MLB Bets 2026-08-06

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	1005W–467L–0P	68%	-40.94 u	Last 14 days • 1472 settled
Grade A	27W–30L–0P	47%	-9.43 u
Grade B	978W–433L–0P	69%	-27.51 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3164W–2012L–8P	61%	-184.63 u	All-time • 5184 settled
Grade A	249W–190L–0P	57%	-3.40 u
Grade B	2915W–1818L–8P	62%	-177.23 u

90 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter H+R+RBI	Fernando Tatis Jr.	1.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter H+R+RBI	Willson Contreras	1.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter Hits	Luis Rengifo	1.5	-272	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter Walks	Alec Bohm	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter Walks	Austin Riley	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter Walks	Bryson Stott	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter Walks	Caleb Durbin	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter Walks	Carson Benge	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter Walks	Dillon Dingler	0.5	-332	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter Walks	Ian Happ	0.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter Walks	Jac Caglianone	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter Walks	Jarren Duran	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-373	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter Walks	Marcus Semien	0.5	-329	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter Walks	Ozzie Albies	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-122	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	K Prop	Brandon Young	4.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	K Prop	Braxton Ashcraft	5.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	K Prop	Kohl Drake	3.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	K Prop	Miles Mikolas	3.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	K Prop	Ranger Suarez	6.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Pitcher Earned Run	Bryce Miller	2.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Pitcher Earned Run	Dylan Cease	2.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Pitcher Earned Run	Nolan McLean	2.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Pitcher Earned Run	Ryan Johnson	3.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Pitcher Hits Allow	Andrew Abbott	5.5	-141	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Pitcher Hits Allow	Martin Perez	5.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ryan Johnson	5.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Pitcher Walks	Andrew Abbott	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Pitcher Walks	Brandon Young	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Pitcher Walks	Bryce Miller	1.5	-178	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Pitcher Walks	Dylan Cease	2.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Pitcher Walks	Framber Valdez	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Pitcher Walks	Mason Barnett	2.5	-191	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Pitcher Walks	Nolan McLean	1.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	Pitcher Walks	Walker Buehler	2.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	YRFI	YRFI	-	128	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-05	K Prop	Noah Cameron	4.5	-156	-	WIN	+0.641	Noah Cameron: 9.0 (line 4.5)
2026-08-05	K Prop	Cody Bradford	3.5	-162	-	WIN	+0.617	Cody Bradford: 5.0 (line 3.5)
2026-08-05	K Prop	Sean Burke	6.5	107	-	LOSS	-1.000	Sean Burke: 4.0 (line 6.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	518	56%	-12.70u	69	46%	-13.23u	242	57%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	459	58%	+9.05u	61	51%	-6.80u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	161	58%	+5.16u	22	77%	+7.41u	44	64%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1587	74%	-27.77u	956	75%	-19.61u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	513	57%	-18.75u	112	53%	-11.28u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	379	61%	-5.29u	91	65%	+5.55u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	52	71%	+0.02u	15	53%	-3.88u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	34	53%	-0.50u	3	33%	-1.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	4	25%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	2
YRFI	👀 WATCH	3	67%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	2
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	116	47%	-12.87u	8	75%	+2.24u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	55	40%	-9.78u	5	60%	+0.73u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	26	54%	-1.69u	25	56%	-0.69u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	568	52%	-53.29u	77	60%	+3.73u	85	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	4/5	14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 20 total candidate(s); season N 518, 14d N 69	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 12 total candidate(s); season N 459, 14d N 61	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 161, 14d N 22	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 22 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 22/22 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 1 actionable / 22 total candidate(s); season N 52, 14d N 15	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 210 total candidate(s); season N 34, 14d N 3	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 116, 14d N 8	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 26, 14d N 25	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 2 actionable / 170 total candidate(s); season N 568, 14d N 77	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 170 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 784 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 224 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 757 pitcher(s), 3352 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 571 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 22 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 22 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 22 roster team(s), 286 hitter(s) \| 22 SP matchup(s), 1418 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 286 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 22 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks, Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins, Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, New York Mets, Milwaukee Brewers, Athletics, Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 22 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 22 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 335 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 11/11 game(s) with pitching props \| K 20 line(s)/11 game(s); Outs 22 line(s)/11 game(s); Hits Allowed 19 line(s)/11 game(s); Walks 12 line(s)/7 game(s); Earned Runs 17 line(s)/11 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 80, bovada_direct 5, fanatics 3, betmgm 2
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2284 market side(s) checked \| 2284 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 11 game(s) fetched \| 11 with ML odds \| 11 with total odds \| 5 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 170 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 11 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 618 \| batter bats 337 \| batter hand splits 145 \| pitcher HR splits 60 \| batter pitch-type 571 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 188 batter(s) scored \| 11 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 71 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation blocked

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	12:36 PM	+171	-182	1.5 (-128)	-1.5 (+106)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	12:40 PM	+148	-157	1.5 (-148)	-1.5 (+123)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	1:11 PM	+101	-107	-1.5 (+153)	1.5 (-186)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	+126	-134	1.5 (-184)	-1.5 (+151)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	-115	+108	-1.5 (+141)	1.5 (-171)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	+116	-123	1.5 (-199)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	+279	-358	1.5 (+130)	-1.5 (-157)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+158	-193	1.5 (-127)	-1.5 (+105)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+130	-157	1.5 (-157)	-1.5 (+130)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	+105	-126	1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+162)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-108	-112	-1.5 (+155)	1.5 (-189)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

1 Grade A | 39 Grade B | 806 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -155, pitch-type boost on 18% usage pitch, expected IP 4.5 below A-grade…	K Prop	Kohl Drake Over	PAD@DIA	9:41 PM	3.5	4.5	-155	BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 \| best price	28.7%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

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Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (17 play(s))

K Prop - Ranger Suarez Under

Selected line 6.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 5.7

K Prop - Martin Perez Under

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 4

Batter Hits - Luis Rengifo Under

Projection: 0.8Displayed: Under 1.5 -272Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Matt Olson Under

Projection: 1.0Displayed: Under 1.5 -278Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: BetOnline Under 1.5 -278 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%Selected market: Over 31.0% / Under 69.0%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Sal Stewart Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter Total Bases - Hector Rodriguez Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Joe Mack Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Colson Montgomery Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Matt McLain Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Dane Myers Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Coby Mayo Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Bryan Reynolds Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

F5 Total - Under 5.5

Projection: -Displayed: Under 5.5 -132Market line: majority 5 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Under 5.5 -132 | exactOwn-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5 / avg N/A

F5 Total - Under 5.5

Projection: -Displayed: Under 5.5 -140Market line: majority 5 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exactOwn-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5 / avg N/A

Batter Total Bases - Jo Adell Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Petey Halpin Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Travis Bazzana Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Kohl Drake Over 3.5 (-155) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -155

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	-145	+112	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-155	+122	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-140	+110	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 28.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.01K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.4% / under 42.6%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kohl Drake: K/9 8.4, proj 4.5K over 4.5 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/3 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 16.0% | xwOBA 0.417 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 18% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.8%, L7 22.1%, season 22.1% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 2/3 over 3.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -155, pitch-type boost on 18% usage pitch, expected IP 4.5 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (39 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Miles Mikolas Under 3.5 (-171) diff 42.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -158 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -171

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-175	+130	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	+139	-182	-
DK	3.5	+133	-171	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+124	-158	Recommended
Fanatics	3.5	+125	-165	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 2.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 42.2% vs 17% min; cushion -1.48K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 40.5% / under 59.5%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Miles Mikolas: K/9 4.1, proj 2.0K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 15.4% | put-away% 11.9% | xwOBA 0.353 | top pitch: Curveball (23% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Curveball: 27.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Miles Mikolas: 222 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .268 | OPS .715
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 222 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 19.5%, L7 15.6%, season 23.3%, active roster 20.9%/9 hitters, BVP 13.5%/222 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 77%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 15.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (9 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 18/23 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: K L10: 10/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 (-127) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.7% / Under 47.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	-130	+101	-
DK	5.5	-127	-101	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-142	+112	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 25.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.42K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.7% / under 47.3%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Braxton Ashcraft: K/9 9.7, proj 6.9K over 5.5 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 23.4% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Curveball: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 26 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .208 | OPS .728
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 26 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 23.8%, L7 24.9%, season 21.2%, BVP 26.9%/26 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.36
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.42K, diff 25.8%, books 100%)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Ranger Suarez Under 6.5 (-150) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.7 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 5.5 +116; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-147	+114	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+115	-
FanDuel	5.5	-148	+116	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	-155	+110	-
DK	6.5	+118	-150	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.3K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 18.9% vs 17% min; cushion -1.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.3% / under 56.7%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Ranger Suarez: K/9 10.4, proj 5.3K over 5.1 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.8% | put-away% 22.9% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Curveball (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 27.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 32 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .911
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 32 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 21.4%, L7 28.2%, season 23.9%, BVP 15.6%/32 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.53
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
K% trend: support +4.6 ppts (recent 30.3% vs season 25.7%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Martin Perez Under 5.5 (-165) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.80 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 9.8%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.8% / under 57.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 30 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .185 | OPS .678
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.8%, L7 18.8%, season 21.6%, BVP 30.0%/30 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 18/21 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 3.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andrew Abbott Under 5.5 (-141) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+107	-141	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.85 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.33, BB% 11.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 22 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .597
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 29.5%, L7 23.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Johnson Under 5.5 (-129) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.16 over 4.3 IP (WHIP 1.55, BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.89x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 17 PA | K% 41.2% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .062 | OPS .180
Opponent K profile: composite 27.4%, split 24.3%, L7 28.9%, season 24.4%, BVP 41.2%/17 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

▸ Pitcher Walks — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Andrew Abbott Over 1.5 (-186) diff 68.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -186 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -186 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5292685753235213 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.48 over 5.2 IP (BB% 11.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.9% / under 39.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 22 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .597
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 29.5%, L7 23.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.9%, L7 6.5%, season 8.9%, BVP 9.1%/22 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 18/23 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-186); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Nolan McLean Over 1.5 (-149) diff 55.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3309279715323683 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.6 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .571 | OPS 1.524
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 16.1%, L7 19.2%, season 22.2% (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 9.8%, L7 11.5%, season 9.7% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/22 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Framber Valdez Over 1.5 (-164) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1177719028300084 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.5 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 175 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .288 | OPS .785
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.2%, L7 20.8%, season 22.9%, BVP 22.3%/175 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 10.6%, L7 11.5%, season 8.9%, BVP 10.3%/175 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 17/22 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Brandon Young Over 1.5 (-130) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.978491545768914 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.6 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.100
Opponent K profile: composite 27.2%, split 26.6%, L7 30.3%, season 25.3% (adj 1.11x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 11.2%, L7 4.2%, season 8.4% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Mason Barnett Under 2.5 (-191) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -191 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.6% / Under 61.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -191 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7391345025968918 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 30.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 3.8 IP (BB% 9.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 2.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.6% / under 61.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.16x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 23.5%, L7 29.7%, season 25.2% (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.1%, split 10.4%, L7 13.5%, season 9.7% (adj 1.16x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/15 (100%) | Season 15/15 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 10/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-191); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Walker Buehler Under 2.5 (-159) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.838776430101519 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 26.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.4 IP (BB% 9.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 122 PA | K% 18.0% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .296 | OPS .919
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 18.4%, L7 17.9%, season 19.2%, BVP 18.0%/122 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 10.8%, L7 8.6%, season 8.8%, BVP 4.9%/122 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Dylan Cease Over 2.5 (-148) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -148 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.150938751853233 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 26.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 6.1 IP (BB% 10.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 7.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.3 outs/6.1 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.13x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 120 PA | K% 35.8% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .194 | OPS .618
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.5%, L7 21.5%, season 21.8%, BVP 35.8%/120 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 11.6%, L7 9.6%, season 10.9%, BVP 9.2%/120 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Bryce Miller Under 1.5 (-178) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.1188339386749393 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.21 over 5.4 IP (BB% 4.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.0% / under 60.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 67 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 1.5% | AVG .212 | OPS .512
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.3%, L7 19.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.9%/67 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 10.7%, L7 9.9%, season 9.3%, BVP 1.5%/67 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-178); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Dylan Cease Under 2.5 (-162) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.15 over 6.1 IP (xFIP 2.68, ERA 1.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 7.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.3 outs/6.1 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 120 PA | K% 35.8% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .194 | OPS .618
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.5%, L7 21.5%, season 21.8%, BVP 35.8%/120 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-162) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Johnson Under 3.5 (-155) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -155 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.6 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 25.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.92 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.80, ERA 6.86)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.2% / under 56.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.94x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 17 PA | K% 41.2% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .062 | OPS .180
Opponent K profile: composite 27.4%, split 24.3%, L7 28.9%, season 24.4%, BVP 41.2%/17 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 3.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryce Miller Under 2.5 (-167) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+126	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+125	-180	-

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.12 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.63, ERA 3.39)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 67 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 1.5% | AVG .212 | OPS .512
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.3%, L7 19.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.9%/67 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-167); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Nolan McLean Under 2.5 (-148) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.00 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.34, ERA 2.77)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.07x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .571 | OPS 1.524
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 16.1%, L7 19.2%, season 22.2% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/22 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season

▸ Batter Hits — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Hits — Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 (-272) diff 43.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -272

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	Recommended
DK	1.5	+199	-272	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-272); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 17 play(s) (B 17)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-425) diff 72.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.69x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 15 PA | 5/12 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .929
BVP walk adjustment: 0.92x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/110 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 90/110 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-425) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-373) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -373

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+256	-373	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 96/113 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 96/113 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Heavy juice (-373); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-525) diff 67.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 19 PA | 7/18 | HR 1 | K% 5.3% | BB% 5.3% | OPS 1.088
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/110 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 82/110 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-525) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-550) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 34 PA | 11/33 | HR 0 | K% 8.8% | BB% 2.9% | OPS .807
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/112 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 85/112 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-550) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-332) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+230	-332	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/105 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 79/105 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-332); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-450) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.67x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/110 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 80/110 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-450); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-450) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 83/106 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 83/106 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-450); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-375) diff 60.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 1 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .643
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/106 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 84/106 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-375); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-350) diff 56.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 23 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 8.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .447
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/109 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 76/109 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-350) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-525) diff 56.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/114 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 41/56 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 86/114 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-525); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-329) diff 56.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -329 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -329

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -329 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+228	-329	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/96 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 32/47 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 70/96 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-329); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-425) diff 56.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.556
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/100 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 78/100 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-425); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-400) diff 55.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/106 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 78/106 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-356) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -356 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -356

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -356 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+245	-356	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/110 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 81/110 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-356); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-350) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/111 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 91/111 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Heavy juice (-350); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-475) diff 52.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/113 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 81/113 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-475); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (-129) diff 51.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-129	-107	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.76 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 1.35x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 28 PA | 1/25 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 10.7% | OPS .183
BVP walk adjustment: 1.08x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/56 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 24/55 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 55/111 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.56

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-147) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-147	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.383, xSLG 0.429 (132 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 29 PA | 11/24 | HR 1 | K% 20.7% | BB% 13.8% | OPS 1.302
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/105 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 54/105 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.20

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 30%, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-157) diff 68.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.417 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.358 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/113 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 63/113 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.06

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0, heavy juice -157 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-122) edge 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles (F5) | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Under 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 3 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Under 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-110	-110	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
FanDuel	5.5	-106	-122	Selected
MyBookie	5.5	-111	-110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[INJ] Fabian Soto (Los Angeles Angels) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Kiefer Lord (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Camden Yards (PITCHER)
Brandon Young xFIP 4.42
Ryan Johnson xFIP 4.80
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 99)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.00
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Brandon Young (RHP)
Away SP: Ryan Johnson (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (806 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 16 play(s) (B 4 | C 12)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dylan Cease Over 7.5 (-115) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 -104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 -104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-115	-115	-
DK	7.5	-115	-111	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-104	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	7.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 10.5K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 40.2% vs 17% min; cushion +3.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.4% / under 49.6%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Dylan Cease: K/9 12.6, proj 10.5K over 6.4 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 7.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.3 outs/6.1 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 35.0% | put-away% 24.7% | xwOBA 0.260 | top pitch: Changeup (54% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 35.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 120 PA | K% 35.8% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .194 | OPS .618
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 120 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 21.5%, L7 21.5%, season 21.8%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters, BVP 35.8%/120 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.6%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 88%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 9.00 | Season Avg 8.70
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Nolan McLean Over 5.5 (-142) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -142

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-141	+108	-
DK	5.5	-142	+111	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 10.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.58K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.3% / under 44.7%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Nolan McLean: K/9 10.6, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 23.8% | xwOBA 0.293 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Curveball: 25.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .571 | OPS 1.524
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 16.1%, L7 19.2%, season 22.2%, active roster 18.1%/7 hitters (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 70%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 19.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 17/22 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.10 | Season Avg 6.73
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Martin Perez Under 4.5 (-168) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -168

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 4 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -168 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 3.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	-
Fanatics	3.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	3.5	-165	+120	-
BetOnline	4.5	+132	-172	-
DK	4.5	+131	-168	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+134	-172	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 40.8% / under 59.2%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.60
Martin Perez: K/9 6.4, proj 4.3K over 5.1 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.4% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Changeup: 38.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 30 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .185 | OPS .678
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 30 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.8%, L7 18.8%, season 21.6%, BVP 30.0%/30 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.57
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Framber Valdez Over 4.5 (-149) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	4.5	-156	+120	-
DK	4.5	-149	+117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-166	+130	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.21K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.5% / under 43.5%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Framber Valdez: K/9 7.1, proj 4.7K over 5.7 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.1% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Curveball (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Curveball: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 175 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .288 | OPS .785
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 175 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.2%, L7 20.8%, season 22.9%, BVP 22.3%/175 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.45
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Mason Barnett Under 4.5 (+103) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +103

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-128	-101	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-125	-105	-
DK	4.5	-132	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-125	-102	-
Fanatics	4.5	-120	-110	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 19.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.86K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.6% / under 46.4%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Mason Barnett: K/9 7.7, proj 3.6K over 3.6 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 2.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.7% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Slider (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slider: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 23.5%, L7 29.7%, season 25.2% (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/15 (87%) | Season 13/15 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
K% trend: headwind -8.7 ppts (recent 14.3% vs season 23.0%, proj adj -4.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bailey Ober Under 4.5 (-147) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -147

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 3.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-155	+115	-
Fanatics	3.5	-170	+130	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+122	-159	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+130	-170	-
DK	4.5	+115	-147	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+134	-172	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.80K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.9% / under 56.1%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Bailey Ober: K/9 6.8, proj 3.7K over 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.0% | put-away% 15.8% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Sweeper (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Sweeper: 34.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 139 PA | K% 18.0% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .282 | OPS .836
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 139 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 24.0%, L7 16.0%, season 21.2%, active roster 21.9%/6 hitters, BVP 18.0%/139 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Kansas City Royals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 16.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.94
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Wacha Over 4.5 (+104) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +104

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	4.5	-102	-127	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	+104	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-104	-122	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.56K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.3% / under 53.7%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael Wacha: K/9 7.6, proj 5.1K over 6.1 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.4% | put-away% 17.8% | xwOBA 0.314 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 31.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 110 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .233 | OPS .748
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 110 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.4%, L7 20.2%, season 21.5%, BVP 20.0%/110 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/22 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brandon Young Over 5.5 (+122) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 +122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+118	-154	-
DK	5.5	+122	-156	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	5.5	+122	-156	Recommended
Fanatics	5.5	+120	-160	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 12.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.68K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Brandon Young: K/9 7.7, proj 6.2K over 5.9 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Slider (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Slider: 38.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.100
Opponent K profile: composite 27.2%, split 26.6%, L7 30.3%, season 25.3% (adj 1.11x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/18 (22%) | Season 4/18 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.72
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Luis Castillo Under 4.5 (-135) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -135

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.55K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.9% / under 54.1%)
Luis Castillo: K/9 6.9, proj 4.0K over 5.4 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 14.2% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 20.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x)
BVP (active roster) vs Luis Castillo: 85 PA | K% 22.4% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .342 | OPS .978
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 85 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.9%, L7 19.9%, season 21.9%, BVP 22.4%/85 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.30
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.9 ppts (recent 13.5% vs season 19.4%, proj adj -3.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 104 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Walker Buehler Under 3.5 (+113) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +113

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-135	+105	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-145	+113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-136	+106	-
Fanatics	3.5	-140	+105	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 11.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.41K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 55.8% / under 44.2%); own-line consensus 6/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Walker Buehler: K/9 7.5, proj 3.1K over 4.6 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.0% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Slider (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Slider: 25.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 122 PA | K% 18.0% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .296 | OPS .919
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 122 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 18.4%, L7 17.9%, season 19.2%, BVP 18.0%/122 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/22 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.18
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 3.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cristopher Sanchez Over 7.5 (+110) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 7.3 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 7.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	6.5	-150	+118	Recommended
BetMGM	7.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	7.5	+110	-143	Raw BestVerify
DK	7.5	+110	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	7.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 8.3K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 10.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.80K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Cristopher Sanchez: K/9 10.5, proj 8.3K over 6.0 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 19.5 outs/6.5 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.7% | put-away% 25.8% | xwOBA 0.284 | top pitch: Changeup (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Changeup: 29.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 74 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .303 | OPS .697
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 74 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 26.4%, L7 22.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 20.3%/74 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 7.30
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 7.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryce Miller Over 5.5 (-125) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	-115	-112	-
DK	5.5	-125	-102	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-113	-113	-
Fanatics	5.5	-110	-120	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.34K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.4% / under 47.6%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryce Miller: K/9 8.1, proj 5.8K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.4% | put-away% 18.9% | xwOBA 0.255 | top pitch: Split-Finger (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Split-Finger: 45.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 67 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 1.5% | AVG .212 | OPS .512
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 67 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.3%, L7 19.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.9%/67 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.69
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
K% trend: headwind -9.6 ppts (recent 16.5% vs season 26.1%, proj adj -4.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Janson Junk Under 3.5 (-114) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	-116	-111	-
DK	3.5	-112	-114	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+100	-128	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 5.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.8% / under 50.2%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Janson Junk: K/9 7.4, proj 3.3K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 16.6% | put-away% 15.4% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Changeup: 26.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 45 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .311 | OPS .800
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 45 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.9%, L7 18.3%, season 21.3%, active roster 21.1%/7 hitters, BVP 20.0%/45 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.7%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 18.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.07
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Johnson Over 4.5 (-101) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+103	-133	-
DK	4.5	-101	-127	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+104	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.3% / under 52.7%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ryan Johnson: K/9 7.9, proj 4.7K over 4.5 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.4% | put-away% 13.8% | xwOBA 0.351 | top pitch: Split-Finger (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Split-Finger: 26.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 17 PA | K% 41.2% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .062 | OPS .180
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 27.4%, split 24.3%, L7 28.9%, season 24.4%, BVP 41.2%/17 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/12 (25%) | Season 3/12 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.08
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — David Peterson Under 3.5 (+101) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	3.5	-119	-109	-
DK	3.5	-129	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-113	-115	-
Fanatics	3.5	-115	-115	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 2.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.08K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.1% / under 46.9%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
David Peterson: K/9 7.4, proj 3.4K over 5.1 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.1% | put-away% 18.1% | xwOBA 0.343 | top pitch: Curveball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Curveball: 24.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 49 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .214 | OPS .598
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 17.1%, L7 19.3%, season 19.5%, active roster 19.2%/6 hitters, BVP 16.3%/49 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.2% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.86
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Abbott Over 4.5 (+100) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +100

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+107	-139	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+100	-127	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 0.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.04K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.2% / under 52.8%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andrew Abbott: K/9 7.1, proj 4.5K over 5.5 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.6% | put-away% 15.1% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 22 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .597
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 29.5%, L7 23.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.13
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Andrew Abbott Under 17.5 (-111) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	17.5	-120	-112	-
DK	17.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 14.909 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.4 IP (xFIP 4.92 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 22 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .597
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 29.5%, L7 23.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.9%, L7 6.5%, season 8.9%, BVP 9.1%/22 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.00 | Season Avg 15.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.59 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.59 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Dylan Cease Over 18.5 (+111) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 18.3 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books | 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	17.5	-215	+150	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	18.5	+111	-148	-
DK	18.5	+111	-147	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+116	-158	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 21.05 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 13.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 7.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.68 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 18.3 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 121, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 121
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 120 PA | K% 35.8% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .194 | OPS .618
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.5%, L7 21.5%, season 21.8%, BVP 35.8%/120 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 11.6%, L7 9.6%, season 10.9%, BVP 9.2%/120 PA (adj 1.13x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 7.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/20 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.60 | Season Avg 17.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.55 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.55 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nolan McLean Over 17.5 (-165) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	17.5	-170	+125	-
DK	17.5	-165	+124	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 18.762 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.34 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .571 | OPS 1.524
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 16.1%, L7 19.2%, season 22.2% (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 9.8%, L7 11.5%, season 9.7% (adj 1.11x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.6%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.80 | Season Avg 17.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Braxton Ashcraft Under 17.5 (-130) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	17.5	-107	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-102	-130	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-102	-132	-
Fanatics	17.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 16.546000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.27 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.2 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 80, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 80
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 26 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .208 | OPS .728
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 23.8%, L7 24.9%, season 21.2%, BVP 26.9%/26 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.9%, split 10.9%, L7 13.0%, season 10.7%, BVP 7.7%/26 PA (adj 1.15x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.80 | Season Avg 17.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cristopher Sanchez Over 19.5 (-101) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 19.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 19.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 19.5 | selected line 19.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 19.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 19.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	19.5	-110	-125	-
DK	19.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 20.508 vs line 19.5 | DIFF% 5.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.60 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 19.5 | selected line 19.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 74 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .303 | OPS .697
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 26.4%, L7 22.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 20.3%/74 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 9.2%, L7 10.7%, season 9.2%, BVP 8.1%/74 PA (adj 1.06x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 19.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 18.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 19.5; recent avg down -1.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 19.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 19.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cristopher Sánchez Over 19.5 (-105) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 19.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 19.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 19.5 | selected line 19.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 19.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 19.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 20.508 vs line 19.5 | DIFF% 5.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.60 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.9 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 74 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .303 | OPS .697
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 26.4%, L7 22.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 20.3%/74 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 9.2%, L7 10.7%, season 9.2%, BVP 8.1%/74 PA (adj 1.06x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 19.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 18.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 19.5; recent avg down -1.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 19.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 19.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Brandon Young Over 17.5 (-116) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	17.5	-122	-109	-
DK	17.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-122	-110	-
Fanatics	17.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.114 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.42 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.100
Opponent K profile: composite 27.2%, split 26.6%, L7 30.3%, season 25.3% (adj 1.11x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 11.2%, L7 4.2%, season 8.4% (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 17.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryce Miller Over 17.5 (-149) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	17.5	-145	+109	-
DK	17.5	-149	+112	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-132	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.964 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.63 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 67 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 1.5% | AVG .212 | OPS .512
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.3%, L7 19.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.9%/67 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 10.7%, L7 9.9%, season 9.3%, BVP 1.5%/67 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/13 (23%) | Season 3/13 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 17.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Framber Valdez Under 17.5 (+119) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +119

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	17.5	-162	+122	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-159	+119	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-146	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.332 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.21 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 175 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .288 | OPS .785
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.2%, L7 20.8%, season 22.9%, BVP 22.3%/175 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 10.6%, L7 11.5%, season 8.9%, BVP 10.3%/175 PA (adj 1.11x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.80 | Season Avg 16.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael Wacha Under 18.5 (-180) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 18.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	18.5	+137	-182	-
DK	18.5	+135	-180	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	18.5	+150	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.497 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.26 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.8% / under 60.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 110 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .233 | OPS .748
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.4%, L7 20.2%, season 21.5%, BVP 20.0%/110 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 7.5%, L7 6.2%, season 8.6%, BVP 6.4%/110 PA (adj 0.92x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.90 | Season Avg 18.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cristopher Sanchez Over 5.5 (+120) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.15 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.39, BB% 5.5%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 19.5 outs/6.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 74 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .303 | OPS .697
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 26.4%, L7 22.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 20.3%/74 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 6.13
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nolan McLean Under 5.5 (-137) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.75 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.12, BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.14x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .571 | OPS 1.524
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 16.1%, L7 19.2%, season 22.2% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/22 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Young Under 5.5 (-133) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.94 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.29, BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.94x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.100
Opponent K profile: composite 27.2%, split 26.6%, L7 30.3%, season 25.3% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Miles Mikolas Under 6.5 (-110) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.8 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 10.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.23 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 4.8%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Miles Mikolas: 222 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .268 | OPS .715
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 19.5%, L7 15.6%, season 23.3%, BVP 13.5%/222 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 18/23 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — David Peterson Under 5.5 (-166) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+124	-166	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.40, BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.7% / under 58.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 49 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .214 | OPS .598
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 17.1%, L7 19.3%, season 19.5%, BVP 16.3%/49 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Framber Valdez Over 5.5 (+113) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -145 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -145 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 +113; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-145	+105	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+113	-150	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.03 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.38, BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 175 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .288 | OPS .785
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.2%, L7 20.8%, season 22.9%, BVP 22.3%/175 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Luis Castillo Over 5.5 (-140) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.08 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.39, BB% 7.2%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Luis Castillo: 85 PA | K% 22.4% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .342 | OPS .978
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.9%, L7 19.9%, season 21.9%, BVP 22.4%/85 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bailey Ober Over 5.5 (-104) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.08 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.36, BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 139 PA | K% 18.0% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .282 | OPS .836
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 24.0%, L7 16.0%, season 21.2%, BVP 18.0%/139 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/16 (38%) | Season 6/16 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael Wacha Under 5.5 (+103) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +103

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-140	+100	-
DK	5.5	-136	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.89 over 5.9 IP (WHIP 1.18, BB% 6.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.9% / under 46.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 110 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .233 | OPS .748
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.4%, L7 20.2%, season 21.5%, BVP 20.0%/110 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 5.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ryan Johnson Over 1.5 (-161) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8113936801589892 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.3 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 17 PA | K% 41.2% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .062 | OPS .180
Opponent K profile: composite 27.4%, split 24.3%, L7 28.9%, season 24.4%, BVP 41.2%/17 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 10.4%, L7 9.9%, season 10.2%, BVP 5.9%/17 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/12 (33%) | Season 4/12 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — David Peterson Over 1.5 (-197) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -197 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -197

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -197 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7306263273218634 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.8 IP (BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 62.1% / under 37.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 49 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .214 | OPS .598
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 17.1%, L7 19.3%, season 19.5%, BVP 16.3%/49 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 8.3%, L7 6.7%, season 7.2%, BVP 10.2%/49 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kohl Drake Over 1.5 (-131) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6615705387601267 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.4 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.8%, L7 22.1%, season 22.1% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.3%, L7 8.7%, season 9.2% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.67 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/3 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Braxton Ashcraft Under 1.5 (-121) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4910574475677754 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.25 over 5.3 IP (BB% 5.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.8% / under 51.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.15x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 26 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .208 | OPS .728
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 23.8%, L7 24.9%, season 21.2%, BVP 26.9%/26 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.9%, split 10.9%, L7 13.0%, season 10.7%, BVP 7.7%/26 PA (adj 1.15x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 13 play(s) (C 13)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Mason Barnett Under 2.5 (+109) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +109

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.67 over 3.8 IP (xFIP 4.31, ERA 5.53)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 2.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 23.5%, L7 29.7%, season 25.2% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/15 (80%) | Season 12/15 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Miles Mikolas Under 3.5 (-140) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 3.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 3.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.9 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 17.1% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.58 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.75, ERA 5.99)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Miles Mikolas: 222 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .268 | OPS .715
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 19.5%, L7 15.6%, season 23.3%, BVP 13.5%/222 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 3.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Braxton Ashcraft Under 2.5 (-159) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.62 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.27, ERA 4.91)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 26 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .208 | OPS .728
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 23.8%, L7 24.9%, season 21.2%, BVP 26.9%/26 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ranger Suarez Over 1.5 (-166) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 58.3% / Under 41.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-166	+124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-185	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.11 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.22, ERA 3.45)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.3% / under 41.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 32 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .911
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 21.4%, L7 28.2%, season 23.9%, BVP 15.6%/32 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Wacha Over 2.5 (-119) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-119	-111	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.09 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 4.26, ERA 3.80)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 110 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .233 | OPS .748
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.4%, L7 20.2%, season 21.5%, BVP 20.0%/110 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bailey Ober Over 2.5 (-125) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.94 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.77, ERA 4.97)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 139 PA | K% 18.0% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .282 | OPS .836
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 24.0%, L7 16.0%, season 21.2%, BVP 18.0%/139 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Abbott Over 2.5 (-112) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.74 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.92, ERA 3.94)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 22 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .597
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 29.5%, L7 23.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — David Peterson Over 2.5 (+110) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.81 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.16, ERA 5.31)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 49 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .214 | OPS .598
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 17.1%, L7 19.3%, season 19.5%, BVP 16.3%/49 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Framber Valdez Over 2.5 (+108) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.30 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 4.34)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 175 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .288 | OPS .785
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.2%, L7 20.8%, season 22.9%, BVP 22.3%/175 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/22 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Janson Junk Under 2.5 (-110) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.23 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.30, ERA 4.19)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 45 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .311 | OPS .800
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.9%, L7 18.3%, season 21.3%, BVP 20.0%/45 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kohl Drake Over 2.5 (+100) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.27 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.42, ERA 4.55)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.8%, L7 22.1%, season 22.1% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/3 (33%) | L10 1/3 (33%) | L20 1/3 (33%) | Season 1/3 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/3 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Young Under 2.5 (-139) Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.14 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.42, ERA 3.50)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.100
Opponent K profile: composite 27.2%, split 26.6%, L7 30.3%, season 25.3% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Walker Buehler Under 2.5 (-141) Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.98 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.28, ERA 6.01)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 122 PA | K% 18.0% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .296 | OPS .919
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 18.4%, L7 17.9%, season 19.2%, BVP 18.0%/122 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 21 play(s) (C 21)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-216) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -216

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
DK	1.5	+161	-216	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ryan Jeffers Under 1.5 (-258) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+190	-258	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-222) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -222 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -222

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -222 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +195; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+195	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-
DK	1.5	+165	-222	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.85 (AVG 0.227)
Base projection 0.85 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 19 PA | 7/18 | HR 1 | K% 5.3% | BB% 5.3% | OPS 1.088
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/39 (28%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/110 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.85
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/55 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter Hits: 85/110 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Sal Stewart Under 1.5 (-272) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -272

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	Recommended
DK	1.5	+200	-272	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.96 (AVG 0.255)
Base projection 0.96 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.276 (64 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/33 (30%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/113 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 46/59 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter Hits: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 86/113 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bryce Harper Under 1.5 (-230) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -230

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+170	-235	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
DK	1.5	+170	-230	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.89 (AVG 0.252)
Base projection 0.89 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.229 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 29 PA | 9/27 | HR 2 | K% 20.7% | BB% 6.9% | OPS 1.009
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/35 (26%) | L5 4/16 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/115 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.89
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 47/58 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter Hits: 45/57 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter Hits: 92/115 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-269) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -269

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+198	-269	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.96 (AVG 0.259)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.378 (32 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 36 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/38 (26%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/108 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter Hits: 41/54 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 79/108 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Gunnar Henderson Under 1.5 (-254) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -254

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+187	-254	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.89 (AVG 0.219)
Base projection 0.89 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.368 (28 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 6/36 (17%) | L5 3/14 (21%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/113 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.89
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 48/61 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter Hits: 42/52 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.92 | Day Batter Hits: 90/113 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Pete Alonso Under 1.5 (-249) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -249 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -249 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+184	-249	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.93 (AVG 0.248)
Base projection 0.93 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/38 (24%) | L5 4/17 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 87/114 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 48/61 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter Hits: 39/53 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 87/114 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-241) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -241

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+178	-241	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.256)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.294 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/42 (26%) | L5 4/21 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 82/114 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 45/58 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter Hits: 82/114 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Matt Olson Under 1.5 (-278) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -278 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -278

Selected market: Over 31.0% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -278 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Recommended
DK	1.5	+203	-278	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.266)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.290 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/38 (26%) | L5 7/18 (39%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 83/114 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/58 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter Hits: 43/56 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 83/114 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Wilyer Abreu Under 1.5 (-253) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -253 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -253

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -253 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+187	-253	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.97 (AVG 0.254)
Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.318 (140 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/39 (26%) | L5 7/19 (37%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/111 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/56 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter Hits: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 80/111 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Drake Baldwin Under 1.5 (-247) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+182	-247	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.272)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.350 (47 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/38 (26%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/91 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 33/49 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 30/42 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 63/91 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Michael Harris II Under 1.5 (-236) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+175	-236	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.290)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.350 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/37 (19%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/108 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/53 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter Hits: 76/108 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 1.5 (-256) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+189	-256	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.287)
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.267 (128 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 15/41 (37%) | L5 8/20 (40%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/56 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter Hits: 77/109 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-170) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.250)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.328 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 34 PA | 11/33 | HR 0 | K% 8.8% | BB% 2.9% | OPS .807
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/43 (33%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 83/112 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 83/112 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 (-246) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+182	-246	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+180	-245	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.278)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.296 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 15 PA | 5/12 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/37 (19%) | L5 5/17 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 83/110 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/57 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 41/53 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 83/110 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Elly De La Cruz Under 1.5 (-266) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -266

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+196	-266	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.277)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.436 (29 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/39 (28%) | L5 4/17 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/94 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter Hits: 35/45 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 66/94 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-261) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+192	-261	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.281)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.305 (59 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 28 PA | 12/28 | HR 1 | K% 10.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.179
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/39 (20%) | L5 3/17 (18%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/96 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/50 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter Hits: 34/46 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 68/96 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-210) diff 20.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -210

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+157	-210	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.28 (AVG 0.320)
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.173 (55 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 46 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/42 (21%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 67/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 33/56 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter Hits: 34/55 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 67/111 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-236) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+190	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+175	-236	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+180	-245	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.280)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.417 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.277 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/40 (25%) | L5 3/19 (16%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/113 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 43/58 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 82/113 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-200) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
DK	1.5	+149	-200	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.30 (AVG 0.324)
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.300 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 19 PA | 5/19 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .526
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/43 (33%) | L5 4/21 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/107 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 28/51 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter Hits: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 65/107 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 160 play(s) (C 160)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (+105) diff 54.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+105	-139	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+105	-146	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.80
Base projection 0.80 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/95 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/48 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter Walks: 26/47 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.87 | Day Batter Walks: 51/95 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.80

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-478) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -478

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+319	-478	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/115 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 89/115 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-355) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -355 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -355

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -355 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+245	-355	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/115 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 89/115 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-400) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/115 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 89/115 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (+110) diff 50.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+110	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 2 | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.073
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 53/114 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/58 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 26/56 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.66 | Day Batter Walks: 53/114 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.59

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-265) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 33 PA | 7/30 | HR 2 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .770
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/110 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 79/110 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-429) diff 49.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -429 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -429

Selected market: Over 24.0% / Under 76.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -429 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+290	-429	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 58/80 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/41 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 32/39 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 58/80 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-254) diff 48.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -254 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -254

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -254 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+180	-254	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 75/113 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-280) diff 44.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -280 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+197	-280	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/106 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 74/106 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-335) diff 44.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -335

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+232	-335	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/112 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 85/112 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-375) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.5% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/107 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 74/107 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-312) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -312 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -312

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -312 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+218	-312	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/112 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 85/112 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-450) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.81x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/107 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 35/56 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 71/107 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-425) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.81x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/107 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 35/56 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 71/107 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-375) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.66x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 28 PA | 12/28 | HR 1 | K% 10.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.179
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/96 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/50 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 25/46 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 60/96 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (+122) diff 42.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +122

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+125	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+122	-170	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.77
Base projection 0.77 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 38 PA | 15/34 | HR 0 | K% 18.4% | BB% 7.9% | OPS 1.003
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/113 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.77
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/61 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 28/52 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.75 | Day Batter Walks: 63/113 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.77

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (+193) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +193 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +193

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +193 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	-
DK	0.5	+193	-274	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 59/114 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 59/114 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.71

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-225) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 72/107 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 72/107 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Smith Under 0.5 (-525) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/114 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 84/114 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-280) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/106 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 73/106 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-255) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-525) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-375) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-195) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leo Jimenez Under 0.5 (-300) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-375) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-350) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-500) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-225) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-240) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-375) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-425) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — John Rave Under 0.5 (-340) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-475) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-210) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-400) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joey Bart Under 0.5 (-320) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-330) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-225) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brenton Doyle Under 0.5 (-450) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-255) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.81x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brady House Under 0.5 (-525) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-500) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-320) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-475) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Pinckney Under 0.5 (-525) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-245) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/103 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 32/53 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 66/103 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (-105) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/85 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/44 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.70 | Away Batter Walks: 18/41 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 42/85 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.60

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-216) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -216 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -216

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -216 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+154	-216	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/103 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 29/49 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 64/103 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-238) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -238 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -238

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -238 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+169	-238	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/112 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/57 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 31/55 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 64/112 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.53

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-158) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -158

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+105	-139	-
DK	0.5	+114	-158	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-204) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+146	-204	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-257) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -257

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+182	-257	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-261) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+182	-250	-
DK	0.5	+184	-261	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-279) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -279

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+196	-279	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-295) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -295

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+206	-295	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-322) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -322

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+223	-322	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-329) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -329 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -329

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -329 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+228	-329	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-338) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -338

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+234	-338	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jase Bowen Under 0.5 (-534) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -534

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+325	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+352	-534	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 (+103) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +103

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+103	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 39/98 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/50 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.68 | Away Batter Walks: 14/48 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 39/98 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.53

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-240) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+171	-240	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+170	-240	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/94 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 30/43 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 68/94 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-245) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/114 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 73/114 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Davis Schneider Under 0.5 (-245) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+174	-245	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Urias Under 0.5 (-273) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+192	-273	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-283) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -283

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+198	-283	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-475) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 22.5% / Under 77.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+318	-475	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-340) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-295) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -295 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -295

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -295 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+206	-295	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-342) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -342 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -342

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -342 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+236	-342	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-378) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -378 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -378

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -378 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+259	-378	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Angel Genao Under 0.5 (-409) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -409 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -409

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -409 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+278	-409	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-525) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-178) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -178 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+128	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-190) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+137	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-272) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -272 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -272

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -272 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+192	-272	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-371) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -371

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+254	-371	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-391) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -391

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+267	-391	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-439) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -439 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -439

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -439 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-478) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -478 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -478

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -478 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+319	-478	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leo Rivas Under 0.5 (-215) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-241) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -241

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+171	-241	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 38 PA | 7/37 | HR 2 | K% 28.9% | BB% 2.6% | OPS .616
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/108 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/52 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 77/108 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 (+128) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +128

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+128	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/115 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/58 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 22/57 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 44/115 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.52

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-212) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -209 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -212

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -209 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+152	-212	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-242) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -242

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+171	-242	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-263) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -263 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -263 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+188	-265	-
DK	0.5	+185	-263	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-342) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -342 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -342

Selected market: Over 27.7% / Under 72.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -342 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+237	-342	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alika Williams Under 0.5 (-409) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -409 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -409

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -409 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+278	-409	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-245) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brian Serven Under 0.5 (-400) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-270) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-245) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-170) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-310) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy (2002) Under 0.5 (-215) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-158) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -158

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+120	-159	-
DK	0.5	+114	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-187) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+134	-187	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-204) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -204 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -204 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	-
DK	0.5	+146	-204	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-271) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -271 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -271

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -271 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+190	-271	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-297) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -297

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+208	-297	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Franklin Under 0.5 (-302) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -302 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -302

Selected market: Over 30.0% / Under 70.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -302 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+211	-302	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-305) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -305 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -305

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -305 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+213	-305	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-363) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -363 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -363

Selected market: Over 26.7% / Under 73.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -363 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+250	-363	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-402) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -402 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -402

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -402 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+274	-402	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-434) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -434 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -434

Selected market: Over 23.8% / Under 76.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -434 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+293	-434	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-445) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -445 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -445

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -445 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+300	-445	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Over 0.5 (+147) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+147	-205	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/102 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/48 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 19/54 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 39/102 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.50

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-291) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -291

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+204	-291	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/112 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 78/112 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-229) diff 28.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -229

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	-
DK	0.5	+163	-229	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 34 PA | 9/31 | HR 0 | K% 11.8% | BB% 8.8% | OPS .740
BVP walk adjustment: 1.01x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/53 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/109 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-240) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/111 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 71/111 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-379) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -379 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -379

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -379 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+260	-379	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 15 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .420
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 74/108 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-255) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 39 PA | 9/33 | HR 1 | K% 30.8% | BB% 12.8% | OPS .748
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 39 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/104 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/53 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 71/104 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Endy Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-277) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -277

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+195	-277	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 39 PA | 9/33 | HR 1 | K% 30.8% | BB% 12.8% | OPS .748
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 39 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/104 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/53 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 71/104 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-299) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -299 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -299

Selected market: Over 30.2% / Under 69.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -299 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+209	-299	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 39 PA | 9/33 | HR 1 | K% 30.8% | BB% 12.8% | OPS .748
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 39 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/104 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/53 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 71/104 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-320) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/91 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/49 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 26/42 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 56/91 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-220) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -220

Selected market: Over 36.1% / Under 63.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+157	-220	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-236) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+167	-236	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-237) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -237 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -237 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+177	-245	-
DK	0.5	+168	-237	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-312) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -312 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -312

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -312 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+217	-312	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-353) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -353 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -353

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -353 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+243	-353	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-407) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -407 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -407

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -407 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+277	-407	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-482) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -480 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -482

Selected market: Over 22.2% / Under 77.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -480 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+322	-482	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-510) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -510

Selected market: Over 21.4% / Under 78.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+325	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+338	-510	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (+143) diff 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+143	-200	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 52/116 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 21/59 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 52/116 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-206) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+147	-206	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/113 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/61 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 77/113 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (-104) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-110	-121	-
DK	0.5	-104	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .722
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/111 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/54 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 25/57 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 50/111 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-212) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -205 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -212

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -205 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+150	-205	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+151	-212	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 74/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 74/113 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-164) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -164

Selected market: Over 42.4% / Under 57.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+126	-170	-
DK	0.5	+119	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/102 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 26/50 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 60/102 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-436) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -436 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -436

Selected market: Over 23.8% / Under 76.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -436 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+294	-436	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.833
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/107 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 72/107 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-253) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -253 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -253

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -253 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+179	-253	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.833
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/107 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 72/107 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-218) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -218 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -218

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -218 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -218; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+156	-218	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.833
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/107 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 72/107 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (+200) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/110 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/55 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 21/55 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 47/110 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 30.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-289) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -289 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -289

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -289 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+203	-289	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/111 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 32/56 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 71/111 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 (+128) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +128

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+128	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/111 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/54 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 23/57 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 47/111 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-185) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 0.70x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 29 PA | 9/27 | HR 2 | K% 20.7% | BB% 6.9% | OPS 1.009
BVP walk adjustment: 0.93x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/115 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/58 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 30/57 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 59/115 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-200) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 29 PA | 11/24 | HR 1 | K% 20.7% | BB% 13.8% | OPS 1.302
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 63/105 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/54 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 63/105 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-193) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -193 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -193

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -193 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	-
DK	0.5	+139	-193	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/108 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/57 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 59/108 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 (+165) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +165

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 33/83 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/42 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 15/41 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 33/83 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pedro Ramirez Over 0.5 (+207) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +210 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +207

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+207	-295	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 33/83 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/42 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 15/41 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 33/83 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 30.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Agustín Ramírez Over 0.5 (+175) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +175

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 33/83 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/42 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 15/41 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 33/83 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-240) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/112 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/55 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 34/57 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 64/112 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 (+175) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +175

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 44/115 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/57 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 27/58 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 44/115 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-253) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -253

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+179	-253	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 24 PA | 5/20 | HR 1 | K% 20.8% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.025
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/107 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 71/107 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Harry Ford Over 0.5 (+215) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +215 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +215

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 35/87 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/42 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 14/45 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 35/87 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 29.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 (+100) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 39/94 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/49 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 17/45 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 39/94 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-199) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -199

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+143	-199	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 53/84 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/48 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 23/36 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 53/84 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-176) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -176

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	-
DK	0.5	+126	-176	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/97 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 25/44 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 60/97 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-375) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/90 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/43 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 30/47 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 58/90 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-191) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -191 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -191

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -191 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+137	-191	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/112 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 36/57 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 70/112 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Over 0.5 (+170) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+170	-240	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/106 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/53 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 16/53 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 43/106 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Over 0.5 (+126) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+126	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 16 PA | 3/16 | HR 0 | K% 31.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/112 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/58 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 20/54 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 47/112 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-239) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -239 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -239

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -239 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+170	-239	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/110 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 75/110 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Over 0.5 (+138) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	-
DK	0.5	+138	-193	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 44/114 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/61 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 20/53 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 44/114 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-302) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -302

Selected market: Over 30.0% / Under 70.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+211	-302	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/52 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 30/57 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 68/109 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-364) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -364 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -364

Selected market: Over 26.7% / Under 73.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -364 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+250	-364	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.43x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 15 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .830
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/113 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 82/113 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-185) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+133	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/110 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/55 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 58/110 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (+166) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +166 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +166

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +166 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+166	-234	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 29/83 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/43 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 13/40 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 29/83 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-140) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.66
Base projection 0.66 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 37 PA | 6/34 | HR 1 | K% 24.3% | BB% 8.1% | OPS .537
BVP walk adjustment: 0.98x from 37 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/109 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.66
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/55 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 21/54 under 0.5 (39%), avg 0.70 | Day Batter Walks: 50/109 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Over 0.5 (+145) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 43/113 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/59 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 18/54 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 43/113 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 (+160) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 35.7% / Under 64.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+160	-225	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 36/108 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/54 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 18/54 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 36/108 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 168 play(s) (C 168)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (-102) diff 74.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 74.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.62
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 63/114 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/59 over 1.5 (70%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 63/114 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.62

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+128) diff 62.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.51
Base projection 2.51 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.359, xSLG 0.550 (56 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 21 PA | 6/19 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 4.8% | OPS .697
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/112 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 66/112 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 62.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 62.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Lowe Over 1.5 (+131) diff 59.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.216, xSLG 0.268 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.833
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 56/107 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter HRR: 56/107 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (+119) diff 59.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.216, xSLG 0.268 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.833
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 56/107 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter HRR: 56/107 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-108) diff 59.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.216, xSLG 0.268 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.833
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 56/107 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter HRR: 56/107 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-165) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.383 (47 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/91 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/49 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.59 | Away Batter HRR: 23/42 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 54/91 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-129) diff 56.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.417 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.380 (67 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/112 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.09 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 53/112 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (-132) diff 54.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-132	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.417 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.237, xSLG 0.318 (49 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 53/112 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 53/112 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-157) diff 53.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-157	+118	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.290, xSLG 0.422 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/114 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/58 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.50 | Day Batter HRR: 66/114 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-154) diff 50.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.451 (59 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 28 PA | 12/28 | HR 1 | K% 10.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.179
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/96 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 26/46 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 54/96 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-161) diff 50.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.405 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 15 PA | 5/12 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/110 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/57 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 58/110 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-151) diff 48.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-157	+117	-
DK	1.5	-151	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.316 (128 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 62/109 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/56 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 30/53 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 62/109 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-158) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.173, xSLG 0.234 (55 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 72/111 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 35/55 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 72/111 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (-114) diff 47.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.334 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 24 PA | 5/20 | HR 1 | K% 20.8% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.025
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/107 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 56/107 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-135) diff 47.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-135	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.358, xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 34 PA | 9/31 | HR 0 | K% 11.8% | BB% 8.8% | OPS .740
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/109 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/53 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.53 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 58/109 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-105) diff 46.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.332, xSLG 0.456 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/108 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.51 | Day Batter HRR: 63/108 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-122) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-122	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.39
Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.376 (20 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/80 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/41 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 26/39 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 47/80 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-158) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.2% / Under 42.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 2.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-158	+118	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.331 (64 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/113 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 57/113 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+102) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.410 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/110 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 62/110 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-121) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-121	-109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.250, xSLG 0.344 (91 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/114 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 63/114 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (-122) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.352, xSLG 0.465 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.556
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/100 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 45/100 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-143) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -143; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-143	+108	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.410, xSLG 0.584 (66 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/111 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 58/111 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (-101) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.288 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/112 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 56/112 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (+106) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.375, xSLG 0.488 (59 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/115 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter HRR: 32/57 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 66/115 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hector Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-103) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.482 (27 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 39 PA | 9/33 | HR 1 | K% 30.8% | BB% 12.8% | OPS .748
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 39 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/104 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/53 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 60/104 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-135) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-135	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.482 (27 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 39 PA | 9/33 | HR 1 | K% 30.8% | BB% 12.8% | OPS .748
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 39 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/104 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/53 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 60/104 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+105) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.353, xSLG 0.383 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/116 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/57 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 66/116 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+128) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.482 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 58/98 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.32 | Away Batter HRR: 30/48 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 58/98 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (+105) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.407, xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/115 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 56/115 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Young Over 1.5 (+131) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +131; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.407, xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/115 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 56/115 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+111) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.336 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/102 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.42 | Day Batter HRR: 49/102 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-111) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.356, xSLG 0.361 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/112 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 56/112 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-128) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.436 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/95 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.45 | Day Batter HRR: 46/95 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-125) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.251, xSLG 0.311 (81 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.08 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 56/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-128) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.294, xSLG 0.436 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/114 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 58/114 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-108) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.292 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .933 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/112 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/58 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 58/112 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-112) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.365 (85 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 33 PA | 7/30 | HR 2 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .770
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/110 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 33/56 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 60/110 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-103) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.417 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 44/84 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 15/36 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 44/84 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-117) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.475, xSLG 0.571 (15 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/110 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 57/110 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-105) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.268, xSLG 0.243 (15 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/105 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.58 | Day Batter HRR: 56/105 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-118) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-118	-112	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.266, xSLG 0.368 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/106 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/58 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 58/106 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-131) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.378, xSLG 0.528 (32 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/108 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 50/108 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-114) diff 27.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -114; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.445 (50 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 40/90 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 21/47 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 40/90 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-102) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.310, xSLG 0.366 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/97 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 49/97 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (-113) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.248, xSLG 0.301 (55 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/109 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/55 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 57/109 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-110) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.230, xSLG 0.227 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 53/102 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 53/102 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (-134) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -134; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.314, xSLG 0.398 (130 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 1 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .643
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/106 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 49/106 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (+106) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.439, xSLG 0.732 (29 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/113 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 51/113 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 (-111) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.417 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.224, xSLG 0.226 (34 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/109 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter HRR: 47/109 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (-137) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-137	+103	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.365 (115 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/106 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 47/106 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (-102) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.322 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/110 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 49/110 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (-132) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-132	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.297 (38 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 23 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 8.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .447
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 55/109 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Under 2.5 (-166) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+123	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+125	-166	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 19 PA | 7/18 | HR 1 | K% 5.3% | BB% 5.3% | OPS 1.088
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/110 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/55 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 42/55 under 2.5 (76%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 77/110 under 2.5 (70%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (-113) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.360, xSLG 0.418 (48 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/94 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 23/43 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 49/94 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+101) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	+101	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.217, xSLG 0.263 (83 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/110 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 53/110 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-126) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.298 (71 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 60/115 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 60/115 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+104) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.298 (63 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 38 PA | 7/37 | HR 2 | K% 28.9% | BB% 2.6% | OPS .616
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/108 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter HRR: 51/108 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-130) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.273, xSLG 0.363 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/106 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 46/106 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (-131) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.282, xSLG 0.343 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/85 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/44 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 22/41 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 40/85 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pedro Ramirez Over 1.5 (+126) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.390, xSLG 0.323 (26 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/83 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/42 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 39/83 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+108) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.442 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 53/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+114) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.442 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 53/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (-130) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.188, xSLG 0.224 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/107 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 49/107 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-117) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.284 (57 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .722
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/111 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 50/111 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (-103) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.213, xSLG 0.214 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/110 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 59/110 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Ward Over 1.5 (-103) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.274, xSLG 0.220 (29 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 38 PA | 15/34 | HR 0 | K% 18.4% | BB% 7.9% | OPS 1.003
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 51/113 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/61 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 51/113 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Under 2.5 (-158) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+117	-157	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+119	-158	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.14 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.368, xSLG 0.560 (28 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/113 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/61 under 2.5 (64%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 34/52 under 2.5 (65%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 73/113 under 2.5 (65%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (+124) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+124	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.400, xSLG 0.513 (33 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/103 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 47/103 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Under 2.5 (-144) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+113	-150	-
DK	2.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.16 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.421 (140 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/56 under 2.5 (70%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 36/55 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 75/111 under 2.5 (68%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (+126) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.247, xSLG 0.294 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 15 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .830
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/113 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 54/113 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Under 2.5 (-132) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+103	-137	-
DK	2.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.20 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.392 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 37 PA | 6/34 | HR 1 | K% 24.3% | BB% 8.1% | OPS .537
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 37 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 70/109 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/55 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.31 | Away Batter HRR: 35/54 under 2.5 (65%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 70/109 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Under 2.5 (-163) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.22 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.501 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/108 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/53 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 36/55 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 69/108 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+100) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.263 (14 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 41/83 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/43 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 20/40 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 41/83 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (-117) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.251, xSLG 0.315 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 35 PA | 8/33 | HR 2 | K% 31.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .742
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 35 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/107 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter HRR: 42/107 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (+130) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.200, xSLG 0.216 (68 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 2 | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.073
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 56/114 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 56/114 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+130) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.373 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 16 PA | 3/16 | HR 0 | K% 31.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/112 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 57/112 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-107) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.253, xSLG 0.263 (29 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/112 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 55/112 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (+109) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.237, xSLG 0.253 (33 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 15 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .420
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/108 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 49/108 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Under 2.5 (-143) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+105	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+108	-143	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.28 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.229, xSLG 0.253 (44 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 29 PA | 9/27 | HR 2 | K% 20.7% | BB% 6.9% | OPS 1.009
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/115 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/58 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 38/57 under 2.5 (67%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 74/115 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Over 1.5 (-109) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.244, xSLG 0.281 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/113 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 47/113 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Under 2.5 (-150) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+115	-154	-
DK	2.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.34 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/114 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/61 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 34/53 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 72/114 under 2.5 (63%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-127) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.281, xSLG 0.292 (15 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 62/106 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter HRR: 62/106 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (-113) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+112) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+118) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+118	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+118) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+118	-158	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+119) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cooper Pratt Over 1.5 (+126) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (+101) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.207, xSLG 0.219 (41 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/106 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter HRR: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 52/106 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Under 2.5 (-137) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+105	-139	-
DK	2.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.36 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.438 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 34 PA | 11/33 | HR 0 | K% 8.8% | BB% 2.9% | OPS .807
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/112 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.53 | Away Batter HRR: 40/55 under 2.5 (73%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 73/112 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (-133) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (-107) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brady House Over 1.5 (+128) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (+122) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.192, xSLG 0.195 (25 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/112 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.23 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 54/112 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andres Gimenez Under 1.5 (-178) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.347 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/109 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/55 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter HRR: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter HRR: 71/109 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (-154) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (-116) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+101) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	+101	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James Jarvis Over 1.5 (+115) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Yastrzemski Over 1.5 (+117) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Griffin Conine Over 1.5 (+125) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leo Jimenez Over 1.5 (+131) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Under 2.5 (-160) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+117	-157	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+120	-160	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.39 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 19 PA | 5/19 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .526
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/107 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 under 2.5 (51%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 37/56 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 63/107 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcus Semien Under 1.5 (-148) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+112	-148	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.221, xSLG 0.271 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 62/96 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter HRR: 27/47 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 62/96 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (-137) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (-124) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randal Grichuk Over 1.5 (-106) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (-104) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+109) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joey Bart Over 1.5 (+118) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brenton Doyle Over 1.5 (+121) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Connor Wong Over 1.5 (+124) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (-101) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Urias Over 1.5 (+108) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Myles Straw Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (-144) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-144	+108	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (-120) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-120	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (-114) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (-105) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (+104) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Isbel Over 1.5 (+125) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Kreidler Over 1.5 (+129) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alan Roden Over 1.5 (+132) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Smith Under 1.5 (-165) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/114 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/59 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 67/114 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-148) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-148	+111	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (-132) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-132	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (-109) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (-108) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (-107) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (-105) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Over 1.5 (-103) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (+106) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 1.5 (+107) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+110) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Matt McLain Over 1.5 (+113) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+113	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 (-111) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-119	-111	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 (-113) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 1.5 -113; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Robert Jr. Under 1.5 (-146) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Genao Under 1.5 (-165) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (-104) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -104; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+104) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 (+108) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brendan Donovan Over 1.5 (+115) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+127) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Clark Over 1.5 (+130) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Under 2.5 (-147) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+109	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+110	-147	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.46 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.436, xSLG 0.673 (29 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/94 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/49 under 2.5 (53%), avg 2.47 | Away Batter HRR: 28/45 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 54/94 under 2.5 (57%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Over 1.5 (-120) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 33/87 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/42 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 33/87 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (-149) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (-143) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -143; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-143	+108	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (-121) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -121; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-121	-109	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (-120) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-120	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 (-110) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-110	-121	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Franklin Over 1.5 (-101) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Coby Mayo Over 1.5 (+103) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Moises Ballesteros Over 1.5 (+108) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (+111) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colton Cowser Over 1.5 (+120) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Heineman Over 1.5 (+122) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Narvaez Over 1.5 (+129) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (-136) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-136	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (-132) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-132	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-126) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (-107) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Kepler Over 1.5 (+114) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Campusano Over 1.5 (+116) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tim Tawa Over 1.5 (+117) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (+119) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Collins Over 1.5 (-101) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.357 (16 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 43/103 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 16/53 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter HRR: 43/103 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ Batter Total Bases — 210 play(s) (C 206 | D 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 0.5 (-160) diff 314.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 314.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.550 (56 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 21 PA | 6/19 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 4.8% | OPS .697
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/112 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/56 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 40/56 over 0.5 (71%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter TB: 78/112 over 0.5 (70%), avg 2.09

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 314% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Lowe Over 0.5 (-160) diff 292.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.96 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 292.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.268 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.833
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/107 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 37/52 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 72/107 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.91

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 292% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathaniel Lowe Over 0.5 (-165) diff 292.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.96 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 292.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.268 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.833
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/107 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 37/52 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 72/107 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.91

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 292% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hector Rodriguez Over 0.5 (-180) diff 247.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 247.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.482 (27 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 39 PA | 9/33 | HR 1 | K% 30.8% | BB% 12.8% | OPS .748
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 39 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/104 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/53 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 73/104 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.65

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 247% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Endy Rodriguez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 247.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 247.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.482 (27 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 39 PA | 9/33 | HR 1 | K% 30.8% | BB% 12.8% | OPS .748
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 39 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/104 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/53 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 73/104 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.65

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 247% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-130) diff 226.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 0.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
Fanatics	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/115 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 77/115 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.51

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Over 0.5 (-165) diff 226.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-193	+142	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/115 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 77/115 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.51

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-175) diff 226.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/115 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 77/115 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.51

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Triolo Over 0.5 (-140) diff 222.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 0.5 (-160) diff 222.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Over 0.5 (-200) diff 222.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cooper Pratt Over 0.5 (-150) diff 222.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Gonzalez Over 0.5 (-155) diff 222.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	-
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 222.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 222.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Lara Over 0.5 (-135) diff 222.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (-105) diff 222.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-102	-127	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-104	-129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Davis Over 0.5 (-110) diff 222.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 (-155) diff 221.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.482 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 66/98 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/50 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 33/48 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 66/98 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.82

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brady House Over 0.5 (-160) diff 220.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrés Chaparro Over 0.5 (-165) diff 220.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorbit Vivas Over 0.5 (-143) diff 220.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Pinckney Over 0.5 (-115) diff 220.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joe Mack Over 0.5 (-160) diff 218.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +199; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 (-150) diff 218.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leo Jimenez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 218.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 (-175) diff 218.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Jarvis Over 0.5 (-165) diff 218.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-164	+124	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (-115) diff 218.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 (-165) diff 214.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.442 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/107 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 32/56 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 61/107 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.67

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 (-180) diff 214.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.442 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/107 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 32/56 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 61/107 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.67

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Connor Wong Over 0.5 (-160) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 (-165) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luisangel Acuna Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 0.5 (-185) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
Fanatics	0.5	-185	+140	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joey Bart Over 0.5 (-169) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -169

Selected market: Over 59.1% / Under 40.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brenton Doyle Over 0.5 (-180) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-173	+128	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Myles Straw Over 0.5 (-165) diff 212.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
Fanatics	0.5	-145	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 0.5 (-135) diff 212.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 0.5 (-160) diff 212.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Shaw Over 0.5 (-140) diff 212.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
INJURY: [IL] Matt Shaw -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ Role/Injury: [IL] Matt Shaw -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 212.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Davis Schneider Over 0.5 (-110) diff 212.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Isbel Over 0.5 (-155) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — John Rave Over 0.5 (-135) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-122	-106	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 0.5 (-185) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-193	+143	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alan Roden Over 0.5 (-150) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Kreidler Over 0.5 (-125) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt McLain Over 0.5 (-140) diff 210.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 0.5 (-180) diff 210.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Donovan Walton Over 0.5 (-150) diff 210.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 0.5 (-190) diff 210.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.6% / Under 38.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 0.5 -190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-192	+145	-
Fanatics	0.5	-190	+145	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 0.5 (-164) diff 210.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.3% / Under 41.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 0.5 (-140) diff 210.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-135) diff 209.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach McKinstry Over 0.5 (-135) diff 209.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 0.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRaw BestVerify
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Baez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 209.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 0.5 (-160) diff 209.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 (-175) diff 209.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Clark Over 0.5 (-150) diff 209.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brendan Donovan Over 0.5 (-165) diff 209.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Emerson Over 0.5 (+105) diff 209.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-102	-127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-160) diff 206.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.336 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/102 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/52 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 32/50 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 62/102 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.70

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 206.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 0.5 (-190) diff 206.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-192	+145	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 0.5 (-180) diff 206.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 0.5 (-180) diff 206.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-179	+134	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colton Cowser Over 0.5 (-130) diff 206.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Franklin Over 0.5 (-192) diff 206.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -192

Selected market: Over 61.7% / Under 38.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (-155) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 0.5 (-140) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Kepler Over 0.5 (-160) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-140) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (-165) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jase Bowen Over 0.5 (-115) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (-175) diff 205.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +149; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.383 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/116 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 38/59 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 78/116 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.63

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Torrens Over 0.5 (-130) diff 198.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 198.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 198.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 198.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 198% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Genao Over 0.5 (-149) diff 198.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 198.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 198.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 198.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 198% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Patrick Bailey Over 0.5 (-130) diff 198.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 198.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 198.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 198.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 198% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 (-165) diff 190.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 190.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.298 (63 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 38 PA | 7/37 | HR 2 | K% 28.9% | BB% 2.6% | OPS .616
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/108 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/52 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 68/108 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 190.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 190.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 190% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 0.5 (-160) diff 185.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 185.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (78 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/114 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/55 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 40/59 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 73/114 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 185.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 185.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 186% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pedro Ramirez Over 0.5 (-155) diff 168.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 168.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.323 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/83 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/42 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 25/41 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 51/83 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 168.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 168.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 169% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Agustín Ramírez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 168.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 168.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.323 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/83 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/42 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 25/41 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 51/83 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 168.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 168.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 169% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (-155) diff 158.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 158.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.513 (33 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 53/103 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 158.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 158.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 158% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (-175) diff 157.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 157.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.216 (68 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 2 | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.073
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/114 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/58 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 74/114 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 157.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 157.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 157% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 (-200) diff 152.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 152.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.294 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 15 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .830
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/113 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.14 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/57 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 37/56 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 78/113 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 152.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 152.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 153% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 0.5 (-160) diff 152.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 152.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 16 PA | 3/16 | HR 0 | K% 31.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.11 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/58 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 37/54 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 75/112 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 152.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 152.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 152% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Over 0.5 (-175) diff 151.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-182	+138	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 151.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.253 (33 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 15 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .420
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 41/54 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 73/108 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 151.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 151.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 151% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 (-160) diff 149.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 149.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/102 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/55 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 58/102 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 149.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 149.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dansby Swanson Over 0.5 (-115) diff 144.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 144.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.379 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/110 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/56 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 57/110 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 144.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 144.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-190) diff 144.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-193	+143	-
Fanatics	0.5	-185	+140	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 144.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.220 (29 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 38 PA | 15/34 | HR 0 | K% 18.4% | BB% 7.9% | OPS 1.003
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/113 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/61 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 35/52 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 71/113 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 144.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 144.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Harry Ford Over 0.5 (-150) diff 142.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 142.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/87 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/42 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 47/87 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 142.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 142.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 (-156) diff 138.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 138.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.195 (25 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/112 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 67/112 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 138.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 138.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (-120) diff 136.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 136.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.248 (81 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 28 PA | 1/25 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 10.7% | OPS .183
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/111 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/56 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 62/111 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 136.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 136.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-180) diff 134.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 134.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.271 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/96 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 25/47 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 49/96 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 134.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 134.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (-150) diff 111.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 111.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.01
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.466 (39 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/110 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter TB: 55/110 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 111.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 111.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+143) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/114 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 55/114 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 55.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 55.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 1.5 (+140) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/114 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 55/114 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 55.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 55.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (-120) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	-
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.84
Base projection 0.84 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.276 (64 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/107 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/52 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter TB: 33/55 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.93 | Day Batter TB: 55/107 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+111) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.429 (132 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 29 PA | 11/24 | HR 1 | K% 20.7% | BB% 13.8% | OPS 1.302
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/105 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 46/105 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-110) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.673 (29 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/94 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 45/94 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-104) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.422 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/114 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter TB: 60/114 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-111) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-109	-119	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.392 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 37 PA | 6/34 | HR 1 | K% 24.3% | BB% 8.1% | OPS .537
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 37 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 46/109 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.23 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 46/109 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-187) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+143	-193	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.08
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.292 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 71/106 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 71/106 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+128) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.268 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.833
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/107 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 48/107 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-119) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-111	-116	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-119	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.451 (59 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 28 PA | 12/28 | HR 1 | K% 10.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.179
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/96 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 19/46 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 45/96 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-103) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.417 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.358 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/113 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 45/113 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+107) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.417 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (49 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/112 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 21/57 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 41/112 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-106) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 19 PA | 5/19 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .526
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/107 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 52/107 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+115) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.465 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.556
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/100 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 40/100 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-116) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 -116; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-116	-111	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.253 (44 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 29 PA | 9/27 | HR 2 | K% 20.7% | BB% 6.9% | OPS 1.009
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/115 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 47/115 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-107) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-103	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.501 (57 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/108 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 49/108 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+120) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.417 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (67 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/112 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 44/112 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Under 1.5 (-190) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.219 (41 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/106 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/55 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 31/51 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 72/106 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-110) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-103	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/114 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/61 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 46/114 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-120) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-112	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-120	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.421 (140 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/111 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 43/111 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-103) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 -103; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-103	-125	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.560 (28 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/113 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/61 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 41/113 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+106) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.584 (66 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/111 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 46/111 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 (+150) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 34 PA | 9/31 | HR 0 | K% 11.8% | BB% 8.8% | OPS .740
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 52/109 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 52/109 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (+120) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 34 PA | 9/31 | HR 0 | K% 11.8% | BB% 8.8% | OPS .740
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 52/109 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 52/109 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+113) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+113	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.316 (128 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 53/109 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 53/109 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+101) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.405 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 15 PA | 5/12 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 43/110 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 43/110 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-128) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-123	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.438 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 34 PA | 11/33 | HR 0 | K% 8.8% | BB% 2.9% | OPS .807
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/112 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 41/112 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (+125) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +126; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Selected
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.488 (59 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/115 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 55/115 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-181) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.357 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 72/103 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/50 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 38/53 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 72/103 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+100) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.234 (55 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 55/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 55/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Under 1.5 (-200) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+149	-200	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 65/87 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/42 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 34/45 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 65/87 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+121) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.376 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 31/80 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/41 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 19/39 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 31/80 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-103) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.383 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 38/91 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 16/42 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 38/91 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+136) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.445 (50 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 32/90 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/43 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 17/47 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 32/90 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Under 1.5 (-207) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -207

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+154	-207	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.214 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/110 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/54 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 63/110 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Under 1.5 (-187) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-220	+165	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 74/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 39/56 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter TB: 74/113 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+113) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.482 (27 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 39 PA | 9/33 | HR 1 | K% 30.8% | BB% 12.8% | OPS .748
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 39 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/104 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 39/104 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+101) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.331 (64 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/113 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 44/113 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-205) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+145	-197	-
DK	1.5	+153	-205	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.284 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .722
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 74/111 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 39/57 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 74/111 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+140) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.288 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/112 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 45/112 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+144) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+144	-192	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.334 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 24 PA | 5/20 | HR 1 | K% 20.8% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.025
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/107 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/52 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 42/107 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 (-183) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-210	+155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	Recommended
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.417 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.226 (34 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 78/109 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+145) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.456 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/108 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 46/108 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Under 1.5 (-175) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.263 (29 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/112 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 28/55 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 60/112 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-151) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.528 (32 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/108 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 69/108 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+140) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.292 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .933 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/112 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 46/112 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 1.5 (+125) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Selected
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 35/84 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 12/36 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 35/84 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-180) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -169 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -169 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.323 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 52/83 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/42 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 26/41 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 52/83 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+131) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.344 (91 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/114 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 48/114 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+131) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.227 (38 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/102 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 45/102 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-101) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.363 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/106 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 42/106 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+124) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +124; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.436 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 35/95 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/48 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 21/47 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 35/95 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+116) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.311 (81 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 42/111 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 0/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.16 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 42/111 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+121) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.361 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/112 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 21/57 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 44/112 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-160) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.365 (115 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/106 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 69/106 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-171) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+129	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.298 (71 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/115 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 76/115 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+130) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.243 (15 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/105 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter TB: 46/105 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+142) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+135) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+128) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+129) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-179) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.368 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/106 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/58 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 60/106 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+102) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+154) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +154

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+154	-207	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+121) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Under 1.5 (-192) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -192

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+144	-192	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.301 (55 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/55 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 36/54 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 67/109 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Under 1.5 (-147) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.398 (130 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 1 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .643
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/106 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/51 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 74/106 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+132) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+122) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randal Grichuk Over 1.5 (+128) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Urias Over 1.5 (+130) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+135) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+117) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (+137) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+101) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (+131) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+111) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.343 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 31/85 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/44 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 14/41 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 31/85 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+118) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (+108) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-139	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+140) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (+150) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alika Williams Over 1.5 (+161) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +161

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+144) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-143) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.224 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/107 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 67/107 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+147) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Under 1.5 (-184) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+137	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/94 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 25/43 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 54/94 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+140) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.366 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/97 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 44/97 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-149) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.436 (53 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/114 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 76/114 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+132) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (+103) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 (+137) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+137	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (+133) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (+119) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-165	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-162) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+121	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.315 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 35 PA | 8/33 | HR 2 | K% 31.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .742
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 35 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 69/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 69/107 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Under 1.5 (-173) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.571 (15 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/110 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/55 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 33/55 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 66/110 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 1.5 (+121) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+128) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (+140) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (+114) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Under 1.5 (-167) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.297 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 23 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 8.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .447
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 68/109 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-215) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
Caesars	1.5	+150	-205	-
DK	1.5	+160	-215	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.410 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/110 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 27/56 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 60/110 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Under 1.5 (-193) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -193

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+144	-193	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.322 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/57 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 72/110 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Under 1.5 (-198) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+147	-198	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.263 (83 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 71/110 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-133) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 19 PA | 7/18 | HR 1 | K% 5.3% | BB% 5.3% | OPS 1.088
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/110 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 75/110 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 (-163) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Robert Jr. Under 1.5 (-180) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 (-164) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Under 1.5 (-169) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.3% / Under 58.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+126	-169	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-165	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (85 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 33 PA | 7/30 | HR 2 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .770
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/110 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 67/110 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Over 0.5 (-180) diff 199.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.732 (29 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 66/113 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/59 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 66/113 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 199% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Petey Halpin Over 0.5 (-110) diff 198.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 198.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 198.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 198% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (-180) diff 169.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 169.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.263 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 50/83 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/43 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 24/40 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 50/83 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 169.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 170% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Over 0.5 (-125) diff 130.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 130.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.131 (13 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/113 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 30/56 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 62/113 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 130.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

▸ Total — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-105) edge 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 7.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -105

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 7.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 7.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-105	-	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	7.5	-114	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-105	-	-
DK	7.5	-105	-	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	7.5	-115	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-105	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: David Peterson (LHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Dylan Cease (RHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs RHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 105)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 97 blended 35% (team 94)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Dylan Cease elite xFIP (2.68)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-112) edge 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -112

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-115	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-115	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-112	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-115	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-110	-	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	7.5	-112	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-115	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-113	-	-
MyBookie	7.5	-115	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-115	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[INJ] Wilber Dotel (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Dustin May (RHP) | opp wRC+ 117 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Braxton Ashcraft (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Braxton Ashcraft elite xFIP (3.27)

▸ F5 Total — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-132) edge 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (F5) | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5	-120	+100	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5	-120	-110	-
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-132	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Truist Park (NEUTRAL)
Martín Pérez xFIP 4.20
Janson Junk xFIP 4.30
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 102)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Martín Pérez (LHP)
Away SP: Janson Junk (RHP)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-140) edge 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5	-115	-105	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5	-120	-110	-
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-140	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (San Diego Padres) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Fernando Sanchez (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Michael Soroka (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Chase Field (NEUTRAL)
Kohl Drake xFIP 4.42
Walker Buehler xFIP 4.28
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 50% (team 98)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.00
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Kohl Drake (LHP)
Away SP: Walker Buehler (RHP)

▸ F5 ML — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Athletics (+145) edge 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds (F5) | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +147 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +145

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +147 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER)
Andrew Abbott xFIP 4.92
Mason Barnett xFIP 4.31
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 50% (team 98)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.0
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Andrew Abbott (LHP)
Away SP: Mason Barnett (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Washington Nationals (+250) edge 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +255 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +250

Own-line consensus: 4 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +255 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[OUT] Nolan Hughes (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Cristopher Sánchez xFIP 2.60
Miles Mikolas xFIP 4.75
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cristopher Sánchez (LHP)
Away SP: Miles Mikolas (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ YRFI — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Small Stake Lean Signal - Small Stake YRFI — YRFI (+128) edge 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +128

Own-line consensus: 4 book(s) N/A

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.521
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0304 after 0.0100 buffer
Nolan McLean / Foster Griffin announced and matched

▸ Batter HR — 188 play(s) (C 188)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 98.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0093
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.276 (64 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 106/107 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/52 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 106/107 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 98.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0094
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.292 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 105/106 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/53 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 53/53 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 105/106 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Petey Halpin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jase Bowen Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Baez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — John Rave Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Davis Schneider Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Shaw Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
INJURY: [IL] Matt Shaw -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: [IL] Matt Shaw -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brenton Doyle Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luisangel Acuna Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randal Grichuk Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brady House Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 90.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0467
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 19 PA | 5/19 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .526
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/107 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/51 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 102/107 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 89.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0522
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.298 (71 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 109/115 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 57/58 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 109/115 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 89.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0566
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.219 (41 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/106 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 100/106 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0545
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.410 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/110 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 104/110 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 89.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0619
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.294 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 15 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .830
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 106/113 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 106/113 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 88.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0556
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.528 (32 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/108 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/54 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 102/108 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 88.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0545
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.466 (39 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 104/110 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 104/110 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 88.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0583
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.357 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/103 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 51/53 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 97/103 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 88.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0619
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.220 (29 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 38 PA | 15/34 | HR 0 | K% 18.4% | BB% 7.9% | OPS 1.003
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 106/113 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/61 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 106/113 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 87.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0638
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 88/94 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 88/94 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 86.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0741
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.253 (33 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 15 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .420
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/108 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/108 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 86.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0686
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 95/102 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 95/102 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 85.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0818
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.214 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/110 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 101/110 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0777
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.513 (33 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 95/103 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 95/103 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 84.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0734
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.297 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 23 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 8.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .447
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/109 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/109 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 84.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0811
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.234 (55 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/111 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 102/111 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 83.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0811
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.284 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .722
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/111 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 102/111 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 83.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0982
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 16 PA | 3/16 | HR 0 | K% 31.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 102/112 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 102/112 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 83.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0804
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.292 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .933 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/112 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 103/112 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 82.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0917
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.301 (55 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/109 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 99/109 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 81.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.571 (15 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 99/110 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 99/110 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 81.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1038
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.368 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/106 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 95/106 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 80.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0965
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.436 (53 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 105/114 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 105/114 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 80.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0826
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.417 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.226 (34 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 100/109 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 100/109 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 80.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0796
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.417 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.358 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 105/113 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 105/113 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 80.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1084
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.263 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 75/83 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 35/40 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 75/83 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1228
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.216 (68 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 2 | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.073
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 100/114 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 100/114 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 78.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1038
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.365 (115 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/106 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 96/106 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-800) diff 78.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1150
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/113 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 102/113 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1228
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (78 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/114 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 103/114 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1205
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.323 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 74/83 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/42 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 74/83 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Agustín Ramírez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 77.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1205
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.323 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 74/83 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/42 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 74/83 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-600) diff 77.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.263 (29 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/112 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 97/112 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 77.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1149
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 78/87 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 78/87 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1182
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.322 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/110 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 98/110 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1237
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.366 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/97 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 37/44 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 86/97 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 75.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.271 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/96 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 84/96 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1293
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.383 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/116 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 102/116 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1273
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (85 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 33 PA | 7/30 | HR 2 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .770
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/110 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 98/110 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1622
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.248 (81 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 28 PA | 1/25 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 10.7% | OPS .183
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/111 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 93/111 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1182
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 19 PA | 7/18 | HR 1 | K% 5.3% | BB% 5.3% | OPS 1.088
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/110 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 98/110 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1308
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.334 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 24 PA | 5/20 | HR 1 | K% 20.8% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.025
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/107 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 93/107 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 73.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1217
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/115 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 102/115 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 73.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1217
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/115 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 102/115 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 73.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1217
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/115 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 102/115 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 73.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1545
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.379 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/110 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 97/110 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1376
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.316 (128 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-600) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1402
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.224 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/107 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 92/107 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 71.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1481
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.456 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 71.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.8% / Under 84.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1416
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.732 (29 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 99/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 99/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-750) diff 71.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1770
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.131 (13 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/113 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 94/113 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 71.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1455
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.263 (83 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 95/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1415
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.398 (130 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 1 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .643
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/106 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 91/106 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 70.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1481
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.298 (63 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 38 PA | 7/37 | HR 2 | K% 28.9% | BB% 2.6% | OPS .616
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/108 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 93/108 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-500) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1354
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.451 (59 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 28 PA | 12/28 | HR 1 | K% 10.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.179
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/96 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 84/96 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-650) diff 69.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1495
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.315 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 35 PA | 8/33 | HR 2 | K% 31.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .742
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 35 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/107 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 91/107 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-750) diff 69.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.584 (66 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 96/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-700) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 72/84 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 29/36 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 72/84 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-700) diff 68.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.438 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 34 PA | 11/33 | HR 0 | K% 8.8% | BB% 2.9% | OPS .807
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 97/112 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 97/112 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1750
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.376 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 68/80 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/41 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 34/39 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 68/80 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 67.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.344 (91 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/114 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 96/114 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-700) diff 67.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1455
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.405 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 15 PA | 5/12 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 96/110 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 96/110 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-500) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.227 (38 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/102 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 87/102 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-700) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1712
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.311 (81 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 93/111 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 93/111 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 65.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1939
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.482 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/98 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 79/98 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 65.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1635
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.482 (27 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 39 PA | 9/33 | HR 1 | K% 30.8% | BB% 12.8% | OPS .748
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 39 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/104 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 88/104 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 65.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1635
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.482 (27 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 39 PA | 9/33 | HR 1 | K% 30.8% | BB% 12.8% | OPS .748
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 39 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/104 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 88/104 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-500) diff 65.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1698
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.363 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/106 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 91/106 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 64.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.417 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (67 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 97/112 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 97/112 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-700) diff 64.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1961
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.336 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/102 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 82/102 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 63.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1743
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 34 PA | 9/31 | HR 0 | K% 11.8% | BB% 8.8% | OPS .740
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 91/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-800) diff 63.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1743
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 34 PA | 9/31 | HR 0 | K% 11.8% | BB% 8.8% | OPS .740
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 91/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-600) diff 63.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1593
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.560 (28 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/113 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/61 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 96/113 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-800) diff 63.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1778
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.445 (50 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/90 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 77/90 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-700) diff 62.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1852
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.501 (57 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/108 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 90/108 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-500) diff 61.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1802
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.421 (140 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 94/111 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 94/111 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-800) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2381
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.243 (15 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/105 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 83/105 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-600) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1895
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.436 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 78/95 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 35/47 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 78/95 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-700) diff 60.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2143
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.361 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/112 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 90/112 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-800) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2261
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.488 (59 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/115 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 92/115 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-600) diff 59.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2124
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.331 (64 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/113 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 91/113 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-500) diff 59.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1915
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.673 (29 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/94 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 77/94 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-700) diff 58.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1900
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.465 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.556
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/100 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 83/100 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-600) diff 57.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2235
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.343 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 67/85 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/44 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 67/85 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-700) diff 56.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2198
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.383 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/91 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 34/42 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 72/91 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 56.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2336
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.442 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/107 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 41/56 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 83/107 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-800) diff 56.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2336
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.442 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/107 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 41/56 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 83/107 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-425) diff 56.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2018
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/114 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/61 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 91/114 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 55.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2150
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.268 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.833
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/107 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 87/107 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 55.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2150
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.268 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.833
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/107 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 87/107 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-600) diff 55.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2150
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.268 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.833
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/107 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 87/107 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-600) diff 55.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2143
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.288 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/112 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 89/112 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-400) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2087
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.253 (44 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 29 PA | 9/27 | HR 2 | K% 20.7% | BB% 6.9% | OPS 1.009
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/115 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 92/115 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 50.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2500
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.550 (56 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 21 PA | 6/19 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 4.8% | OPS .697
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 86/112 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter HR: 86/112 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-600) diff 50.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2054
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.417 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (49 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/112 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 91/112 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-700) diff 50.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2190
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.429 (132 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 29 PA | 11/24 | HR 1 | K% 20.7% | BB% 13.8% | OPS 1.302
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/105 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 83/105 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-500) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2719
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.422 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 86/114 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 86/114 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3070
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/114 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 84/114 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-260) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -260 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -260 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3028
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.392 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 37 PA | 6/34 | HR 1 | K% 24.3% | BB% 8.1% | OPS .537
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 37 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 81/109 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 81/109 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-105	48.9%	67.0%	+18.1%	$+30.87	5	Bet on DK
C	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-112	50.5%	68.6%	+18.0%	$+29.83	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

C Over 7.5 — Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs (Total) +18.1%

[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: David Peterson (LHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Dylan Cease (RHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs RHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 105)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 97 blended 35% (team 94)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Dylan Cease elite xFIP (2.68)

C Over 7.5 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (Total) +18.0%

[INJ] Wilber Dotel (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Dustin May (RHP) | opp wRC+ 117 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Braxton Ashcraft (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Braxton Ashcraft elite xFIP (3.27)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

5 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds (F5)	12:40 PM	F5 ML	Athletics	DK	+145	38.5%	53.0%	+14.6%	$+29.97	5	Bet on DK
B	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles (F5)	12:36 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-122	51.6%	63.3%	+11.7%	$+15.22	3	Bet on DK
C	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5)	6:06 PM	F5 ML	Washington Nationals	DK	+250	26.9%	37.2%	+10.2%	$+30.13	4	Bet on DK
C	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (F5)	7:16 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-132	53.5%	63.6%	+10.2%	$+11.82	2	Bet on DK
C	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-140	54.8%	63.6%	+8.8%	$+9.07	2	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (5 play(s))

C Athletics — Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds (F5) (F5 ML) +14.6%

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER)
Andrew Abbott xFIP 4.92
Mason Barnett xFIP 4.31
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 50% (team 98)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.0
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Andrew Abbott (LHP)
Away SP: Mason Barnett (RHP)

B Under 5.5 — Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles (F5) (F5 Total) +11.7%

[INJ] Fabian Soto (Los Angeles Angels) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Kiefer Lord (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Camden Yards (PITCHER)
Brandon Young xFIP 4.42
Ryan Johnson xFIP 4.80
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 99)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.00
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Brandon Young (RHP)
Away SP: Ryan Johnson (RHP)

C Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) (F5 ML) +10.2%

[OUT] Nolan Hughes (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Cristopher Sánchez xFIP 2.60
Miles Mikolas xFIP 4.75
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cristopher Sánchez (LHP)
Away SP: Miles Mikolas (RHP)

C Under 5.5 — Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (F5) (F5 Total) +10.2%

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Truist Park (NEUTRAL)
Martín Pérez xFIP 4.20
Janson Junk xFIP 4.30
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 102)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Martín Pérez (LHP)
Away SP: Janson Junk (RHP)

C Under 5.5 — San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5) (F5 Total) +8.8%

[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (San Diego Padres) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Fernando Sanchez (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Michael Soroka (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Chase Field (NEUTRAL)
Kohl Drake xFIP 4.42
Walker Buehler xFIP 4.28
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 50% (team 98)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.00
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Kohl Drake (LHP)
Away SP: Walker Buehler (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles

12:36 PM · decision fi-26c8135981222af5

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.2% / YRFI 49.8%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Ryan Johnson · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Brandon Young · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T09:42:44.656828Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.502
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Ryan Johnson / Brandon Young announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.502

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRyan Johnson / Brandon Young announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	+101	-133	46.6%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+112	-148	44.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+106	-136	45.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+110	-140	44.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds

12:40 PM · decision fi-b94843d87ba0ba4c

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.3% / YRFI 48.7%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Mason Barnett · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Andrew Abbott · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T09:42:44.656828Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.513
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Mason Barnett / Andrew Abbott announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.513

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMason Barnett / Andrew Abbott announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-104	-127	47.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-102	-125	47.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians

1:11 PM · decision fi-6b1e3894d1df5ce1

YRFI · Grade C

2026 Model Probability

47.9%

Fair Odds

+109

Best Executable Price

FanDuel +128

Raw / Effective Edge

+4.0% / +3.0%

Away starter: Nolan McLean · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Foster Griffin · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T09:42:44.656828Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.521
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0304 after 0.0100 buffer
Nolan McLean / Foster Griffin announced and matched

Grade C reflects effective edge plus 4 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.521

Executable price · PASSGrade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0304 after 0.0100 buffer

Starter status · PASSNolan McLean / Foster Griffin announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-152	+114	56.3%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-134	+102	53.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-164	+128	58.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers

2:11 PM · decision fi-3d74f38c1514ce5c

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.9% / YRFI 49.1%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Braxton Ashcraft · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Dustin May · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T09:42:44.656828Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.509
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Braxton Ashcraft / Dustin May announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.509

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSBraxton Ashcraft / Dustin May announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-135	+102	53.7%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-143	+108	55.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs

2:21 PM · decision fi-ca8671ed687adf15

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.5% / YRFI 49.5%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Dylan Cease · official_announced · matched

Home starter: David Peterson · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T09:42:44.656828Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.505
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Dylan Cease / David Peterson announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.505

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSDylan Cease / David Peterson announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-147	+110	55.6%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-136	+102	53.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED

Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners

4:11 PM · decision fi-1dc0283b25caf3fc

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.4% / YRFI 48.6%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Framber Valdez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Bryce Miller · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T09:42:44.656828Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.514
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Framber Valdez / Bryce Miller announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.514

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSFramber Valdez / Bryce Miller announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-130	-102	52.8%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-125	-107	51.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies

6:06 PM · decision fi-cacc945451574091

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.9% / YRFI 50.1%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Miles Mikolas · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Cristopher Sánchez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T09:42:44.656828Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.499
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Miles Mikolas / Cristopher Sánchez announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.499

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMiles Mikolas / Cristopher Sánchez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-102	-130	47.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-106	-120	48.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox

7:11 PM · decision fi-8fe6f398eb8d1ddc

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.6% / YRFI 49.4%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Luis Castillo · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Ranger Suarez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T09:42:44.656828Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.506
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Luis Castillo / Ranger Suarez announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.506

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSLuis Castillo / Ranger Suarez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-116	-114	50.2%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-114	-117	49.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves

7:16 PM · decision fi-d3ac9475abeb033f

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.2% / YRFI 49.8%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Janson Junk · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Martín Pérez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T09:42:44.656828Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.502
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Janson Junk / Martín Pérez announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.502

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJanson Junk / Martín Pérez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	+110	-140	44.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals

7:41 PM · decision fi-b7cea4ef4602fff4

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.6% / YRFI 49.4%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Bailey Ober · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Michael Wacha · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T09:42:44.656828Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.506
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Bailey Ober / Michael Wacha announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.506

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSBailey Ober / Michael Wacha announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	+101	-133	46.6%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-103	-130	47.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-118	-108	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks

9:41 PM · decision fi-ce5399d41cc5d600

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.2% / YRFI 49.8%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Walker Buehler · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Kohl Drake · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T09:42:44.656828Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.502
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Walker Buehler / Kohl Drake announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.502

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSWalker Buehler / Kohl Drake announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-104	-127	47.7%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+104	-137	45.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-102	-125	47.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 188 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=188
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	-	Miles Mikolas (R)	theScore Bet	+250	-	39.2%	26.3%	+12.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Janson Junk (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	36.7%	23.1%	+13.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	12:40 PM	-	Mason Barnett (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	36.3%	21.7%	+14.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Willson Contreras	Boston Red Sox	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	-	Luis Castillo (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	35.7%	19.9%	+15.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	12:36 PM	-	Ryan Johnson (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	35.4%	25.6%	+9.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	12:40 PM	-	Mason Barnett (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	34.6%	23.1%	+11.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	JJ Bleday	Cincinnati Reds	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	12:40 PM	-	Mason Barnett (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	34.5%	21.7%	+12.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Wilyer Abreu	Boston Red Sox	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	-	Luis Castillo (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	33.9%	23.1%	+10.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kody Clemens	Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	-	Michael Wacha (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	33.4%	19.9%	+13.5%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	-	Miles Mikolas (R)	theScore Bet	+185	-	33.3%	32.7%	+0.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Janson Junk (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	32.4%	19.9%	+12.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	12:40 PM	-	Andrew Abbott (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	31.2%	23.1%	+8.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Corbin Carroll	Arizona Diamondbacks	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Walker Buehler (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	30.9%	19.1%	+11.8%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Drake Baldwin	Atlanta Braves	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Janson Junk (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	30.3%	19.9%	+10.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	-	Cristopher Sánchez (L)	theScore Bet	+550	-	30.1%	14.1%	+16.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kazuma Okamoto	Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	-	David Peterson (L)	theScore Bet	+320	-	29.8%	21.7%	+8.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	-	Bailey Ober (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	29.5%	23.1%	+6.5%	98	-
Best HR Chance	Manny Machado	San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Kohl Drake (L)	theScore Bet	+320	-	29.4%	21.7%	+7.7%	98	-
Best HR Chance	Julio Rodriguez	Seattle Mariners	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	-	Framber Valdez (L)	theScore Bet	+450	-	28.6%	16.7%	+12.0%	96	-
Strong HR Chance	Brandon Marsh	Philadelphia Phillies	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	-	Miles Mikolas (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	28.5%	19.9%	+8.6%	95	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	100	89.6%	-865	Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, CJ Abrams, Brandon Marsh	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	100	89.0%	-806	Corbin Carroll, Manny Machado, Ketel Marte, Nolan Arenado	Chase Field HR factor 1.02 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	12:36 PM	100	88.7%	-784	Pete Alonso, Josh Lowe, Mike Trout, Gunnar Henderson	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.3%	-
Strong HR Environment	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	12:40 PM	100	88.4%	-761	Sal Stewart, Elly De La Cruz, JJ Bleday, Tyler Soderstrom	Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.6%	-
Watchlist	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	100	85.4%	-587	Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Drake Baldwin, Kyle Stowers	Truist Park HR factor 1.03	-
Watchlist	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	1:11 PM	100	84.7%	-552	Eddy Alvarez, Nathaniel Lowe, Francisco Lindor, Carson Benge	Progressive Field HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	100	84.5%	-547	Kody Clemens, Jac Caglianone, Salvador Perez, Josh Bell	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| Precip chance 68% -- delay/postponement risk	-
Watchlist	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	100	84.5%	-544	Julio Rodriguez, Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson, Randy Arozarena	T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92	-
Watchlist	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	100	83.7%	-515	Jake Bauers, Brandon Lowe, Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio	American Family Field HR factor 1.08	-
Watchlist	Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	100	83.0%	-490	Kazuma Okamoto, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Jesus Sanchez	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05	-
Watchlist	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	100	82.8%	-480	Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, Miguel Vargas	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Bryce Harper — Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (+250) HR chance 39.2% | edge +12.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.209, OPS 0.857, ISO 0.244, TB/G 1.75
Statcast: barrel 11.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.3/113.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.514
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 23/115 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0560, xFIP 4.75, K% 11.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.353, xERA 5.37, whiff 15.4%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 1.009, K% 20.7% (29 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.068, OPS 0.994, ISO 0.324 (295 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Matt Olson — Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (+300) HR chance 36.7% | edge +13.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.272, OPS 0.883, ISO 0.274, TB/G 2.10
Statcast: barrel 14.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.6/111.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.516
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 28/114 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0327, xFIP 4.30, K% 18.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.311, xERA 4.04, whiff 16.6%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.070, OPS 0.931, ISO 0.305 (286 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.422, xwOBA 0.290 (44 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Best HR Chance Sal Stewart — Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds (+320) HR chance 36.3% | edge +14.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.212, OPS 0.812, ISO 0.222, TB/G 1.81
Statcast: barrel 13.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.5/111.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.474
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 22/113 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0398, xFIP 4.51, K% 23.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.308, xERA 3.96, whiff 22.7%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.049, OPS 0.779, ISO 0.222 (369 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.331, xwOBA 0.276 (64 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Willson Contreras — Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox (+360) HR chance 35.7% | edge +15.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.219, OPS 0.935, ISO 0.252, TB/G 1.86
Statcast: barrel 14.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.7/114.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.512
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 22/105 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0375, xFIP 4.55, K% 19.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.337, xERA 4.83, whiff 23.0%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.302, K% 20.7% (29 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.051, OPS 0.913, ISO 0.240 (314 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Pete Alonso — Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles (+260) HR chance 35.4% | edge +9.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.202, OPS 0.801, ISO 0.211, TB/G 1.72
Statcast: barrel 12.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.9/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.514
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 23/114 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0607, xFIP 5.25, K% 17.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.351, xERA 5.30, whiff 24.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.052, OPS 0.856, ISO 0.234 (347 PA)
Park HR factor 1.00

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Best HR Chance Elly De La Cruz — Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds (+300) HR chance 34.6% | edge +11.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.192, OPS 0.855, ISO 0.220, TB/G 1.97
Statcast: barrel 14.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.2/116.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.489
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 17/94 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0398, xFIP 4.51, K% 23.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.308, xERA 3.96, whiff 22.7%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.033, OPS 0.764, ISO 0.175 (304 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.673, xwOBA 0.436 (29 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance JJ Bleday — Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds (+320) HR chance 34.5% | edge +12.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.224, OPS 0.798, ISO 0.232, TB/G 1.62
Statcast: barrel 10.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.7/112.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.458
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 18/85 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0398, xFIP 4.51, K% 23.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.308, xERA 3.96, whiff 22.7%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.053, OPS 0.837, ISO 0.246 (263 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.343, xwOBA 0.282 (39 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Wilyer Abreu — Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox (+300) HR chance 33.9% | edge +10.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.180, OPS 0.787, ISO 0.206, TB/G 1.77
Statcast: barrel 12.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.8/113.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.478
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 17/111 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0375, xFIP 4.55, K% 19.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.337, xERA 4.83, whiff 23.0%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.043, OPS 0.693, ISO 0.198 (328 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch 4-Seam Fastball: xSLG 0.421, xwOBA 0.318 (140 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Steven Kwan	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	1:11 PM	+900	0.4%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Nasim Nunez	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	+1100	0.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Nick Gonzales	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	+700	1.1%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Chase Meidroth	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+700	1.4%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs
Nico Hoerner	Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	+1100	1.5%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal
Josh Naylor	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	+650	1.5%	Lineup not confirmed \| Cold recent HR form
Alex Bregman	Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	+600	1.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal
Xavier Edwards	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+750	1.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Cold recent HR form
Isaac Collins	Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	+550	1.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Taylor Ward	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	+550	1.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	Ranger Suarez	Luis Castillo	0.95	17.2%	47.5%	-	+0.0%
Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	David Peterson	Dylan Cease	1.05	17.0%	47.0%	-	+0.0%
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	Dustin May	Braxton Ashcraft	1.08	16.3%	45.8%	-	+0.0%
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	Bryce Miller	Framber Valdez	0.92	15.5%	44.4%	-	+0.0%
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	Michael Wacha	Bailey Ober	0.93	15.4%	44.3%	-	+0.0%
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	1:11 PM	Foster Griffin	Nolan McLean	0.95	15.3%	44.1%	-	+0.0%
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	Martín Pérez	Janson Junk	1.03	14.6%	42.6%	-	+0.0%
Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	12:40 PM	Andrew Abbott	Mason Barnett	1.15	11.6%	36.6%	-	+0.0%
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	12:36 PM	Brandon Young	Ryan Johnson	1.00	11.3%	36.0%	-	+0.0%
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Kohl Drake	Walker Buehler	1.02	11.0%	35.4%	-	+0.0%
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	Cristopher Sánchez	Miles Mikolas	1.10	10.4%	33.9%	-	+0.0%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

22 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs	74.3	78.5	77.5	6	Changeup (54% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 35.0%, put-away 24.7%, xwOBA 0.260, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	66.5	72.9	65.5	3	Changeup (46% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 31.7%, put-away 25.8%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers	66.4	55.4	80.0	7	Split-Finger (35% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.255, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	60.6	59.5	64.5	5	Curveball (40% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 23.4%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	57.4	54.1	64.5	6	Curveball (44% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 22.9%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians	57.1	59.0	61.0	7	Curveball (40% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Mason Barnett	Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds	51.4	50.8	53.5	5	Slider (31% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Dustin May	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	51.1	49.5	54.5	6	Sweeper (31% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets	50.3	50.7	51.5	7	Sweeper (34% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels	47.0	48.3	47.5	5	Slider (42% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	47.0	44.3	50.5	6	Changeup (29% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners	45.4	42.9	47.5	5	Curveball (32% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	43.5	32.3	52.0	6	Changeup (29% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 16.6%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics	43.4	44.0	41.0	5	Changeup (37% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	43.4	41.7	45.0	7	Slider (29% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	43.2	39.5	45.0	6	Sweeper (39% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles	43.0	46.3	32.0	4	Split-Finger (35% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Martín Pérez	Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins	42.9	41.6	45.5	5	Changeup (34% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Luis Castillo	Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox	42.8	43.9	39.0	4	4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays	41.2	44.0	36.0	5	Curveball (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Miles Mikolas	Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies	31.6	26.5	31.0	6	Curveball (23% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 15.4%, put-away 11.9%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kohl Drake	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	27.6	53.0	0.0	5	Changeup (38% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.417, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

22 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Kohl Drake	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	L	21.5%	4.3	4.3	5.1	72	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Mason Barnett	Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds	R	19.8%	2.4	5.0	5.0	40	short	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Martín Pérez	Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins	L	17.1%	5.0	5.2	5.1	84	short	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels	R	20.2%	6.1	5.7	5.8	102	deep	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	L	27.3%	4.5	5.3	5.1	76	short	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	18.3%	5.1	5.0	5.0	86	short	full	36.00	64.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Luis Castillo	Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox	R	17.3%	5.8	5.2	5.3	97	normal	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics	L	18.5%	5.4	5.3	5.3	91	normal	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets	L	19.5%	6.1	5.9	5.9	102	deep	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners	L	17.8%	6.0	5.5	5.6	101	deep	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	R	20.4%	5.8	6.3	6.2	97	normal	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles	R	19.4%	4.2	4.6	4.6	70	short	full	32.00	68.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	R	18.8%	4.6	5.2	5.1	77	short	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Dustin May	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	24.1%	4.8	5.2	5.1	80	short	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	R	17.4%	4.9	5.4	5.3	82	short	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians	R	28.2%	6.0	5.7	6.0	101	deep	full	61.00	39.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	L	26.9%	5.4	6.3	6.1	91	normal	full	65.50	34.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	25.2%	4.8	5.8	5.6	80	short	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	18.5%	4.3	4.7	4.7	72	short	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers	R	22.5%	5.5	5.8	5.7	92	normal	full	80.00	20.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs	R	35.7%	7.2	6.0	6.2	121	deep	full	77.50	22.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Miles Mikolas	Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	10.4%	4.6	4.8	4.8	77	short	full	31.00	69.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

10/10 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Andrew Abbott	Andrew Abbott Under	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	17.5	14.9	-2.6	14.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.3	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.59 <= 3 min
Dylan Cease	Dylan Cease Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs	18.5	21.1	2.5	13.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	121	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.55 <= 3 min
Nolan McLean	Nolan McLean Over	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	18.8	1.3	7.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Braxton Ashcraft	Braxton Ashcraft Under	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	16.5	-0.9	5.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.6	80	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Cristopher Sanchez	Cristopher Sanchez Over	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	19.5	20.5	1.0	5.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.1	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 19.5
Cristopher Sánchez	Cristopher Sánchez Over	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	19.5	20.5	1.0	5.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.1	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 19.5
Brandon Young	Brandon Young Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	18.1	0.6	3.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryce Miller	Bryce Miller Over	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	18.0	0.5	2.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Framber Valdez	Framber Valdez Under	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.6	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Michael Wacha	Michael Wacha Under	Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	18.5	18.5	-0.0	0.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.2	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

170 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.58	1.07	0.67	0.84	2.44 / Over	0.35	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Josh Lowe	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.51	1.34	0.59	0.59	2.39 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Francisco Alvarez	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	Over 1.5	2.48	1.47	0.51	0.51	2.62 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Drake Baldwin	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.44	1.05	0.71	0.68	2.36 / Over	0.35	season_games=91,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.43	1.29	0.66	0.49	2.22 / Over	0.35	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Sal Stewart	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.42	0.96	0.60	0.85	2.18 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Matt Olson	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.39	1.03	0.72	0.64	2.29 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Willson Contreras	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	2.28	1.00	0.57	0.70	2.54 / Over	0.35	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nathaniel Lowe	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	Over 1.5	2.27	1.34	0.46	0.46	2.39 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Ceddanne Rafaela	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	2.26	1.12	0.56	0.57	2.22 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ozzie Albies	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.26	1.01	0.66	0.58	2.13 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jackson Chourio	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.21	1.13	0.61	0.48	2.19 / Over	0.35	season_games=80,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.21	1.16	0.55	0.49	2.53 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ketel Marte	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.20	1.01	0.58	0.61	2.21 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	2.20	0.87	0.70	0.63	2.00 / Over	0.35	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Hector Rodriguez	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.19	1.17	0.51	0.51	2.08 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.17	1.04	0.60	0.53	2.08 / Over	0.35	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.17	1.00	0.57	0.59	2.39 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brice Turang	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.15	1.02	0.58	0.56	2.20 / Over	0.35	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Bobby Witt Jr.	Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	Over 1.5	2.15	1.11	0.58	0.46	2.26 / Over	0.35	season_games=96,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Seiya Suzuki	Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.14	1.00	0.57	0.57	2.05 / Over	0.35	season_games=98,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	Over 1.5	2.13	1.00	0.51	0.62	1.93 / Over	0.35	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Zach Neto	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.12	0.90	0.73	0.48	1.96 / Over	0.35	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.11	0.88	0.75	0.48	1.99 / Over	0.35	season_games=95,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon Marsh	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.10	1.04	0.56	0.50	2.25 / Over	0.35	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes