35% (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-107) edge 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 6.5 -145 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7 -107

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7 at 9 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 6.5 -145 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 7 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	-145	-	Recommended
BetMGM	7	-110	-	-
BetOnline	7	-105	-	-
BetRivers	7	-112	-	-
BetUS	7	-105	-	-
Bovada Direct	7	+100	-	Raw BestVerify
DK	7	-107	-	Selected
FanDuel	7	-112	-	-
LowVig	7	-102	-	-
MyBookie	7	-107	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.2 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Logan Gilbert (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Drew Rasmussen (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.2
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Logan Gilbert elite xFIP (3.47)
Drew Rasmussen elite xFIP (3.13)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-113) edge 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 8 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8 -113

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 8 at 7 books | 8.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 8 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 8.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8	-110	-	Recommended
BetOnline	8	-115	-	-
BetRivers	8	-115	-	-
BetUS	8	-115	-	-
DK	8	-113	-	Selected
LowVig	8	-113	-	-
MyBookie	8	-115	-	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	+100	-	-
FanDuel	8.5	-102	-	-
theScore Bet	8.5	+105	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Max Fried (LHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Tyler Mahle (RHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs RHP (tough)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 35% (team 100)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-146) edge 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins (F5) | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-146	Selected

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[INJ] George Klassen (Los Angeles Angels) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Fabian Soto (Los Angeles Angels) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
loanDepot park (NEUTRAL)
Tyler Phillips xFIP 4.58
George Klassen xFIP 4.40
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 101)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Tyler Phillips (RHP)
Away SP: George Klassen (RHP)

▸ F5 ML — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Athletics (+190) edge 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (F5) | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +190 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +190

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Fenway Park (HITTER)
Payton Tolle xFIP 3.78
Jack Perkins xFIP 4.12
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 100)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP)
Away SP: Jack Perkins (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Toronto Blue Jays (+194) edge 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +194 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +194

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +194 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Zack Wheeler xFIP 2.71
José Soriano xFIP 3.71
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 98)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 50% (team 94)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.1
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.02
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Zack Wheeler (RHP)
Away SP: José Soriano (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Los Angeles Angels (+126) edge 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins (F5) | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +126 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +126

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[INJ] George Klassen (Los Angeles Angels) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Fabian Soto (Los Angeles Angels) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
loanDepot park (NEUTRAL)
Tyler Phillips xFIP 4.58
George Klassen xFIP 4.40
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 101)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Tyler Phillips (RHP)
Away SP: George Klassen (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Moneyline — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Moneyline — Athletics (+222) edge 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +227 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +222

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +227 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Underdog ML value — Athletics at +222 with 18.1% edge (EV $+54.04/$100)
Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Jack Perkins (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.4
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 66.8% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 20.1% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds +104 within price guard (-160 floor)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

▸ Batter HR — 209 play(s) (C 209)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 98.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0094
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.141 (13 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 105/106 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/53 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 53/53 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 105/106 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-20000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -20000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -20000

Selected market: Over 4.6% / Under 95.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 95.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -20000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.323 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 107/107 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/57 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 50/50 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 107/107 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0300
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.296 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 97/100 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/52 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/48 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 97/100 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randal Grichuk Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brenton Doyle Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luisangel Acuna Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 86.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 86.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Flores Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jhostynxon Garcia Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alika Williams Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.8% / Under 84.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy (2002) Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sean Murphy Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ali Sanchez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0374
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 103/107 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 103/107 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 91.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0556
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.279 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 19 PA | 3/17 | HR 1 | K% 15.8% | BB% 5.3% | OPS .622
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/108 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/54 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 102/108 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 90.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 6.3% / Under 93.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0463
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/108 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/52 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 103/108 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 90.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0561
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.304 (64 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/107 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 101/107 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0636
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.315 (12 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 16 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 18.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .598
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 104/110 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 104/110 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 89.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0614
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.271 (34 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 107/114 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/62 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 107/114 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 88.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0541
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.410 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 105/111 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 105/111 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0517
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 110/116 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 58/59 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 110/116 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0632
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.286 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 89/95 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 41/44 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 89/95 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 87.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0541
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.229 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 105/111 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 105/111 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 86.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0741
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/108 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/108 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 86.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0796
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 104/113 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 104/113 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 86.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0727
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.289 (39 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/110 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 102/110 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 85.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0909
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.301 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 100/110 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 100/110 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0804
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.279 (58 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/112 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 103/112 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0818
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.237 (35 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/110 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/110 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0789
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.358 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 106/114 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 106/114 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0991
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.288 (57 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/111 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 101/111 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 83.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.508 (34 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 96/104 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 96/104 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 82.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0796
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.285 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/113 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 104/113 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0841
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.449 (33 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/107 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 98/107 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0849
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.434 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/106 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 98/106 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 81.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1140
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/114 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/114 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 80.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0957
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.296 (15 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/115 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 106/115 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 80.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1028
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.249 (31 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/107 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 97/107 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 79.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0804
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.454 (84 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 103/112 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/112 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 79.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0804
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.454 (84 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 103/112 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/112 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 78.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 6.3% / Under 93.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1149
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 78/87 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 78/87 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0926
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.287 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 11 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 27.3% | OPS .489
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/108 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 98/108 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1038
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.353 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/106 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 95/106 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-700) diff 78.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1263
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.200 (16 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/95 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/41 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 84/95 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1207
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/116 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 103/116 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1207
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/116 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 103/116 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 77.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1171
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/111 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 99/111 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1140
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.330 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 102/114 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 102/114 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1071
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.286 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 76/84 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/44 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 35/40 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 76/84 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1100
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.298 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/100 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 90/100 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1053
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/114 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/114 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1296
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.1% / Under 83.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1412
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.352 (10 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .545
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 73/85 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 30/37 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 73/85 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 76.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1226
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.323 (32 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/106 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 94/106 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1171
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.336 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/111 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 99/111 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 76.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1261
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.391 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/111 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 98/111 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 75.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1101
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.624 (35 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/109 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 98/109 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1161
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.353 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 99/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1261
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.676 (36 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/111 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 99/111 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1313
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.492 (12 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/99 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 86/99 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 74.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.303 (60 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 96/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-800) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1308
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.298 (58 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 95/107 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 95/107 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 73.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1190
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.398 (19 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 75/84 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 75/84 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 73.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1340
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.257 (12 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 3 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/97 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 84/97 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.354 (52 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 96/110 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 96/110 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 73.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1224
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.318 (34 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/98 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 37/44 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 87/98 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 73.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1456
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.232 (20 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/103 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 89/103 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1282
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.383 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/117 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 103/117 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1652
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.344 (91 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 97/115 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 97/115 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1402
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.356 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/107 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 92/107 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1376
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1376
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1376
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.596 (12 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .732
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1376
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.300 (38 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 72.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1340
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.252 (65 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 85/97 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 85/97 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 71.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1468
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.298 (63 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/109 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 94/109 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 71.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1416
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.426 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 98/113 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 98/113 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 70.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1589
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.204 (11 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/107 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 91/107 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 70.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.403 (33 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-700) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1416
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (67 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 98/113 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 98/113 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-700) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1404
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.283 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Schultz contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Noah Schultz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 100/114 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 100/114 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1650
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.498 (38 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Payton Tolle: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/103 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 88/103 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-750) diff 69.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.594 (67 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/112 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 97/112 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1468
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.456 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1835
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.501 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 91/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Endy Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 68.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1619
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.590 (42 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/105 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 89/105 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1619
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.590 (42 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/105 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 89/105 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 68.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.232 (17 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 22 PA | 10/17 | HR 2 | K% 4.5% | BB% 13.6% | OPS 1.858
BVP production adjustment: 1.13x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/91 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 40/44 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 79/91 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1468
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1579
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 13 PA | 7/13 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.154
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/114 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 97/114 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-800) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1339
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.474 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 37 PA | 10/32 | HR 2 | K% 21.6% | BB% 13.5% | OPS 1.062
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 37 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-750) diff 64.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1579
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.430 (77 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/114 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 98/114 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 64.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1786
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.212 (40 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/112 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 93/112 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-750) diff 64.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1727
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/110 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 92/110 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2174
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/92 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 34/42 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 73/92 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-600) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1786
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.465 (77 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 95/112 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 95/112 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-750) diff 63.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2124
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.251 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/113 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 90/113 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 63.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1881
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.573 (52 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/101 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 84/101 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-750) diff 62.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1875
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.197 (24 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 79/96 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 36/48 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 79/96 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-800) diff 62.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1727
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.575 (23 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/110 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 92/110 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-800) diff 61.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1579
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.397 (80 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/114 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 98/114 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1852
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.376 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 68/81 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/42 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 34/39 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 68/81 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.313 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.583 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/115 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 92/115 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-750) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2069
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.248 (45 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/116 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 93/116 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-700) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1964
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.293 (38 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/112 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 91/112 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-650) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2124
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .722
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/113 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 91/113 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-650) diff 59.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2035
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/113 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 92/113 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2315
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.549 (39 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/108 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 84/108 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-700) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2315
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.549 (39 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/108 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 84/108 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-600) diff 55.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1758
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.472 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.505 (48 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/91 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 78/91 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-700) diff 55.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1982
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.489 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 89/111 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 89/111 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-650) diff 54.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.268 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/108 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 87/108 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 54.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.268 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/108 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 87/108 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-600) diff 54.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2190
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.581 (50 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/105 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 83/105 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-650) diff 53.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 21.6% / Under 78.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2783
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.422 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 86/115 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 86/115 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-425) diff 47.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2818
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.247 (25 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/110 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/48 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 80/110 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-600) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2095
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.31x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.614 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 49 PA | 17/41 | HR 1 | K% 12.2% | BB% 16.3% | OPS 1.096
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 49 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/105 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 88/105 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-400) diff 43.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2895
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.512 (18 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 28.6% | OPS 1.171 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/114 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 85/114 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-375) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2385
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.398 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.476 (53 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/105 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 80/105 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-375) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3000
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.370 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 82/110 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 82/110 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3070
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.846 (45 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.917 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/114 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 84/114 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-425) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3070
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.846 (45 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.917 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/114 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 84/114 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-750) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3143
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.276 (42 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/105 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter HR: 80/105 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

6 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
B	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	8:16 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-104	48.7%	73.0%	+24.3%	$+43.23	8	Bet on DK
C	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-117	51.6%	71.8%	+20.2%	$+33.18	7	Bet on DK
C	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	Moneyline	Athletics	DK	+222	29.7%	47.8%	+18.1%	$+54.04	9	Bet on DK
C	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:46 PM	Total	Over 7.0	DK	-107	49.4%	66.3%	+17.0%	$+28.25	9	Bet on DK
B	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	8:11 PM	Run Line	Kansas City Royals +1.5	FanDuel	-118	51.7%	68.7%	+16.9%	$+26.86	5	Bet on DK
C	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-113	50.6%	66.7%	+16.0%	$+25.66	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (6 play(s))

B Over 8.0 — Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers (Total) +24.3%

[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Model total: 9.8 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Shane Baz (RHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.8
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.08, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 11 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Nathan Eovaldi elite xFIP (3.27)

C Over 7.5 — Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers (Total) +20.2%

[INJ] Zebby Matthews (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Jack Anderson (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Garrett Acton (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Shane Drohan (LHP) | opp wRC+ 93 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Zebby Matthews (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 102)
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 35% (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

C Athletics — Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (Moneyline) +18.1%

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Underdog ML value — Athletics at +222 with 18.1% edge (EV $+54.04/$100)
Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Jack Perkins (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.4
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 66.8% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 20.1% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds +104 within price guard (-160 floor)

C Over 7.0 — Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners (Total) +17.0%

[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.2 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Logan Gilbert (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Drew Rasmussen (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.2
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Logan Gilbert elite xFIP (3.47)
Drew Rasmussen elite xFIP (3.13)

B Kansas City Royals +1.5 — Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals (Run Line) +16.9%

[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: -0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+26.86/$100
✓ Cover prob 68.7% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 16.9% ≥ 5%
✓ Kansas City Royals home RL 71% (7 bets)
✓ L5 RL 5/5
✓ Odds -118 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Home SP: Daniel Lynch IV (LHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs LHP (neutral)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.98)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 98)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 105)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 51%, bullpen 49%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg

C Over 8.0 — Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees (Total) +16.0%

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Max Fried (LHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Tyler Mahle (RHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs RHP (tough)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 35% (team 100)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

F5 BETS — DETAIL

4 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (F5)	7:11 PM	F5 ML	Athletics	FanDuel	+190	32.7%	47.4%	+14.8%	$+37.61	2	Bet on DK
C	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5)	6:41 PM	F5 ML	Toronto Blue Jays	FanDuel	+194	32.3%	42.6%	+10.3%	$+25.25	2	Bet on DK
C	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins (F5)	7:11 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-146	55.7%	63.9%	+8.2%	$+7.70	1	Bet on DK
C	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins (F5)	7:11 PM	F5 ML	Los Angeles Angels	FanDuel	+126	41.9%	50.1%	+8.1%	$+13.15	2	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (4 play(s))

C Athletics — Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (F5) (F5 ML) +14.8%

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Fenway Park (HITTER)
Payton Tolle xFIP 3.78
Jack Perkins xFIP 4.12
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 100)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP)
Away SP: Jack Perkins (RHP)

C Toronto Blue Jays — Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) (F5 ML) +10.3%

[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Zack Wheeler xFIP 2.71
José Soriano xFIP 3.71
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 98)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 50% (team 94)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.1
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.02
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Zack Wheeler (RHP)
Away SP: José Soriano (RHP)

C Under 5.5 — Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins (F5) (F5 Total) +8.2%

[INJ] George Klassen (Los Angeles Angels) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Fabian Soto (Los Angeles Angels) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
loanDepot park (NEUTRAL)
Tyler Phillips xFIP 4.58
George Klassen xFIP 4.40
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 101)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Tyler Phillips (RHP)
Away SP: George Klassen (RHP)

C Los Angeles Angels — Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins (F5) (F5 ML) +8.1%

[INJ] George Klassen (Los Angeles Angels) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Fabian Soto (Los Angeles Angels) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
loanDepot park (NEUTRAL)
Tyler Phillips xFIP 4.58
George Klassen xFIP 4.40
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 101)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Tyler Phillips (RHP)
Away SP: George Klassen (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates

6:41 PM · decision fi-9c6519be7e68122d

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.8% / YRFI 50.2%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Zac Thornton · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Carmen Mlodzinski · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T08:16:09.078941Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.498
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Zac Thornton / Carmen Mlodzinski announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.498

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSZac Thornton / Carmen Mlodzinski announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies

6:41 PM · decision fi-4b9eb7c69cebcab2

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.2% / YRFI 48.8%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: José Soriano · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Zack Wheeler · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T08:16:09.078941Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.512
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
José Soriano / Zack Wheeler announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.512

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJosé Soriano / Zack Wheeler announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-118	-113	50.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-132	+104	53.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees

7:06 PM · decision fi-7c77bc2fb3243e1a

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.9% / YRFI 49.1%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Tyler Mahle · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Max Fried · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T08:16:09.078941Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.509
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Tyler Mahle / Max Fried announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.509

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSTyler Mahle / Max Fried announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5

Athletics @ Boston Red Sox

7:11 PM · decision fi-34fd709e44fbc25b

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.0% / YRFI 50.0%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Jack Perkins · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Payton Tolle · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T08:16:09.078941Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.500
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Jack Perkins / Payton Tolle announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.500

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJack Perkins / Payton Tolle announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-122	-109	51.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-122	-104	51.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins

7:11 PM · decision fi-2ae2306bd505a7ae

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 48.8% / YRFI 51.2%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: George Klassen · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Tyler Phillips · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T08:16:09.078941Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.488
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
George Klassen / Tyler Phillips announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.488

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSGeorge Klassen / Tyler Phillips announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-104	-129	47.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-102	-125	47.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

7:41 PM · decision fi-e41a5e666634e67f

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.7% / YRFI 48.3%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Parker Messick · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Noah Schultz · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T08:16:09.078941Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.517
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Parker Messick / Noah Schultz announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.517

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSParker Messick / Noah Schultz announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-122	-104	51.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers

7:41 PM · decision fi-1032ad16f0173b40

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.4% / YRFI 49.6%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Zebby Matthews · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Shane Drohan · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T08:16:09.078941Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.504
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Zebby Matthews / Shane Drohan announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.504

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSZebby Matthews / Shane Drohan announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-137	+104	54.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-138	+108	54.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED

Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals

8:11 PM · decision fi-0e6817dcde8d1ab1

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Home starter: Daniel Lynch IV · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T08:19:17.357108Z

both starters must be officially announced

1 accepted paired book(s). both starters must be officially announced

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusboth starters must be officially announced

Book shop (1 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
Caesars	+105	-135	45.9%	ACCEPTED

Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers

8:16 PM · decision fi-44554d696edb9672

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.8% / YRFI 50.2%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Shane Baz · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Nathan Eovaldi · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T08:16:09.078941Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.498
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Shane Baz / Nathan Eovaldi announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.498

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSShane Baz / Nathan Eovaldi announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals

8:16 PM · decision fi-9417b92b3c5645a4

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.7% / YRFI 49.3%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Ryan Feltner · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Kyle Leahy · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T08:16:09.078941Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.507
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Ryan Feltner / Kyle Leahy announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.507

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRyan Feltner / Kyle Leahy announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

9:41 PM · decision fi-53cf2d7dbff84e71

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.9% / YRFI 50.1%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Roki Sasaki · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Merrill Kelly · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T08:16:09.078941Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.499
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Roki Sasaki / Merrill Kelly announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.499

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRoki Sasaki / Merrill Kelly announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-103	-130	47.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-106	-120	48.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED

Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres

9:41 PM · decision fi-5fa19aa54efadabd

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.5% / YRFI 48.5%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Ronel Blanco · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Robbie Ray · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T08:16:09.078941Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.515
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Ronel Blanco / Robbie Ray announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.515

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRonel Blanco / Robbie Ray announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-111	-115	49.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners

9:46 PM · decision fi-ce38f4fb1feabfbc

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.9% / YRFI 48.1%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Drew Rasmussen · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Logan Gilbert · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T08:16:09.078941Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.519
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Drew Rasmussen / Logan Gilbert announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.519

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSDrew Rasmussen / Logan Gilbert announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-152	+115	56.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-142	+112	55.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants

10:16 PM · decision fi-7157fe92516282f5

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Keider Montero · official_announced · matched

Home starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-06 · updated 2026-08-07T08:19:17.357108Z

both starters must be officially announced

0 accepted paired book(s). both starters must be officially announced

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusboth starters must be officially announced

Book shop (0 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
No paired first-inning quotes were available.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 209 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=209
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Merrill Kelly (R)	theScore Bet	+240	-	39.3%	27.1%	+12.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Max Muncy	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Merrill Kelly (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	35.8%	21.7%	+14.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	-	Robbie Ray (L)	theScore Bet	+260	-	35.5%	25.6%	+10.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	-	George Klassen (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	35.4%	21.7%	+13.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Wilyer Abreu	Boston Red Sox	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	-	Jack Perkins (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	34.1%	21.7%	+12.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Willson Contreras	Boston Red Sox	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	-	Jack Perkins (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	33.1%	21.7%	+11.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	-	Zebby Matthews (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	33.1%	19.1%	+14.0%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	-	Ryan Feltner (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	33.0%	19.9%	+13.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	-	Ryan Feltner (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	32.4%	19.1%	+13.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:46 PM	-	Logan Gilbert (R)	theScore Bet	+250	-	32.2%	26.3%	+5.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	8:16 PM	-	Nathan Eovaldi (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	32.1%	19.1%	+13.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	-	Kyle Leahy (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	31.3%	19.1%	+12.2%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	-	Tyler Mahle (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	31.0%	25.6%	+5.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Brice Turang	Milwaukee Brewers	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	-	Zebby Matthews (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	30.9%	16.0%	+15.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Corbin Carroll	Arizona Diamondbacks	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Roki Sasaki (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	30.3%	19.1%	+11.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Merrill Kelly (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	29.6%	18.4%	+11.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	-	José Soriano (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	29.5%	19.1%	+10.4%	98	-
Strong HR Chance	Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Merrill Kelly (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	29.2%	18.4%	+10.9%	97	-
Best HR Chance	Christian Walker	Houston Astros	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	-	Robbie Ray (L)	theScore Bet	+360	-	29.1%	19.9%	+9.2%	97	-
Best HR Chance	Ketel Marte	Arizona Diamondbacks	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Roki Sasaki (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	28.6%	19.1%	+9.5%	95	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	100	90.1%	-911	Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill	Petco Park HR factor 0.85 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	100	89.5%	-852	Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Corbin Carroll, Andy Pages	Chase Field HR factor 1.02 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	8:16 PM	100	89.0%	-806	Pete Alonso, Jake Burger, Gunnar Henderson, Brandon Nimmo	Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10 \| Wind 11 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	100	88.3%	-757	Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Hunter Goodman, Willi Castro	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.7%	-
Watchlist	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	100	85.9%	-609	Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, Kody Clemens, Ryan Jeffers	American Family Field HR factor 1.08	-
Watchlist	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	100	85.1%	-572	Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Kazuma Okamoto, Jesus Sanchez	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	100	84.5%	-547	Kyle Stowers, Josh Lowe, Zach Neto, Mike Trout	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88	-
Watchlist	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	100	84.1%	-530	Eddy Alvarez, Endy Rodriguez, Bryan Reynolds, Brandon Lowe	PNC Park HR factor 0.96	-
Watchlist	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	8:11 PM	91	83.8%	-518	-	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:46 PM	100	83.8%	-517	Junior Caminero, Julio Rodriguez, Dominic Canzone, Randy Arozarena	T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92	-
Watchlist	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	100	83.8%	-515	Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery, Braden Montgomery, Jo Adell	Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	100	83.7%	-513	Wilyer Abreu, Willson Contreras, Tyler Soderstrom, Ceddanne Rafaela	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	90	82.8%	-481	-	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82	-
Watchlist	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	100	82.8%	-480	Ben Rice, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Trent Grisham	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Shohei Ohtani — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+240) HR chance 39.3% | edge +12.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.238, OPS 0.953, ISO 0.257, TB/G 2.06
Statcast: barrel 16.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.5/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.581
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 25/105 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.25
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0469, xFIP 4.94, K% 15.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.398, xERA 7.16, whiff 20.7%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.533, K% 0.0% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.046, OPS 0.948, ISO 0.241 (327 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Max Muncy — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+320) HR chance 35.8% | edge +14.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.209, OPS 0.841, ISO 0.241, TB/G 1.64
Statcast: barrel 13.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.5/110.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.474
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 17/105 (16%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0469, xFIP 4.94, K% 15.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.398, xERA 7.16, whiff 20.7%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.096, K% 12.2% (49 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.053, OPS 0.839, ISO 0.236 (304 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Yordan Alvarez — Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres (+260) HR chance 35.5% | edge +10.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.307, OPS 1.082, ISO 0.311, TB/G 2.32
Statcast: barrel 18.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.5/118.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.704
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 30/114 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0285, xFIP 4.74, K% 20.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.324, xERA 4.42, whiff 25.2%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.917, K% 0.0% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.070, OPS 0.871, ISO 0.259 (128 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Kyle Stowers — Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins (+320) HR chance 35.4% | edge +13.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.176, OPS 0.770, ISO 0.221, TB/G 1.69
Statcast: barrel 12.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.0/112.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.430
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 13/91 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0554, xFIP 7.93, K% 18.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.472, xERA 11.26, whiff 34.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.050, OPS 0.840, ISO 0.251 (300 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.505, xwOBA 0.372 (48 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ High-whiff arsenal

Best HR Chance Wilyer Abreu — Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (+320) HR chance 34.1% | edge +12.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.179, OPS 0.783, ISO 0.204, TB/G 1.76
Statcast: barrel 13.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.9/113.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.487
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 17/112 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0445, xFIP 4.11, K% 26.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.310, xERA 4.01, whiff 28.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.045, OPS 0.710, ISO 0.203 (336 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.465, xwOBA 0.324 (77 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Best HR Chance Willson Contreras — Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (+320) HR chance 33.1% | edge +11.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.219, OPS 0.935, ISO 0.252, TB/G 1.86
Statcast: barrel 14.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.7/114.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.512
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 22/105 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0445, xFIP 4.11, K% 26.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.310, xERA 4.01, whiff 28.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.051, OPS 0.919, ISO 0.239 (316 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.581, xwOBA 0.368 (50 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Jackson Chourio — Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers (+380) HR chance 33.1% | edge +14.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.185, OPS 0.805, ISO 0.193, TB/G 1.95
Statcast: barrel 13.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.1/113.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.464
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 13/81 (16%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0459, xFIP 4.25, K% 20.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.331, xERA 4.64, whiff 22.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.040, OPS 0.778, ISO 0.191 (272 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.376, xwOBA 0.276 (20 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Strong HR Chance Jordan Walker — Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals (+360) HR chance 33.0% | edge +13.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.198, OPS 0.834, ISO 0.206, TB/G 1.91
Statcast: barrel 13.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.1/116.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.482
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 0/20 (0%) | Season 22/111 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 0/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0519, xFIP 4.79, K% 17.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.360, xERA 5.62, whiff 24.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.045, OPS 0.807, ISO 0.200 (352 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.489, xwOBA 0.349 (49 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

⚠ Cold recent HR form

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Steven Kwan	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	+900	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Cold recent HR form
Troy Johnston	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	+700	0.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Taylor Ward	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:46 PM	+600	1.0%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Andres Gimenez	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+700	1.0%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Cold recent HR form
Luke Keaschall	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	+700	1.2%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Josh Naylor	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:46 PM	+600	1.3%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Nick Gonzales	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+650	1.3%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Cold recent HR form
Mauricio Dubon	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+700	1.3%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Cold recent HR form
Nolan Schanuel	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	+700	1.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| Cold recent HR form
Xavier Edwards	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	+700	1.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| High-whiff arsenal \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Max Fried	Tyler Mahle	1.18	17.2%	47.6%	-	+0.0%
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	None	Keider Montero	0.82	17.2%	47.5%	-	+0.0%
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	Payton Tolle	Jack Perkins	0.95	16.3%	45.9%	-	+0.0%
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	Noah Schultz	Parker Messick	1.00	16.2%	45.8%	-	+0.0%
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	8:11 PM	Daniel Lynch IV	None	0.93	16.2%	45.7%	-	+0.0%
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	9:46 PM	Logan Gilbert	Drew Rasmussen	0.92	16.2%	45.7%	-	+0.0%
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	Carmen Mlodzinski	Zac Thornton	0.96	15.9%	45.1%	-	+0.0%
Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	Tyler Phillips	George Klassen	0.88	15.5%	44.3%	-	+0.0%
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	Zack Wheeler	José Soriano	1.10	14.9%	43.2%	-	+0.0%
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	Shane Drohan	Zebby Matthews	1.08	14.1%	41.7%	-	+0.0%
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	Kyle Leahy	Ryan Feltner	0.93	11.7%	36.7%	-	+0.0%
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	8:16 PM	Nathan Eovaldi	Shane Baz	1.10	11.0%	35.4%	-	+0.0%
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Merrill Kelly	Roki Sasaki	1.02	10.5%	34.2%	-	+0.0%
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	Robbie Ray	Ronel Blanco	0.85	9.9%	32.8%	-	+0.0%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

27 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays	73.2	70.1	82.0	6	Split-Finger (48% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 31.6%, put-away 23.2%, xwOBA 0.251, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves	68.3	54.2	87.0	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.241, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	65.0	59.6	73.0	5	Cutter (30% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 22.3%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins	61.4	60.4	66.0	6	Slider (41% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	60.1	54.4	69.5	6	Changeup (38% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	59.4	52.8	70.5	6	Changeup (35% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	59.0	63.5	59.5	6	Split-Finger (38% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 30.0%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles	58.7	68.9	51.0	6	Curveball (41% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	58.6	65.7	52.5	6	Changeup (44% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 28.4%, put-away 25.2%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Daniel Lynch IV	Kansas City Royals vs Chicago Cubs	56.8	57.0	64.0	5	Slider (44% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	56.7	63.8	49.0	3	Slider (39% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 30.3%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies	55.6	67.7	47.0	5	Curveball (46% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds	52.8	54.7	52.0	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants	49.2	38.1	62.0	5	Slider (30% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 18.8%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees	48.9	46.3	51.5	5	Split-Finger (28% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robbie Ray	San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros	47.9	51.9	45.5	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ronel Blanco	Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres	47.9	56.5	40.0	4	Changeup (38% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels	46.9	52.6	40.5	6	Curveball (46% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers	45.5	43.5	47.5	5	Curveball (29% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers	44.2	45.2	42.0	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Carmen Mlodzinski	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets	40.1	41.0	39.0	7	Split-Finger (31% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	39.3	48.5	27.5	6	Changeup (48% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates	38.9	41.0	39.0	7	Sweeper (27% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 19.9%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies	38.4	44.4	33.5	6	Changeup (33% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Noah Schultz	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	35.1	41.3	27.0	6	Sweeper (33% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 20.5%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.361, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
George Klassen	Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins	30.6	64.7	0.0	5	Slider (60% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 34.4%, put-away 12.2%, xwOBA 0.472, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	25.5	39.5	8.5	6	Slider (33% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.398, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

27 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	17.2%	5.4	5.7	5.7	91	normal	full	8.50	91.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	R	26.3%	4.3	4.7	4.7	72	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees	R	21.8%	5.5	5.3	5.3	92	normal	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers	R	20.3%	5.3	5.8	5.7	89	normal	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	L	28.7%	5.1	5.6	5.5	86	short	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Noah Schultz	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	L	19.8%	4.3	4.6	4.5	72	short	full	27.00	73.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	L	22.8%	5.5	5.9	5.8	92	normal	full	70.50	29.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	18.0%	4.6	4.8	4.8	77	short	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants	R	19.3%	4.3	5.7	5.4	72	short	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Ronel Blanco	Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres	R	24.0%	4.5	4.9	5.3	76	short	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Daniel Lynch IV	Kansas City Royals vs Chicago Cubs	L	17.0%	1.0	-	4.8	17	short	full	64.00	36.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.9%
George Klassen	Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins	R	21.1%	2.1	2.3	4.7	35	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.1 IP/start
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	24.6%	5.3	5.2	5.2	89	normal	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels	R	16.9%	4.0	4.6	4.4	67	short	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins	L	24.4%	6.0	5.3	6.0	101	deep	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	20.3%	4.8	5.8	5.6	80	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	19.8%	5.9	5.7	5.8	99	normal	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves	L	25.0%	4.4	5.8	5.5	74	short	full	87.00	13.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	35.8%	5.0	5.8	6.0	84	short	full	82.00	18.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Carmen Mlodzinski	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets	R	20.1%	2.6	4.9	4.5	44	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.6 IP/start
Robbie Ray	San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros	L	21.1%	5.4	5.5	5.5	91	normal	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	26.2%	6.3	6.0	6.1	106	deep	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies	R	21.6%	5.2	5.1	5.1	87	normal	full	33.50	66.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	R	26.6%	5.0	5.6	5.5	84	short	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles	R	26.5%	5.4	6.1	6.0	91	normal	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.3%
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	24.1%	5.6	5.6	5.6	94	normal	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds	R	25.1%	6.0	5.1	6.0	101	deep	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

10/10 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Kyle Leahy	Kyle Leahy Under	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	15.6	-1.9	10.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.1	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.90 <= 3 min
Max Fried	Max Fried Under	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	17.5	15.9	-1.6	9.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	74	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Logan Gilbert	Logan Gilbert Over	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	18.5	19.7	1.2	6.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Parker Messick	Parker Messick Over	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	18.5	1.0	5.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Payton Tolle	Payton Tolle Under	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	16.6	-0.9	5.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shane Drohan	Shane Drohan Over	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	18.0	0.5	2.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Zack Wheeler	Zack Wheeler Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	17.5	17.9	0.4	2.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	6.0	84	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Drew Rasmussen	Drew Rasmussen Under	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	17.1	-0.4	2.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	84	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shane Baz	Shane Baz Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nathan Eovaldi	Nathan Eovaldi Over	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.5%	B	MONITOR	research	normal	6.0	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

85 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Francisco Alvarez	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.71	1.56	0.58	0.58	2.78 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Otto Lopez	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.51	1.35	0.65	0.51	2.94 / Over	0.35	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.42	1.09	0.60	0.72	2.72 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.31	1.23	0.54	0.54	2.73 / Over	0.35	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon Lowe	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.27	1.02	0.61	0.64	2.37 / Over	0.35	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Willson Contreras	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	2.27	0.99	0.57	0.71	2.25 / Over	0.35	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.24	0.97	0.63	0.64	2.33 / Over	0.35	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jake McCarthy	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.23	1.06	0.52	0.65	2.33 / Over	0.35	season_games=100,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nick Gonzales	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.14	1.19	0.52	0.43	2.29 / Over	0.35	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Bryan Reynolds	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.13	0.99	0.63	0.52	2.30 / Over	0.35	season_games=117,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.12	1.07	0.50	0.55	1.90 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Zach Neto	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.10	0.92	0.70	0.48	2.02 / Over	0.35	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	2.08	0.93	0.56	0.60	2.06 / Over	0.35	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Max Muncy	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.06	0.88	0.62	0.55	2.50 / Over	0.35	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Kyle Tucker	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.05	0.90	0.61	0.54	2.22 / Over	0.35	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.03	0.87	0.71	0.45	1.93 / Over	0.35	season_games=96,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
TJ Rumfield	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.01	1.06	0.43	0.52	2.12 / Over	0.35	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Kyle Stowers	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.01	0.92	0.50	0.59	2.36 / Over	0.35	season_games=91,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Willi Castro	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	1.99	0.96	0.54	0.50	2.06 / Over	0.35	season_games=97,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Xavier Edwards	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	1.97	1.11	0.47	0.39	2.26 / Over	0.35	season_games=116,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	1.95	0.86	0.55	0.54	1.74 / Over	0.35	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Bo Bichette	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	1.95	1.04	0.44	0.46	2.02 / Over	0.35	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Carson Benge	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	1.91	1.02	0.51	0.38	1.98 / Over	0.35	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Endy Rodriguez	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	1.88	1.08	0.40	0.40	1.93 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Caleb Durbin	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	1.88	0.84	0.53	0.51	1.73 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes